Thanks for handing the NY6 spot to the AAC again

[kingpotato]

3 hours ago, SparkysDad said:

While the AAC controls it's own destiny in regards to the NY6, a lot of lucky breaks have come into play (as always).

For UCF to get the auto bid without any questions, of course they must remain undefeated.  Undefeated is hard in ANY conference.  UCF probably has enough cache from last year's run, even with a loss to get in ahead of a one loss Boise State.  

But the lucky breaks come into play when you look at the top of the AAC and their "notable" OOC wins.  4-0 USF's best win is Georgia Tech (who has beaten nobody of merit).  5-0 Cincinnati's best win is UCLA (who has literally beaten NOBODY).  4-1 Houston's best win is Arizona (who has beaten no one of merit).  

UCF's win against Pitt is easily the best OOC win in the conference and that's not particularly good either.  That cancelled UNC game could come into play with the comittee if Boise State manhandles the rest of its schedule, Ok State has a great Big 12 season and UCF drops an unexpected game.  JMHO.

UCF is the only one who controls it's own destiny. If they slip up, Boise takes that spot and it won't be close. 

[Jack Bauer]

3 hours ago, SparkysDad said:

While the AAC controls it's own destiny in regards to the NY6, a lot of lucky breaks have come into play (as always).

For UCF to get the auto bid without any questions, of course they must remain undefeated.  Undefeated is hard in ANY conference.  UCF probably has enough cache from last year's run, even with a loss to get in ahead of a one loss Boise State.  

But the lucky breaks come into play when you look at the top of the AAC and their "notable" OOC wins.  4-0 USF's best win is Georgia Tech (who has beaten nobody of merit).  5-0 Cincinnati's best win is UCLA (who has literally beaten NOBODY).  4-1 Houston's best win is Arizona (who has beaten no one of merit).  

UCF's win against Pitt is easily the best OOC win in the conference and that's not particularly good either.  That cancelled UNC game could come into play with the comittee if Boise State manhandles the rest of its schedule, Ok State has a great Big 12 season and UCF drops an unexpected game.  JMHO.

What are the notable wins of the MWC?  Troy?  ASU?  There's not a lot to hang your hat on from either league at this point.  I completely disagree about the North Carolina game coming in to play.  You think a game against a bad P5 team should come in to play for a team that's gone 26-0 the last 2 seasons (should it come to that at the end of the year)?

[SparkysDad]

2 hours ago, Jack Bauer said:

What are the notable wins of the MWC?  Troy?  ASU?  There's not a lot to hang your hat on from either league at this point.  I completely disagree about the North Carolina game coming in to play.  You think a game against a bad P5 team should come in to play for a team that's gone 26-0 the last 2 seasons (should it come to that at the end of the year)?

This year's UCF team is not the same team as last year's UCF team.  That's how it works in college football except for Alabama!  I think that last year's UCF team would beat this year's UCF team silly!

I think that UCF is probably the best G5 (sorry P6 advocates!) and deserving at this point in the season of the NY6 Bowl.  I do not believe after watching Boise State's performance against Oklahoma State (and the right side of the O-Line in games following that performance!) that Boise State is as good as they looked on paper in the pre-season.  I think that UCF would beat Boise State on a neutral field due to their athleticism and the opportunity to expose Boise State's glaring O Line weakness. 

I think SDSU's road win over then #23 ASU (who had just beaten then #15 Michigan State) is the best win in either conference for what it's worth, but I'm not trying to compare conferences.  I'm just highlighting that The Committee will see undefeated Cincinnati and USF and a good record from Houston and that UCF will get more credit than deserved on their conference mates beating those teams.  If Cincinnati and USF end up losing to teams with bad records in conference and UCF trips twice, the fact that they didn't play a game against a P5 opponent might have some meaningful weight with The Committee at the end of the season, that's all.

I guess my bottom line is that the door would re-open for Boise State if UCF lost a couple, in part due to my belief that the AAC's OOC is impressive in "name only".   

 

[Jack Bauer]

1 minute ago, SparkysDad said:

This year's UCF team is not the same team as last year's UCF team.  That's how it works in college football except for Alabama!  I think that last year's UCF team would beat this year's UCF team silly!

I think that UCF is probably the best G5 (sorry P6 advocates!) and deserving at this point in the season of the NY6 Bowl.  I do not believe after watching Boise State's performance against Oklahoma State (and the right side of the O-Line in games following that performance!) that Boise State is as good as they looked on paper in the pre-season.  I think that UCF would beat Boise State on a neutral field due to their athleticism and the opportunity to expose Boise State's glaring O Line weakness. 

I think SDSU's road win over then #23 ASU (who had just beaten then #15 Michigan State) is the best win in either conference for what it's worth, but I'm not trying to compare conferences.  I'm just highlighting that The Committee will see undefeated Cincinnati and USF and a good record from Houston and that UCF will get more credit than deserved on their conference mates beating those teams.  If Cincinnati and USF end up losing to teams with bad records in conference and UCF trips twice, the fact that they didn't play a game against a P5 opponent might have some meaningful weight with The Committee at the end of the season, that's all.

I guess my bottom line is that the door would re-open for Boise State if UCF lost a couple, in part due to my belief that the AAC's OOC is impressive in "name only".   

 

I don't think they're the same team, but if a team goes 26-0, I don't really care if they missed a game against a P5 team with a losing record.  

You guys need to decide if ranked team at the time counts, or if ranked team at the end of the season counts.

I think Cincy and USF are pretty good teams.  I think Fresno is a pretty good team as well.  I think Boise and USU are too.   The conferences are probably pretty similar, but I think the American benefits from East coast bias as well as recency bias.  That doesn't mean UCF isn't a pretty good team this year.  If they go unbeaten, I hope they put them in the playoff.  I doubt they will, but I hope they would.

UCF played and beat Pitt like a drum, as to your point of them not playing an additional game against another P5.  Pitt benchmarks out better than UNC, though they are similar.

[SparkysDad]

1 hour ago, Jack Bauer said:

I don't think they're the same team, but if a team goes 26-0, I don't really care if they missed a game against a P5 team with a losing record.  

You guys need to decide if ranked team at the time counts, or if ranked team at the end of the season counts.

I think Cincy and USF are pretty good teams.  I think Fresno is a pretty good team as well.  I think Boise and USU are too.   The conferences are probably pretty similar, but I think the American benefits from East coast bias as well as recency bias.  That doesn't mean UCF isn't a pretty good team this year.  If they go unbeaten, I hope they put them in the playoff.  I doubt they will, but I hope they would.

UCF played and beat Pitt like a drum, as to your point of them not playing an additional game against another P5.  Pitt benchmarks out better than UNC, though they are similar.

Got it!  I'm actually discussing the outside NY6 odds of Boise State if UCF went 24-2 over the last two years!

As you alluded 26-0 and a playoff spot for UCF is a pipe dream.  The out-of-their-control circumstances that would have to occur include a mega-tough OOC and lots of chaos in the P5 conferences...and at least two years of undefeatedness!

[Jack Bauer]

6 minutes ago, SparkysDad said:

Got it!  I'm actually discussing the outside NY6 odds of Boise State if UCF went 24-2 over the last two years!

As you alluded 26-0 and a playoff spot for UCF is a pipe dream.  The out-of-their-control circumstances that would have to occur include a mega-tough OOC and lots of chaos in the P5 conferences...and at least two years of undefeatedness!

You think they lose 2?  Here's to optimism, brother.

[SparkysDad]

1 minute ago, Jack Bauer said:

You think they lose 2?  Here's to optimism, brother.

They're overrated because of how other teams in their conference played against overrated OOC programs, of course! 

[KingBronco]

2 hours ago, Jack Bauer said:

You think they lose 2?  Here's to optimism, brother.

It's pretty hard to say how good UCF actually is this year with their only road game against UConn and a bunch of mediocre opponents at home. I think it's obvious they are one of the better G5 teams this year but we won't know how good they actually are until they play a couple decent teams on the road.

[Jack Bauer]

10 minutes ago, KingBronco said:

It's pretty hard to say how good UCF actually is this year with their only road game against UConn and a bunch of mediocre opponents at home. I think it's obvious they are one of the better G5 teams this year but we won't know how good they actually are until they play a couple decent teams on the road.

They have games against Memphis and UCF on the road.  The computers have them as heavy favorites to end the year, but I always feel like a team that has a novelty offense like Navy can come in and upset a hot team.  I think their best chance for a loss is against @Memphis in a few weeks.  FPI has them as a pick em' in that game.  FPI has them favored heavily otherwise.

[fanhood]

14 hours ago, pesik said:

 

 

Texas Defense versus Tulsa
21 points
12/24 154 yards 1 TD 2 INT
38 rushes for 189 yards 2 TD
0 Fumble recoveries
0 Sacks
3 Tackles for a loss
2 QB Hurries

Houston Defense versus Tulsa
26 points
13/31 227 yards 1 TD 1 INT
57 rushes for 199 yards
2 Fumble recoveries
4 Sacks
9 Tackles for a loss
8 QB hurries

its funny to me, you guys were never going to be satisfied...we destroy them, they are trash..we win in regular game, we arent good...top 20 texas didnt roll tulsa...top 20 texas is top 20 almost exclusively because of defense ...but whatever floats your boat guys

Did you not watch the game?

[pesik]

1 hour ago, fanhood said:

Did you not watch the game?

Did you... Tulsa had 1good quarter total (the 3rd) 

Houston had a 3rd down drop that forced a punt, a 4th down drop, 2 luck turnovers (the 3rd 1st half turnover wasnt luck but a bad play by us).. all of this in the 1st half and we still had a lead .. I made a joke in the AAC forum about a team controlling game with 4 turnovers at halftime.. Houston was stopping Houston

And a second question did you watch the texas vs Tulsa game ...yes, we didn't flat out shut down Tulsa in the 3rd quarter .. with your bias, Tulsa is horrific so that means we don't have defense ...I already put up the stats for you... Tulsa dominated the 3rd quarter in the Texas game as well

Texas is a top 20 team almost exclusively becuase of defense .. not saying they are good but they aren't a pushover.. 

I've noticed you tend to remove any context when talking football.. 

[fanhood]

7 hours ago, pesik said:

Did you... Tulsa had 1good quarter total (the 3rd) 

Houston had a 3rd down drop that forced a punt, a 4th down drop, 2 luck turnovers (the 3rd 1st half turnover wasnt luck but a bad play by us).. all of this in the 1st half and we still had a lead .. I made a joke in the AAC forum about a team controlling game with 4 turnovers at halftime.. Houston was stopping Houston

And a second question did you watch the texas vs Tulsa game ...yes, we didn't flat out shut down Tulsa in the 3rd quarter .. with your bias, Tulsa is horrific so that means we don't have defense ...I already put up the stats for you... Tulsa dominated the 3rd quarter in the Texas game as well

Texas is a top 20 team almost exclusively becuase of defense .. not saying they are good but they aren't a pushover.. 

I've noticed you tend to remove any context when talking football.. 

Nope, didn't want the Tulsa vs Texas game, ask it was on Longhorn Network, which I do not get. I'll take you at your word that Tulsa is "not a pushover" even though that program is 3-14 over the past two seasons. 

As for Tulsa, they pounded the ball on you. You can see that from watching the game, and from looking at the stat lines. You were arguing how strong your Run D was, and I was pointing out how garbage your D is as a whole. If you were somehow encouraged by that game, I am not sure what to tell you. The good news is, your schedule looks very weak going forward. As such, since Houston has more talent than anyone they will play, I like your chances to go 9-3 or 10-2. 

[pesik]

41 minutes ago, fanhood said:

Nope, didn't want the Tulsa vs Texas game, ask it was on Longhorn Network, which I do not get. I'll take you at your word that Tulsa is "not a pushover" even though that program is 3-14 over the past two seasons. 

As for Tulsa, they pounded the ball on you. You can see that from watching the game, and from looking at the stat lines. You were arguing how strong your Run D was, and I was pointing out how garbage your D is as a whole. If you were somehow encouraged by that game, I am not sure what to tell you. The good news is, your schedule looks very weak going forward. As such, since Houston has more talent than anyone they will play, I like your chances to go 9-3 or 10-2. 

just like they pounded the ball on texas. this is my point that you never add context..you let your bias control almost all your opinions.. 

tulsa put more rushing yards on texas than usc and maryland combined...if you add kansas state, those 3 teams combined only put up about 50 more than tulsa..

look at houston defense stats last season, houston had an elite rush defense..but 1 team managed to rush over 250yds on us.. hint it wasnt navy, it was tulsa..

yes im encouraged, we improved from 288 (our by far worst last year) to 198 this year, who ed oliver says is the worst team to play....im encourage because our db made tons of plays that game...they looked vastly improved, their by far best game of the season

 

an example of how all our debates with you go nowadays:

a 2-5 team averaging 35 points a game vs everyone (including vs a top 15 team) but has a horrible defense 

we beat them in a 48-31 game.. 99% chance youd say you let a 2-6 team score 31 points on you..you have a horrible defense 

 

its like context doesnt exist in you...i literally gave you the context in the stat comparison

[SleepingGiantFan]

Hey Pea6 Fan: You go girl!!! 

Don't let nobody try to tell y'all you ain't the Good Lord's gift to college football!!!

[the former 1066]

On 10/5/2018 at 11:13 AM, East Coast Aztec said:

I didn't realize so many AAC folks lurked here. 

I don't think they would if our posters did not reply to their bragging. But I could be wrong, after all I lurk on the CUSA and AAC boards sometimes as well. 

[UofMTigers]

21 hours ago, jdgaucho said:

 

This board is welcoming to outsiders.

this is very true...

[Bruininthebay]

I am enjoying fanhood and pesik re-engaging about this topic.   Their previous thread on the AAC board is probably locked and hidden at this point but my recollection is that the troll reaction to fanhood's points was so toxic and one sided that they had to implement moderation.  That is about as legendary as a message board discussion can get imho.

This topic is definitely worthy of discussion because it's an entertaining argument with points in favor of both positions.  My impression is that this board can handle making arguments in favor of the AAC without imploding.

To wit: Tulsa is one of the few AAC teams with a winning record overall against MW teams.  The Golden Hurricane is 3-2 lifetime  with victories over Fresno State, New Mexico and SJSU.  

If you consider the Navy Air Force rivalry it's own series and separately from the full AAC members, only Houston and South Florida have wins against MW schools (UNLV and San Jose respectively).

http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/tvc/mountainwest/americanathletic.shtml

MOUNTAIN WEST VS. AMERICAN ATHLETIC TEAMS
                        W     L     T   Win %    PFPG    PAPG
  Cincinnati            1     0     0   100.0    42.0     7.0
  Connecticut           2     0     0   100.0    50.0    14.0
  Houston               2     1     0    66.7    27.0    28.0
  Navy                  2     2     0    50.0    35.8    34.0
  Rutgers               1     0     0   100.0    52.0    51.0
  South Florida         0     1     0     0.0    22.0    42.0
  Tulsa                 2     3     0    40.0    26.0    32.6

 

2018/09/08  Boise St        62  -  Connecticut      7                          
2018/09/01  Hawaii          59  -  Navy            41                          
2017/12/24  Fresno St       33  -  Houston         27     !! Hawaii Bowl !!                            
2017/09/23  New Mexico      16  -  Tulsa           13                          
2017/08/26  San Jose St     22  -  South Florida   42                          
2016/12/17  San Diego St    34  -  Houston         10     !! Las Vegas Bowl !!                         
2016/09/24  Fresno St       41  -  Tulsa           48  OT                      
2016/09/03  San Jose St     10  -  Tulsa           45                          
2015/12/24  San Diego St    42  -  Cincinnati       7     !! Hawaii Bowl !!                             
2015/09/12  New Mexico      21  -  Tulsa           40                          
2014/10/04  Colorado St     42  -  Tulsa           17                          
2014/09/20  UNLV            14  -  Houston         47                          
2014/09/13  Boise St        38  -  Connecticut     21                          
2013/08/29  Fresno St       52  -  Rutgers         51  OT  

[Cougar King]

Bye Bye Boise State!!

[fanhood]

12 hours ago, Bruininthebay said:

I am enjoying fanhood and pesik re-engaging about this topic.   Their previous thread on the AAC board is probably locked and hidden at this point but my recollection is that the troll reaction to fanhood's points was so toxic and one sided that they had to implement moderation.  That is about as legendary as a message board discussion can get imho.

This topic is definitely worthy of discussion because it's an entertaining argument with points in favor of both positions.  My impression is that this board can handle making arguments in favor of the AAC without imploding.

To wit: Tulsa is one of the few AAC teams with a winning record overall against MW teams.  The Golden Hurricane is 3-2 lifetime  with victories over Fresno State, New Mexico and SJSU.  

If you consider the Navy Air Force rivalry it's own series and separately from the full AAC members, only Houston and South Florida have wins against MW schools (UNLV and San Jose respectively).

http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/tvc/mountainwest/americanathletic.shtml

MOUNTAIN WEST VS. AMERICAN ATHLETIC TEAMS
                        W     L     T   Win %    PFPG    PAPG
  Cincinnati            1     0     0   100.0    42.0     7.0
  Connecticut           2     0     0   100.0    50.0    14.0
  Houston               2     1     0    66.7    27.0    28.0
  Navy                  2     2     0    50.0    35.8    34.0
  Rutgers               1     0     0   100.0    52.0    51.0
  South Florida         0     1     0     0.0    22.0    42.0
  Tulsa                 2     3     0    40.0    26.0    32.6

 

2018/09/08  Boise St        62  -  Connecticut      7                          
2018/09/01  Hawaii          59  -  Navy            41                          
2017/12/24  Fresno St       33  -  Houston         27     !! Hawaii Bowl !!                            
2017/09/23  New Mexico      16  -  Tulsa           13                          
2017/08/26  San Jose St     22  -  South Florida   42                          
2016/12/17  San Diego St    34  -  Houston         10     !! Las Vegas Bowl !!                         
2016/09/24  Fresno St       41  -  Tulsa           48  OT                      
2016/09/03  San Jose St     10  -  Tulsa           45                          
2015/12/24  San Diego St    42  -  Cincinnati       7     !! Hawaii Bowl !!                             
2015/09/12  New Mexico      21  -  Tulsa           40                          
2014/10/04  Colorado St     42  -  Tulsa           17                          
2014/09/20  UNLV            14  -  Houston         47                          
2014/09/13  Boise St        38  -  Connecticut     21                          
2013/08/29  Fresno St       52  -  Rutgers         51  OT  

Well, one of our bottom feeders, beat one of their upper tier teams today. And they beat them badly. Yet again, the MW beats the AAC. This is starting to become predictable. 

[sdsuphilip4]

Congrats to UCF i suppose, but not sure why a Houston fan is gloating