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Boise vs Utah State smack talk thread

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16 minutes ago, madmartigan said:

11 non offensive touchdowns in 11 games is so flukey it’s happening once per game. It’s almost as if USU was trying to make good plays on defense and special teams and is succeeding. 

Wow, 11 really? That is a ton. Boise has done well in that category this year, but I'm sure it's half that. Boise has a tendency to give up non-offensive TDs... that's not good. 

I really, really hope that Hightower, Shakir, and Evans are healthy for the game. That's one of the few areas where I believe that Boise has an advantage over the baggies. If it's just Modster and AJ, while good, that advantage goes away.

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Just now, kingpotato said:

Wow, 11 really? That is a ton. Boise has done well in that category this year, but I'm sure it's half that. Boise has a tendency to give up non-offensive TDs... that's not good. 

I really, really hope that Hightower, Shakir, and Evans are healthy for the game. That's one of the few areas where I believe that Boise has an advantage over the baggies. If it's just Modster and AJ, while good, that advantage goes away.

USUs big weakness is in the secondary. It's also the area where we've had the most injuries in a relatively injury free squad. No bueno. 

Along the non-offensive TD line, some interesting numbers: USU has the #1 kickoff return team in the country, #2 in the country in passes intercepted, and #16 in the country in TFL. To say that these plays are "flukey" would be true, if you changed the meaning of the word to something that happens regularly and predictably. 

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Just now, madmartigan said:

USUs big weakness is in the secondary. It's also the area where we've had the most injuries in a relatively injury free squad. No bueno. 

Along the non-offensive TD line, some interesting numbers: USU has the #1 kickoff return team in the country, #2 in the country in passes intercepted, and #16 in the country in TFL. To say that these plays are "flukey" would be true, if you changed the meaning of the word to something that happens regularly and predictably. 

I wouldn't consider it "flukey." Aggressive defensive play leads to that. I would say it's a less reliable way to score. It still counts. Boise went from 31 TOs in '15, to nine in '16, back up to 26 in '17. Same scheme, but TOs are weird sometimes. 

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11 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

I wouldn't consider it "flukey." Aggressive defensive play leads to that. I would say it's a less reliable way to score. It still counts. Boise went from 31 TOs in '15, to nine in '16, back up to 26 in '17. Same scheme, but TOs are weird sometimes. 

Last comment I'll make on the Aggies and the obvious troll. I've seen a lot of fans analyze the Aggies defense from a raw numbers standpoint without taking into account one key metric: they are on the field longer than almost any other group in college football. USU is #117 in TOP, which means the defense generally has to play a larger number of stats which will lead to more yards, points, etc. So while USU is a middling defense statistically, they maybe a better overall group than they get credit for. The other factor is that USU has had several games where their 2s and 3s were playing for entire halves. 

This is what worries me about the USU vs Boise game. Boise has the kind of offense that can keep the USU defense on the field AND score points. 

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6 minutes ago, madmartigan said:

Last comment I'll make on the Aggies and the obvious troll. I've seen a lot of fans analyze the Aggies defense from a raw numbers standpoint without taking into account one key metric: they are on the field longer than almost any other group in college football. USU is #117 in TOP, which means the defense generally has to play a larger number of stats which will lead to more yards, points, etc. So while USU is a middling defense statistically, they maybe a better overall group than they get credit for. The other factor is that USU has had several games where their 2s and 3s were playing for entire halves. 

This is what worries me about the USU vs Boise game. Boise has the kind of offense that can keep the USU defense on the field AND score points. 

Yeah, that was a big reason why I had Utah State doing well this year. Teams play at massively different paces these days, so you really need to look at yards per play. Same with passing yards. The amount of yards given up is almost a meaningless stat. The efficiency is what is important. USU's ypp was almost identical to SDSU's last year... and the tecs led the league in total defense. They are one of the best in the league at that category this year too. Boise's ypp has gone down this year, but they've never dealt with the injuries that they are dealing with this year. That's why this game is so hard to call. I have no idea who is going to be playing in this game. 

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1 minute ago, kingpotato said:

Yeah, that was a big reason why I had Utah State doing well this year. Teams play at massively different paces these days, so you really need to look at yards per play. Same with passing yards. The amount of yards given up is almost a meaningless stat. The efficiency is what is important. USU's ypp was almost identical to SDSU's last year... and the tecs led the league in total defense. They are one of the best in the league at that category this year too. Boise's ypp has gone down this year, but they've never dealt with the injuries that they are dealing with this year. That's why this game is so hard to call. I have no idea who is going to be playing in this game. 

And which team will show up? Will it be good USU vs good BSU, or bad USU vs bad BSU? Both have been inconsistent. 

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Article on alternate universe where Jalen Greene is throwing passes to Modster and Richardson.

Greene had been committed to play quarterback for BSU for 8 months before Petersen left for UW.  Now he's a receiver for USU. 

https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/college/mountain-west/boise-state-university/boise-state-football/article221940890.html

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36 minutes ago, madmartigan said:

And which team will show up? Will it be good USU vs good BSU, or bad USU vs bad BSU? Both have been inconsistent. 

I feel Boise generally plays well against USU. Air Force and SDSU seem to give them trouble annually, but outside of that eight TO game, Boise has moved the ball well against some pretty good baggie defenses. 

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1 hour ago, madmartigan said:

Last comment I'll make on the Aggies and the obvious troll. I've seen a lot of fans analyze the Aggies defense from a raw numbers standpoint without taking into account one key metric: they are on the field longer than almost any other group in college football. USU is #117 in TOP, which means the defense generally has to play a larger number of stats which will lead to more yards, points, etc. So while USU is a middling defense statistically, they maybe a better overall group than they get credit for. The other factor is that USU has had several games where their 2s and 3s were playing for entire halves. 

This is what worries me about the USU vs Boise game. Boise has the kind of offense that can keep the USU defense on the field AND score points. 

Dude I'm not a troll. Everything I'm seeing just points to a Boise State win here. I can't believe others don't see it as clearly. I understand those points you brought up and there's plenty of counter points to them and stronger arguments for why Boise State will win this game. I'm not going to take the time to type them out though. 

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