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mugtang

We’re in a full blown trade war

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7 hours ago, bluerules009 said:

China will blink first and if they don't it might end in revolution.  They have to have access to U.S. markets to function economically at all.  The U.S. is far more diversified and we have unfettered access to the biggest market for goods in the world without any worries of tariffs.

Yes, 

China has much more at risk in a trade war than we do. They have made attempts to diversify , but their economy is still largely dependent on exports to the U.S. 

China also doesn't import enough from us to be able to match the latest round of tariffs dollar for dollar. 

A trade war can sting us , but China has much more to lose than we do. They will blink first. 

The following article does a fair job explaining the situation IMO 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shocked-by-latest-u-s-tariffs-beijing-seeks-retaliatory-action-1531313522?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

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1 hour ago, happycamper said:

Last time a big Asian country had a financial meltdown it had a pretty bad effect on us too. It's not really a win to see China go in to revolution and hit another recession that we caused. 

When was this? 

The only time I can remember a financial meltdown in Asia was in the late 90's and our economy was booming then. 

 

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Imagine the benefits to our economy if China does blink and make reforms to trade with us on a more equal footing. Previous presidents have been way too timid about this. 

Same with Europe. 

If true free trade was allowed to take hold, all participants win. 

 

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17 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

When was this? 

The only time I can remember a financial meltdown in Asia was in the late 90's and our economy was booming then. 

 

Yeah, that crisis was more or less responsible for the 1999 crash...

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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12 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

Look at our trade deficits. 

Trade deficits aren’t screwing us over.  We are a consumer nation. We will always import more than we export which means we will always have a trade deficit.  Where we are getting screwed, at least with the EU, is the weighted average of tariffs.  The EU charges us, on average 5% for all the goods we export to the EU.  We only charge 3.5% on average for goods we import from the EU. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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2 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

Umm we didn't have a crash in 1999. The economy was actually pretty damn good that year. 

 

You're right, it started in Q1 2000. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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I actually agree with Trump that China was a problem.  I thought Obama should have been way tougher on them and labeled them a currency manipulator.  They have been playing games and we should call them on those games.  

The problem that I have with Trump is that he is all bluster and photo ops and had no strategy for dealing with this complex situation.  His only tactic is bullying and that one trick pony thinks that is going to give him an advantage in every situation.  He is also rather dumb....

How does it serve our strategic interest to get into a fight with Canada and the EU if we wanted to get into it with China?   Why isn't he trying to change NAFTA to make it better for workers and the environment throughout the trade block.  Doing that would have also probably encouraged the EU to open up more since they have protections for their workers.   If we are going to get tough with China wouldn't it be better if we could have some allies who could help to pick up some of the slack?  Wouldn't renegotiating NAFTA to encourage wage growth in Mexico help a lot of issues in this country?  

Trump is opening up wars on multiple fronts and making bad strategic moves....because he has no plan other than bluster or to dust off the trade playbook from the early 1900s. 

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One thing all can agree on is that a protracted trade war only has negative consequences for the economy long-term.

IF and only if things can be resolved to some satisfaction before it plays out in the long game, is Trump's strategy at all sound.

Good: German Automakers /Govt caving

Bad: So far, everything else.

Canada will get back in line and like it, because with very little pain to us, their economy can be completely destroyed. 
Won't be nearly so easy with everyone else.

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3 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

What is the situation with Japan? We import tons of their cars and electronics. Do we have an even trade agreement with them? 

Actually, I'm not sure if we are a net importer or exporter of Japanese cars.

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3 minutes ago, renoskier said:

Actually, I'm not sure if we are a net importer or exporter of Japanese cars.

That's gotten really muddy as our prior trade restrictions/inducements with Japanese Car Mfgrs have caused all of the bigs to build auto plants here on US Soil.

Your Toyota or Nissan is probably assembled right here in the USA.


Not sure what the current situation is with trade defecits/autos and Japan. Certainly not what it was 30 years ago.

 

EDIT: We have an auto Trade Deficit with Japan, but it's chicken feed compared to the one back in the 80s and early 90s.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-surging-car-exports-raise-risk-of-trade-fight-with-trump-1524139491

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5 minutes ago, renoskier said:

Actually, I'm not sure if we are a net importer or exporter of Japanese cars.

When I was in Japan the only American built cars I saw were on the US Military bases. 

Cars are weird there, most of them I don't think would be street legal here. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Thomas said:

That's gotten really muddy as our prior trade restrictions/inducements with Japanese Car Mfgrs have caused all of the bigs to build auto plants here on US Soil.

Your Toyota or Nissan is probably assembled right here in the USA.


Not sure what the current situation is with trade defecits/autos and Japan. Certainly not what it was 30 years ago.

 

EDIT: We have an auto Trade Deficit with Japan, but it's chicken feed compared to the one back in the 80s and early 90s.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-surging-car-exports-raise-risk-of-trade-fight-with-trump-1524139491

There are quite a few Japanese auto plants here in the US. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Japanese auto mfgrs employ more US labor than US auto mfgrs. I would guess it is at least pretty close.

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2 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Assuming we have an equitable trade deal with Japan, whom we do a lot of business with, why can’t we do so with the rest of the world? 

Because unlike the military situation with Japan, we're not the "world's military".  Japan has only a token defense force, due to their post WWII constitution, which we required.

We ARE the Japanese Military, basically. Not so with the rest of the world.

 

Japan is locked into having to deal with us, as a result of their defense situation; that gives us leverage we don't have abroad.

 

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44 minutes ago, Thomas said:

One thing all can agree on is that a protracted trade war only has negative consequences for the economy long-term.

IF and only if things can be resolved to some satisfaction before it plays out in the long game, is Trump's strategy at all sound.

Good: German Automakers /Govt caving

Bad: So far, everything else.

Canada will get back in line and like it, because with very little pain to us, their economy can be completely destroyed. 
Won't be nearly so easy with everyone else.

So what are we just the abusive spouse country now?  Kicking the dog because we can so he can remember who is boss?

Screwing with Canada and Mexico was really dumb if we wanted to take on the EU and/or China.  Canada and the EU would probably be delighted to work more closely together and exclude the USA if necessary.

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3 minutes ago, TheBigAwesome said:

 

Where's a better trained John Hinckley, Jr. when you need him?

 

Ever since Jodie Foster came out as a lesbian, the air has really been taken out of that balloon...

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