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renoskier

MWC Early Lines...week 11

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Fresno State (-2.5) @ Boise State     this line opened at -2.5 and so far money has come on Fresno

Colorado State @ Nevada (-13)

New Mexico @ Air Force (-13.5)     seems like way too many points to me

San Jose State @ Utah State (-29.5)    I'll lay the big points

UNLV @ San Diego State (-18)

Hawaii and Wyoming    take a break....God knows you need it.

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38 minutes ago, renoskier said:

Fresno State (-2.5) @ Boise State     this line opened at -2.5 and so far money has come on Fresno

Colorado State @ Nevada (-13)

New Mexico @ Air Force (-13.5)     seems like way too many points to me

San Jose State @ Utah State (-29.5)    I'll lay the big points

UNLV @ San Diego State (-18)

Hawaii and Wyoming    take a break....God knows you need it.

edited

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Loser of Nevada - Colorado State will be eliminated from Mountain West title contention.  Both teams still have a mathematically possible chance of a 1st place division tie.

1st time Boise has been underdogs in a conference game at home since 1998.  Fresno is tied as the highest ranked team (#16) to visit Albertson's Stadium. Boise is averaging 95% capacity this season.  I would expect the Friday night game vs. Fresno to be a sellout.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Loser of Nevada - Colorado State will be eliminated from Mountain West title contention.  Both teams still have a mathematically possible chance of a 1st place division tie.

1st time Boise has been underdogs in a conference game at home since 1998.  Fresno is tied as the highest ranked team (#16) to visit Albertson's Stadium. Boise is averaging 95% capacity this season.  I would expect the Friday night game vs. Fresno to be a sellout.

 

 

If the game turns out like the Boston College game in 2005, I can live with that.

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35 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Loser of Nevada - Colorado State will be eliminated from Mountain West title contention.  Both teams still have a mathematically possible chance of a 1st place division tie.

1st time Boise has been underdogs in a conference game at home since 1998.  Fresno is tied as the highest ranked team (#16) to visit Albertson's Stadium. Boise is averaging 95% capacity this season.  I would expect the Friday night game vs. Fresno to be a sellout.

 

 

Actually, if Fresno wins on Friday we will be eliminated from title contention.  Even if they lose to SDSU and SJSU they’d still hold a tie breaker over us and it’s likely SDSU is the one playing for the MWC title from the west division in that instance.  Unless SDSU loses 2 of their last 3 then I’m not sure what the tie breaker is. 

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56 minutes ago, mugtang said:

Actually, if Fresno wins on Friday we will be eliminated from title contention.  Even if they lose to SDSU and SJSU they’d still hold a tie breaker over us and it’s likely SDSU is the one playing for the MWC title from the west division in that instance.  Unless SDSU loses 2 of their last 3 then I’m not sure what the tie breaker is. 

Fresno loses to BSU, then SDSU, then SJSU to finish 5-3.

Nevada loses to CSU, then wins out to finish 5-3.

SDSU beats Fresno, but loses to UNLV and Hawaii to finish 5-3.

****Tiebreaker for 3-Way Tie*******

a) Winning percentage in games played among the tied teams.  

b) Winning percentage in games played against division opponents.   (this is where Nevada would win it (only 1 division loss) and be in the champ game - it's not basketball season yet, @mugtang)

c) Winning percentage against the next highest‐placed team in the division (based upon the team’s record in all games played in the Conference), proceeding through the division.  

d) Winning percentage against common Conference opponents.  

e) Highest CFP ranking (or the composite of selected computer rankings if neither team is ranked in the CFP rankings) following the final week of Conference regular‐season games.  

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And here's the Too-Many-New-Belgiums-Dream-Scenario.

CSU (yeah, CSU) - finishes the year 3-0 to finish the year 5-3 in conference play.

BSU beats Utah State, but loses to Fresno State and New Mexico to finish 5-3 in conference.

Utah State loses the final three games (including a game to the Rams) to finish 5-3 in conference.

---

unfortunately for the Rams though - they would only get to hang the Co-Division Champs banner.  There is no scenario in which they win the tiebreaker and play in the conference championship game.

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10 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

I think it would need to be a 3-way tie at 5-3 for Nevada to make it - with Nevada's loss being out of division to CSU. Or if Fresno and SDSU both lose the rest of the way, then Nevada is in the 'ship if they win out!

apropos of nothing I think as of right now a five-way tie for the pac-12 south is still in play.

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26 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

I think it would need to be a 3-way tie at 5-3 for Nevada to make it - with Nevada's loss being out of division to CSU. Or if Fresno and SDSU both lose the rest of the way, then Nevada is in the 'ship if they win out!

If Nevada wins out we are 6-2 in conference.  We would need Fresno to lose their remaining 3 games and then SDSU to drop one of their games to either UNLV or Hawaii (they have to beat Fresno though for this to work).  In that situation SDSU and Nevada are both 6-2 in conference and Nevada holds the tie breaker over SDSU.  

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1 hour ago, mugtang said:

If Nevada wins out we are 6-2 in conference.  We would need Fresno to lose their remaining 3 games and then SDSU to drop one of their games to either UNLV or Hawaii (they have to beat Fresno though for this to work).  In that situation SDSU and Nevada are both 6-2 in conference and Nevada holds the tie breaker over SDSU.  

To simplify things for you, SDSU isn't going to lose to either UNLV or Hawaii but neither is SDSU going to beat Fresno.

But hey, we goan play a Sun Belt team in the Arizona Bowl!

And if it's App State, we prolly goan lose!

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