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ThePhantom88

Fresno @ Boise

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I'd definitely drop the points and take Fresno in this one. Boise has largely struggled offensively when they play a decent defense. Defensively, the injuries are mounting. Their entire starting DL is out, two of the positions are down to the 3rd string, they just lost their leading tackler for the 2nd time this season. One of Boise's biggest strengths is getting to the QB (4th in the country), but not allowing sacks is one of Fresno's strength, so even that isn't much of an advantage. Honestly, this has the potential to be a blowout. 

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7 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

I'd definitely drop the points and take Fresno in this one. Boise has largely struggled offensively when they play a decent defense. Defensively, the injuries are mounting. Their entire starting DL is out, two of the positions are down to the 3rd string, they just lost their leading tackler for the 2nd time this season. One of Boise's biggest strengths is getting to the QB (4th in the country), but not allowing sacks is one of Fresno's strength, so even that isn't much of an advantage. Honestly, this has the potential to be a blowout. 

yup, just don't see how we beat fresno this year

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18 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

Honestly, this has the potential to be a blowout. 

 

11 minutes ago, thespywhozaggedme said:

yup, just don't see how we beat fresno this year

Y'all are a bunch of Negative Nancies. 3 pt spread means it's basically a coin toss by oddsmakers.  

Here's how Boise beats Fresno:

1. Horton locks down Keesean (their only real receiving threat)

2. Nickelbacks (all still healthy) shut down their TE

3. Stop their run game (which is about the same quality as BYU's)

4. Rypien throw the ball as well as he's capable

5. Win the turnover battle

---in two games last year he averaged 262 yards per game and 8.6 yards per attempt vs. Fresno.  That should be good enough to get it done as long as Boise can finish drives in the red zone.

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3 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

 

Y'all are a bunch of Negative Nancies. 3 pt spread means it's basically a coin toss by oddsmakers.  

Here's how Boise beats Fresno:

(1. Horton locks down Keesean their only real receiving threat)

2. Nickelbacks (all still healthy) shut down their TE

3. Stop their run game (which is about the same quality as BYU's)

4. Rypien throw the ball as well as he's capable

5. Win the turnover battle

---in two games last year he averaged 262 yards per game and 8.6 yards per attempt vs. Fresno.  That should be good enough to get it done as long as Boise can finish drives in the red zone.

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LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!

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10 minutes ago, Cincy said:

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!

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Who am I missing?

Jordan is averaging 2.2 catches per game and 31 yards with a touchdown every 5 games. Boise has 4 receivers with nearly twice that production. And those 2 touchdowns came against two of the worst passing D's in the MW.

 

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18 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

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Who am I missing?

Jordan is averaging 2.2 catches per game and 31 yards with a touchdown every 5 games. Boise has 4 receivers with nearly twice that production. And those 2 touchdowns came against two of the worst passing D's in the MW.

 

jordan toasted tyler horton in both games last year whenever the two were matched up one on one.  You're overthinking this. 

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1 hour ago, kingpotato said:

I'd definitely drop the points and take Fresno in this one. Boise has largely struggled offensively when they play a decent defense. Defensively, the injuries are mounting. Their entire starting DL is out, two of the positions are down to the 3rd string, they just lost their leading tackler for the 2nd time this season. One of Boise's biggest strengths is getting to the QB (4th in the country), but not allowing sacks is one of Fresno's strength, so even that isn't much of an advantage. Honestly, this has the potential to be a blowout. 

Boise will get pressure on mcmariyon imo. Maybe not a ton of sacks, but pressure. 

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13 minutes ago, Rofl_copter_dos said:

jordan toasted tyler horton in both games last year whenever the two were matched up one on one.  You're overthinking this. 

Zero touchdowns.  Jordan had a nice sideline catch against Horton (Horton lost his balance).  And Jordan had a drag route across the middle on Horton that went for a nice gain when Horton got picked.  In two games - those are the highlights.  I'm much more concerned if Avery Williams get's matched up with Keesean Johnson...that is a mismatch in Fresno's favor.

Correct me if I'm wrong (anyone), but I think Horton has only given up one passing touchdown to somebody lined up against him all season. And that was when he bit on the halfback pass from Air Force.

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12 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Zero touchdowns.  Jordan had a nice sideline catch against Horton (Horton lost his balance).  And Jordan had a drag route across the middle on Horton that went for a nice gain when Horton got picked.  In two games - those are the highlights.  I'm much more concerned if Avery Williams get's matched up with Keesean Johnson...that is a mismatch in Fresno's favor.

Correct me if I'm wrong (anyone), but I think Horton has only given up one passing touchdown to somebody lined up against him all season. And that was when he bit on the halfback pass from Air Force.

Horton also got burned on a sideline route in the red zone in game one and had to grab jordan to prevent an easy TD.  Refs picked up the flag because ball was supposedly tipped (it wasn't, but w.e)

Jordan also had a good three yards on horton on a deep route immediately after boise scored the go-ahead TD in the rematch and mcmaryion simply overshot him. 

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1 hour ago, bsu_alum9 said:

 

Y'all are a bunch of Negative Nancies. 3 pt spread means it's basically a coin toss by oddsmakers.  

Here's how Boise beats Fresno:

1. Horton locks down Keesean (their only real receiving threat)

2. Nickelbacks (all still healthy) shut down their TE

3. Stop their run game (which is about the same quality as BYU's)

4. Rypien throw the ball as well as he's capable

5. Win the turnover battle

---in two games last year he averaged 262 yards per game and 8.6 yards per attempt vs. Fresno.  That should be good enough to get it done as long as Boise can finish drives in the red zone.

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Biggest problem with your premise is those 2017 teams no longer exist.

Fresno's 2018 team is better both offensively and defensively than last year's team

In 2017, Fresno had the 72nd ranked total offense and 15th ranked total defense 

In 2018, Fresno has the 47th ranked total offense and 14th ranked total defense

Boise's 2018 team is better offensively and WORSE defensively than last years team

In 2017, Boise had the 57th ranked total offense and 21st ranked total defense

In 2018, Boise has the 21st total ranked offense and 42nd ranked total defense

so Boise's offensive strength will be pitted against Fresno's defensive strength

last year Fresno was 9 point underdogs going into Boise

this year Fresno is 3 point favorites going into Boise,

that is a 12 point swing in Fresno's favor

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2 hours ago, kingpotato said:

I'd definitely drop the points and take Fresno in this one. Boise has largely struggled offensively when they play a decent defense. Defensively, the injuries are mounting. Their entire starting DL is out, two of the positions are down to the 3rd string, they just lost their leading tackler for the 2nd time this season. One of Boise's biggest strengths is getting to the QB (4th in the country), but not allowing sacks is one of Fresno's strength, so even that isn't much of an advantage. Honestly, this has the potential to be a blowout. 

Working the reverse Jobo angle I see.   

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14 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

Working the reverse Jobo angle I see.   

Not really. Aside from the extreme homers, a majority of Bronco fans I know are anticipating a Fresno win. 

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4 hours ago, tailingpermit said:

@TheTedfordTrain is far too quiet, good chance he may blow his wad in the first quarter if he doesn't start pacing.

He's waiting patiently for someone to say something stupid so he can unleash another legendary "bump". 

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33 minutes ago, BSUTOP25 said:

Not really. Aside from the extreme homers, a majority of Bronco fans I know are anticipating a Fresno win. 

This ^^^

Being slightly in the collective heads of Fresno State may keep it closer than it should be, but I would expect a 10 points plus loss to Fresno.  And as I said in an earlier thread, Utah State won't let Boise State even keep it close -- just a gut hunch, but IMO the Blue Ags don't have any false phobias about Boise State!

 

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5 hours ago, retrofade said:

A win over SDSU is simply routine at this point. We're 4-2, soon to be 5-2, against you since we joined the conference. SUDS will be just another stepping stone on the way to the MWCG. 

That being said, y'all are next week. This week we get to kill off the curse of the blue turf. 

That makes about as much sense as me noting that the Aztecs have won 2 of last 3 and lead series 29-24-1. Means nothing this year. I'm hoping for a Fresneck win this week so we can rock your world next week. You are getting ahead of yourself assuming a dogchops win at Boise . 

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2 hours ago, JADogs05 said:

Boise will get pressure on mcmariyon imo. Maybe not a ton of sacks, but pressure. 

That's vital. They have to get that to have a shot. They need to force Marcus into a subpar game. He's been incredibly efficient all year. 

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2 hours ago, JADogs05 said:

Boise will get pressure on mcmariyon imo. Maybe not a ton of sacks, but pressure. 

The OL has been excellent but yeah, not spotless.   Marcus has been fantastic bouncing it outside or stepping it up, though.

 

Worth noting we've been down Syrus for 2 weeks, he should be back Friday.

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