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ThePhantom88

Fresno @ Boise

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55 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

Working the reverse Jobo angle I see.   

Just calling it like I see it. There are certainly ways Boise can win, but if they were to play 10 games, Fresno would win the majority this year. Fresno has gotten progressively stronger throughout the season, where Boise has done the opposite. 

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1 hour ago, SBBulldog85 said:

Biggest problem with your premise is those 2017 teams no longer exist.

Fresno's 2018 team is better both offensively and defensively than last year's team

In 2017, Fresno had the 72nd ranked total offense and 15th ranked total defense 

In 2018, Fresno has the 47th ranked total offense and 14th ranked total defense

Boise's 2018 team is better offensively and WORSE defensively than last years team

In 2017, Boise had the 57th ranked total offense and 21st ranked total defense

In 2018, Boise has the 21st total ranked offense and 42nd ranked total defense

so Boise's offensive strength will be pitted against Fresno's defensive strength

last year Fresno was 9 point underdogs going into Boise

this year Fresno is 3 point favorites going into Boise,

that is a 12 point swing in Fresno's favor

The injuries on defense have caught up to them. They had a to 20 defense in the first part of the season, but they've given up big chunks the 2nd part. The two look very comparable offensively, but defensively Fresno has a big upper hand. 

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Even after watching nine weeks of games I have no idea what to make of this match up. All I now is this:

  1. BSU does not look like their normal dominant selves - partly due to their OL and lack of ability to just run over teams when needed, partly due to key injuries mounting up
  2. Fresno St. has looked comfortably in control of nearly every game.
  3. Fresno St. defensive numbers are partly inflated due to a truly horrid lineup of offenses they have faced all season. Also aided by playing an uncharacteristically poor UCLA team early in the season, a Gangi-less UNR, a WYO that was still playing Vander Waal, etc.
  4. BSU's pass defense can be taken advantage of (currently #74 in pass yards allowed - that is CSU bad)
  5. Rypien can look incredible on one drive and hapless the next
  6. Fresno St. has not faced a single team that has a positive Football Power Index rating. There are currently 67 FBS schools with a positive FPI rating and BSU will be the first one that Fresno St. has faced all season (and will be the only one unless they face USU in a MWCCG).

On the surface it appears Fresno St. should win this game but the stats say this is by far the best team they have faced to this point. So how will they react? How will BSU cope with potential key losses on both sides of the ball? I don't see this game getting away from either team so I think it will come down to the wire.

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28 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

The injuries on defense have caught up to them. They had a to 20 defense in the first part of the season, but they've given up big chunks the 2nd part. The two look very comparable offensively, but defensively Fresno has a big upper hand. 

Not vs. common opponents:

Nevada held Fresno to 30 yards rushing and 241 passing. (271 total)

Nevada the next week held Boise to 207 yards rushing and 299 passing (506 total)

Wyoming (#3 D in MW) held Fresno to 104 yards rushing and 287 yards passing (391 total)

Wyoming held Boise to 161 yards rushing and 345 yards passing (506 total)

---

Fresno has played the #4,7,8,10,11,12 ranked scoring defenses in conference so far.

Boise has played the #2,4,6,7, 11.  So Fresno's offensive stats are a bit inflated by that as well.

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38 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Not vs. common opponents:

Nevada held Fresno to 30 yards rushing and 241 passing. (271 total)

Nevada the next week held Boise to 207 yards rushing and 299 passing (506 total)

Wyoming (#3 D in MW) held Fresno to 104 yards rushing and 287 yards passing (391 total)

Wyoming held Boise to 161 yards rushing and 345 yards passing (506 total)

---

Fresno has played the #4,7,8,10,11,12 ranked scoring defenses in conference so far.

Boise has played the #2,4,6,7, 11.  So Fresno's offensive stats are a bit inflated by that as well.

Good stuff. 

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3 hours ago, godogsgo said:

This thread is full of people who see what they want to see...

 

...im seeing a delicious NY strip later tonite. Mmmm. Lots of butter. 

Love a N.Y. strip...but lots of butter? Unless you meant stripper and lots of butter, then I concur.

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I hate the donks, but I do respect them. Anything can happen.

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Quote

Mike Bronson, on 27 Sept 2013 - 8:45 PM, said:

 

    Don't be mad because the refs are going to need Tommy John surgeries after this poorly played game.

 

Quote

mugtang, on 27 Sept 2013 - 8:49 PM, said:

 

    Your mom is going to need Tommy John surgery after jerking me off all night.

 

Cartoon-21-Final.jpg

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4 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

I guess I'm an extreme homer for thinking my team has a chance at home as a 3 pt. dog.

Yeah, not sure why all the angst from some BSU fans. Fresno has been smoking teams but only a couple of their opponents could even be considered decent. The two best teams they've beaten on paper were either missing their starting QB (Nevada) or their QB went down early in the game (Toledo). 

I definitely think Fresno is a very good team but I'm not convinced they are significantly better than BSU, I think they are probably slightly better (and much healthier) right now, but our homefield advantage may negate that. Friday will tell the tale as to how the teams actually stack up, but I can easily see one fortuitous bounce allowing BSU to win a tight game. I also wouldn't be shocked if Fresno won by multiple scores but I wouldn't be shocked if BSU did the same to Fresno either. I'm also curious to see how Fresno would respond if the game remains close throughout--they haven't experienced much adversity or game pressure after halftime since their opener with Minny.

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43 minutes ago, KingBronco said:

Yeah, not sure why all the angst from some BSU fans. Fresno has been smoking teams but only a couple of their opponents could even be considered decent. The two best teams they've beaten on paper were either missing their starting QB (Nevada) or their QB went down early in the game (Toledo). 

I definitely think Fresno is a very good team but I'm not convinced they are significantly better than BSU, I think they are probably slightly better (and much healthier) right now, but our homefield advantage may negate that. Friday will tell the tale as to how the teams actually stack up, but I can easily see one fortuitous bounce allowing BSU to win a tight game. I also wouldn't be shocked if Fresno won by multiple scores but I wouldn't be shocked if BSU did the same to Fresno either. I'm also curious to see how Fresno would respond if the game remains close throughout--they haven't experienced much adversity or game pressure after halftime since their opener with Minny.

Outsiders pick here. 

Boise 27 Fresno 24.

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