The Bond Yield Curve is Flattening...

[THEUniversityofNevada]

...but “It’s different now!” 

I can’t see the future ladies and gents but be cautious.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/09/19/should-stock-market-investors-fear-the-coming-yield-curve-inversion/

 

[pokebball]

7 minutes ago, THEUniversityofNevada said:

...but “It’s different now!” 

I can’t see the future ladies and gents but be cautious.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/09/19/should-stock-market-investors-fear-the-coming-yield-curve-inversion/

 

This is forcing banks to increase their rates on ST deposits.  I heard what a few banks ST CD rates are at currently and couldn't believe it.  2.25%^ for a 15-month CD.

[sandiegopete]

Looks like short selling is the way to go. The only question is when to start.  You don't want to start shorting too soon.  I have consistently stated about a 3 year latency before a government action impacts the economy. Probably about mid 2020 will be the optimal time for shorting.

[pokebball]

14 minutes ago, sandiegopete said:

Looks like short selling is the way to go. The only question is when to start.  You don't want to start shorting too soon.  I have consistently stated about a 3 year latency before a government action impacts the economy. Probably about mid 2020 will be the optimal time for shorting.

Or international market

[mugtang]

The market is correcting. Expect the economy to do the same thing. Both are overheated and a recession is coming.  

[pokebball]

Just now, mugtang said:

The market is correcting. Expect the economy to do the same thing. Both are overheated and a recession is coming.  

 I re-balanced and dumped a few domestics last week and moved it to international securities.

[retrofade]

8 minutes ago, pokebball said:

 I re-balanced and dumped a few domestics last week and moved it to international securities.

I actually did the same on Monday.

[THEUniversityofNevada]

19 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

Long, long overdue IMO. Especially in tech. Real Estate is showing a lot of warning signs right now too. 

Real estate where? Gotta remember, there is no national real estate market. In 2006, when Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada were reaching for the stratosphere, Texas was flat. People who moved out of the boom/bust markets into slow and steady cash flow markets made a LOT of money.

Still lots of local markets in the Midwest and Southeast that are not over heated.

[sandiegopete]

9 minutes ago, THEUniversityofNevada said:

Real estate where? Gotta remember, there is no national real estate market. In 2006, when Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada were reaching for the stratosphere, Texas was flat. People who moved out of the boom/bust markets into slow and steady cash flow markets made a LOT of money.

Still lots of local markets in the Midwest and Southeast that are not over heated.

Could it be that people priced out of areas like the prime areas of California are moving to various other states where they can live within their income?  And there are so many states that fit the bill to choose from so that is what keeps those others states from being "overheated"?  In the meantime, it seems the people who are moving into states like California are more likely to be higher earners than those moving out.  

[pokebball]

21 minutes ago, sandiegopete said:

Could it be that people priced out of areas like the prime areas of California are moving to various other states where they can live within their income?  And there are so many states that fit the bill to choose from so that is what keeps those others states from being "overheated"?  In the meantime, it seems the people who are moving into states like California are more likely to be higher earners than those moving out.  

And you also get the constant back-and-forth of urbanization.  Here in the Rocky Mountains, i think the current shift is back out to rural areas.  Of course there are exceptions, like Fort Collins who is experiencing a high growth rate so urban and rural are both growing.

[sandiegopete]

18 minutes ago, pokebball said:

And you also get the constant back-and-forth of urbanization.  Here in the Rocky Mountains, i think the current shift is back out to rural areas.  Of course there are exceptions, like Fort Collins who is experiencing a high growth rate so urban and rural are both growing.

Who would be moving into rural areas?  Probably those people who do almost all, if not all, of their work from home.  Plus the retired.  I still can't see a major corporation having a completely decentralized home office. 

[pokebball]

2 minutes ago, sandiegopete said:

Who would be moving into rural areas?  Probably those people who do almost all, if not all, of their work from home.  Plus the retired.  I still can't see a major corporation having a completely decentralized home office. 

Urban out here is different than perhaps San Diego.  You can be in the country with horses or a lake/stream to fish and only have a 30-45 minute commute to work.

[jackmormon]

2 hours ago, sandiegopete said:

Looks like short selling is the way to go. The only question is when to start.  You don't want to start shorting too soon.  I have consistently stated about a 3 year latency before a government action impacts the economy. Probably about mid 2020 will be the optimal time for shorting.

Short selling is way to risky for my tastes. 

[pokebball]

2 minutes ago, jackmormon said:

Short selling is way to risky for my tastes. 

Depends on many factors - age, accumulated wealth, need for portfolio to generate income vs growth.

I'm too old, personally.

[sandiegopete]

34 minutes ago, pokebball said:

Urban out here is different than perhaps San Diego.  You can be in the country with horses or a lake/stream to fish and only have a 30-45 minute commute to work.

30 0r 45 minutes to work means if there is developable property in that area it will eventually become a suburb of the city it outlies. 

[happycamper]

13 hours ago, sandiegopete said:

30 0r 45 minutes to work means if there is developable property in that area it will eventually become a suburb of the city it outlies. 

Not necessarily.

First, there is a lot more public land out here, which creates growth boundaries.

Second, there are a lot of geographical boundaries. Hills, mountains, lakes, etc.

Third, the city is now more or less a 130 mile continuous line that can be as narrow as 3 miles wide. That means there's a LOT more rural area that is a 45 minute commute from a city than there is in SD. There are a lot of areas like north Cheyenne where there's a house every 10-20 acres. That ends up being a lot of people but also definitely not a "suburb".