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thelawlorfaithful

Government Shutdown 2018

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2 minutes ago, renoskier said:

If the government shuts down for a few weeks, how will it personally affect any of us here at Mug's Place?

I can't think of any immediate impacts on me.

Jack will be on vacation and post even more!

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9 minutes ago, renoskier said:

If the government shuts down for a few weeks, how will it personally affect any of us here at Mug's Place?

I can't think of any immediate impacts on me.

My guess the most likely and immediate effect will be taxes. The IRS will send home more than half of its workforce, I read today, just as they are trying to implement the changes from the tax bill. In addition, filing opens next week. I would assume a shutdown will greatly slow down that process. 

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1 hour ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I think the big thing is that people do not realize there is a margin of error that accounts for things like underestimating support in key counties and states.  The polls were within the margin of error.  People saw Hillary with a lead and then she lost so people assume polls are worthless without acknowledging that thin margin that ended up being the difference.

 

Also, the polls more or less nailed the national count. They just way under polled Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin because those had followed the national trends closely and dangit there were polls to take in Ohio and Florida and Virginia and polls aren't free!

It was more "never trust a swing state" not "all polling is LIES"

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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16 minutes ago, nocoolnamejim said:

I believe the results of the poll. Most people care about the things that most directly effect them personally first, and what effects other people second. A shutdown effects more people directly than something like DACA does. So the poll results make sense to me.

Having said that, polling also indicates that substantially more people would blame Republicans for a shutdown than Democrats. So I think it could be said that the GOP is not in the strongest negotiating position here.

Nah, this is a very bad look for Dems and it will only get worse as the days pass.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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1 minute ago, NVGiant said:

My guess the most likely and immediate effect will be taxes. The IRS will send home more than half of its workforce, I read today, just as they are trying top implement the changes from the tax bill. In addition, filing opens next week. I would assume a shutdown will greatly slow down that process. 

It will delay refunds.  People will hate that.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/01/government_shutdown_could_dela.html

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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12 minutes ago, renoskier said:

If the government shuts down for a few weeks, how will it personally affect any of us here at Mug's Place?

I can't think of any immediate impacts on me.

Found this link a useful FAQ.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/what-shuts-down-during-a-us-government-shutdown-quicktake-qanda/2018/01/17/49c950e0-fb9a-11e7-9b5d-bbf0da31214d_story.html

The ones that draw headlines are closures of national parks, monuments and the Smithsonian museums in Washington. Other activities that generally stop, at least if the shutdown lasts more than a couple days, are processing of applications for passports and visas; new enrollments in experimental treatments under the National Institutes for Health; and the maintenance of U.S. government websites, including ones used by businesses and researchers. Mortgage approvals can be delayed by furloughs at the Internal Revenue Service and the Federal Housing Administration. The last shutdown, which lasted 16 days in 2013, delayed approval of about 200 drilling applications at the Bureau of Land Management, consideration of 700 applications for small business loans totaling $140 million, and the start of the Alaska crab season, which relies on harvest levels apportioned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, according to a 2013 report by the White House Office of Management and Budget.

For me personally, my wife is a Swedish citizen on a permanent resident card in the middle of the naturalization process applying for citizenship, so there's that.

But beyond that, I can think of a number of things that we don't think about that often that might be impacted.

The Center for Disease Control for instance? It mostly shutdown during the 2013 shutdown. How about the Food and Drug Administration? Also mostly shutdown in 2013.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-a-government-shutdown-could-affect-your-health

I'm guessing there's any number of agencies that would be impacted that we never really think about unless something breaks.


Edit: The poll NVGiant posted is the one I'd seen.

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18 minutes ago, toonkee said:

Well then.  

Dems need to cut their losses on this.  Get it over with.  The longer this lingers the worse it is for them. The turtle has won.

image.jpeg.082b2dc9a36cf63be80d665a0ba85486.jpeg

The good news is, best case scenario, we get to do it all again in a month.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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8 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

People will believe what they want to believe:

Who%20is%20responsible%20for%20a%20possi

Yeah, of course it looks like a bad play for the GOP Congress when you add those who blame Trump to their numbers. Agree that people will see what they want to see.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/01/19/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-trump-immigration-daca/index.html

Overall, about half of Americans say they would blame either Trump (21%) or his Republican counterparts in Congress (26%) should Congress fail to fund the government by the midnight Friday deadline. About a third, 31%, say they would hold the Democrats in Congress responsible, and another 10% say they'd blame all three groups. Among Republicans, 62% would blame the Democrats in Congress, while 43% of Democrats would blame Republicans on Capitol Hill and 29% would blame Trump.

 

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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25 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

My guess the most likely and immediate effect will be taxes. The IRS will send home more than half of its workforce, I read today, just as they are trying to implement the changes from the tax bill. In addition, filing opens next week. I would assume a shutdown will greatly slow down that process. 

Umm....any negative impacts?:D

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Just now, renoskier said:

What's a refund?

I don’t know. I’m going to owe this year. I don’t have enough withholding taken out because I refuse to give the government an interest free loan. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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25 minutes ago, nocoolnamejim said:

 

For me personally, my wife is a Swedish citizen on a permanent resident card in the middle of the naturalization process applying for citizenship, so there's that.

 

As long as she's blonde, no worries:thumbsup:

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12 minutes ago, renoskier said:

As long as she's blonde, no worries:thumbsup:

Yeah, took some amusement from the Norway comment tbh.

I've been married to her for over 10 years and I honestly have no idea what her real hair color is. She was dyeing her hair before I met her, and she's been dyeing her hair ever since. She won't tell me what the real color is because she says she doesn't like it. 

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