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Guest #1Stunner

Is the PAC12 on the verge of blowing up? Power 4?

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6 minutes ago, Victor Maitlin said:

Correct.  Unless the B1G's swimming in cash even more so than currently, UVA is locked into the ACC.  As for B1G expansion, it's no secret that UVA/UNC is their goal, though I think the B1G underestimates UNC's self-image as a "southern school" and institutional culture to remaine one.  The domers will never happen because the B1G won't give any special treatment.  Texas won't happen because the cancer they bring to the clubhouse isn't worth the extra money they bring.  If you're the PAC, sure take the chance that you can control them.  If you're the B1G or SEC, things are too good and too stable to roll those dice for a bit more cash.  OU and WVU are non-starters academically.  KU is pretty much AAU in name only and a risk of another Nebraska embarrassment happening.  They, along with Mizzou, would be the first on the chopping block should the AAU decide to thin the herd again.  I think the B1G is pretty much in lock down mode for awhile barring something miraculous breaking on the ND front or the ACC blowing itself up.  Neither of which is happening.

Disagree on OU...they are an VHRU school and would qualify for the Pac and possibility the B1G.  WVU is also VHRU and would qualify for the ACC and that is an improvement since joining the Big 12.  Any school can claim they have good undergraduate academics but the average fan doesn't think like a college president as Frank the Tank in his realignments would say.

Link to VHRU: http://carnegieclassifications.iu.edu/lookup/srp.php?clq={"basic2005_ids"%3A"15"}&start_page=standard.php

Notice ASU on top of that list (as in abc order) despite their undergraduate academic reputation?  Minimum requirement for the B1G, ACC, and Pac.

Link to HRU: http://carnegieclassifications.iu.edu/lookup/srp.php?clq={"basic2005_ids"%3A"16"}&start_page=standard.php

The rest of the Big 12 schools that are not VHRU are listed here and therefore is probably the minimum requirement for joining a P5 conference especially the B12 and SEC.

Link to MRU: http://carnegieclassifications.iu.edu/lookup/srp.php?clq={"basic2005_ids"%3A"17"}&start_page=standard.php

Boise State is one of those Moderate Research Universities and so is Frenso State.  That is why I dismiss any mention of them joining the Pac or Big 12.

That does not mean Boise & Frenso's academics are bad.  It is the doctoral level of academics that matter to the conferences.  If undergraduate was so important, Arizona State would not be in the Pac plain and simple.  This is one big misunderstanding that the average fan has when it comes to membership in those P5 conferences.

 

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13 hours ago, Mano said:

No one is trying to get rid of OSU or Wazzu. Just crap thrown out by some fanbases.

I agree with this ^^^ at this point in time.

But, at some point (and currently this is just speculation based on business logic), the ONLY way for these conferences to improve the per program payout is to cut the bottom feeders.  It's what Big Business does and college football is certainly Big Business.

Why would, say, a program like Texas or Ohio State believe that it's fair that football programs like Wake Forest and Kansas get the same payout for football from their respective conferences?  They'll "drain the swamp" some day in the future...

4 Conferences, 10 teams each, cross-conference scheduling agreements, kick out the NCAA...Lots and lots of big bucks for the true Blue Bloods of college football.

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13 hours ago, Bruininthebay said:

Pac 12 media contracts and grant of rights expire in 2023 while the Big 12 media contracts and grant of rights expire in 2025 so there is potential for drama if the Pac 12 is unstable due to low revenue.

Do you really think that one of the PAC12 schools will join the BIG12 next go around?

What about the other way around?

Arizona has been discussed, but I don't see it.   I see uneven revenue sharing in the PAC12 more likely.

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1 hour ago, Jalapeno said:

Disagree on OU...they are an VHRU school and would qualify for the Pac and possibility the B1G.  WVU is also VHRU and would qualify for the ACC and that is an improvement since joining the Big 12.  Any school can claim they have good undergraduate academics but the average fan doesn't think like a college president as Frank the Tank in his realignments would say.

Link to VHRU: http://carnegieclassifications.iu.edu/lookup/srp.php?clq={"basic2005_ids"%3A"15"}&start_page=standard.php

Notice ASU on top of that list (as in abc order) despite their undergraduate academic reputation?  Minimum requirement for the B1G, ACC, and Pac.

Link to HRU: http://carnegieclassifications.iu.edu/lookup/srp.php?clq={"basic2005_ids"%3A"16"}&start_page=standard.php

The rest of the Big 12 schools that are not VHRU are listed here and therefore is probably the minimum requirement for joining a P5 conference especially the B12 and SEC.

Link to MRU: http://carnegieclassifications.iu.edu/lookup/srp.php?clq={"basic2005_ids"%3A"17"}&start_page=standard.php

Boise State is one of those Moderate Research Universities and so is Frenso State.  That is why I dismiss any mention of them joining the Pac or Big 12.

That does not mean Boise & Frenso's academics are bad.  It is the doctoral level of academics that matter to the conferences.  If undergraduate was so important, Arizona State would not be in the Pac plain and simple.  This is one big misunderstanding that the average fan has when it comes to membership in those P5 conferences.

 

Carnegie classifications are so overly broad as to be meaningless.  Any grouping that puts Florida International and VCU in the same category as Harvard or Wisconsin is not a guide to anything. 

What matters to the B1G is AAU status  (and Oklahoma is nowhere near an invite) and undergraduate reputation.  Go to the MUP report and look at the overall rankings (p12) and public only rankings (p20) to get a feel for how far off OU us to any B1G school not named Nowledge. 

https://mup.asu.edu/sites/default/files/mup-2015-top-american-research-universities-annual-report.pdf

SteelCityBlue

November 24th, 2018 at 9:10 PM ^

I'm looking forward to a new head coach who isn't a cud-chewing autistic retard.

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2 hours ago, SparkysDad said:

I agree with this ^^^ at this point in time.

But, at some point (and currently this is just speculation based on business logic), the ONLY way for these conferences to improve the per program payout is to cut the bottom feeders.  It's what Big Business does and college football is certainly Big Business.

Why would, say, a program like Texas or Ohio State believe that it's fair that football programs like Wake Forest and Kansas get the same payout for football from their respective conferences?  They'll "drain the swamp" some day in the future...

4 Conferences, 10 teams each, cross-conference scheduling agreements, kick out the NCAA...Lots and lots of big bucks for the true Blue Bloods of college football.

Well, Texas has clearly shown that they don't. I believe that Ohio State, to the contrary, (along with Michigan and Wisconsin) has clearly shown that they see the benefit of equitable sharing in the conference. I doubt they'll ever cut Purdue and Indiana loose so they could pocket a few million more a year. 

SteelCityBlue

November 24th, 2018 at 9:10 PM ^

I'm looking forward to a new head coach who isn't a cud-chewing autistic retard.

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6 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

Do you really think that one of the PAC12 schools will join the BIG12 next go around?

What about the other way around?

Arizona has been discussed, but I don't see it.   I see uneven revenue sharing in the PAC12 more likely.

The ascendance of the B1G and SEC above the other autonomous conferences demonstrate that the largest market for college football is in Eastern and Central time zones of the United States.  The more schools in those time zones the better from the perspective of actual interest from the general public.

The eastern US is different than the west.  The life style is more sedentary and a college football game is just of greater significance simply because there is way less to do.  For example, I doubt SEC fans have to go to another conference to find more consistent discussion about college football or even that they are capable of conversing with fans from other schools without constant flame wars.

Ray Armstrong must think he has an option if he's laying the groundwork now.  I don't think Ray's plan is to join the MW but that probably just another reason to fire the Hair...

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On 5/15/2018 at 5:01 PM, #1Stunner said:

UNLV will have one of the best basketball facilities in the West----but there are a few schools with as good or comparable facilities.  UNLV's is the only one that is worthy of hosting a basketball tourney, though, so I'll give you that.

But I agree, the UNLV - NFL stadium might qualify as the best.   Question is always, can UNLV fill it with fans, though.

Nobody believed hockey would do well in Vegas, either. Start winning, and fans will be there.

 

On 5/15/2018 at 5:11 PM, nocoolnamejim said:

I think it's unlikely that anybody cares about how good a school's facilities are if they don't lead to any actual winning. There's something to be said about how big a city's population is, but only if people are actually tuning in to watch. 

Adding a cellar dweller football program to a conference struggling to compete with the other P5 conferences is probably not something that the current Pac-12 conference presidents are going to consider.

Recruits do. It will only take a couple to break the ice.

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1 minute ago, 4UNLV said:

Recruits do. It will only take a couple to break the ice.

True enough and good point. Fingers crossed for your program.

I'm a little skeptical about only "a couple" managing to do it due to the differences between football and basketball but you're right that incredible facilities could indeed land a few more recruits that could get the proverbial snowball rolling down the hill.

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9 minutes ago, nocoolnamejim said:

True enough and good point. Fingers crossed for your program.

I'm a little skeptical about only "a couple" managing to do it due to the differences between football and basketball but you're right that incredible facilities could indeed land a few more recruits that could get the proverbial snowball rolling down the hill.

Yes, it will take more than a couple to change the culture, but it has to start somewhere. I'm already seeing some high level recruits drooling over the stadium, get a couple of them in here and see if it happens.

Hopefully the new DC gets his job done. At least he is targeting a higher level recruit, by far. Hoping for better results on the field.

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2 minutes ago, 4UNLV said:

Yes, it will take more than a couple to change the culture, but it has to start somewhere. I'm already seeing some high level recruits drooling over the stadium, get a couple of them in here and see if it happens.

Hopefully the new DC gets his job done. At least he is targeting a higher level recruit, by far. Hoping for better results on the field.

It's a good mindset to have and recruiting can indeed be momentum based. One or two guys decide that something big's about to happen and then they can convince 3-4 more. You never know.

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Quote

 

There is no chance … none, zero … of the Arizona schools jumping conferences prior to the next round of Tier I deals.

It might look enticing at the moment, with the Pac-12 floundering on the field/court and the Big 12 schools generating more annual revenue through conference distributions and local media rights.

(Pac-12 campuses received $30.9 million from the conference in FY17, while their Big 12 counterparts collected $34.3 million, plus varying seven-figure amounts from local TV deals.)

But never forget: Realignment doesn’t play out in the minutiae of year-to-year performance cycles; it unfolds on a broader canvass, one painted by university presidents, boards of regents and state politicians.

For the Arizona schools, jumping to the Big 12 doesn’t make sense.

For the Big 12, inviting the Arizona schools doesn’t make sense.

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/22/answering-the-latest-expansion-buzz-why-the-arizona-schools-wont-join-the-big-12/

 

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Guest #1Stunner
4 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

Good analysis.

I still think that the PAC12 will solve its money problems by agreeing to unequal revenue sharing next TV contract go-around. 

This means that USC, UCLA, etc will get more money than Utah, Wazzu, Oregon St.  (but that those schools will still get a lot of money).

I also think that the PAC12 might look at adding Houston eventually.

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Wilner makes some very good points but I don't know why he would think the state of Arizona is somehow more culturally aligned with the Left Coast states than states which contain B12 schools when it's almost exactly the opposite.

US-Political-Party-Strength-Index-Map-1024x707.png

Boom goes the dynamite.

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I don't understand why the general media assumption is that the two schools would both join.  Only an Arizona State AD is making noises but everyone leaps to the conclusion that both Arizona schools would leave.  Although it would be an even better basketball league...

Also, the Pac will never have unequal revenue sharing.  That's small time - even the MW wouldn't agree to that for Gonzaga.  Boise really just gets paid first (unless total revenue dips) after the most recent revision of the by laws and the conference sells two separate media packages.  I would assume that the MW is looking at which other properties would be able to generate a similar deal because the conference still controls the revenue.

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53 minutes ago, Bruininthebay said:

I don't understand why the general media assumption is that the two schools would both join.  Only an Arizona State AD is making noises but everyone leaps to the conclusion that both Arizona schools would leave.  Although it would be an even better basketball league...

Also, the Pac will never have unequal revenue sharing.  That's small time - even the MW wouldn't agree to that for Gonzaga.  Boise really just gets paid first (unless total revenue dips) after the most recent revision of the by laws and the conference sells two separate media packages.  I would assume that the MW is looking at which other properties would be able to generate a similar deal because the conference still controls the revenue.

The MWC agreed to that for Boise.  Boise gets to have its own media deal.

Maybe the PAC12 would do the same for USC to keep the Trojans happy?

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Boise State made it's initial agreement with ESPN after notifying the MW it was leaving.  When Boise rejoined, the MW honored that agreement but revenue has been split equally aside from the additional 'bonus money' that Boise negotiated and then was extended to 'national' games.  Eventually the schools who weren't getting much national publicity in a particular year were able to amend the bonus system so that it's essentially equal in the current by laws.

Distributions. Each Member Institution will share equally in all of the Conference’s net revenues, except for revenues which the Board of Directors determines (by the affirmative vote of threefourths (3/4) of the members of the Board of Directors) will be distributed on a performance basis Appendix A - 3 and/or other criteria established by the Board of Directors. 

http://themw.com/documents/2018/2/14//MW_Handbook_Composite_2017_18_Rev_Feb.pdf

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Guest #1Stunner
47 minutes ago, Bruininthebay said:

Boise State made it's initial agreement with ESPN after notifying the MW it was leaving.  When Boise rejoined, the MW honored that agreement but revenue has been split equally aside from the additional 'bonus money' that Boise negotiated and then was extended to 'national' games.  Eventually the schools who weren't getting much national publicity in a particular year were able to amend the bonus system so that it's essentially equal in the current by laws.

Distributions. Each Member Institution will share equally in all of the Conference’s net revenues, except for revenues which the Board of Directors determines (by the affirmative vote of threefourths (3/4) of the members of the Board of Directors) will be distributed on a performance basis Appendix A - 3 and/or other criteria established by the Board of Directors. 

http://themw.com/documents/2018/2/14//MW_Handbook_Composite_2017_18_Rev_Feb.pdf

Boise gets more money than the other MWC schools..  Basically double.

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7 hours ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Wilner makes some very good points but I don't know why he would think the state of Arizona is somehow more culturally aligned with the Left Coast states than states which contain B12 schools when it's almost exactly the opposite.

US-Political-Party-Strength-Index-Map-1024x707.png

Culture is much more then political views though. I mean just because California, Minnesota, and New York are the same color on this map doesn’t mean they are similar culturally. 

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