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Spot50B

Cheez-It Bowl Seems Unlikely

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I've read a number of posts that mention that the MWC should be able to place a team in the Cheez-It Bowl in Phoenix (formerly the Cactus Bowl).  While horse trading of bowls is allowed between conferences, I think that it is unlikely that we land a team there because the PAC-12 and BIG-12 have enough teams to fill their bowl obligation, even if Oklahoma makes it to the playoff.

The game is between the PAC-12 #7 and the BIG-12 #6.  The PAC-12 and BIG-12 both have 7 bowl-eligible teams this year. 

Here are the prioritized bowl affiliations for each conference this year:

BIG-12

  1. Sugar Bowl vs. SEC
  2. Alamo Bowl vs. PAC-12
  3. Camping World Bowl vs. ACC
  4. Texas Bowl vs. SEC
  5. Liberty Bowl vs. SEC
  6. Cheez-It Bowl vs PAC-12
  7. Armed Forces Bowl vs American

PAC-12

  1. Rose Bowl vs. Big Ten
  2. Alamo Bowl vs. BIG-12
  3. Holiday Bowl vs. Big Ten
  4. San Francisco Bowl vs. Big Ten
  5. Sun Bowl vs. ACC
  6. Las Vegas Bowl vs. Mountain West
  7. Cheez-It Bowl vs. BIG-12

The PAC-12 has no chance of making the playoff, so they will be set with their seven teams.  Even if Oklahoma makes the playoff, the BIG-12 will be able to fill the Cheez-It bowl obligation because it is #6 in priority.  There are more bowl-eligible teams than there are bowl slots this year so power conferences are not going to have much ability to "trade up" for better bowl matches.  It also seems unlikely that the BIG-12 would forego their spot in the Cheez-It Bowl in favor of the next one on the list (Armed Forces) as the Cheez-It match-up is between two power schools while the Armed Forces game is not (if this is even allowed; some conferences allow more fluidity between order of bowl preference than others).

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Jerry Palm somehow has SDSU in the Cheez-It against Baylor: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

If the Aztecs are chosen for that bowl, it will be well undeserved.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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2 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Jerry Palm somehow has SDSU in the Cheez-It against Baylor: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

If the Aztecs are chosen for that bowl, it will be well undeserved.

 

All football fans will be Aztecs if that matchup happens. Baylor's rotten to the core.

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4 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Jerry Palm somehow has SDSU in the Cheez-It against Baylor: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

If the Aztecs are chosen for that bowl, it will be well undeserved.

I was hoping USU would get that bowl. Would love to play in warm weather against a P5 opponent. 

There are only two things I can't stand in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures and the Dutch. 

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3 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Jerry Palm somehow has SDSU in the Cheez-It against Baylor: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

If the Aztecs are chosen for that bowl, it will be well undeserved.

He probably made his selection before he went to bed last night and didn't even watch the game. 

0918_FootballVBoise(Weir)6081.jpg.91934a8a511e3532b39599f1988bbacb.jpg

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3 minutes ago, jdgaucho said:

All football fans will be Aztecs if that matchup happens. Baylor's rotten to the core.

A few posters here would still root against us. Here's SI's more realistic projection for us: https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/11/24/bowl-projections-week-13-playoff-rankings-predictions

Edit: Then again, here's NBC's projection: https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/11/25/2018-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-13/

Boom goes the dynamite.

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3 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

A few posters here would still root against us. Here's SI's more realistic projection for us: https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/11/24/bowl-projections-week-13-playoff-rankings-predictions

Edit: Then again, here's NBC's projection: https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/11/25/2018-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-13/

 

It's Baylor.  NOBODY here likes them.

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7 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Jerry Palm somehow has SDSU in the Cheez-It against Baylor: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

If the Aztecs are chosen for that bowl, it will be well undeserved.

It is possible that the PAC-12 could vacate the Cheez-It in favor of another if it becomes available but I'm not sure why they would. It is a game in the west against another power conference. Not many of those that don't already involve the PAC. More money I guess. 

In any event, there is no way SDSU lands here should the MWC somehow get it.  It would be either the loser of the championship game or USU. No one else.

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8 minutes ago, Spot50B said:

It is possible that the PAC-12 could vacate the Cheez-It in favor of another if it becomes available but I'm not sure why they would. It is a game in the west against another power conference. Not many of those that don't already involve the PAC. More money I guess. 

In any event, there is no way SDSU lands here should the MWC somehow get it.  It would be either the loser of the championship game or USU. No one else.

I assume the thinking is that by scheduling the Aztecs to play a P5 opponent only a half-day drive from SD that bowl would get a bigger turnout for the MW team than would be true of USU. That might apply to Baylor because we haven't played them in forever but with TCU, not so much. But Fresno would probably bring as many fans as would SDSU.

As to ASU, aren't they pretty much destined for the LV Bowl?

Boom goes the dynamite.

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7 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

I assume the thinking is that by scheduling the Aztecs to play a P5 opponent only a half-day drive from SD that bowl would get a bigger turnout for the MW team than would be true of USU. That might apply to Baylor because we haven't played them in forever but with TCU, not so much. But Fresno would probably bring as many fans as would SDSU.

As to ASU, aren't they pretty much destined for the LV Bowl?

The Cheez-It would be our #2 should we get it. It would be unfair and would piss a lot of schools off should anyone other than Boise, Fresno or Utah State get it. Those teams also give the best chance of a win.

I don't follow ASU or Cal. Maybe ASU fans have some inside info about the Vegas Bowl. That game would make sense too 

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Cal doesn't travel any better than the average MWC school so the LV Bowl isn't going to take the Bears over ASU.

Although one might think a competitive game should be a top consideration for bowls, it is down the list from the likelihood of ticket purchases and hotel reservations.  SDSU fans don't travel very well outside California, Nevada and Arizona but they do tend to well populate games in those states. But don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with you that Boise or Fresno would be chosen by the Cheez-Its over SDSU but I can see us chosen over USU even though we wouldn't deserve to be.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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6 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Cal doesn't travel any better than the average MWC school so the LV Bowl isn't going to take the Bears over ASU.

Although one might think a competitive game should be a top consideration for bowls, it is down the list from the likelihood of ticket purchases and hotel reservations.  SDSU fans don't travel very well outside California, Nevada and Arizona but they do tend to well populate games in those states. But don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with you that Boise or Fresno would be chosen by the Cheez-Its over SDSU but I can see us chosen over USU even though we wouldn't deserve to be.

Good point about Cal. Since the Vegas Bowl picks first, you are probably right about them selecting ASU. Cal may not be desirable for the Cheez-It either. A MWC school may draw more fans.

I do think USU fans would be motivated and would travel well. They have had a crappy bowl game against crappy competition every year. Any power school would be a big draw for them 

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2 minutes ago, Spot50B said:

Good point about Cal. Since the Vegas Bowl picks first, you are probably right about them selecting ASU. Cal may not be desirable for the Cheez-It either. A MWC school may draw more fans.

I do think USU fans would be motivated and would travel well. They have had a crappy bowl game against crappy competition every year. Any power school would be a big draw for them 

You speak the truth. Sign me up to be in Phoenix in late December against a P5 school.

There are only two things I can't stand in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures and the Dutch. 

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51 minutes ago, madmartigan said:

I was hoping USU would get that bowl. Would love to play in warm weather against a P5 opponent. 

USU definitely deserves a better bowl than the Potato or NM this year. I'm hoping the fact they are still ranked in the Coaches Poll might give USU enough cache with ESPN and enough leverage for Hair to get them placed at a better bowl destination. 

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1 hour ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Cal doesn't travel any better than the average MWC school so the LV Bowl isn't going to take the Bears over ASU.

Although one might think a competitive game should be a top consideration for bowls, it is down the list from the likelihood of ticket purchases and hotel reservations.  SDSU fans don't travel very well outside California, Nevada and Arizona but they do tend to well populate games in those states. But don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with you that Boise or Fresno would be chosen by the Cheez-Its over SDSU but I can see us chosen over USU even though we wouldn't deserve to be.

The more I think about it, you are totally right that the Cheez-It would prefer Fresno, Boise or USU over Cal (probably SDSU as well).  The PAC-12 would have to agree to vacate their spot for this to be possible, which would mean that Cal would have to go somewhere equally as good with a similar payout.  Maybe a situation will exist to make that possible, but I don't know where that would be or which bowl would want to take Cal.

I do know one thing:  had Arizona State not made a furious comeback to beat Arizona, Arizona would have gotten to 6-6 and then there would be no doubt that the PAC-12 would fill this spot.  If this game does become available to a MWC team, thank Arizona State.

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1 hour ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

A few posters here would still root against us. Here's SI's more realistic projection for us: https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/11/24/bowl-projections-week-13-playoff-rankings-predictions

Edit: Then again, here's NBC's projection: https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/11/25/2018-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-13/

All three projections have someone other than the PAC-12 playing in the Cheez-It Bowl, which makes me think that I might be missing something?

At the same time, NBC says that Liberty is bowl eligible (they will be 6-6 if they beat their FCS opponent next week) but they are a transitional team who is not eligible for a bowl until next season.  I don't know how much research really goes into these projections but it doesn't really feel like a whole lot.  These are just wild ass guesses for clickbait purposes, similar to all of the mock NCAA basketball brackets.

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3 hours ago, madmartigan said:

You speak the truth. Sign me up to be in Phoenix in late December against a P5 school.

You know I mean no disrespect to USU. I'm simply trying to point out the politics involved in bowl participation offers made to the vast majority of G5 participants. As another example, although I can't state chapter and verse off the top of my head, I can say SDSU has guaranteed selling a minimum number of tickets several times. The first was for the 1998 LV Bowl when IIRC, the guaranteed minimum was 10K. My recollection is that a few times since, a quid pro quo for a formal offer was sales through the school of between 5K and 10K. Maybe bowl participation has been profitable for Boise but it never has for us.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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2 hours ago, Spot50B said:

All three projections have someone other than the PAC-12 playing in the Cheez-It Bowl, which makes me think that I might be missing something?

At the same time, NBC says that Liberty is bowl eligible (they will be 6-6 if they beat their FCS opponent next week) but they are a transitional team who is not eligible for a bowl until next season.  I don't know how much research really goes into these projections but it doesn't really feel like a whole lot.  These are just wild ass guesses for clickbait purposes, similar to all of the mock NCAA basketball brackets.

It doesn't have to do with the playoffs, its how many teams make the playoffs + NY6 bowls. A lot of predictions are now having the winner of Utah/Washington in the Rose Bowl, and there is a chance that Washington State could also go to a NY6 game.

 

I think there is a pretty good chance that the MW gets either the Redbox or Cheez-It Bowl, but it all depends on who the last team selected for the NY6 is. If Penn State gets in theres a good chance the MW will take the Big 10s spot in the Netflix. If its Washington State or Texas than the MW could take the Big12/Pac12s spot in the Cheez it.

 

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