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thedude15

Dam should have put some money on Nevada at 40:1 to win NCAAT

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On that same site I looked at before it is now 14:1. I know the twins returned and they signed a big recruit but I was pretty confident (just a gut feeling no sources lol) the twins would return. Darn if sports betting were legal in California I probably would have placed a small bet when it was 40:1 (my yearly trip to Vegas is not till August). 

Not gonna touch that now. If anything it seems a bit low to me. To me 20:1 seems more reasonable. I mean it just takes one bad game/injury in the first three rounds (games they should be favored in) or losing to a solid team in the last three rounds (I am sure at the very least the last two games would be vs elite teams). Not worth it at 14:1.  Plus if I DID bet at 14:1 and they somehow won the whole thing I would be more pissed at myself for not placing a bet when it was 40:1 than winning the 14:1 bet lol.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, BacksThePack said:

I say Vegas doesn't think they are that high, but are trying to balance the bets on the mid major de jour

Agreed. I think 20:1 might be more what Vegas thinks but a bunch of little guys (in terms of betting) are placing money on the fun team (a mid major/a team that just made a deep tourney run last year). I was gonna be one of those little guys but not anymore lol. 

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8 minutes ago, thedude15 said:

Agreed. I think 20:1 might be more what Vegas thinks but a bunch of little guys (in terms of betting) are placing money on the fun team (a mid major/a team that just made a deep tourney run last year). I was gonna be one of those little guys but not anymore lol. 

Murray had an article on this last month https://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2018/06/07/nevada-basketball-bettors-heavy-favorite-win-ncaa-title/681174002/

Nevada has been bet very hard, being an instate team is obviously helping them. So yeah they’ve lowered the odds to offset heavy betting

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A team that should have lost by 30 points (if Cincy had competent coaching) in the round of 32 is somehow going to win the National Championship?

I doubt Nevada even makes the NCAA Tournament next year.

Don't throw your money away.  They are not good.

super-rebel-mascot-clipart-collection.jpg

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20 minutes ago, RebelRobert said:

A team that should have lost by 30 points (if Cincy had competent coaching) in the round of 32 is somehow going to win the National Championship?

I doubt Nevada even makes the NCAA Tournament next year.

Don't throw your money away.  They are not good.

super-rebel-mascot-clipart-collection.jpg

 

41C63F71-6CF2-44A9-B965-D4B42DF8736D.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Jaredcg said:

Murray had an article on this last month https://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2018/06/07/nevada-basketball-bettors-heavy-favorite-win-ncaa-title/681174002/

Nevada has been bet very hard, being an instate team is obviously helping them. So yeah they’ve lowered the odds to offset heavy betting

yeah my "plan" if it was 40:1 was to bet $250. Then you are really just betting on Nevada to make the final four. IF they made the final four I would bet 2k against them in the final 4 and then 2-3k against them in the finals (whatever is the break even math). Thus if they lost in the final four or the finals I would have gotten a free weekend in Vegas. IF they ended up winning I would net 4k (after subtracting losing bets/cost of Vegas trip).  Now I would have to bet $715 to make that plan work. To risky... Sure I think Nevada has a decent shot for the final four but I am not that confident. 

Oh well. I think I will take that money and put it on Fresno to win the MWC in football. That is only 5:1 odds or so which means I would have to lay around $500 down (ie so then if they made the MW champ game I could get a free trip to Vegas by bet 1.5k on Boise to win. Netting $500 and a free trip to Las Vegas if Fresno wins). 

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5 hours ago, Jaredcg said:

Murray had an article on this last month https://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2018/06/07/nevada-basketball-bettors-heavy-favorite-win-ncaa-title/681174002/

Nevada has been bet very hard, being an instate team is obviously helping them. So yeah they’ve lowered the odds to offset heavy betting

 

4 hours ago, thedude15 said:

yeah my "plan" if it was 40:1 was to bet $250. Then you are really just betting on Nevada to make the final four. IF they made the final four I would bet 2k against them in the final 4 and then 2-3k against them in the finals (whatever is the break even math). Thus if they lost in the final four or the finals I would have gotten a free weekend in Vegas. IF they ended up winning I would net 4k (after subtracting losing bets/cost of Vegas trip).  Now I would have to bet $715 to make that plan work. To risky... Sure I think Nevada has a decent shot for the final four but I am not that confident. 

Oh well. I think I will take that money and put it on Fresno to win the MWC in football. That is only 5:1 odds or so which means I would have to lay around $500 down (ie so then if they made the MW champ game I could get a free trip to Vegas by bet 1.5k on Boise to win. Netting $500 and a free trip to Las Vegas if Fresno wins). 

Although it's always sexy to hear about someone who has a chance to cash a 100-1 ticket, overall the odds on "future" bets are shit. The house "hold" is between 25-30%!

Other than the real longshots, 100-1 or more, it's almost always better to wait until the playoffs and then bet your team on the money line and let it roll from game to game.

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3 hours ago, renoskier said:

 

Although it's always sexy to hear about someone who has a chance to cash a 100-1 ticket, overall the odds on "future" bets are shit. The house "hold" is between 25-30%!

Other than the real longshots, 100-1 or more, it's almost always better to wait until the playoffs and then bet your team on the money line and let it roll from game to game.

Agreed but I don't have access to "legal" gambling. I am sure that will change soon but right now it is just my yearly trip to Vegas is the only time I can bet on sports (which is probably a good thing when I think about it lol).

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10 hours ago, RebelRobert said:

A team that should have lost by 30 points (if Cincy had competent coaching) in the round of 32 is somehow going to win the National Championship?

I doubt Nevada even makes the NCAA Tournament next year.

Don't throw your money away.  They are not good.

super-rebel-mascot-clipart-collection.jpg

I’ll bet you $1,000 we make the tournament this year.  

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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11 hours ago, RebelRobert said:

A team that should have lost by 30 points (if Cincy had competent coaching) in the round of 32 is somehow going to win the National Championship?

I doubt Nevada even makes the NCAA Tournament next year.

Don't throw your money away.  They are not good.

super-rebel-mascot-clipart-collection.jpg

Spot on Robert. You’re a genius. 

kat.jpg

 

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19 hours ago, thedude15 said:

On that same site I looked at before it is now 14:1. I know the twins returned and they signed a big recruit but I was pretty confident (just a gut feeling no sources lol) the twins would return. Darn if sports betting were legal in California I probably would have placed a small bet when it was 40:1 (my yearly trip to Vegas is not till August). 

Not gonna touch that now. If anything it seems a bit low to me. To me 20:1 seems more reasonable. I mean it just takes one bad game/injury in the first three rounds (games they should be favored in) or losing to a solid team in the last three rounds (I am sure at the very least the last two games would be vs elite teams). Not worth it at 14:1.  Plus if I DID bet at 14:1 and they somehow won the whole thing I would be more pissed at myself for not placing a bet when it was 40:1 than winning the 14:1 bet lol.

 

 

 

14:1 could still be a good value bet. According to your site what are the odds on the 'favorites '?

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1 hour ago, mugtang said:

I’ll bet you $1,000 we make the tournament this year.  

I don’t bet on student athletes and neither should you.

Enjoy the NIT if you get invited.  That is your best bet.

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11 hours ago, RebelRobert said:

A team that should have lost by 30 points (if Cincy had competent coaching) in the round of 32 is somehow going to win the National Championship?

I doubt Nevada even makes the NCAA Tournament next year.

Don't throw your money away.  They are not good.

super-rebel-mascot-clipart-collection.jpg

 

8CAAA813-0870-4DFB-ABE6-880AAE7EF2B6.jpeg

kat.jpg

 

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34 minutes ago, RebelRobert said:

I don’t bet on student athletes and neither should you.

Enjoy the NIT if you get invited.  That is your best bet.

Your troll game is weak. Step it up 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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