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wolfpack1

Bracketology Today is the Day

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On the major ones, except for Palm, Nevada really hasn't moved since their loss to UNLV. I am still thinking like I was last week and the week before, unless they completely fall apart, I am think the highest we would see Nevada is 7 and the lowest would be 10.

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1 hour ago, Packman04 said:

Man it sure does seem like Nevada is destined for that 8/9 line.  Part of me is ok with it because unless they can climb a seed line or two it might provide us with the best shot at a NCAA victory.  Especially with Drew’s injury I would be more than happy and consider it a very successful season.  Plus with how college basketball as been this season you never know.  If we shot the lights out maybe the unthinkable could happen with Nevada knocking off a one seed like Virgina?  Caleb played a bit in the 2015 NC State upset over the 1 seeded Villanova.

Good news is everyone one on this team has at least some NCAA experience.  Even the transfers have been there with the Martins being on the 2015 sweet 16 team, Cooke playing on the 2016 sweet 16 squad, and Kendall Stephens playing with the 2015 team that lost in the first round.

No 1 seed is ever a good matchup, but I want no part of Virginia this year.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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1 hour ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

No 1 seed is ever a good matchup, but I want no part of Virginia this year.

Really why?  They’ve had amazing defenses in the past and have even had NBA talent on past squads yet Tony has never gotten them to a final four.  This year’s team is awesome on defense but also not as offensively athleticism as some of the other Virgina teams.  It’s also proved it can shit the bed just like other teams by recently losing, at home, to a good not great Virgina Tech team. Don’t get me wrong if I had my choice I wouldn’t want to play any number one seed in the second round, but if forced to I would pick them.

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8 minutes ago, cherrycrush said:

I see Nevada as an 11 or 12, a really good team, but a little overrated at 8 or 9 to be honest.  When you have a team like Arizona State coming in at the same spot as Nevada when they went into Kansas and got a win, it’s easy to see. 

How are they overrated? Didn’t you also think NMSU deserved to be seeded higher than Nevada? Your logic is so off but if we are going by yours, you better throw Temple a bone too dolt.

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14 minutes ago, cardrater said:

How are they overrated? Didn’t you also think NMSU deserved to be seeded higher than Nevada? Your logic is so off but if we are going by yours, you better throw Temple a bone too dolt.

I am not so high on New Mexico State right now. They have had some bad losses of late.

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28 minutes ago, cherrycrush said:

I see Nevada as an 11 or 12, a really good team, but a little overrated at 8 or 9 to be honest.  When you have a team like Arizona State coming in at the same spot as Nevada when they went into Kansas and got a win, it’s easy to see. 

Nevada also went into Texas Tech's house and just flat out looked like the better team for most of the game before getting a little too much into burning clock and giving it away the last 5 min and still took it to OT.

We did lose that game so yes it is different, I'll say that for sure. But definitely looked like they belonged. I don't think 8-9 is a stretch. ASU has been pretty inconsistent lately. But yeah anything from 7-10 seems reasonable IMO. 

Granted we take a hit with Drew out for the season too, which sucks, but I'm hopefull still

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2 hours ago, cherrycrush said:

I see Nevada as an 11 or 12, a really good team, but a little overrated at 8 or 9 to be honest.  When you have a team like Arizona State coming in at the same spot as Nevada when they went into Kansas and got a win, it’s easy to see. 

ASU is also only .500 in conference play. Losses matter, too. 

At this point, no way on 12, and 11 would also be at least one seed low, IMO. I agree with the poster above with 7-10 being the appropriate range. 

Here is how Nevada ranks in three predictive metrics compared with ASU, whose respective rankings are in parentheses:

KenPom: 18 (34)

Sagarin: 38 (40)

BPI: 22 (42)

If you seeded only by the ratings, that would equate to seeds of 5, 10, and 6, respectively for Nevada. 

Now, the wins against top teams are lacking, and the committee isn’t going to seed based solely on the predictive metrics, but Nevada’s rankings in those stack up. This isn’t a team that has “gamed” the RPI.

For comparison, in the 7 seasons from 2007 through 2013 the top team in the MWC, according to BPI, ranked 21st, 33rd, 16th, 9th, 14th, 33rd, and 42nd. 

Note: I have not looked at the seeds each of those teams received in the NCAA tournament. 

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2 hours ago, cherrycrush said:

I see Nevada as an 11 or 12, a really good team, but a little overrated at 8 or 9 to be honest.  When you have a team like Arizona State coming in at the same spot as Nevada when they went into Kansas and got a win, it’s easy to see. 

Arizona St has blown up once they got into Pac-12 conference play and some brackets have them a solid bubble team right now. It will help if they can get some wins but the Arizona St team that went into Kansas and won, is that the same team that is playing right now. Many people can see that.

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1 hour ago, cherrycrush said:

I am not so high on New Mexico State right now. They have had some bad losses of late.

To me, even before the two losses this week, they pretty much needed to win the WAC tournament. Right now they really do need to win the tournament to get in

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9 hours ago, wolfpack1 said:

To me, even before the two losses this week, they pretty much needed to win the WAC tournament. Right now they really do need to win the tournament to get in

Correct that it's all about the WAC tourney.  The WAC is currently ranked 14 out of 32 conferences per article in Las Cruces Sun News today.  MWC is still at 9.  6 years ago when the conference fell apart it was nearly last.  So it's been a steady climb to the point WAC 2.0 is ranked above Sun Belt, CUSA, Big West, Big Sky.  I mention those because at one point they were talked about as potential conference for us.  Losing to second place UVU and third place Seattle wasn't a huge surprise, although many of us thought we would sweep road trip or worst case lose one close game.  It's still been a heck of a year.  The last several games, including a comeback against GCU at home, the offense has struggled.  Shots haven't been falling at same rate.  UVU is tough at home.  I think on a neutral court we are the better team, but i expect really good games starting round 2 in Vegas.   Here are top 4 teams heading into last stretch.  NMSU ends up with bottom 2 teams of conf at home, so we will win the regular season and get the 4 seed in second round of WAC tourney.   I haven't heard from a fan that isn't happy with Jans.  He is the real deal.  We should be good again next  year with several recruits ready to go already.  Zamora, transfer from Utah, will step in for our leading scorer Lofton next season.  We have a good core from current team coming back as well.  We are currently sitting at RPI of 46 which i think would put us at third in MWC.  Nevada has had a great year by the way so congrats.

NMSU 22-5, 9-2 conf

UVU 19-8, 8-3 conf

Seattle 19-9, 8-3 conf

GCU 17-10, 6-5 conf

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12 hours ago, cherrycrush said:

I see Nevada as an 11 or 12, a really good team, but a little overrated at 8 or 9 to be honest.  When you have a team like Arizona State coming in at the same spot as Nevada when they went into Kansas and got a win, it’s easy to see. 

Nevada went into Lubbock and led #6 Texas Tech from the start to the last 2 seconds. ASU isn't out of Nevada's league or anything.  

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12 hours ago, cherrycrush said:

I see Nevada as an 11 or 12, a really good team, but a little overrated at 8 or 9 to be honest.  When you have a team like Arizona State coming in at the same spot as Nevada when they went into Kansas and got a win, it’s easy to see. 

I think without Drew, 8 or 9 is probably about right. With Drew, we'd be a dangerous 6 seed. Most of the talking heads/commentators seem to think Nevada has realistic second weekend capabilities with the right draw. I'd be happy with a first round win without Drew.

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