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6 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

Not so sure the economy will boost the GOP that much...........this election could be a statement on trump. Remains to be seen, but if the economy were issue #1 to voters, statewide GOP'ers would be seeing better poll numbers - And Dems have been adding more voters than GOP for about 6 months...........in fact last month the GOP was 3rd behind Dems and NP voter additions

Good economy always depresses turnout for dems.   Dems are the small minded protest vote and if they are working they won't take the time to vote.

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Just now, bluerules009 said:

Good economy always depresses turnout for dems.   Dems are the small minded protest vote and if they are working they won't take the time to vote.

Not sure this is a year Dem's stay on the sidelines. 

one word - trump <<-- that's could be the driver for D's and NP's 

Plus health care is polling high on priority lists and the GOP has spend 8 years trying to kill off healthcare 

It will be another red wave in rural NV, as it is pretty much every election........but if D's turn out in Clark & Washoe and NP's break to Dems.......the GOP could have a tough night - If NP's break to GOP at 54+5 then that could counter any Dem blue wave and GOP could hold senate seat and even reclaim CD04 

Doubt the GOP can take the state senate or assembly - Just not favorable numbers in many districts 

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3 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

Not sure this is a year Dem's stay on the sidelines. 

one word - trump <<-- that's could be the driver for D's and NP's 

Plus health care is polling high on priority lists and the GOP has spend 8 years trying to kill off healthcare 

It will be another red wave in rural NV, as it is pretty much every election........but if D's turn out in Clark & Washoe and NP's break to Dems.......the GOP could have a tough night - If NP's break to GOP at 54+5 then that could counter any Dem blue wave and GOP could hold senate seat and even reclaim CD04 

Doubt the GOP can take the state senate or assembly - Just not favorable numbers in many districts 

I think you are underestimating the number of democratic voters that like Trump.   Democrats just do not turn out for midterm elections.  Trump isn't on the ballot and I think the issue of Trump will turnout more of his supporters than the Haters.  Republicans love his supreme court nominations and I tend to agree he has done a good job in that area.   There is going to be many republicans that will turnout in senate races just to give Trump a third chance of putting in another justice.

 

The rurals rarely matter and we all know they will vote more than 70% republican.

Heller being an incumbant is more powerful than most people understand.

Midterm election politics it is very likely democrats will struggle to turnout voters.

 

Clark county turns out, it doesn't matter what the rest of the state does.  We all know they won't though, so it is just a matter of how big the clark county votes does turn out.

 

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5 minutes ago, bluerules009 said:

I think you are underestimating the number of democratic voters that like Trump.   Democrats just do not turn out for midterm elections.  Trump isn't on the ballot and I think the issue of Trump will turnout more of his supporters than the Haters.  Republicans love his supreme court nominations and I tend to agree he has done a good job in that area.   There is going to be many republicans that will turnout in senate races just to give Trump a third chance of putting in another justice.

 

The rurals rarely matter and we all know they will vote more than 70% republican.

Heller being an incumbant is more powerful than most people understand.

Midterm election politics it is very likely democrats will struggle to turnout voters.

 

Clark county turns out, it doesn't matter what the rest of the state does.  We all know they won't though, so it is just a matter of how big the clark county votes does turn out.

 

No doubt a % of Dems flipped to trump over HRC in 2016.........good question on how many are still with him or have abandoned him, that could factor in, but will those D registered voters flip to GOP'ers on the ballot ?!?!

I know the GOP is working it like never before in NV, so if their efforts pay off it could be a tough night for Dems if D voters opt to stay home 

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3 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

No doubt a % of Dems flipped to trump over HRC in 2016.........good question on how many are still with him or have abandoned him, that could factor in, but will those D registered voters flip to GOP'ers on the ballot ?!?!

I know the GOP is working it like never before in NV, so if their efforts pay off it could be a tough night for Dems if D voters opt to stay home 

I think the poor white low information voter in Clark county who voted for Hillary in 2016.  Will be more inclined to support Trump at this point.  Trump voters are loud and proud and peer pressure is a real thing.  Everyone loves a winner.

The same reason Obama won in 2012 will be the reason Trump wins in 2020.

I have no idea if that will help Heller at all.

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17 hours ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Unless something breaks within the next couple weeks, no way will there will be anything more coming from Mueller until after the election because the last thing he wants to do is look like another Comey. OTOH, now that Manafort has cut a deal, it's likely Mueller will be coming out with info for months thereafter.

The difference between looking like Comey and simply continuing with the investigation and issuing indictments when necessary is that Trump isn't up for election this year. Comey re-opened (some say he was forced to) into a Presidential candidate mere weeks before the election. 

Now, I don't think we'll see much from his office over the next 6+ weeks leading up into the election... but if something did come out, it wouldn't be in the same category as what happened weeks before the Presidential election. 

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16 hours ago, bluerules009 said:

If the economy is good on election day.

I suspect the Republicans expand their majority in the Senate.   They hold on in NV and AZ and flip something.

 

If the economy is bad on election day.  I think republicans might lose the Senate.  

 

I don't think this Kavenaugh thing matters much if they approve him a month before election day.

LOL - WHAT? 

The economy is doing about as good as it possibly can right now.  Its not going to change in 6 week here.  geez

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The real question is NOT will the Dems take the Senate, there would have to be something catastrophic for the Republicans to lose the Senate.  The Democratic party leaders (Schumer, Pelosi, Waters) are actually hurting incumbent Democrats in the Senate. 

The Dems are leading in the House polls, the biggest issue is the large number of Republican incumbents not running.  And what going to happen with N.Carolina?  
And even if the Dems do win the House, they would have to win really big to try and impeach Trump and he wouldn't be convicted in Senate anyway.  

Congress is already impotent, having a Dem House and Republican Senate may not make a huge difference but it will force some compromise, which the Dems have not been willing to do thus far at all.  Regardless I don't see a Democratic House being much of an impediment against Trump.  It will give him a good scapegoat though.  

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21 hours ago, mugtang said:

It all comes down to Kavanaugh at this point.  If he is withdrawn the GOP will keep the Senate and will pick up Montana, Indiana, Florida, Missouri and North Dakota while only losing Nevada.  If they push Kavanaugh through the people will view him as tainted.  In that instance the GOP will lose Nevada, Arizona and maybe Texas.  They will pick up Montana & Indiana but that’s it.  In that situation the Dems will control the House and Senate. 

At this point, Mueller wont release anything until after the midterms.  

The GOP isn't winning in Montana running the carpetbagger they're running. Tester might be hated by Trump but he's a Montnanan ultimately. The other guy isn't. That's hurting him. Any other candidate....Zinke even, would have beaten him IMO. But not some Maryland developer who plays farmer on his 20 acres out by Glendive somewhere.

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3 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

The GOP isn't winning in Montana running the carpetbagger they're running. Tester might be hated by Trump but he's a Montnanan ultimately. The other guy isn't. That's hurting him. Any other candidate....Zinke even, would have beaten him IMO. But not some Maryland developer who plays farmer on his 20 acres out by Glendive somewhere.

I defer to you. I admit I’m not as up to date on Montana politics as I should be. 

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6 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I defer to you. I admit I’m not as up to date on Montana politics as I should be. 

If Zinke had run for Senate and not been Interior Secretary he would have beaten Tester IMO. Even Judge Fagg (yes that's his real name. he lived up the street from my grandparents  for years and years) would have been more formidable of an opponent, had he won the primary. 

But the Maryland Developer gets all the out of state money so here we are. I think Tester wins by 3-4 percent. The farmer/ranchers hate Rosedale even. The only people he'll win are the Jesus Freaks and some establishment republican votes in places like Billings and Great Falls. But Tester will ransack him in the Western parts of the state. 

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2 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

If Zinke had run for Senate and not been Interior Secretary he would have beaten Tester IMO. Even Judge Fagg (yes that's his real name. he lived up the street from my grandparents  for years and years) would have been more formidable of an opponent, had he won the primary. 

But the Maryland Developer gets all the out of state money so here we are. I think Tester wins by 3-4 percent. The farmer/ranchers hate Rosedale even. The only people he'll win are the Jesus Freaks and some establishment republican votes in places like Billings and Great Falls. But Tester will ransack him in the Western parts of the state. 

I will admit a Montana Democrat is significantly different than a California Democrat. He probably more of a traditional Republican (not the current GOP) 

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15 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I will admit a Montana Democrat is significantly different than a California Democrat. He probably more of a traditional Republican (not the current GOP) 

Absolutely. They have to be in order to win there. Max Baucus is another example. 

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1 hour ago, Joe from WY said:

Absolutely. They have to be in order to win there. Max Baucus is another example. 

I was going to bring up that name in regards to Montana.

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20 hours ago, UNLV2001 said:

Douglas County is about the most GOP leaning county in NV with any amount of votes (toss out Esmeralda because they have about 8- total voters) Lyon is Heller's home county and Storey will go GOP by a big margin........Rosen has to hold Heller as close to 50% in Washoe to win or she will have to pull close to 60% in Clark - Odds are Carson will go GOP like it probably has in the last 20 cycles 

A northern candidate can win Washoe and lose the election.........a southerner has a tougher time because of the 'homerism" voters in Washoe 

In 2016 Catherine Cortez-Masto (CCM) lost to Joe Heck 97,433 to 95,750 in Washoe County.........I Clark CCM won 386,179 to 303,734 

Douglas County went to Heck (pun intended ^_^) 17,587 to 8,410 - thats a over a 2 to 1 margin which isn't unusual from Douglas County ..........in Lyon Heck won 15,231 to 6,323 almost at a 3 to 1 margin.........and Carson went for Heck by 13,027 to 9,741 ...and Heck won Storey 1,551 to 791 another 2-1 margin.

Bottom line is Rosen is going to have to at least get the CCM numbers from Clark and try to lose Washoe by only about 3% tops - And with Heller being a northerner, I don't see Rosen winning Washoe County which would mean running up here Clark win to around 60% 

Washoe County is the "swing county in Nevada..........Clark leans Dem, the 15 rurals lean Rep and Washoe swing voters decide statewide elections 

Clark County has a well known "system" where i would be surprised if Rosen didn't get high numbers in Vegas possibly not as high as Clinton but maybe in that area. Heller isn't really popular among voters in Washoe County. However we have seen where likeable ratings don't translate to voting against someone. 

But my overall point was that if you get enough people in those counties to vote for the Republican candidate, unless the Democrat really runs wild in Clark County, they can overcome the advantage from Clark the Democrat will have. Its going to hinge on voters like me, who are undecided or not belonging to either party really when voting day comes up. However given where we are today, I think if the vote was today, my gut tells me Heller pulls it out over Rosen. 

In a recent poll though for CCM, she hasn't been on the job that long but her unfavorable's are starting to outpace her favorable ratings right now.

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For presidential elections, what has been noticed is people will usually vote their pocket books. With mid-terms it used to be a critique on how the president is doing, but in recent years it really hasn't meant the same thing anymore. Especially with the turnover Congress has been seeing lately. 

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20 hours ago, UNLV2001 said:

Not so sure the economy will boost the GOP that much...........this election could be a statement on trump. Remains to be seen, but if the economy were issue #1 to voters, statewide GOP'ers would be seeing better poll numbers - And Dems have been adding more voters than GOP for about 6 months...........in fact last month the GOP was 3rd behind Dems and NP voter additions

It will come down to indivdual states. In one of the recent polls that was released for the senate race here in Nevada, Economy was seen as #1 issue, Healthcare #2 issue and then Trump was #3.

I think the Democrats are hoping that it is a statement on Trump, I really think that is what they are hanging their hats on right now. Otherwise they really haven't put out any message this election season, a lot of it has been Trump...Trump.........Trump.

It is kind of to late to change that statement now so they will stick with what they have. I mean when some candidates platforms are talking about impeaching Trump, just seems to me they have nothing else to run on. Now if the senate confirmation for SC gets drawn out, Dems could end up using that during the last two months.

 

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1 minute ago, wolfpack1 said:

It will come down to indivdual states. In one of the recent polls that was released for the senate race here in Nevada, Economy was seen as #1 issue, Healthcare #2 issue and then Trump was #3.

I think the Democrats are hoping that it is a statement on Trump, I really think that is what they are hanging their hats on right now. Otherwise they really haven't put out any message this election season, a lot of it has been Trump...Trump.........Trump.

It is kind of to late to change that statement now so they will stick with what they have. I mean when some candidates platforms are talking about impeaching Trump, just seems to me they have nothing else to run on. Now if the senate confirmation for SC gets drawn out, Dems could end up using that during the last two months.

 

Heller has become a trump fan boy.........but he's got high negatives due to his healthcare votes and he's got low popularity even among GOPer's - thats why trump had to convince Danny Tarkanian to get out of he Senate primary, because Heller was vulnerable 

Not sure the GOP tax cut for the wealthy is playing all that well either 

Going to be a tight race between Rosen & Heller.........I'm thinking inside 1.5% 

Another close race will be Danny T vs Susie Lee in CD3, which is Henderson and the western/southcentral side of the LV area ........can perennial loser Tark finally win one or will he go down to his 6th or 7th defeat!?!? GOPer's get him primary wins, then he gets kicked to the curb in general elections.........Tark is running on a trump fan boy platform.

Way I see it is, if we see a LOT of females voting, it will not be a plus for the GOP ...........if the female vote falls into normal voting ranges, then it's wide open, but I don't see any wipeouts in NV's federal or statewide races

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23 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

Heller has become a trump fan boy.........but he's got high negatives due to his healthcare votes and he's got low popularity even among GOPer's - thats why trump had to convince Danny Tarkanian to get out of he Senate primary, because Heller was vulnerable 

Not sure the GOP tax cut for the wealthy is playing all that well either 

Going to be a tight race between Rosen & Heller.........I'm thinking inside 1.5% 

Another close race will be Danny T vs Susie Lee in CD3, which is Henderson and the western/southcentral side of the LV area ........can perennial loser Tark finally win one or will he go down to his 6th or 7th defeat!?!? GOPer's get him primary wins, then he gets kicked to the curb in general elections.........Tark is running on a trump fan boy platform.

Way I see it is, if we see a LOT of females voting, it will not be a plus for the GOP ...........if the female vote falls into normal voting ranges, then it's wide open, but I don't see any wipeouts in NV's federal or statewide races

And Rosen has become kind of a Pelosi fan girl.........That could hurt her more than Heller being a Trump fan boy because Pelosi is like not that popular and funny part is she won't even admit that she could lose her leadership position next year.

Personally I don't think Tark stands a chance in that race. I think Lee wins in a landslide. I would be surprised if Tark is able to keep it close.

In some polling the tax cut doesn't seem to be coming up for the statewide race the big one is health care which is why you are seeing all those ads from both sides on it. 

However right now.........my gut tells me right now Heller wins the election possibly by 2-3 points I think. 

 

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5 minutes ago, wolfpack1 said:

And Rosen has become kind of a Pelosi fan girl.........That could hurt her more than Heller being a Trump fan boy because Pelosi is like not that popular and funny part is she won't even admit that she could lose her leadership position next year.

Personally I don't think Tark stands a chance in that race. I think Lee wins in a landslide. I would be surprised if Tark is able to keep it close.

In some polling the tax cut doesn't seem to be coming up for the statewide race the big one is health care which is why you are seeing all those ads from both sides on it. 

However right now.........my gut tells me right now Heller wins the election possibly by 2-3 points I think. 

 

The GOP is pumping the Pelosi thing......that's a subject that only appeal to GOP base voters......just like statewide GOPer's are trying to sell the "Californiacation" of NV - GOP doesn't have much to stand on unless they go full trump 

Tark has his appeal, but the limits seem to be the hardcores GOP base voters............Tark beat Roberson in the 2016 CD3 primary and then lost to Rosen in a close general election. Tarks string of losses might be wearing thin among voters who aren't GOP hardcores so him losing again wouldn't be a surprise.

Gov race will come down to Washoe vs Clark numbers.........Sisolak is from Clark County, but has his detractors...........Laxalt is carpetbagging on his mom's last name & has loved in NV since 2011 and Laxalt has zero policy positions that he can flesh out. Guess if NV politics don't work out Laxalt can switch to his dad's last name and run as Adam Domenici in New Mexico ( he can try the "legacy" thing and run on Pete Domenici's name in NM )

The other statewide races will be close.........two Clark candidates for AG

Lt Gov race could hinge on north south split with Marshall (north) vs Roberson (south) ........tho Roberson got beat by Danny T in 2016 CD3 primary and Roberson ran a worthless recall attempt of 3 state senators in Clark County that failed & is failing in desperate attempt to overturn 2016 election

State Assembly will stay Dem majority ..........State Senate will be close 11-10 split either way, or 9-12 at most either way

Treasurer, Sec of State = coin flip if they get down ballot bumps should either a red or blue wave develop 

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