Amazon destroying retail job market

[Jack Bauer]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-is-going-to-kill-more-american-jobs-than-china-did-2017-01-19

 

I'm not posting this as anything political, it's just an article I came across today while I was browsing the web.  The premise is that Amazon's growth and convenience has cost our country more jobs than China ever did.  Something to think about.

[bluerules009]

1 hour ago, Jack Bauer said:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-is-going-to-kill-more-american-jobs-than-china-did-2017-01-19

 

I'm not posting this as anything political, it's just an article I came across today while I was browsing the web.  The premise is that Amazon's growth and convenience has cost our country more jobs than China ever did.  Something to think about.

90% of current employment is going to be gone in 20 years.

I think if you don't have stock in Amazon and Google you will just be a welfare child in 20 years as they are going to own the world.

[I am Ram]

3 hours ago, bluerules009 said:

90% of current employment is going to be gone in 20 years.

No, it won't be. If retail were only a question of price and convenience, retail jobs would already be history. But just like restaurants will continue to exist even though you can (and I regularly do) order hot restaurant food through Amazon, many retail businesses will continue to exist and thrive. A lot of people enjoy the shopping experience. Now, what kind of retailers will survive is a totally different question. Small specialized stores are thriving in my town. People go there for great customer service, competent advice, and a more personalized treatment. What will continue to die are the big stores. Good riddance, I say. 

By the way, this discussion has been going on for at least 15 years. And it probably will be going on in another 15.

[BSUTOP25]

13 hours ago, I am Ram said:

No, it won't be. If retail were only a question of price and convenience, retail jobs would already be history. But just like restaurants will continue to exist even though you can (and I regularly do) order hot restaurant food through Amazon, many retail businesses will continue to exist and thrive. A lot of people enjoy the shopping experience. Now, what kind of retailers will survive is a totally different question. Small specialized stores are thriving in my town. People go there for great customer service, competent advice, and a more personalized treatment. What will continue to die are the big stores. Good riddance, I say. 

By the way, this discussion has been going on for at least 15 years. And it probably will be going on in another 15.

Exactly this. Amazon isn't "destroying" anything, they're simply an enabler who is allowing consumers a choice. If people want to retain things like "Made in Murica" and ma and pa retail establishments in their life, they simply need to be ready to pay a premium. Personally, I do that for certain things and I have no problem with it. I'll gladly go to a local hardware store for certain things. 

[Jack Bauer]

1 hour ago, BSUTOP25 said:

Exactly this. Amazon isn't "destroying" anything, they're simply an enabler who is allowing consumers a choice. If people want to retain things like "Made in Murica" and ma and pa retail establishments in their life, they simply need to be ready to pay a premium. Personally, I do that for certain things and I have no problem with it. I'll gladly go to a local hardware store for certain things. 

I probably shouldn't have worded it like that, but I posted it more to show the effect it's having on consumers and other companies, and how people are more comfortable just doing a lot of their shopping online and at home, instead of going to a store.  There's still a place for stores, but if they don't have exactly what you're looking for, Amazon is certainly a good alternative.  

I mean, when is the last time you went to Best Buy except to have a fistfight with someone from the board?  I rarely find myself going anywhere.  We order a lot more from online sources than we did five years ago.

[BSUTOP25]

24 minutes ago, Jack Bauer said:

I probably shouldn't have worded it like that, but I posted it more to show the effect it's having on consumers and other companies, and how people are more comfortable just doing a lot of their shopping online and at home, instead of going to a store.  There's still a place for stores, but if they don't have exactly what you're looking for, Amazon is certainly a good alternative.  

I mean, when is the last time you went to Best Buy except to have a fistfight with someone from the board?  I rarely find myself going anywhere.  We order a lot more from online sources than we did five years ago.

Yeah, it's certainly a notable disruption. We've also had threads on how automation and AI are taking labor intensive jobs away as well. There may always been a niche for personal services (aka Dre's mom) and boutique shops but consumers now demand convenience, personalization and transparency. We're going to have to reinvent the way we view economy in the next 10-20 years as both capitalism and socialism will become extinct. 

[Jack Bauer]

5 minutes ago, BSUTOP25 said:

Yeah, it's certainly a notable disruption. We've also had threads on how automation and AI are taking labor intensive jobs away as well. There may always been a niche for personal services (aka Dre's mom) and boutique shops but consumers now demand convenience, personalization and transparency. We're going to have to reinvent the way we view economy in the next 10-20 years as both capitalism and socialism will become extinct. 

The bottom line is that it's becoming more difficult to maintain employment for people who don't have a particular, specialized skill that requires they be part of the process going forward.  It's easy to automate stuff and that costs jobs.  Amazon has changed the retail market permanently going forward, so people who depended on that previously may not be able to do so.  The article details multiple companies having to let employees go because their market share is decreasing over time, resulting in job loss.

It doesn't help that education is so costly, so getting the type of education and training that many jobs require is hard for the typical person.  It's disappointing to me that the government has propped up the higher education sector with the guaranteed loans, so schools have no risk in admitting unqualified applicants who maybe shouldn't be there.  I'd really like to see the schools have some skin in the game here, with them taking some stake in the "education" they're providing.  It's created a market where people who want to improve their situation through increased education have to pay an arm and a leg to do so, because schools raised tuition and fees as soon as it realized there was money to be had through government loans.  

I'd really like to see us move towards more certificates and certifications instead of a degree for certain jobs, so need could more easily be met without going through an expensive university system, also streamlining the process.

[Guest RoscoesDad]

2 hours ago, Jack Bauer said:

 I'd really like to see us move towards more certificates and certifications instead of a degree for certain jobs, so need could more easily be met without going through an expensive university system, also streamlining the process.

I'd like to see the private companies that need to rely on specialty skilled employees create their own 'training' centers paid for by themselves.  Why should I have to pay for someone who wants to learn a skill so they can go work for (enter corporation here) so they can profit off of it?  I am tired of private businesses gravy training off public education.  If they need a special skill set, they should pay and train the workers themselves.

[bluerules009]

14 minutes ago, RoscoesDad said:

I'd like to see the private companies that need to rely on specialty skilled employees create their own 'training' centers paid for by themselves.  Why should I have to pay for someone who wants to learn a skill so they can go work for (enter corporation here) so they can profit off of it?  I am tired of private businesses gravy training off public education.  If they need a special skill set, they should pay and train the workers themselves.

They are already paying all the taxes.

You pay nothing,

[Jack Bauer]

23 minutes ago, RoscoesDad said:

I'd like to see the private companies that need to rely on specialty skilled employees create their own 'training' centers paid for by themselves.  Why should I have to pay for someone who wants to learn a skill so they can go work for (enter corporation here) so they can profit off of it?  I am tired of private businesses gravy training off public education.  If they need a special skill set, they should pay and train the workers themselves.

I think that's a really good idea.  How would you go about accrediting it and making sure the certifications don't paint someone in to a corner with a particular company?

[pokebball]

36 minutes ago, RoscoesDad said:

I'd like to see the private companies that need to rely on specialty skilled employees create their own 'training' centers paid for by themselves.  Why should I have to pay for someone who wants to learn a skill so they can go work for (enter corporation here) so they can profit off of it?  I am tired of private businesses gravy training off public education.  If they need a special skill set, they should pay and train the workers themselves.

I don't mind paying for my kids' education.

[Jack Bauer]

3 minutes ago, pokebball said:

I don't mind paying for my kids' education.

I don't mind it either.  I think the cost has been artificially inflated over the last 2 decades, however.

[Guest RoscoesDad]

28 minutes ago, Jack Bauer said:

I think that's a really good idea.  How would you go about accrediting it and making sure the certifications don't paint someone in to a corner with a particular company?

Good question.  Perhaps the private companies within the same industry do backend referral deals. Or perhaps all companies in an industry pay into a generalized training school where they all go as an aggregate group. 

[roswellcoug]

46 minutes ago, RoscoesDad said:

I'd like to see the private companies that need to rely on specialty skilled employees create their own 'training' centers paid for by themselves.  Why should I have to pay for someone who wants to learn a skill so they can go work for (enter corporation here) so they can profit off of it?  I am tired of private businesses gravy training off public education.  If they need a special skill set, they should pay and train the workers themselves.

 

1 minute ago, RoscoesDad said:

Good question.  Perhaps the private companies within the same industry do backend referral deals. Or perhaps all companies in an industry pay into a generalized training school where they all go as an aggregate group. 

If you want someone else to pay to educate them, why don't you let the private companies hire whoever they want from India? 

[Guest RoscoesDad]

30 minutes ago, roswellcoug said:

 

If you want someone else to pay to educate them, why don't you let the private companies hire whoever they want from India? 

Jesus some of these responses are painful.  I dont want anyone to pay for anyome else einstein. I want the companies who profit off public education to pay for training THEIR employees.  

Why do i have to subsidize someone who wants to work for a company that requires a special skillset with my money?  Hint i am using your own argument against you here.  Just a heads up. 

[Jack Bauer]

49 minutes ago, RoscoesDad said:

Good question.  Perhaps the private companies within the same industry do backend referral deals. Or perhaps all companies in an industry pay into a generalized training school where they all go as an aggregate group. 

The reason I ask is because we have a IV certification we have here for our nurses, but it's only good here and they have to recertify to the specifications of another medical grou pif htey go elsewhere. 

That made me think of bigger and more important certifications like computer programming and other things, and you could make people work for you if you gave them a similar certification that wasn't accepted elsewhere.  

Lots of think about with this stuff.

[pokebball]

28 minutes ago, RoscoesDad said:

Jesus some of these responses are painful.  I dont want anyone to pay for anyome else einstein. I want the companies who profit off public education to pay for training THEIR employees.  

Why do i have to subsidize someone who wants to work for a company that requires a special skillset with my money?  Hint i am using your own argument against you here.  Just a heads up. 

huh???

[halfmanhalfbronco]

19 hours ago, I am Ram said:

No, it won't be. If retail were only a question of price and convenience, retail jobs would already be history. But just like restaurants will continue to exist even though you can (and I regularly do) order hot restaurant food through Amazon, many retail businesses will continue to exist and thrive. A lot of people enjoy the shopping experience. Now, what kind of retailers will survive is a totally different question. Small specialized stores are thriving in my town. People go there for great customer service, competent advice, and a more personalized treatment. What will continue to die are the big stores. Good riddance, I say. 

By the way, this discussion has been going on for at least 15 years. And it probably will be going on in another 15.

I read an interesting paper stating that the bulk of jobs will no longer exist in my lifetime.  Super computers will start to hit jobs in law and medicine even.  The premise of the paper was that the work force will be basically non existent in the next 100 years.  I will see if I can find it but here are some themes it hit on

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold  85% of all photo paper worldwide.

             

             

Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

       

             

What  happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years and, most people won't see it coming. 
Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?       

          

           

             

Yet digital cameras were  invented in 1975.  The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.  So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years.  It will now happen  again with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and  electric cars, education,3Dprinting, agriculture and  jobs.   Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.  Welcome to the Exponential  Age .       

             

             

             

Software will disrupt most  traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.          

             

 

             

             

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxicompany in the  world.

             

             

 

             

             

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any  properties.             

             

 

             

             

Artificial  Intelligence:  Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.  This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world,  10 years  earlier than expected.          

             

 

             

             

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs.   Because of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice  (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with  90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.            

             

 

             

             

So if you study law, stop immediately.  There will be 90% less lawyers in the  future, only specialists will  remain.   

          

 

             

             

Watson already helps nurses diagnosingcancer,  its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

             

             

Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.  In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.  ( NEVER!/Albert)

             

             

 

             

             

Autonomous cars  : In 2018, the first self-driving cars  will appear for the public.  Around 2020, the complete industry will  start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore.  You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving.             

             

Our kids will never get a  driver's licence and will never own a car.            

             

 

             

             

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.  We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

             

             

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.   We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to 1accident in 6 million miles  (10 million km).  That will save a million lives each  year.      

             

 

             

             

Most car companies will  probably become bankrupt.   Traditional car companies  try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple,  Google)  will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.             

             

 

             

             

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.             

             

 

             

             

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become  100x cheaper.   Their car insurance  business model will disappear.             

             

 

             

             

Real estate  will change.  Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.             

             

 

             

             

Electric cars will become mainstream about2020.  Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.          

             

 

             

             

Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean:  Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.          

             

 

             

             

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.  Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last.  Technology will take care of that strategy.         

             

 

             

             

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.  Desalination of salt water now only needs 2 kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have  scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.   Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.           

             

 

             

             

Health: The Tricorder  X price  will be announced this year.  There are companies who will build a  medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.            

             

 

             

             

It then analyses  54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease.  It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class  medical analysis, nearly for free.  Goodbye, medical establishment.          

             

 

             

             

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3Dprinter came down from  $18,000 to $400within 10 years. In the same time, it  became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.             

             

 

             

             

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.  The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.             

             

 

             

             

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities.   You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.             

             

 

             

             

In China, they already  3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building.  By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.             

             

 

             

             

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself: "In the future, do I think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?             

[I am Ram]

2 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I read an interesting paper stating that the bulk of jobs will no longer exist in my lifetime.  Super computers will start to hit jobs in law and medicine even.  The premise of the paper was that the work force will be basically non existent in the next 100 years.  I will see if I can find it but here are some themes it hit on

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold  85% of all photo paper worldwide.

             

             

Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

                

And yet...the US population has grown by close to 50 million people since 1998. The unemployment rate is pretty close to insignificant.

 

Quote

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?     

Did you think in 2008 that you could be a cab driver with just your car and a cell phone?

[halfmanhalfbronco]

29 minutes ago, I am Ram said:

And yet...the US population has grown by close to 50 million people since 1998. The unemployment rate is pretty close to insignificant.

 

Did you think in 2008 that you could be a cab driver with just your car and a cell phone?

Way to miss the point of the post by keying on two of two dozen points.

The best scientists and economists in the world all agree that chances for employment will reduced 70-90% in the next 50-100 years if the geopolitical landscape remains stable, but I am sure you know better.

A communist like yourself should be happy.  Free money for everybody is just right around the corner.