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the former 1066

The demise of the G5

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If Texas and Oklahoma head off for greener pastures as GOR expiration date gets closer,  you could see a few G5 schools called up to the major leagues for the survival of the B12.   Outside of that, it is what it is.  Greed drives college football and the big boys aren't going to let the little guys in for a chance at a national title if they aren't forced to.  A lawsuit sounds like a decent idea, but frankly i don't see a positive outcome.  Maybe the best hope, and it's a long shot, is for an expanded playoff with 8 teams and 1 slot going to the best of G5.  

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6 minutes ago, alum93 said:

If Texas and Oklahoma head off for greener pastures as GOR expiration date gets closer,  you could see a few G5 schools called up to the major leagues for the survival of the B12.   Outside of that, it is what it is.  Greed drives college football and the big boys aren't going to let the little guys in for a chance at a national title if they aren't forced to.  A lawsuit sounds like a decent idea, but frankly i don't see a positive outcome.  Maybe the best hope, and it's a long shot, is for an expanded playoff with 8 teams and 1 slot going to the best of G5.  

I don't see the P5 taking in new teams. We have two choices: A} fixed and endless second class status, B} a best of the rest conference. Apparently many are willing to accept option A.

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13 minutes ago, alum93 said:

If Texas and Oklahoma head off for greener pastures as GOR expiration date gets closer,  you could see a few G5 schools called up to the major leagues for the survival of the B12.   Outside of that, it is what it is.  Greed drives college football and the big boys aren't going to let the little guys in for a chance at a national title if they aren't forced to.  A lawsuit sounds like a decent idea, but frankly i don't see a positive outcome.  Maybe the best hope, and it's a long shot, is for an expanded playoff with 8 teams and 1 slot going to the best of G5.  

If Texas and Oklahoma head for greener pastures the Big 12 will cease to be a Power Conference and we will have P4 and G6 (in my humble opinion).  

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14 minutes ago, RogueStout said:

If Texas and Oklahoma head for greener pastures the Big 12 will cease to be a Power Conference and we will have P4 and G6 (in my humble opinion).  

You are probably right about P4, but that is the only realistic chance i see at any current G5 team moving up.  I think the MWC is set up nicely with regional rivalries.  I just don't think a best of the rest would be in the best interest long term of teams from the MWC or AAC.  The MWC also has a chance to be a solid annual 2 bid conference in basketball with occasional 3 bids in very good years if the middle of the pack gets stronger.  There will always be 2 or 3 really bad teams in both football and basketball.  A realistic goal is stronger teams in the 4-9 slots in both sports.

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8 hours ago, BleedRebelRed said:

Neither the MWC or AAC has that cornerstone school you speak of... but one exists.  The LDS Church is worth an estimated $40 billion and collects $8 billion in tithing every single year.  If the leadership realizes that their BYU brand is losing its value and decided to be proactive by forming a new nationwide conference and network, BYU could one day become equal to Utah again.

I have expressed this opinion before and I know it is unpopular with you front range Craig Thompson loyalists.  I have a strong dislike of BYU but we will welcome them to the axis of evil if it benefits us.

 

BYU is nowhere even close to being able to anchor a Power 5 level Conference. Could they help anchor a "Best of the Rest" Conference? Sure. But that would not be given access to the CFP (as it exists today), nor would it command even close to the television revenue that the P5 Conferences receive.

Look at the schools I listed as examples: Michigan, Florida, Texas. Every P5 Conference has MULTIPLE schools like that. BYU is nowhere even close to any of those schools from an Athletic relevance or income perspective.

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There IS NO best of the rest.  And the whole P6 thing is not going to happen.  The MWC was working to be considered a BCS conference - remember?  We were moving ahead of the Big East, getting ready to add Boise St. etc.  and then they went and changed all the rules.  Their not going to share their money.  Right now the best we can hope for is that one great team comes out and gets a New Years day bowl and thats what we're getting.  

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13 hours ago, Antarctic79 said:

I see no reason for the best of the MWC and AAC combine to form a conference that expands the entire U.S.  The P5 is set, there will never be a P6.

No reason to increase school travel costs for one sport.  I like regional conference's where you play each other in all sports, not just football (bring back Hawaii for all sports). 

I think the most interesting idea floating around right now in CFB is streaming companies talking about only doing deals with individual schools, not conferences.  If this happens, the P5 will become more divided financially with the Oregon State and Indiana's of the world all of a sudden looking more and more like G5 schools in the arms race.  I think select G5 schools like Boise State and BYU could close the gap a little with the P5 schools with this model, but not anything significant.

Cobbling together the best of those leagues just doesn't give you the money that P5 schools get.  There's nobody to leech off of.  Boise isn't worth 40 million to their league a year like USC or Oklahoma is.  Neither are any of the Florida directional schools, Memphis, BYU, or Houston.

It makes sense if you're cobbling together a bunch of teams that were left behind, like Kansas State and Texas Tech, but even then that won't net you a P5 type TV deal because Texas or Oklahoma will be gone.  It's better than what you have now though.

12 hours ago, slappy said:

It will take a lawsuit, not a public opinion campaign to give all student  athletes an equal shot to compete for a championship.  It will happen sooner than later.  

Stop being silly.  They'll just expand the playoffs to 8 and leave it at that with a guaranteed spot for the G5 team.  They'll be the 8th seed every year, and face Alabama in the first round.  Every year.  Problem solved.

 

11 hours ago, Nevada Convert said:

The G5 is not dying a slow death. Get some exercise and you’ll feel better. There are some programs in the SBC, CUSA and MAC that are having a little trouble with things like the cost of school payments, but that’s not a problem for most. 

Which G5 re-did their TV contract and it was less than before? Was that CUSA?

Yes, they are.

 

11 hours ago, BleedRebelRed said:

Neither the MWC or AAC has that cornerstone school you speak of... but one exists.  The LDS Church is worth an estimated $40 billion and collects $8 billion in tithing every single year.  If the leadership realizes that their BYU brand is losing its value and decided to be proactive by forming a new nationwide conference and network, BYU could one day become equal to Utah again.

I have expressed this opinion before and I know it is unpopular with you front range Craig Thompson loyalists.  I have a strong dislike of BYU but we will welcome them to the axis of evil if it benefits us.

 

That ship sailed when the athletic director made sure BYUtv replays were available for the fanbase instead of getting rid of that crap to join the Big 12. 

BYU football will never be the same again.  We're circling the drain slowly and have been for nearly a decade.  The money is there.  The product is not.

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3 hours ago, alum93 said:

If Texas and Oklahoma head off for greener pastures as GOR expiration date gets closer,  you could see a few G5 schools called up to the major leagues for the survival of the B12.   Outside of that, it is what it is.  Greed drives college football and the big boys aren't going to let the little guys in for a chance at a national title if they aren't forced to.  A lawsuit sounds like a decent idea, but frankly i don't see a positive outcome.  Maybe the best hope, and it's a long shot, is for an expanded playoff with 8 teams and 1 slot going to the best of G5.   

Last time we threatened them with a lawsuit, they just raided every team that was half decent and put us in the situation we are in now.

 

3 hours ago, RogueStout said:

If Texas and Oklahoma head for greener pastures the Big 12 will cease to be a Power Conference and we will have P4 and G6 (in my humble opinion).  

That's your BoR scenario.  It still doesn't mean P5 or much more money.  People aren't going to pay much for this league.

West: BYU, Boise, TCU, CSU, Kansas State, SDSU

East: Houston, Memphis, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Central Florida, West Virginia

I have taken the liberty of kicking Baylor out in this scenario, because they allowed their football team to rape the entire campus.  We'd be thrilled about that league.  WVU, KSU, ISU, TCU, and Texas Tech would not.  It would be a huge paycut for them to get off the teet of Texas and Oklahoma.

 

1 hour ago, pokerider said:

There IS NO best of the rest.  And the whole P6 thing is not going to happen.  The MWC was working to be considered a BCS conference - remember?  We were moving ahead of the Big East, getting ready to add Boise St. etc.  and then they went and changed all the rules.  Their not going to share their money.  Right now the best we can hope for is that one great team comes out and gets a New Years day bowl and thats what we're getting.  

NY6 is the ceiling.  That's why I keep thinking BYU should just rejoin here.  That would be a fun season if you had a NY6 year and the G5 bid. 

 

18 minutes ago, ViAggie said:

I vote European Futbal rules!  Traditional conferences be damned, the best stay elevated in the Premier League, the bottom drops down, and the upper-echelon of the lower rungs move up!  

That would be awesome if they were interested in actual competition and performance.

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20 hours ago, RogueStout said:

It wouldn’t do any good to take the best programs from each Conference. The problem with all the G5 Conferemces is that there are no cornerstone schools like Texas/Florida/Michigan etc with the history, fan base and money to build around.

We could be better at Football than the Big 12 or PAC 12 and we would still never get even close to the TV money they get.

True but that's not the point. The point is members of a BOR conference could get triple the TV revenue they're getting now. Not only that but considerably more NCAA tournament income because of higher quality basketball. Undoubtedly also more bowl game money although that financial metric doesn't mean much.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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If you look at TV ratings, what actually drives revenue, there is little difference between the top of the AAC/MW and the bottom half of the P5. So while the idea that a 6th conference would have parity is false, the truth is a 6th conference with the right members would be closer to the P5 than the G5, both in performance and in $$$. The problem is both the AAC and MW added too quickly during the last round leaving both with dead weight.

If you added BSU, BYU, SDSU, and CSU or FSU  to the AAC and split the conference into 4 team divisions that conf would be worth a lot more than either the MW or AAC is on paper currently. It would also make the American true to name. Ideally you drop the bottom 4 from both and just merge them.

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

If you look at TV ratings, what actually drives revenue, there is little difference between the top of the AAC/MW and the bottom half of the P5. So while the idea that a 6th conference would have parity is false, the truth is a 6th conference with the right members would be closer to the P5 than the G5, both in performance and in $$$. The problem is both the AAC and MW added too quickly during the last round leaving both with dead weight.

If you added BSU, BYU, SDSU, and CSU or FSU  to the AAC and split the conference into 4 team divisions that conf would be worth a lot more than either the MW or AAC is on paper currently. It would also make the American true to name. Ideally you drop the bottom 4 from both and just merge them.

but sjsu?

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As a practical matter, until the P5 renegotiate their TV deals and the Big 12's grant of rights provision expire in 7-8 years, it can't be predicted whether the G5s are already gasping for air or whether they will continue to die a slow death. I think it will be the latter. However, if SDSU is still a member of this conference and continues to slug along doing nothing more than challenging for conference titles and finishing outside the top 25 with occasional victories over P5 opponents, the money I've donated so faithfully for the last 20 years will cease. Because although that level of "success" appears to placate most of the school's big bucks alumni, it's unsatisfactory to me.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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1 hour ago, Jack Bauer said:

Cobbling together the best of those leagues just doesn't give you the money that P5 schools get.  There's nobody to leech off of.  Boise isn't worth 40 million to their league a year like USC or Oklahoma is.  Neither are any of the Florida directional schools, Memphis, BYU, or Houston.

It makes sense if you're cobbling together a bunch of teams that were left behind, like Kansas State and Texas Tech, but even then that won't net you a P5 type TV deal because Texas or Oklahoma will be gone.  It's better than what you have now though.

Stop being silly.  They'll just expand the playoffs to 8 and leave it at that with a guaranteed spot for the G5 team.  They'll be the 8th seed every year, and face Alabama in the first round.  Every year.  Problem solved.

 

Yes, they are.

 

That ship sailed when the athletic director made sure BYUtv replays were available for the fanbase instead of getting rid of that crap to join the Big 12. 

BYU football will never be the same again.  We're circling the drain slowly and have been for nearly a decade.  The money is there.  The product is not.

Prove it.

kat.jpg

 

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30 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

As a practical matter, until the P5 renegotiate their TV deals and the Big 12's grant of rights provision expire in 7-8 years, it can't be predicted whether the G5s are already gasping for air or whether they will continue to die a slow death. I think it will be the latter. However, if SDSU is still a member of this conference and continues to slug along doing nothing more than challenging for conference titles and finishing outside the top 25 with occasional victories over P5 opponents, the money I've donated so faithfully for the last 20 years will cease. Because although that level of "success" appears to placate most of the school's big bucks alumni, it's unsatisfactory to me.

What specifically would keep you donating? 

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1 hour ago, Jack Bauer said:

 

Stop being silly.  They'll just expand the playoffs to 8 and leave it at that with a guaranteed spot for the G5 team.  They'll be the 8th seed every year, and face Alabama in the first round.  Every year.  Problem solved.

They will not expand to 8 with out pressure.  They won’t do it from kindness or due to some public pressure.  Inclusion will come from a law suit.  Then yes, they go to 8.   Won’t happen unless there are lawyers involved.  

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7 minutes ago, Nevada Convert said:

Prove it.

Just look at the G5 leagues having to take a haircut on their most recent TV deals.  The writing is on the wall, man.

How much money is there in putting games on Facebook or Twitter?  I can't imagine it's anything all that great.

The premier bowl for this leagues champion is going to get gobbled up by the Pac12.  There are no bowl tie ins that are good at all at this point for the MWC, unless your top team makes the Access Bowl.  That's happened once so far in the 5 or so years we've been doing this.

This is like the nonsense you used to peddle around about how football out West was just going to exponentially grow and overtake other places because there's room for growth around here.  Another of your many Convert myths.

 

1 minute ago, slappy said:

They will not expand to 8 with out pressure.  They won’t do it from kindness or due to some public pressure.  Inclusion will come from a law suit.  Then yes, they go to 8.   Won’t happen unless there are lawyers involved.  

I think they will.  The PAC doesn't like getting left out every year.

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8 minutes ago, RogueStout said:

What specifically would keep you donating? 

1. An Aztec Warrior Stadium. (Likelihood: Strong. I'm not sure the West Campus initiative will pass in November but after reading a recent article by Voice of San Diego's Scott Lewis, who has been the man on the issue, the Soccer City proponents have basically lost all their political support as they overplayed their hand. So even if both initiatives fail, SDSU should be able to purchase at least half the Qualcomm property from the city); AND

2. SDSU getting out of the MWC in favor of a reworked Big 12 or a BOR conference. (Likelihood: Moderate. A lot has to do with who will replace Rocky and when. I suspect Rocky will coach another 4-5 years and then SDSU must replace him with a young up-and-coming HC rather than just elevate Jeff Horton to the job); OR

3. SDSU remaining in the MWC for Olys and going independent for football because SDSU has raised its visibility in that sport to where Boise now is. (Likelihood: Somewhere between strong and moderate. One thing I know will meet with considerable disapproval here but which I think is going to be almost essential for MWC survival is for the conference to allow BYU to return without having to also bring back its football program and to also allow Boise and SDSU to withdraw their football programs if they so choose.)

Boom goes the dynamite.

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