what is the future of mwc

[SergiofromFresno]

For the Record OP- spc_ops is the other man at the table of this intricate mastermind plot.

[FSBulldogNation]

My personal choice to the Big 12 would be the Aztecs/Fresno State instead of Aztecs/UNLV.

The talks are happening but they are in the real early stages and not enough real chatter to say it will happend for sure. The Big 12 does want a piece of Socal though and the Aztecs are the logical choice to make that happen.

Hate to break it to you, bro, but the Aztecs being a "logical" choice is more of the Aztecs being the "only" choice. SoCal has USC & UCLA. The PAC twins. The Big XII isn't going to poach any PAC teams anytime in the near future. The only SoCal team left is San Diego State which plays in the best non-AQ conference. With the B12's AQ status, they figure it'd be easier to hand an offer to a non-AQ rather than trying to convince a pair of PAC teams to join the conference.

[Billings]

MWC will get a provisional waiver and be BCS. The big money to the AQ schools is not the BCS anymore. It is TV money. they will throw a few crumbs our way to keep the Gov off their backs and for appearances. Plus Comcast CBS/Comcast want another BCS league so they can brand the MWC a bit better in their TV packages.

We go to 12 for the 2013 season with two texas teams coming on board.

[Yoda]

I think that the PAC will eventually go to 12, taking their schools from the Big XII. The remnants of that conference will merge with the MWC (or at least with part of the MWC).

Yoda out...

.

[froginaustin]

Umm, didn't the Pac already go to 12?

Yoda likely meant to type "16".

Not that I agree with him; I don't. The Longhorn League might just make economic sense for the 7 dwarfs. They won't be able to do any better anywhere else money-wise.

UTx is getting everything it wants inside that league, and likely can't do better elsewhere.

OU and aTm will follow UTx.

[SergiofromFresno]

Ill give my 2 cents..

1. We are given provisional Aq.

2. The Big East goes to 12 and proceeds to poach at least 1 School(Perhaps 2 depending on UMass's performance and following) & adds a Philly School to go to 12.

3. The MWC raids CUSA and grabs SMU & UTEP- if Houston is also there after the Big East passes them up for UCF- they are also poached- The MWC is at 12 or 13 Schools depending on Houston

4. Negotiations with BYU begin- if they suceed BYU is added- if they fail and Houston is already gone to the Big East both or either San Jose State or UTSA are added for their Market Size.

5. The MWC is at 14 Schools and flaunts an impressive array of Markets.

6. The Cotton Bowl is added as a BCS Bowl

7. The Big 12 Shifts its tie-in from the Fiesta to the Cotton.

8. The MWC is granted Full Aq Status with a tie-in to the Fiesta Bowl.

[SergiofromFresno]

Do you actually believe this will happpen or is this what you are wishing for?

I think this is the likeliest chain of events- Our future is tied to the Cotton Bowl being made Aq and the Big East poaching CUSA.

You are welcomed to attempt to critique it.

[spc_ops]

For the Record OP- spc_ops is the other man at the table of this intricate mastermind plot.

what!? who?

Yes, from a Boise stand point I want to see the league plit east and west. If that means 12 or 14 so be it. But I am willing to wait for the right time and scenario for that to happen. I would hope that we could bring in a couple of top 50 programs say (houston and smu) that would bring in good AQ numbers as well as markets, the added revenue of a CG (although this gets dicey with the Hawaii 13th game). But until the TV revenue gets larger I am cool waiting.

And another scenario that I have been thinking about the last couple of days would be going to 11. We already have a weird schedule with skipping teams two years in a row, a weird east/west dynamic so why not, lets say if that 11th member existed and helped in these three categories ( TV market share, added value, BCS average ranking) Top candidates for this scenario = Houston market, not sure about added value, maybe their BCS numbers could help, but not much.

Tulsa would be bad TV market, good BCS numbers, not sure if they would add value. And of course the prodigal BYU but not going to beat that dead horse.

I think going to 14 makes sense if the Texas teams insist on being a package deal and if it makes sense in furthing the gap between us and CDOA.

After seeing BSU rack up a bunch of Texas recruits though, I am losing confidence in the whole "we need to be in Texas" but still think that it couldn't hurt anything.

[Pendleton]

My personal choice to the Big 12 would be the Aztecs/Fresno State instead of Aztecs/UNLV.

The talks are happening but they are in the real early stages and not enough real chatter to say it will happend for sure. The Big 12 does want a piece of Socal though and the Aztecs are the logical choice to make that happen.

Those talks must be happening in lala land. The Big12 is not the least bit interested in So Cal and especially San Diego.

After the recent Big12 meetings the Texas AD and others were adamant that the Big12 was not expanding.

[SleepingGiantFan]

I do believe that Schemmel is no longer at San Diego State. I haven't talked to him in 2 years.

You misunderstood, Steve. Weber hinted at SDSU to the Big 12 last January at the meeting at which the MWC let USU know they weren't wanted. However, even assuming Weber wasn't blowing smoke up the media's collective butts and was actually passing along something he heard, he very likely got his info from Schemmel, a proven BS artist.

[SleepingGiantFan]

Ill give my 2 cents..

1. We are given provisional Aq.

2. The Big East goes to 12 and proceeds to poach at least 1 School(Perhaps 2 depending on UMass's performance and following) & adds a Philly School to go to 12.

3. The MWC raids CUSA and grabs SMU & UTEP- if Houston is also there after the Big East passes them up for UCF- they are also poached- The MWC is at 12 or 13 Schools depending on Houston

4. Negotiations with BYU begin- if they suceed BYU is added- if they fail and Houston is already gone to the Big East both or either San Jose State or UTSA are added for their Market Size.

5. The MWC is at 14 Schools and flaunts an impressive array of Markets.

As I've said before, there simply is no reason to think the MWC will go to 14, at least not in the foreseeable future. Although you could be correct on 1-3, there would still be some huge variables at play.

Will the Big 12 expand? If so, BYU will be going there. If the Big 12 stays in existence but doesn't expand, BYU could go to the Big East. However, because of the distances involved, I doubt BYU would go to the BE if the MWC gains permanent AQ status and the conference's TV deal becomes good enough. The BYU would look to return to the MWC.

Of course, if the Big 12 breaks up, all bets are off. As the thread starter suggested, the obvious result of that will be for the most desirable of the MWC schools and probably a couple current CUSA schools as well as BYU to join the Big 12 schools which don't land elsewhere in forming a new Southwest Conference. Then and only then might some of us join the kind of 14-school conference you forecast as a possibly.

[Jack Bauer]

I just don't get why anyone would care if you added those markets to form a 14 team league.

None of those teams (Houston, SMU, UTEP), not one, carries any appreciable amount of their markets. There's so many sports options, and nobody cares if you're the 10th on a long list of professional and college teams ahead of you.

[mataipaepae]

I just don't get why anyone would care if you added those markets to form a 14 team league.

None of those teams (Houston, SMU, UTEP), not one, carries any appreciable amount of their markets. There's so many sports options, and nobody cares if you're the 10th on a long list of professional and college teams ahead of you.

it would help with recruiting though in texas. not saying you get the top guys but having texas teams in conference helps to get texas kids to your school.

[Side Show Joe]

what!? who?

Yes, from a Boise stand point I want to see the league plit east and west. If that means 12 or 14 so be it. But I am willing to wait for the right time and scenario for that to happen. I would hope that we could bring in a couple of top 50 programs say (houston and smu) that would bring in good AQ numbers as well as markets, the added revenue of a CG (although this gets dicey with the Hawaii 13th game). But until the TV revenue gets larger I am cool waiting.

And another scenario that I have been thinking about the last couple of days would be going to 11. We already have a weird schedule with skipping teams two years in a row, a weird east/west dynamic so why not, lets say if that 11th member existed and helped in these three categories ( TV market share, added value, BCS average ranking) Top candidates for this scenario = Houston market, not sure about added value, maybe their BCS numbers could help, but not much.

Tulsa would be bad TV market, good BCS numbers, not sure if they would add value. And of course the prodigal BYU but not going to beat that dead horse.

I think going to 14 makes sense if the Texas teams insist on being a package deal and if it makes sense in furthing the gap between us and CDOA.

After seeing BSU rack up a bunch of Texas recruits though, I am losing confidence in the whole "we need to be in Texas" but still think that it couldn't hurt anything.

The MWC had the largest market in Texas when they had TCU. The Dallas/Fort Worth market ranks 5th in the nation.

Here are the top media markets in Texas with national ranking:

5. DFW

10. Houston

37. San Antonio

51. Austin

If the MWC wants the biggest market in Texas and arguably the biggest hotbed of recruiting in the state, then they have to add either SMU or North Texas. I don't think SMU will leave C-USA.

[SergiofromFresno]

what!? who?

Yes, from a Boise stand point I want to see the league plit east and west. If that means 12 or 14 so be it. But I am willing to wait for the right time and scenario for that to happen. I would hope that we could bring in a couple of top 50 programs say (houston and smu) that would bring in good AQ numbers as well as markets, the added revenue of a CG (although this gets dicey with the Hawaii 13th game). But until the TV revenue gets larger I am cool waiting.

And another scenario that I have been thinking about the last couple of days would be going to 11. We already have a weird schedule with skipping teams two years in a row, a weird east/west dynamic so why not, lets say if that 11th member existed and helped in these three categories ( TV market share, added value, BCS average ranking) Top candidates for this scenario = Houston market, not sure about added value, maybe their BCS numbers could help, but not much.

Tulsa would be bad TV market, good BCS numbers, not sure if they would add value. And of course the prodigal BYU but not going to beat that dead horse.

I think going to 14 makes sense if the Texas teams insist on being a package deal and if it makes sense in furthing the gap between us and CDOA.

After seeing BSU rack up a bunch of Texas recruits though, I am losing confidence in the whole "we need to be in Texas" but still think that it couldn't hurt anything.

Excellent Post my Man- Divisions are a must- and while Boise may not need help with Texan Recuriting- our front range brethren need it. I'd forget Tulsa Though- UTEP & SMU+ Houston would want to come over as a Package..

[Jack Bauer]

it would help with recruiting though in texas. not saying you get the top guys but having texas teams in conference helps to get texas kids to your school.

It does and there's some hidden gems there, but it's still not the TV power you need to be AQ. That's just adding for the sake of adding.

[Jack Bauer]

Excellent Post my Man- Divisions are a must- and while Boise may not need help with Texan Recuriting- our front range brethren need it. I'd forget Tulsa Though- UTEP & SMU+ Houston would want to come over as a Package..

Does your speculation ever stop? Link for that claim?

Those teams were asked in the last MWC meetings and they resoundingly said no.

[mataipaepae]

It does and there's some hidden gems there, but it's still not the TV power you need to be AQ. That's just adding for the sake of adding.

it also adds quality to your teams though. which helps very much to be good.

[Jack Bauer]

it also adds quality to your teams though. which helps very much to be good.

I think SMU is on the up and up.

Houston is just Fresno in the Houston market. They don't have any pull to numbers or ratings there.

UTEP is a horrible program.

It increases recruiting, but I don't think you get the TV numbers from any of those teams to make a big push for a better contract. You'll get a better deal just because content is on the rise as far as television, but I don't think you go from 1.2 million per year now to 10 million with adding those teams.

I don't see the value in the markets, is what I'm saying. I see the value in the recruiting.

[mataipaepae]

I think SMU is on the up and up.

Houston is just Fresno in the Houston market. They don't have any pull to numbers or ratings there.

UTEP is a horrible program.

It increases recruiting, but I don't think you get the TV numbers from any of those teams to make a big push for a better contract. You'll get a better deal just because content is on the rise as far as television, but I don't think you go from 1.2 million per year now to 10 million with adding those teams.

I don't see the value in the markets, is what I'm saying. I see the value in the recruiting.

that is what i am getting at too. and recruiting is 80% of a programs life blood.

success goes along way for bcs status as well.