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bluerules009

Does anyone think UCF would win either the Mountain or the West divisions

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To be fair their win against Pitt was better than any MW win OOC (maybe SDSU's win against ASU was better). I just don't see the MW's argument this year. We have some good teams at the top, but ultimately they all lost to mediocre P5 teams OOC.

If USU beat Michigan State, Boise State beat Oklahoma State, and/or Fresno State beat Minnesota we would have a much better argument. But the fact is UCF took care of business OOC (while our top 3 all lost to 6-6/7-5 P5 teams), and won a conference that is on par or better than the MW. They easily deserve it this year, I just don't see how you could argue otherwise.

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2 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

Maybe the fact they haven't won anything yet? 

 

Yes true, obviously if they lose the championship game the winner of the MW will go. But if they beat Memphis, I don't see how you could argue that anyone else is more deserving. 

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The aac is way overrated this year, UCF took care of business in a weak conference. They beat Memphis the first time with some help from the refs. If they were to play the Lobos conference schedule this year: SUDS, FSU, plus mountain division, UCF would have lost a game or two.

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3 hours ago, bigd said:

Yes true, obviously if they lose the championship game the winner of the MW will go. But if they beat Memphis, I don't see how you could argue that anyone else is more deserving.  

We'd spank their poser asses...

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3 hours ago, bigd said:

Yes true, obviously if they lose the championship game the winner of the MW will go. But if they beat Memphis, I don't see how you could argue that anyone else is more deserving. 

2 years without a loss is an accomplishment no matter what conference.  They are a really good football team. 

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4 minutes ago, slappy said:

2 years without a loss is an accomplishment no matter what conference.  They are a really good football team. 

Yep. It's hard to do, for sure. Boise made it about as far as they have before the 2011 Nevada game. Almost two full seasons.

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4 hours ago, bigd said:

To be fair their win against Pitt was better than any MW win OOC (maybe SDSU's win against ASU was better). I just don't see the MW's argument this year. We have some good teams at the top, but ultimately they all lost to mediocre P5 teams OOC.

If USU beat Michigan State, Boise State beat Oklahoma State, and/or Fresno State beat Minnesota we would have a much better argument. But the fact is UCF took care of business OOC (while our top 3 all lost to 6-6/7-5 P5 teams), and won a conference that is on par or better than the MW. They easily deserve it this year, I just don't see how you could argue otherwise.

This ^^^, plus the Big Sky Champ would have a losing league record in the AAC or MWC.

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1 hour ago, Dimwhit said:

Maybe. They'd certainly be one of the better teams. But I think our Top 3 teams could beat them. 

I would be the first to admit that I am a huge MWC Homer ( shameless )but,  i would suggest multiple  wins vs. UCF ie:

BSU, USU, SUDS, UNR, probably Wyoming and even Fresno would have little trouble wit UCF even with their starting QB.

Just sayin'

:rock:well , maybe not Fresno  ... :secret:

 

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Living here in Florida and watching a lot of their games, I think they would beat our top teams. They have a potent offense.  This is, of course, before their quarterback got hurt. Their quarterback will be be drafted assuming he makes a full recovery.

SDSU Alum

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6 hours ago, bluerules009 said:

They really don't look that impressive and that was before they lost their QB.

Zero defense against a really weak schedule.

The Big Sky champ would win that league.

Unlikely this year.. They would struggle to win both divisions this year. I think last  year, they would have had a chance to win the league.

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1 hour ago, Sputnik46 said:

This ^^^, plus the Big Sky Champ would have a losing league record in the AAC or MWC.

 

5 hours ago, bigd said:

To be fair their win against Pitt was better than any MW win OOC (maybe SDSU's win against ASU was better). I just don't see the MW's argument this year. We have some good teams at the top, but ultimately they all lost to mediocre P5 teams OOC.

If USU beat Michigan State, Boise State beat Oklahoma State, and/or Fresno State beat Minnesota we would have a much better argument. But the fact is UCF took care of business OOC (while our top 3 all lost to 6-6/7-5 P5 teams), and won a conference that is on par or better than the MW. They easily deserve it this year, I just don't see how you could argue otherwise.

No, Boise's wins over Fresno, and Utah State are better than that win over Pitt. SDSU's wins over Boise and ASU are better than that win as well.

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Of the people replying, how many took the time to watch 6 or 7 UCF games min this year?  How many watched the Auburn bowl win?  How many watched last year's UCF regular season games?  A team that went back to back undefeated seasons, won multiple P5 games, and is top 15 again would be favored to win the MWC.  Put it another way, if Boise or Fresno had done the same exact thing and was on a 20+ winning streak and knocked off an SEC top team in a bowl game,  would you be questioning if they could win the AAC?

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Yeah, if you look at the computers, UCF's best wins are against Pitt and Cincinnati, who are both ranked around 40 in most rankings. USU, BSU, and FSU are all top 25 or so. If I were going to argue that BSU should get a NY6 over UCF, I would say that BSU beat 3 top 25 teams whereas UCF beat 0. (This is assuming BSU wins the CCG.) To be clear, a UCF team that went undefeated two years will (and probably should) get the NY6 bid. But I don't think it's as clear-cut as popularly believed. Nate Silver had an article saying basically that BSU and USU are both better than UCF based on computer models.

To answer the question in the OP, UCF certainly could win either division of the MWC, but that doesn't mean they would. The computers say that UCF versus any of the top 3 MWC teams would basically be a coin flip on a neutral field (with perhaps UCF as a slight favorite). They could win either division, but it wouldn't be easy. You can argue that the AAC is stronger from top to bottom than the MWC, but the MWC is definitely stronger at the top.

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3 minutes ago, StanfordAggie said:

Yeah, if you look at the computers, UCF's best wins are against Pitt and Cincinnati, who are both ranked around 40 in most rankings. USU, BSU, and FSU are all top 25 or so. If I were going to argue that BSU should get a NY6 over UCF, I would say that BSU beat 3 top 25 teams whereas UCF beat 0. (This is assuming BSU wins the CCG.) To be clear, a UCF team that went undefeated two years will (and probably should) get the NY6 bid. But I don't think it's as clear-cut as popularly believed. Nate Silver had an article saying basically that BSU and USU are both better than UCF based on computer models.

To answer the question in the OP, UCF certainly could win either division of the MWC, but that doesn't mean they would. The computers say that UCF versus any of the top 3 MWC teams would basically be a coin flip on a neutral field (with perhaps UCF as a slight favorite). They could win either division, but it wouldn't be easy. You can argue that the AAC is stronger from top to bottom than the MWC, but the MWC is definitely stronger at the top.

And yet the Massey Composite, which is pretty much all of the computer rankings, has UCF #8 and Boise State #20:shrug:

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