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bluerules009

Does anyone think UCF would win either the Mountain or the West divisions

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Yeah, if you look at the computers, UCF's best wins are against Pitt and Cincinnati, who are both ranked around 40 in most rankings. USU, BSU, and FSU are all top 25 or so. If I were going to argue that BSU should get a NY6 over UCF, I would say that BSU beat 3 top 25 teams whereas UCF beat 0. (This is assuming BSU wins the CCG.) To be clear, a UCF team that went undefeated two years will (and probably should) get the NY6 bid. But I don't think it's as clear-cut as popularly believed. Nate Silver had an article saying basically that BSU and USU are both better than UCF based on computer models.

To answer the question in the OP, UCF certainly could win either division of the MWC, but that doesn't mean they would. The computers say that UCF versus any of the top 3 MWC teams would basically be a coin flip on a neutral field (with perhaps UCF as a slight favorite). They could win either division, but it wouldn't be easy. You can argue that the AAC is stronger from top to bottom than the MWC, but the MWC is definitely stronger at the top.

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3 minutes ago, StanfordAggie said:

Yeah, if you look at the computers, UCF's best wins are against Pitt and Cincinnati, who are both ranked around 40 in most rankings. USU, BSU, and FSU are all top 25 or so. If I were going to argue that BSU should get a NY6 over UCF, I would say that BSU beat 3 top 25 teams whereas UCF beat 0. (This is assuming BSU wins the CCG.) To be clear, a UCF team that went undefeated two years will (and probably should) get the NY6 bid. But I don't think it's as clear-cut as popularly believed. Nate Silver had an article saying basically that BSU and USU are both better than UCF based on computer models.

To answer the question in the OP, UCF certainly could win either division of the MWC, but that doesn't mean they would. The computers say that UCF versus any of the top 3 MWC teams would basically be a coin flip on a neutral field (with perhaps UCF as a slight favorite). They could win either division, but it wouldn't be easy. You can argue that the AAC is stronger from top to bottom than the MWC, but the MWC is definitely stronger at the top.

And yet the Massey Composite, which is pretty much all of the computer rankings, has UCF #8 and Boise State #20:shrug:

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7 hours ago, bluerules009 said:

They really don't look that impressive and that was before they lost their QB.

Zero defense against a really weak schedule.

The Big Sky champ would win that league.

Does would mean hands down win either?  Or does it mean, could they?

It is certainly not automatic.  Would they be in the running, sure.

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Wins against PITT, Cincy, Temple, and Memphis are pretty impressive.

The AAC took care of business ooc while the MWC got beat in games that mattered. I do think UCF would be ranked and going to the conference championship game if they were in either MW division.

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7 minutes ago, renoskier said:

And yet the Massey Composite, which is pretty much all of the computer rankings, has UCF #8 and Boise State #20:shrug:

I just looked at a handful of models that are designed to pick point spreads (which are usually the best predictors of who will win future games). Every model said UCF would be either a coin flip or a thin favorite versus any of the top 3 MWC teams on a neutral field.

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30 minutes ago, happycamper said:

Blues, are you saying we should invite UCF?

Road trip

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21 minutes ago, StanfordAggie said:

I just looked at a handful of models that are designed to pick point spreads (which are usually the best predictors of who will win future games). Every model said UCF would be either a coin flip or a thin favorite versus any of the top 3 MWC teams on a neutral field.

Right, a slight favorite. That's exactly what you'd expect from an #8 vs #20 at a neutral site.

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48 minutes ago, alum93 said:

Of the people replying, how many took the time to watch 6 or 7 UCF games min this year?  How many watched the Auburn bowl win?  How many watched last year's UCF regular season games?  A team that went back to back undefeated seasons, won multiple P5 games, and is top 15 again would be favored to win the MWC.  Put it another way, if Boise or Fresno had done the same exact thing and was on a 20+ winning streak and knocked off an SEC top team in a bowl game,  would you be questioning if they could win the AAC?

I saw many, many UCF games this year and last, but I fail to see what last year has to do with this year. 

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How was Pitt a good win? Because they gave Notre Dame a good game? They went 7-5. 

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2 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

How was Pitt a good win? Because they gave Notre Dame a good game? They went 7-5. 

It's the best win of any G5 team this year, I believe :(

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6 minutes ago, happycamper said:

It's the best win of any G5 team this year, I believe :(

SDSU's Arizona State win was just as good IMO. Pitt lost to North Carolina for +++++'s sake. 

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1 minute ago, Joe from WY said:

SDSU's Arizona State win was just as good IMO. Pitt lost to North Carolina for +++++'s sake. 

I forgot about ASU, you're right. Thanks 'tecs. 

That said... man it feels like the power/mid major gap has really widened in just the last 10 years. money.

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1 hour ago, alum93 said:

Of the people replying, how many took the time to watch 6 or 7 UCF games min this year?  How many watched the Auburn bowl win?  How many watched last year's UCF regular season games?  A team that went back to back undefeated seasons, won multiple P5 games, and is top 15 again would be favored to win the MWC.  Put it another way, if Boise or Fresno had done the same exact thing and was on a 20+ winning streak and knocked off an SEC top team in a bowl game,  would you be questioning if they could win the AAC?

You have to just leave last year out of the argument. They don't seem to be very good on Defense this year. High octane Offense/Bad Defensive teams are really unpredictable.

I would love to have a shot at them, and would be interested to see what Fresno would do with them. 

I think they would contend in either Division, but again, how would they do up against a good, physical Defense that gets after the QB? 

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Honestly, eyeball test tells me they win the west for sure, and are 50/50 with the mountain

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1 hour ago, renoskier said:

And yet the Massey Composite, which is pretty much all of the computer rankings, has UCF #8 and Boise State #20:shrug:

The Massey Composite also includes the human polls, and not all computer polls are created equal.

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