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Hurricane Michael

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4 hours ago, pokebball said:

@retrofade  I got to ask what you do for a living.  I really appreciate your severe weather updates and news that you post on here.  thx

I'm honestly just an IT monkey/project manager. I spend a good chunk of my day writing custom reports and data extracts for utility customers. That being said, I also have a lot of down time between customer requests for data or software issues.

That being said, I'm incredibly fascinated by weather, and have been since I was a kid. It's become something of a hobby of mine to follow storms like this, as well as just normal thunderstorms, and huge snow events. I'm also a member of a tropical/severe weather Discord server that has a lot of verified meteorologists on it that post a ton of stuff. If I had my younger years to do over again, I probably would have looked into pursuing this as a career. 

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Pressure was lower than Andrew but the winds didn't have time to ratchet up. Which is why it's continuing to slightly strengthen at the moment even though it's landed.

 

It will start to weaken soon but it's going to have some serious energy over land for awhile.

 

 

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One of the Final Five..........

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11 minutes ago, mysfit said:

Pressure was lower than Andrew but the winds didn't have time to ratchet up. Which is why it's continuing to slightly strengthen at the moment even though it's landed.

 

It will start to weaken soon but it's going to have some serious energy over land for awhile.

 

 

There's also the "brown ocean effect" that some think may be helping it out right now as well. Essentially, it's sucking up water that's saturated on the ground already, and using it to maintain or even gain strength over land. That's why some of the models have it staying as a hurricane for a lot longer right now.

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14 minutes ago, mysfit said:

Pressure was lower than Andrew but the winds didn't have time to ratchet up. Which is why it's continuing to slightly strengthen at the moment even though it's landed.

 

It will start to weaken soon but it's going to have some serious energy over land for awhile.

 

 

There are some reports out there that there were winds upwards of 159 MPH after landfall. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC changing it to a C5 when they reanalyze and report their retrospective at the end of the season.

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19 hours ago, retrofade said:

There are some reports out there that there were winds upwards of 159 MPH after landfall. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC changing it to a C5 when they reanalyze and report their retrospective at the end of the season.

 

19 hours ago, retrofade said:

Two hours after landfall, and winds are still around 140 MPH sustained. Good God.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/101953.shtml

Given these we are going to have to redraw some of our wind speed maps for design. Unfortunately even that probably won't make it in to the 2022 ASCE 7, so 2028 for the updated loads and probably 2032 before the new standards are adopted most places at the earliest (could be as late as 2040, we are still using ASCE 7-2010). Yeesh. Oh well, modern standards are still much better than even 20 years ago, local governments can unilaterally adopt higher wind speeds, and engineers can always choose to use a higher loading to be conservative.

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Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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Hey guys, sorry I havent posted but honestly Im mentally and physically wore the fyvk out. The worst part is the mental. You're watching projections for hours on end, no sleep,  should we pack our essentials and pets and bail? 

No, let's wait , it looks like it might slow down or move away from me enough to be safe. Another couple hours go by , while we are sitting on the edge. I see it intensifies to Category 4. Unprecedented.

Shit- my 'weather mind' and all the data I'm seeing , tells me I'm better off on the west side of the hurricane. sooo, we 'should'  be okay.

Then a few hours later.

Holy hell, We pull the plug at 4:00 am because the projections are now a possible CAT 5 and it hasnt turned east enough, still heading north . We go to a safer site. We watch it unfold from there. 

It ended up turning east. Not much more than tropical force winds ended up hitting here.  We ended up about 60 miles west of the eye.

If it had turned a few degrees west, It would have been a much different story for me. 

I feel so bad for the folks in the area where it hit because I was hoping so much it wouldn't hit here.

Thanks to the MWC boards peeps for caring about something so far away from most of them. 

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5 minutes ago, DestinFlPackfan said:

Hey guys, sorry I havent posted but honestly Im mentally and physically wore the fyvk out. The worst part is the mental. You're watching projections for hours on end, no sleep,  should we pack our essentials and pets and bail? 

No, let's wait , it looks like it might slow down or move away from me enough to be safe. Another couple hours go by , while we are sitting on the edge. I see it intensifies to Category 4. Unprecedented.

Shit- my 'weather mind' and all the data I'm seeing , tells me I'm better off on the west side of the hurricane. sooo, we 'should'  be okay.

Then a few hours later.

Holy hell, We pull the plug at 4:00 am because the projections are now a possible CAT 5 and it hasnt turned east enough, still heading north . We go to a safer site. We watch it unfold from there. 

It ended up turning east. Not much more than tropical force winds ended up hitting here.  We ended up about 60 miles west of the eye.

If it had turned a few degrees west, It would have been a much different story for me. 

I feel so bad for the folks in the area where it hit because I was hoping so much it wouldn't hit here.

Thanks to the MWC boards peeps for caring about something so far away from most of them. 

I'm glad that you made it through okay. What that storm did was completely unprecedented... it was still gaining strength until right as it hit land. It's probably going to be studied for years to come. 

I really feel bad for the people in the Mexico Beach area... it's just leveled. 

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Good to know you are on Destin.

 

Warm water in the gulf allowed it to continue strengthening until landfall. Then the pressure dropped and it hit land before the wind speeds caught up.

 

Fast, mean bastard.

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One of the Final Five..........

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