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LaradiseCowboy

NY6 predictions by CBS Sports

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29 minutes ago, pesik said:

they lose a lot on defense but most dont see it as a major impact, their defense has lost players for the last few years and always stilll have a good defense..how good their offense is, is normally the deciding factor in how good they are... and most are predicitng one of the best temple offense in a long time 

here's bill c/sbnation indeptth preview, he has them finishing second in the AAC east, and 9 wins...

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/4/20/17237976/temple-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

 the real key for them in the ny6 convo will be Maryland, that will show how good they are...and their schedule is back loaded if they get past Maryland it could be 7-0

So SB Nation has Temple at 6 or 7 wins. Why the NY6 talk?

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56 minutes ago, madmartigan said:

Now those two adjectives are debatable. What has he done that makes you say he's good or proven besides parlaying being Monte's son into jobs? He is a helluva great follow on twitter. That much I'll give him. Also, he has a hot wife. 

Well, he did a good job in his short time with the Raiders. He had a decent short turnaround at Tennessee and parlayed that into getting the USC gig. He did flame out a little there, but he didn't do bad job  and they were on MASSIVE probation at the time (He did have a 10 win season and finished in the top-5 there). 

I'm not saying he is a great coach, but for a school like FAU to get a football coach with that much Head Coaching experience, that is pretty rare. When he leaves (and he will... likely after this year), they will almost certainly be hiring a guy who has never been a HC before.

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21 minutes ago, Cincy said:

So SB Nation has Temple at 6 or 7 wins. Why the NY6 talk?

did you read what he actually wrote... he said he sees 9 wins, his s/p+ has 6 but it will more likely be 9

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2 minutes ago, pesik said:

did you read what he actually wrote... he said he sees 9 wins, his s/p+ has 6 but it will more likely be 9

So what’s the point of s/p+??

I see AT LEAST 3 losses on that schedule. I know you’re trying your hardest to pump up Temple, but it doesn’t add up. 

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Just now, Cincy said:

So what’s the point of s/p+??

I see AT LEAST 3 losses on that schedule. I know you’re trying your hardest to pump up Temple, but it doesn’t add up. 

i noted earlier that i wouldnt have temple in my top 5...but there are definitely a possibility..if they get past maryland they could be 8-0 (then it ucf, houston and usf)

and im a strong believer in momentum, culture (playing like you expect to win) and confidence affecting a game..at 8-0 they will definitely affect that...getting past maryland is the question (Maryland lost its qb to injury last year after beating texas, he'll be back) i think maryland will be better than most expect. but if temple gets past them, temple will definitely be in the conversaton for ny6 

ucf and houston had subpar years before going to a ny6, and the years memphis and temple won the aac (despite not going to the ny6) were subpar the year before..teams coming out of nowhere isnt out of the ordinary in the aac, parity is strong in league, little changes/improvement is season changing 

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42 minutes ago, Cincy said:

So what’s the point of s/p+??

I see AT LEAST 3 losses on that schedule. I know you’re trying your hardest to pump up Temple, but it doesn’t add up. 

s/p+ is inherently conservative in win predictions for any but the most elite teams.  it's usually best to just go by the number of games the team is favored in. 

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1 hour ago, pesik said:

 

 

houston should be elite next year imo, but im saying this with the knowledge that on most stat based projections houston shouldnt look that good

houstons defense is projected to be elite by everyone, but on a numbers level houston offense was bad last year and on top of that lost almost every offensive skill player, on paper our offense should be horrible...but like bill c noted in his houston preview, "change in OC" isnt measured by most computers, that his s/p+ is projecting a worse houston offense but that almost certainly wont happen..

briles jr is houston new OC who has had a total of 1 not top 10 offense in his entire career and that was the year the scandal hit (and it was still top 40).. FAU literally didnt have a qb last year, and still put up a top 10 offense on his first year there (houston has a qb)...a mixture of how good our defense is and what our OC has traditionally done houston will be fine

and random side note phil steeles preview of houston was done months ago..houston in the last 3 months alone has added 7 4star grad/ole miss waiver-ed transfers ..most magazines wont have an accurate depiction of houston   

Interesting.  UH had a lot of room for improvement on its OL, at QB (understandable), and in terms of its secondary and maybe pass rush from what I saw.  I'll try to follow them to see if they will pan out, but I will say that Fresno's game against them was radically different than, say, the MWC championship game v. Boise.  UH's running game seemed a bit anemic and its two RBs were averaging under 2.0 YPC against Fresno IIRC. Dunbar was a really good WR. Is he returning? UH also had a lot of obvious talent in its front 7.  

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3 hours ago, pesik said:

 

 

houston should be elite next year imo, but im saying this with the knowledge that on most stat based projections houston shouldnt look that good

houstons defense is projected to be elite by everyone, but on a numbers level houston offense was bad last year and on top of that lost almost every offensive skill player, on paper our offense should be horrible...but like bill c noted in his houston preview, "change in OC" isnt measured by most computers, that his s/p+ is projecting a worse houston offense but that almost certainly wont happen..

briles jr is houston new OC who has had a total of 1 not top 10 offense in his entire career and that was the year the scandal hit (and it was still top 40).. FAU literally didnt have a qb last year, and still put up a top 10 offense on his first year there (houston has a qb)...a mixture of how good our defense is and what our OC has traditionally done houston will be fine

and random side note phil steeles preview of houston was done months ago..houston in the last 3 months alone has added 7 4star grad/ole miss waiver-ed transfers ..most magazines wont have an accurate depiction of houston   

Elite huh.

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2 hours ago, JADogs05 said:

Interesting.  UH had a lot of room for improvement on its OL, at QB (understandable), and in terms of its secondary and maybe pass rush from what I saw.  I'll try to follow them to see if they will pan out, but I will say that Fresno's game against them was radically different than, say, the MWC championship game v. Boise.  UH's running game seemed a bit anemic and its two RBs were averaging under 2.0 YPC against Fresno IIRC. Dunbar was a really good WR. Is he returning? UH also had a lot of obvious talent in its front 7.  

Dunbar signed with the 49ers as an UDFA.

http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/49ers-steven-dunbar-inks-deal-with-san-fran/

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4 hours ago, JADogs05 said:

Interesting.  UH had a lot of room for improvement on its OL, at QB (understandable), and in terms of its secondary and maybe pass rush from what I saw.  I'll try to follow them to see if they will pan out, but I will say that Fresno's game against them was radically different than, say, the MWC championship game v. Boise.  UH's running game seemed a bit anemic and its two RBs were averaging under 2.0 YPC against Fresno IIRC. Dunbar was a really good WR. Is he returning? UH also had a lot of obvious talent in its front 7.  

Houston run game was anemic vs everyone , our entire offense was subpar the last 2 years. defense has carried us...thats is why i said on paper houston wont look great, their stats last year on offense wasnt that good and it lost all its skill players (dunbar graduated)..if you are going by numbers alone houston should have a bad offense next year (which is why im fine with low projections for houston)

but  no one who follows houston expects houston to have a bad offense, briles jr has never had a bad offense ever...he took a bad fau and made them top 10 nationally in offense in 1 year, a year they didnt even have a QB..houston definitely has more talent than FAU,yes we are a replacing a lot of skill players, but the "inexperienced" guys are 4star players ..and if the spring game is any indication of anything, the offense will light it up

pass rush isnt an issue, arguably the best ever college d-line player in a non-p5/aq is currently in houston ..cb was an issue last year but that was because all had never played D1 before last season, the good thing about inexperience 1 year is they all come back the next more experienced, 100% of cbs return it should be better, at 2 of the elite recruits added are DB 
 

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Guest elefish92

Temple's OOC isn't that amazing either: Villanova, Buffalo, at Maryland, and at Boston College...I highly doubt Maryland or BC will be a 10+ win team this season

The Mountain West has some good candidates though, assuming they go undefeated or with 1 loss that are being decided with other teams having a similar record...

Air Force: Stony Brook, at FAU, Navy, at Army (eh.)

Boise State: at Troy, Connecticut, at Oklahoma State, BYU (not the strongest I have seen from Boise but a win against Okie State would look hot, especially if it's on ABC)

Colorado State: vs. Colorado, Arkansas, at Florida, and Illinois State (pound Illinois State and you got yourself a bid)

New Mexico: Incarnate Word, at Wisconsin, at New Mexico State, Liberty (naaah fam, a win against Wiscy won't pull them up that high)

Utah State: at Michigan State, New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech, at BYU (see above but replace it with MSU)

Wyoming: at New Mexico State, Washington State, at Missouri, Wofford (reeaaally depends on how Mizzou and WSU does)

Fresno State: Idaho, at Minnesota, at UCLA, Toledo (probably the most ideal schedule for a NY6 bid, not too unlikely or weak)

Hawaii: Navy, Rice, at Army, Duquesne, at BYU (no.)

Nevada: Portland State, at Vanderbilt, Oregon State, at Toledo (low chance but far from the worst)

San Diego State: at Stanford, Sacramento State, Arizona State, Eastern Michigan (SDSU was on the path last year, so I'll give them this as well)

San Jose State: UC Davis, at Washington State, at Oregon, Army (kinda up there, super iffy considering Oregon is starting over and WSU lost some talent)

UNLV: at USC, UTEP, Prairie View A&M, at Arkansas State (doubt USC will be a superior team, so I don't think it would be enough)

yeah obviously Colorado State, then SDSU/FRES/BSU, and SJSU/WYO for upper half

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Of that Friday 5 list I think Memphis, Central Florida and Boise State are the only teams with a serious shot at the NY6. 

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14 hours ago, kingpotato said:

Well, he did a good job in his short time with the Raiders. He had a decent short turnaround at Tennessee and parlayed that into getting the USC gig. He did flame out a little there, but he didn't do bad job  and they were on MASSIVE probation at the time (He did have a 10 win season and finished in the top-5 there). 

I'm not saying he is a great coach, but for a school like FAU to get a football coach with that much Head Coaching experience, that is pretty rare. When he leaves (and he will... likely after this year), they will almost certainly be hiring a guy who has never been a HC before.

This assessment I can agree with. I just don't think he really ever merited the big time jobs he had. He was a good OC at USC, but I think I could've gotten results with the talent they had on that roster early 2000's. You're right in that he is a very good fit for a school like FAU. Brings name recognition and helps recruiting. It does help that Florida is arguably the best place to recruit college football players. 

There are only two things I can't stand in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures and the Dutch. 

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16 hours ago, JADogs05 said:

Interesting.  UH had a lot of room for improvement on its OL, at QB (understandable), and in terms of its secondary and maybe pass rush from what I saw.  I'll try to follow them to see if they will pan out, but I will say that Fresno's game against them was radically different than, say, the MWC championship game v. Boise.  UH's running game seemed a bit anemic and its two RBs were averaging under 2.0 YPC against Fresno IIRC. Dunbar was a really good WR. Is he returning? UH also had a lot of obvious talent in its front 7.  

Dunbar was good but he didn't start really going off until Tank Kelly broke his arm and we had to put in Sherman Coleman, who was playing with a nasty groin pull himself.  Once they realized that wasn't going well they put in Johnny Johnson (who had until that point been in the doghouse) and he stopped getting easy catches.

That game wasn't as close as the final score made it seem - the 'dogs pretty much controlled the game the whole way through.     That sounds silly but 14 of Houston's points came off of a trick play and the OL just deciding not to block at all on a field goal, and their last TD was the epitome of garbage time.   Replay that game again and it's probably something like 30-13 Fresno. Replay it in 2018 and the staff probably takes advantage of the new redshirt rules to put in free or gaston from the get go instead of coleman, with similar results to johnson.

 

 

My overall impression of houston was basically Fresno State in 2014 but with a better coaching staff.  Most of the talent from the previous staff had matriculated outward and the few remaining top-tier players were carrying them as hard as they could. Whether that's truly the case i dunno but that's how it felt.

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11 hours ago, pesik said:

Houston run game was anemic vs everyone , our entire offense was subpar the last 2 years. defense has carried us...thats is why i said on paper houston wont look great, their stats last year on offense wasnt that good and it lost all its skill players (dunbar graduated)..if you are going by numbers alone houston should have a bad offense next year (which is why im fine with low projections for houston)

but  no one who follows houston expects houston to have a bad offense, briles jr has never had a bad offense ever...he took a bad fau and made them top 10 nationally in offense in 1 year, a year they didnt even have a QB..houston definitely has more talent than FAU,yes we are a replacing a lot of skill players, but the "inexperienced" guys are 4star players ..and if the spring game is any indication of anything, the offense will light it up

pass rush isnt an issue, arguably the best ever college d-line player in a non-p5/aq is currently in houston ..cb was an issue last year but that was because all had never played D1 before last season, the good thing about inexperience 1 year is they all come back the next more experienced, 100% of cbs return it should be better, at 2 of the elite recruits added are DB 
 

Yeah, Oliver is a beast.  Really changed FS's gameplan.  I was impressed with the DT that played alongside him too.  But Boise's DL seemed much tougher.

 

I think King has the potential to be a real star for Houston, especially with good tutelage.  

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14 minutes ago, Rofl_copter_dos said:

Dunbar was good but he didn't start really going off until Tank Kelly broke his arm and we had to put in Sherman Coleman, who was playing with a nasty groin pull himself.  Once they realized that wasn't going well they put in Johnny Johnson (who had until that point been in the doghouse) and he stopped getting easy catches.

That game wasn't as close as the final score made it seem - the 'dogs pretty much controlled the game the whole way through.     That sounds silly but 14 of Houston's points came off of a trick play and the OL just deciding not to block at all on a field goal, and their last TD was the epitome of garbage time.   Replay that game again and it's probably something like 30-13 Fresno. Replay it in 2018 and the staff probably takes advantage of the new redshirt rules to put in free or gaston from the get go instead of coleman, with similar results to johnson.

 

 

I felt that way too but wasn't sure if it was me being a homer. I do remember Coleman getting left behind a lot in the second half. Gaston and Free are two really exciting players--McCauley and Marshall potential IMO. 

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30 minutes ago, JADogs05 said:

I felt that way too but wasn't sure if it was me being a homer. I do remember Coleman getting left behind a lot in the second half. Gaston and Free are two really exciting players--McCauley and Marshall potential IMO. 

The first ~10 minutes or so was really rough, mostly because while the OL was rock-solid in pass protection they were having trouble opening holes in the run game and we insisted on running it a bunch. From that point forward McMaryion was getting a lot of easy completions (I really liked Deboer's gameplanning and play design, wish he'd busted some of those plays out against Boise) and nearly the entirety of houston's offense revolved around throwing it to dunbar.    Houston backed out of the box a bit and they compensated by running hokit downhill with some pretty copious success.

 

 

Oliver was extremely impressive but Houston didn't have the personnel (or gameplan) to take advantage of the constant attention he required from the OL - Fresno just kept a double team on him the entire game, switched to quick outside passes and gradually lengthened them, and then ran the ball where he wasn't once the box was no longer stacked.  Textbook.

 

 

edit: this was one of my favorite 

ezgif-3-e61c3232b5.gif

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9 hours ago, crixus said:

Of that Friday 5 list I think Memphis, Central Florida and Boise State are the only teams with a serious shot at the NY6. 

I generally agree. Boise is going to mop the floor with 3 of its 4 OOC opponents so if the Broncos can win at Okie State, they could be in the driver's seat. Even if they lose to SDSU or Fresno, those teams could be sufficiently ranked for Boise to go into the MW title game with a good shot at the NY6.

Memphis? That depends on how good Brady White is. My guess is good enough to beat everybody on Memphis' schedule other than maybe UCF, which with McKenzie Milton has probably the best G5 QB in the country.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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21 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

I generally agree. Boise is going to mop the floor with 3 of its 4 OOC opponents so if the Broncos can win at Okie State, they could be in the driver's seat. Even if they lose to SDSU or Fresno, those teams could be sufficiently ranked for Boise to go into the MW title game with a good shot at the NY6.

Memphis? That depends on how good Brady White is. My guess is good enough to beat everybody on Memphis' schedule other than maybe UCF, which with McKenzie Milton has probably the best G5 QB in the country.

if boise wins at oklahoma state you can pencil them in for the playoff even if they drop a game to SDSU or Fresno along the way.  the Cowboys are basically a lock to win 9 regular season games and be in the top 25 come bowl season and none of the other teams will have a victory of that caliber to match - UCF has a UNC team that's finished in the top 25 once in the last 5 years, FAU isn't beating oklahoma on the road, and no other G5 team not named here has a legitimate shot at a win of that level - i don't see SDSU coming away with a road win at stanford sans Penny, Fresno may beat UCLA but they won't be a top-25 team, and Toledo is going to get mudholed at home by Miami.

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3 hours ago, Rofl_copter_dos said:

Dunbar was good but he didn't start really going off until Tank Kelly broke his arm and we had to put in Sherman Coleman, who was playing with a nasty groin pull himself.  Once they realized that wasn't going well they put in Johnny Johnson (who had until that point been in the doghouse) and he stopped getting easy catches.

That game wasn't as close as the final score made it seem - the 'dogs pretty much controlled the game the whole way through.     That sounds silly but 14 of Houston's points came off of a trick play and the OL just deciding not to block at all on a field goal, and their last TD was the epitome of garbage time.   Replay that game again and it's probably something like 30-13 Fresno. Replay it in 2018 and the staff probably takes advantage of the new redshirt rules to put in free or gaston from the get go instead of coleman, with similar results to johnson.

 

 

My overall impression of houston was basically Fresno State in 2014 but with a better coaching staff.  Most of the talent from the previous staff had matriculated outward and the few remaining top-tier players were carrying them as hard as they could. Whether that's truly the case i dunno but that's how it felt.

i dont think thats houston....the problem at houston wasnt talent..its was the offensive scheme...hermans offense was bad, even the year we went to the NY6. greg wards legs and making up plays as he went, made up for that awful offense, which is why houston regressed his senior year, when they tried to make him a passer and run less 

houston was deep in talent last year, houston will be even more deeper this year 

texas is the prefect example, in 2017 texas had one of the most elite running games in the nation, 100% of their Oline returned and 1st year under herman they instantly turned into one of the worst running teams in the nation...their oline made up of mostly five stars didnt instantly tuned bad in 1 offseason with 100% returnig

now look at all of houstons losses, they all tell them same story (including fresno) houston completely dominates on defense for most of the game, get tired in the end from constant 3 and outs (no rest) and demoralization (turnovers and bad field positions) an start giving up points..... any life from the offense and its a different story.

thats why it was such a big deal when applewhite abandoned the herman offense and decided to switch to the baylor offense ..your assumption is houston is running low on talent, i bet there have been few g5 teams who have more 4/5star on their roster than houston will next season

--- and this has nothing to do with this convo but a other one you were having, but rudolf and washington graduated at okstate , they are projected a 7/8 win team...mizzou w/drew lock (plays memphis), & arizona w/ khalil tate (plays houston are definitely projected better

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