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retrofade

Democrat Thunderdome - 2020 Democratic Candidate Thread

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5 minutes ago, retrofade said:

Wow, they usually hold those kind of hit pieces in their back pockets for Klobuchar and Beto. I just read the whole article, and it looks like the main issue is what's starting to drive the Democrats further apart... progressivism vs. neoliberalism. That being said, it was pretty damn low class, but not unlike some of the other ones I've seen in the last few months... just the first about Buttigieg. 

It reads like a troll roast post. If this is where we’re headed :shots:

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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After the "draft" show CNN put on the other night, this is where we stand for night one and night two for the second debates:

Night One - July 30th 

  • Steve Bullock
  • Pete Buttigieg
  • John Delaney 
  • John Hickenlooper
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Beto O'Rourke 
  • Tim Ryan
  • Bernie Sanders
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Marianne Williamson

Night Two - July 31st

  • Joe Biden
  • Michael Bennet
  • Senator Cory Booker
  • Bill de Blasio
  • Julian Castro
  • Tulsi Gabbard
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Kamala Harris
  • Jay Inslee
  • Andrew Yang

That made for a much more even split of the top polling candidates than the NBC debates last month. I'm really interested in seeing Bernie and Warren battle it out over whose brand of progressivism is the "right" one. Beto vs. Buttigieg should be really interesting as well. I think it's likely to see Klobuchar swing for the fences as she tries to get her polling numbers high enough to qualify for the third debate. Castro and Yang (if they let him talk) are going to be in similar positions on night two. I'm also expecting Biden to punch back at Harris for her attacks on him in the last debate, especially since she tried to walk them back the next day. 

Oh, and since I mentioned the third debate, here's who has qualified for that one so far.

  • Joe Biden
  • Pete Buttigieg
  • Kamala Harris
  • Beto O'Rourke
  • Bernie Sanders
  • Elizabeth Warren

To qualify for the third debate, candidates need to poll at least 2% in four separate approved polls taken between the end of June and the end of August. In addition, they need to have received donations from 130,000 unique donors, including at least 400 in 20 different states. Castro and Yang have met the donor requirements, while Booker has met the polling requirement.  

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On 7/19/2019 at 4:19 AM, thelawlorfaithful said:

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Wait... Bernie is a hypocrite? I never would have guessed.

In other news...

 

Warren said she pays her staff $42,000/yr, but wouldn't say how many hours they work. Buttigieg pays the same as Warren, but requires 50 hour work weeks, which equates out to $16/hr. 

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1 hour ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

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I don't think he really had any choice but to capitulate to their demands... not with the debate coming up on the 30th and with three other candidates on the stage with him paying their staff $15/hr at minimum. 

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Bernie's ass is now new-mowed grass.

Same for Beto. And except for Buttigieg, nobody else in that group has ever registered more than a blip in the polls. Therefore, Warren has once again lucked out with regard to who she'll be on stage with. So I think HER day won't come until in the third debate.

Warren will never drop like a rock because she continues to be a poor woman's Hillary and that's as close to having a Trumpian base as it gets for a Democrat. But I just can't see her getting past the primary since there are too many of us who'll be damned if we're going to just turn the general election over to Trump by nominating her.

Finally, I wonder what un-bigoted and extremely Christian name Trump will have for Castro if, as I suspect, he begins really moving up in the polls.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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1 minute ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

Bernie's ass is now new-mowed grass.

Same for Beto. And except for Buttigieg, nobody else in that group has ever registered more than a blip in the polls. Therefore, Warren has once again lucked out with regard to who she'll be on stage with. So I think HER day won't come until in the third debate.

Warren will never drop like a rock because she continues to be a poor woman's Hillary and that's as close to having a Trumpian base as it gets for a Democrat. But I just can't see her getting past the primary since there are too many of us who'll be damned if we're going to just turn the general election over to Trump by nominating her.

Finally, I wonder what un-bigoted and extremely Christian name Trump will have for Castro if, as I suspect, he begins really moving up in the polls.

I'll disagree on Beto, simply because he's polled as high as 10-15% at times. He's in the same boat as Buttigieg, and are both polling about the same these days. If either one of them can pull off a breakout moment in debate #2 (or even #3 since they're both qualified), they can move up. Never count out the people polling in the single digits at this point... the 2016 GOP cycle gave us Trump from that range, and the 2008 GOP cycle gave us McCain. Obama was polling a distant 2nd to Hillary at this point in 2007, though his raw numbers looked a lot better because there were less people in the running. That all being said, I do think that Bernie is toast... he's got people jumping ship to Warren because they think she's more electable than he is, especially since she's defined herself as a capitalist with a desire to channel Teddy Roosevelt. As far as Castro goes, I would be shocked if he jumped up much further than he is before the 3rd debate, if he can make it that far. His polling and donation numbers look like he has an outside shot at it, along with Klobuchar, Booker, and even Yang. 

This is what I think the 3rd debate could look like if all of the candidates capable of qualifying end up doing so:

  • Biden
  • Beto
  • Booker
  • Buttigieg
  • Castro
  • Harris
  • Klobuchar
  • Sanders
  • Warren
  • Yang

 

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36 minutes ago, retrofade said:

I don't think he really had any choice but to capitulate to their demands... not with the debate coming up on the 30th and with three other candidates on the stage with him paying their staff $15/hr at minimum. 

Of course he didn’t. You can’t sell your schlock to the masses without delivering the real thing to the inner circle, that never works. Every good socialist knows that.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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2 hours ago, retrofade said:

I'll disagree on Beto, simply because he's polled as high as 10-15% at times. He's in the same boat as Buttigieg, and are both polling about the same these days. If either one of them can pull off a breakout moment in debate #2 (or even #3 since they're both qualified), they can move up. Never count out the people polling in the single digits at this point... the 2016 GOP cycle gave us Trump from that range, and the 2008 GOP cycle gave us McCain. Obama was polling a distant 2nd to Hillary at this point in 2007, though his raw numbers looked a lot better because there were less people in the running. That all being said, I do think that Bernie is toast... he's got people jumping ship to Warren because they think she's more electable than he is, especially since she's defined herself as a capitalist with a desire to channel Teddy Roosevelt. As far as Castro goes, I would be shocked if he jumped up much further than he is before the 3rd debate, if he can make it that far. His polling and donation numbers look like he has an outside shot at it, along with Klobuchar, Booker, and even Yang. 

This is what I think the 3rd debate could look like if all of the candidates capable of qualifying end up doing so:

  • Biden
  • Beto
  • Booker
  • Buttigieg
  • Castro
  • Harris
  • Klobuchar
  • Sanders
  • Warren
  • Yang

Yang is plenty smart and has some good ideas but he's much too passive to get to double digits and somebody needs to get the guy to wear an effing suit to the next debate.

Klobuchar's only chance is if polling begins to show that only a moderate can realistically defeat Trump.

I don't understand why Booker hasn't made more of a mark and wonder whether others might see him like I do as too much of an Obama 2.0. Contrary to so many here, I thought Obama was a good president overall but just as I don't think a Hillary 2.0 can beat Trump, I don't see an Obama 2.0 doing so either.

Buttigieg reminds me of my TV producer neighbor across the street. Very smart and very friendly but there's a reason my neighbor is always behind the camera not in front of it.

So of those you mention, at this point in alphabetical order my favorites are Biden, Castro, Harris and Klobuchar.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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Guest #1Stunner
On 7/19/2019 at 10:33 AM, Bruin 70 said:

this next debate should be interesting. Maybe they should let the Squad moderate. Anything would be better than the softball throwing CNN lobbies.

Hopefully CNN doesn't try to silence certain candidates again.   Ridiculous that they cut the microphones of some, and then allowed others to speak unabated..

Also....what's the over / under that one of the participants will be called a racist during the second debate.

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5 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

Hopefully CNN doesn't try to silence certain candidates again.   Ridiculous that they cut the microphones of some, and then allowed others to speak unabated..

Also....what's the over / under that one of the participants will be called a racist during the second debate.

It was NBC that blocked off Yang, but yes, I hope that CNN won't do the same thing.

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5 hours ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

Yang is plenty smart and has some good ideas but he's much too passive to get to double digits and somebody needs to get the guy to wear an effing suit to the next debate.

Klobuchar's only chance is if polling begins to show that only a moderate can realistically defeat Trump.

I don't understand why Booker hasn't made more of a mark and wonder whether others might see him like I do as too much of an Obama 2.0. Contrary to so many here, I thought Obama was a good president overall but just as I don't think a Hillary 2.0 can beat Trump, I don't see an Obama 2.0 doing so either.

Buttigieg reminds me of my TV producer neighbor across the street. Very smart and very friendly but there's a reason my neighbor is always behind the camera not in front of it.

So of those you mention, at this point in alphabetical order my favorites are Biden, Castro, Harris and Klobuchar.

Booker just doesn't have a broad appeal, and his sweeping gun confiscation policy proposal is turning off moderate Democrats. 

As of right now, my favorites are Beto, Klobuchar, Yang, and Warren. I'm not a huge fan of Warren, but I like her more than the other ones that I think have a chance of making the stage for the third debate. 

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1 hour ago, retrofade said:

Booker just doesn't have a broad appeal, and his sweeping gun confiscation policy proposal is turning off moderate Democrats. 

As of right now, my favorites are Beto, Klobuchar, Yang, and Warren. I'm not a huge fan of Warren, but I like her more than the other ones that I think have a chance of making the stage for the third debate. 

Do you think anybody outside of Biden, Warren, Bernie, Kamala, and Mayor Pete has a legit chance anymore at this point?

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3 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Do you think anybody outside of Biden, Warren, Bernie, Kamala, and Mayor Pete has a legit chance anymore at this point?

I'll add Beto to that list. Past that, I'll go with Klobuchar as having an outside chance.

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9 minutes ago, retrofade said:

I'll add Beto to that list. Past that, I'll go with Klobuchar as having an outside chance.

I think Beto is in a group of candidates where they are done unless they get a Hail Mary viral debate moment on July 30 or 31. I’d say Booker, Castro, Yang, Gabbard, and maybe a few others are there as well. But if that doesn’t happen I think we are down to a 5 person race; and even then I could see the big 4 candidates picking up almost all the supporters of the candidates that drop out leaving Mayor Pete as another candidate with no shot. 

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32 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I think Beto is in a group of candidates where they are done unless they get a Hail Mary viral debate moment on July 30 or 31. I’d say Booker, Castro, Yang, Gabbard, and maybe a few others are there as well. But if that doesn’t happen I think we are down to a 5 person race; and even then I could see the big 4 candidates picking up almost all the supporters of the candidates that drop out leaving Mayor Pete as another candidate with no shot. 

This is how I gauge it too. The Democrats would be better served pairing down the debates, but if they want these also rans lobbing grenades at their strongest candidates that’s their choice. There’s nothing good that can come from a Castro or Beto landing a punch when a five point bump from it will still leave them as cannon fodder.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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1 hour ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I think Beto is in a group of candidates where they are done unless they get a Hail Mary viral debate moment on July 30 or 31. I’d say Booker, Castro, Yang, Gabbard, and maybe a few others are there as well. But if that doesn’t happen I think we are down to a 5 person race; and even then I could see the big 4 candidates picking up almost all the supporters of the candidates that drop out leaving Mayor Pete as another candidate with no shot. 

 

28 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

This is how I gauge it too. The Democrats would be better served pairing down the debates, but if they want these also rans lobbing grenades at their strongest candidates that’s their choice. There’s nothing good that can come from a Castro or Beto landing a punch when a five point bump from it will still leave them as cannon fodder.

That is how you get Trump as your party nominee.

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