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wolfpack1

RealRPI Predictions

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19 hours ago, BleedRebelRed said:

I agree, and the battle for the 4/5 spots from here out is huge... and I see it as a 6 horse race that will be dependent on winning home games and picking up one or two on the road:

+1 road win / -1 home loss standings

+1 CSU

0 UNLV

0 UNM

0 USU

-1 FS

-1 Wyo

The battle for the byes is going to be really interesting to watch going forward. I wouldn't be surprised if this turns into a giant logjam and all 6 teams finish somewhere between 10-8 and 8-10 in conference. 

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7 hours ago, KingBronco said:

The battle for the byes is going to be really interesting to watch going forward. I wouldn't be surprised if this turns into a giant logjam and all 6 teams finish somewhere between 10-8 and 8-10 in conference. 

The unbalanced MWC schedule will be a factor:

  • New Mexico by far benefits the most - they don't have to travel to SDSU or face Nevada.
  • Fresno State benefits somewhat - they don't have to go to Boise (but also don't get to host SJSU).
  • Utah St doesn't host SDSU.
  • Wyoming only plays AF once.

CSU  usu @unlv

UNLV  csu  @wyo

UNM  nevada @sdsu
USU  @csu  sdsu

FS  @bsu  sjsu
Wyo unlv @af

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8 hours ago, wolfpack1 said:

Don't know what changed tonight however for fun again, RealRPI now has Nevada going 16-2 in conference play with Boise going 15-3

I think Saturday's game is bigger for Reno than Boise. If Boise loses, they can still catch Reno because of their back loaded schedule vs Boise's front loaded. If Boise wins that game it'll be tough for Reno to catch Boise. 

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18 hours ago, TrueAg said:

From RPI Forecast (a far superior service):

image.png.abf87a6b7a92535d238d2d6ca35f5e7e.png

I have to be a bit skeptical if only because they predict two conference wins for SJSU.

It's said that even a blind squirrel occasionally locates an acorn so I'll buy ONE conference win but TWO? They've already lost to AF in SJ so just who would that be?

Boom goes the dynamite.

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3 hours ago, kingpotato said:

I think Saturday's game is bigger for Reno than Boise. If Boise loses, they can still catch Reno because of their back loaded schedule vs Boise's front loaded. If Boise wins that game it'll be tough for Reno to catch Boise. 

With having one conference loss already I will say the game is very big for Boise because I don't think they want to be two games back at this point in the season. I think Nevada could survive a loss however I am also expecting both teams to lose to at least one team they have no business losing to in conference play. Yes Boise lost to Wyoming but that was up in Wyoming and that is a tough place to play. But odds are both teams probably will lose one game they shouldn't in conference play. 

But I think the whole thing for Boise is they don't want to be two games down after Saturday so that is why I think the game is a bit bigger for Boise at least in my opinion.

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23 minutes ago, wolfpack1 said:

With having one conference loss already I will say the game is very big for Boise because I don't think they want to be two games back at this point in the season. I think Nevada could survive a loss however I am also expecting both teams to lose to at least one team they have no business losing to in conference play. Yes Boise lost to Wyoming but that was up in Wyoming and that is a tough place to play. But odds are both teams probably will lose one game they shouldn't in conference play. 

But I think the whole thing for Boise is they don't want to be two games down after Saturday so that is why I think the game is a bit bigger for Boise at least in my opinion.

Dammit, I just hope it's not to UNLV!!!

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1 hour ago, wolfpack1 said:

With having one conference loss already I will say the game is very big for Boise because I don't think they want to be two games back at this point in the season. I think Nevada could survive a loss however I am also expecting both teams to lose to at least one team they have no business losing to in conference play. Yes Boise lost to Wyoming but that was up in Wyoming and that is a tough place to play. But odds are both teams probably will lose one game they shouldn't in conference play. 

But I think the whole thing for Boise is they don't want to be two games down after Saturday so that is why I think the game is a bit bigger for Boise at least in my opinion.

It'd be a great win for Boise. They'd be looking very good if they could pull that off. After Saturday, they will have already played UNLV, Wyo, Fresno, and Reno all on the road. They are also completely done with Fresno for the year. Whereas Reno, just in it's last eight games, have to play both UNLV and SDSU twice and a roadie to Boise, not to mention the Wyoming roadie. UNR got a good win at Fresno, but all of their other tough roadies still remain. Looking at their schedule, a two game deficit is well within reach. Especially since one of those games can be made up with a home game against the spacepack.

I think most of us still believe this is UNR's title to lose. They have been the best team, if even just by a little bit. Boise is in a great position if they can pull the upset, but they aren't out of it if they lose.

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1 hour ago, renoskier said:

Dammit, I just hope it's not to UNLV!!!

I was actually thinking more of the bottom of the lead than the middle of the pack. With UNLV I could see a split with them possibly since it is seen as a rivalry matchup.

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6 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

It'd be a great win for Boise. They'd be looking very good if they could pull that off. After Saturday, they will have already played UNLV, Wyo, Fresno, and Reno all on the road. They are also completely done with Fresno for the year. Whereas Reno, just in it's last eight games, have to play both UNLV and SDSU twice and a roadie to Boise, not to mention the Wyoming roadie. UNR got a good win at Fresno, but all of their other tough roadies still remain. Looking at their schedule, a two game deficit is well within reach. Especially since one of those games can be made up with a home game against the spacepack.

I think most of us still believe this is UNR's title to lose. They have been the best team, if even just by a little bit. Boise is in a great position if they can pull the upset, but they aren't out of it if they lose.

I don't think the conference race is over by a longshot. Boise does have tough road games against SDSU and New Mexico. Even though NM is down, The Pit can be a difficult place to play. Roadie against Colorado St could also be interesting toward the end of the season. 

With either team that wins (if they both win tonight mind you) it will look good for them and whoever loses it could look like a good loss as well. However to me I believe Boise would feel a lot better in their position in the MWC at this point if they can get the win. I am not saying that a 2 game deficit is impossible to make up at all, but if Boise lost their margin of error would be smaller I think. 

I still picked SDSU at the start of the season to win the MWC so....ehh with Nevada finishing 2nd or 3rd with Boise and Fresno in there as well.

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1 minute ago, wolfpack1 said:

I don't think the conference race is over by a longshot. Boise does have tough road games against SDSU and New Mexico. Even though NM is down, The Pit can be a difficult place to play. Roadie against Colorado St could also be interesting toward the end of the season. 

With either team that wins (if they both win tonight mind you) it will look good for them and whoever loses it could look like a good loss as well. However to me I believe Boise would feel a lot better in their position in the MWC at this point if they can get the win. I am not saying that a 2 game deficit is impossible to make up at all, but if Boise lost their margin of error would be smaller I think. 

I still picked SDSU at the start of the season to win the MWC so....ehh with Nevada finishing 2nd or 3rd with Boise and Fresno in there as well.

They do have those trips... as does UNR. SDSU is the only team I could see winning the league if it wasn't Boise or Reno. 

Hopefully both teams keep winning. They provide the easiest path to the MW getting two bids. No embarrassing loses and some decent wins... so far.

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1 minute ago, kingpotato said:

They do have those trips... as does UNR. SDSU is the only team I could see winning the league if it wasn't Boise or Reno. 

Hopefully both teams keep winning. They provide the easiest path to the MW getting two bids. No embarrassing loses and some decent wins... so far.

I agree with that king. This is hopefully the year people start looking at the MWC once again. It should be an interesting and entertaining run here. 

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1 minute ago, wolfpack1 said:

I agree with that king. This is hopefully the year people start looking at the MWC once again. It should be an interesting and entertaining run here. 

Baby step this year. Next year should be better. If UNR gets everyone back they should be top-25. SDSU has some REALLY good looking FR and get Watson back. New Mexico should take a huge leap. UNLV could be good, we'll have to see who they get back. Boise will likely take a step back, but they've been consistently good under Rice and they have a nice group coming back to build around.

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1 minute ago, kingpotato said:

Baby step this year. Next year should be better. If UNR gets everyone back they should be top-25. SDSU has some REALLY good looking FR and get Watson back. New Mexico should take a huge leap. UNLV could be good, we'll have to see who they get back. Boise will likely take a step back, but they've been consistently good under Rice and they have a nice group coming back to build around.

Yeah however there has been that one team last couple of years that kind of came out of nowhere in the league but this year it doesn't seem like we are going to have one of those. SDSU I think was the wild card in everything going into this year with a new coach and such. UNLV I think needs to get some more water under their feet a bit, Utah St isn't as bad this year as I thought they would be. Right now for this year thinking a combo of Boise, Nevada and San Diego St will probably be the top three teams come tournament time. Then a whole bunch of middle of the pack teams and then lower ranking team.

With New Mexico, I think they might be another two years away possibly, we could see the same three teams fighting for the top next year as well but a lot changes before then. Last year told people the MWC was turning in the right direction and continues this year. The unfortuate thing is some people think its as quick as snapping your fingers and things turn but it takes a bit of time. 

You can fall a lot quicker than climbing your way back up

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2 hours ago, wolfpack1 said:

I was actually thinking more of the bottom of the lead than the middle of the pack. With UNLV I could see a split with them possibly since it is seen as a rivalry matchup.

You good sir.....are a shitty troll!

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21 hours ago, renoskier said:

You good sir.....are a shitty troll!

:P I would like to sweep UNLV in all honestly and then can hold it over some people's heads but just kind of trying to be realistic. I am thinking Nevada splits with UNLV, Boise and SDSU. We do have an important set of games coming up starting early next month. @ Colorado St, UNLV, San Diego St, @ Boise St. 

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