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toonkee

UNLV's Actual "Advantage" During the MWC Tournament

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Rebs have won 87% of conference home games since 2006-2007 season through the 2012-2013 season. During that time (2006-2007 through 2012-2013) they won approximately 70% of MWC tournament games and 67% of all conference games (home and away).  *Note:  The 2013-2014 season has not been included as it is not over yet and of course the tournament hasn't been played yet.  The 2006-2013 years were chosen as this is when the tournament returned to the T&M after leaving Denver.

 

Bottom line...The Rebels may get to sleep in their own beds, play in their own building, eat at their favorite Chipotle, - this list goes on and on -  but, statistically, the Rebels only win 3% more games in the tournament than they do in the regular season. Couple that with the fact that the Rebels win a significantly lower percentage of games in the tournament in the T&M than regular season home games at the T&M.  

 

So let's stop calling it a "home court" or "home floor" advantage.  Its just not true.

 

 

 

 

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Rebs have won 87% of conference home games since 2006-2007 season through the 2012-2013 season. During that time (2006-2007 through 2012-2013) they won approximately 70% of MWC tournament games and 67% of all conference games (home and away).  *Note:  The 2013-2014 season has not been included as it is not over yet and of course the tournament hasn't been played yet.  The 2006-2013 years were chosen as this is when the tournament returned to the T&M after leaving Denver.

 

Bottom line...The Rebels may get to sleep in their own beds, play in their own building, eat at their favorite Chipotle, - this list goes on and on -  but, statistically, the Rebels only win 3% more games in the tournament than they do in the regular season. Couple that with the fact that the Rebels win a significantly lower percentage of games in the tournament in the T&M than regular season home games at the T&M.  

 

So let's stop calling it a "home court" or "home floor" advantage.  Its just not true.

How sad

 

 

 

 

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Thank you for this.

Go F your self San Diego homers. If we don't pull it out I'll be a lobo for the rest of the tourney.

Homers? Is it because they think SDSU is better than UNLV this year? Based on the court results, I'm sure a majority of objective 3rd party observers would expect a SDSU win tonight. Don't be a sore loser and have some faith in your team if you "really" believe in them.

 

 

 

 

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Thank you for this.

Go F your self San Diego homers. If we don't pull it out I'll be a lobo for the rest of the tourney.

Lol, the number one SDSU fan on here.

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Your analysis seems a bit weak to me. It isn't a fair comparison to show regular season conference results, where you are playing every conference team, with tournament conference results, where you typically are only playing the best teams.

 

I think this is closer to showing the advantage: as you point out, UNLV won about 70% of their games in the conference tournament (it looks like they went 12-5). If we look at the teams they played in the conference tournament, and how those games went in the regular season, it appears they only won about 53% (18-16) of those games -- indicating an advantage of roughly 17%. 

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Your analysis seems a bit weak to me. It isn't a fair comparison to show regular season conference results, where you are playing every conference team, with tournament conference results, where you typically are only playing the best teams.

 

I think this is closer to showing the advantage: as you point out, UNLV won about 70% of their games in the conference tournament (it looks like they went 12-5). If we look at the teams they played in the conference tournament, and how those games went in the regular season, it appears they only won about 53% (18-16) of those games -- indicating an advantage of roughly 17%. 

That isn't necessarily a bad way to look at it but it becomes a smaller, less reliable sample size. Do you have the figures on what the Rebels home game records were against those same teams vs tournament games?

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Thank you for this.

Go F your self San Diego homers. If we don't pull it out I'll be a lobo for the rest of the tourney.

Lol. Where do you see aztecs complaining? Damn, you might be one of the dumbest +++++s I have ever seen on a forum.

"Make like a tree and scram" - Rosegreen

 

Your administration is the reason why our basketball league is bleeding out currently. If you didn't insist on San Jose being in the MWC, so you guys would have someone that votes similar to SDSU, every team in the MWC wouldn't have to play 2 games vs. a team with a 330 RPI ranking EVERY season.

You guys are as stupid as you are desperate.   - Cowboy Junky

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Rebs have won 87% of conference home games since 2006-2007 season through the 2012-2013 season. During that time (2006-2007 through 2012-2013) they won approximately 70% of MWC tournament games and 67% of all conference games (home and away). *Note: The 2013-2014 season has not been included as it is not over yet and of course the tournament hasn't been played yet. The 2006-2013 years were chosen as this is when the tournament returned to the T&M after leaving Denver.

Bottom line...The Rebels may get to sleep in their own beds, play in their own building, eat at their favorite Chipotle, - this list goes on and on - but, statistically, the Rebels only win 3% more games in the tournament than they do in the regular season. Couple that with the fact that the Rebels win a significantly lower percentage of games in the tournament in the T&M than regular season home games at the T&M.

So let's stop calling it a "home court" or "home floor" advantage. Its just not true.

You have to assume the competition in tourney is tougher, right? Or am I off base?

"Make like a tree and scram" - Rosegreen

 

Your administration is the reason why our basketball league is bleeding out currently. If you didn't insist on San Jose being in the MWC, so you guys would have someone that votes similar to SDSU, every team in the MWC wouldn't have to play 2 games vs. a team with a 330 RPI ranking EVERY season.

You guys are as stupid as you are desperate.   - Cowboy Junky

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To me those stats mean little. For all we know, UNLV could've had a 40% win percentage in the tourney if it was played elsewhere.

The times BYU lost to UNLV in the tourney finals, I bet we would've seen a different result if the tourney was in Provo.

To me, that's all that matters. It's an advantage even if you fail to capitalize on it. That's your fault.

With that said, there's no better place for the tournament. Most fans just want to hear UNLV admit that an advantage exists and then they'll come to terms with the fact that Vegas is the ONLY option that makes sense for the tourney.

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To me those stats mean little. For all we know, UNLV could've had a 40% win percentage in the tourney if it was played elsewhere.

The times BYU lost to UNLV in the tourney finals, I bet we would've seen a different result if the tourney was in Provo.

To me, that's all that matters. It's an advantage even if you fail to capitalize on it. That's your fault.

With that said, there's no better place for the tournament. Most fans just want to hear UNLV admit that an advantage exists and then they'll come to terms with the fact that Vegas is the ONLY option that makes sense for the tourney.

 

Most Rebel fans here have been admitting for years that there is an advantage however it's not as big of one as you want it to be. You don't seem to want to hear us.

 

BTW I seem to remember BYU losing to UNLV in Provo a few times, about as many times as they lost to UNLV in the Tournament.

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nice try to manipulate statistics...

 

a more accurate metric would be the W/L ratio at the T&M against games played away from the T&M.  Given that the rebs have won 87% at home and 67% overall in conference games show that the rebs have a lower statistical chance of winning away from the T&M.  Now, given that the rebs have a 70% chance at winning a tourney game at the T&M...that would point to a 54% chance at winning if the conference tourney was rotated over a 8-10 year period  (the T&M would host once during that time period)

 

 

Rebs have won 87% of conference home games since 2006-2007 season through the 2012-2013 season. During that time (2006-2007 through 2012-2013) they won approximately 70% of MWC tournament games and 67% of all conference games (home and away).  *Note:  The 2013-2014 season has not been included as it is not over yet and of course the tournament hasn't been played yet.  The 2006-2013 years were chosen as this is when the tournament returned to the T&M after leaving Denver.

 

Bottom line...The Rebels may get to sleep in their own beds, play in their own building, eat at their favorite Chipotle, - this list goes on and on -  but, statistically, the Rebels only win 3% more games in the tournament than they do in the regular season. Couple that with the fact that the Rebels win a significantly lower percentage of games in the tournament in the T&M than regular season home games at the T&M.  

 

So let's stop calling it a "home court" or "home floor" advantage.  Its just not true.

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