The New MWC: When and Who?

[Destiny Dutch]

This is how I see the "New MWC" shaping up.

Frankly, I see Air Force leveraging their relationship to Army & Navy into an American invite.

From there, I think the MWC will be lucky to hang onto New Mexico (who would give Air Force a partner). I think New Mexico is gone too. The AAC will lose teams to the "Pac 6," so they will at least take 2 (including Air Force). The fit is just too good.

Nevertheless, Gloria Nevarez has already said she will rebuild (in other words). It's just a matter of how many teams after the MWC gets poached twice (by the Pac and AAC).

This is very similar to when CUSA got hit with the double-poach... and Judy MacLeod was able to get them back to 12.

I think Gloria will be able to poach Judy.

However, she will have to react fast because the MWC will need to elevate teams from FCS. That being said, is it possible to get all of these teams moved up to the G6 level by the time teams leave?

Are these teams the consensus best choices?

I think Gloria will have to bring in the Montanas and Dakotas because when you don't have great quality it becomes more important to get quantity. The MWC needs 12 at a minimum for a media deal that will only be valued as filler (for now).

We will need "content" like CUSA.

 

 

[Gator 82]

I think you stay at 8 for right now. 

[Destiny Dutch]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:57 PM, Gator 82 said:

I think you stay at 8 for right now. 

At first blush I agree staying at 8 sounds like the move.

However, we still need a new media deal and if its more valued for the amount of content then Gloria will need to begin the process of elevating prospects sooner than later.

You may be right though.

[nvspuds]

On 9/12/2024 at 7:57 PM, Gator 82 said:

I think you stay at 8 for right now. 

That would leave only 7 full members.  My guess they add 1 to get to 9 for football and 8 for the other sports..

[Rosegreen]

On 9/12/2024 at 7:57 PM, Gator 82 said:

I think you stay at 8 for right now. 

It’s going to be 4 at some point. I don’t see Air Force, New Mexico, Utah State, UNLV sticking around. All 4 are probably headed to the AAC after they get poached by the PAC. 
 

The leftover MW conference is going to be on life support, adding Sac State, Montana schools, Dakota schools, UTEP and Texas State. 

[Chalsean]

On 9/13/2024 at 2:55 AM, Destiny Dutch said:

This is how I see the "New MWC" shaping up.

Frankly, I see Air Force leveraging their relationship to Army & Navy into an American invite.

From there, I think the MWC will be lucky to hang onto New Mexico (who would give Air Force a partner). I think New Mexico is gone too. The AAC will lose teams to the "Pac 6," so they will at least take 2 (including Air Force). The fit is just too good.

Nevertheless, Gloria Nevarez has already said she will rebuild (in other words). It's just a matter of how many teams after the MWC gets poached twice (by the Pac and AAC).

This is very similar to when CUSA got hit with the double-poach... and Judy MacLeod was able to get them back to 12.

I think Gloria will be able to poach Judy.

However, she will have to react fast because the MWC will need to elevate teams from FCS. That being said, is it possible to get all of these teams moved up to the G6 level by the time teams leave?

Are these teams the consensus best choices?

I think Gloria will have to bring in the Montanas and Dakotas because when you don't have great quality it becomes more important to get quantity. The MWC needs 12 at a minimum for a media deal that will only be valued as filler (for now).

We will need "content" like CUSA.

 

 

do plan on kicking UNM out?

nm i need to read before i reply  -.-

[lobo-tomy]

Add NMSU and UTEP. I think we'd have great scheduling with 10 football teams and 9 basketball teams. 

I'd be happy at that. I'm not crazy about adding the Directional Dakotas nor the Montana schools. Not that I think we're better, it's just not a fit IMO. It works for Wyoming I suppose so we should consider that. 

Joining the AAC just sounds like a nightmare to me. Why play in someone else's wade pool?

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

The PAC is going to try to poach the aac, as they should, but only see UNT and UTSA as remote possibilities.  I suspect espn/aac will work things to keep their Texas products they have left.

I like the Dakota and Montana schools for the new MWC but the first call(s) need to be to Texas for Sam Houston State and Texas State.

Ultimately I see UNLV and WYO going to the PAC, assuming the PAC gets a media deal and survives.

I see AFA quickly calling the AAC.

AAC likely has zero interest in NM.  Back when they had leverage for expansion there were only three schools they were interested in and two of them joined the PAC already. 

[An Admirer from the East]

I hate this for the MWC. They will have some cash to flash so I think they will survive. If a rump remains say: SJSU, Hawaii, WY, USU, UNR, UNM, I think they can get UTEP and NMSU. But if the conference looks really weak then may be hard to attract other FBS teams to join. Gloria is in a very precarious position. They need to add some replacements now!

[Nickp1991]

Things to monitor in this new wave of realignment: The Dakotas

[alum93]

If it's generally agreed that MWC schools would leave to backfill AAC schools,  say 3-4 of them,  why would NMSU and UTEP want to join?  Put it another way, what guarantee could the MWC teams give to anyone joining that the current schools will be there in 2-3 years?  I don't know the answer.  But NMSU has been burned by the Sun Belt and WAC.  They were left as an independent when USU, SJSU, Nevada, Fresno left them to join the MWC.  Now you would be asking both NMSU and UTEP to leave a stable CUSA and at the same time, wink wink, saying don't worry the current schools aren't going anywhere.  And by the way, pay exit fees on your way out of CUSA to join a MWC with multiple teams looking for their own way out.  It would be a tough sell.  If i were AD at either school, i would be extremely cautious in this environment.  Now had the invite come a year or two ago and everything looked stable, they would both sign in a nanosecond.  But after the PAC pulling 4 teams and targeting at least 2 more AAC schools, which will need to be replaced, i just don't know.  I think for northern FCS schools that have always dreamed of getting an FBS call, it might be an easier decision, regardless of future MWC losses.

[Poster17]

I don't like the idea of UNLV going to the AAC.  Seems like a lateral move with little upside.  If it ain't the PAC or B12 calling, they should stay here in the MWC.  I think most schools should.  AF might want to join their military brothers in arms in the AAC.  That would make sense, but everyone else should stay.  As for MWC expansion, I'd look to UTEP for sure with New Mexico St, Montana, and Montana St. as maybe's.  

[smithy]

I would think UNLV would go to court to break the tie in with Reno and end up in PAC12 and NM will come along with the 2 texas schools. This will give PAC12 a strong Nevada market and keep a BB foothold with NM. AFA will go AAC. Gloria should also look at Eastern Washington, and Cal Poly for football, and hit Long Beach, Santa Barbara and Irvine for BB. That will still leave a SCal presence in some sort and keep up BB for credits. Perhaps having the Montana and Dakota schools with USU and Pokes be in MTN division and then have SAC, Cal Poly, Reno, SJSU, EW and Hawaii in the West. Leave out UTEP. 

[Rosegreen]

On 9/13/2024 at 9:28 AM, Poster17 said:

I don't like the idea of UNLV going to the AAC.  Seems like a lateral move with little upside.  If it ain't the PAC or B12 calling, they should stay here in the MWC.  I think most schools should.  AF might want to join their military brothers in arms in the AAC.  That would make sense, but everyone else should stay.  As for MWC expansion, I'd look to UTEP for sure with New Mexico St, Montana, and Montana St. as maybe's.  

We can’t afford to stay in the MWC under that scenario. Our media revenue would be a fraction of what it currently is. 

The options for unlv: 

1- Join PAC, pay the penalties and possibly litigation from Reno. 
2- Join Big12, pay the exit fee, negotiate a reduced payout agreement with b12 with the option of full payouts in the future after meeting certain requirements and conditions. 
3- Join AAC, pay exit fee. Will require full payout as other members, maybe more to cover travel. Our media revenue will more than double though travel costs will go up. UNLV will probably be back on BIG MONDAY on ESPN since ESPN is the AAC distributor. 
 

Option one could be beneficial, especially if they add some significant basketball programs. Option two will be tough sledding in a big conference though we won’t have to worry about our budgets and future prospects in conferences. Stability will be the main attraction and playing premier programs in all sports.  
 

Option three will be the last resort, we cannot stay in the MWC. Can’t afford it. 

[nvspuds]

I don't think Nevada is actually tied to UNLV athletics and the Rebels should be able to leave without NV if  they get invited somewhere.  I have zero problem is UNLV gets another opportunity.  I sincerly doubt Nevada would sue UNLV.  They will just take their share of the exit fees and carry on.

I am unconvinced UNLV was passed over just because of the possible Nevada angle.  

[NorthWestCowboy]

On 9/12/2024 at 10:51 PM, lobo-tomy said:

Add NMSU and UTEP. I think we'd have great scheduling with 10 football teams and 9 basketball teams. 

I'd be happy at that. I'm not crazy about adding the Directional Dakotas nor the Montana schools. Not that I think we're better, it's just not a fit IMO. It works for Wyoming I suppose so we should consider that. 

Joining the AAC just sounds like a nightmare to me. Why play in someone else's wade pool?

As a Wyoming fan the only way I would ever consider the AAC is if both UNLV and Nevada go to the PAC.  Just consider what is left out west if UNLV and Nevada go to the PAC (SJSU, Hawaii NM St and UTEP).  Under this scenario Wyoming, UNM, AFA and USU have to at least consider looking east.  I suppose you could say, why not join C-USA instead since UTEP and NM St are already there?  C-USA really sucks so it's a no go.  The AAC does at least have to be considered.

[alum93]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:33 PM, Rosegreen said:

It’s going to be 4 at some point. I don’t see Air Force, New Mexico, Utah State, UNLV sticking around. All 4 are probably headed to the AAC after they get poached by the PAC. 
 

The leftover MW conference is going to be on life support, adding Sac State, Montana schools, Dakota schools, UTEP and Texas State. 

I don't think UTEP joins until they know what happens with PAC expansion and AAC/MWC schools affected.  Same for Texas State or NMSU.  The Sun Belt and CUSA are stable whereas every school in MWC has to be looking out for itself and hoping to not be the last 2 or 3 teams without a home.  Gloria and presidents have a difficult job on their hands.  Losing 4 of your biggest programs is rough.  I imagine Montana or any Big Sky school will also have the same concerns.

[spc_ops]

step one, retain current members. step 2, Add one to get to nine.

I would think taking FCS as last resort is best approach. NMSU would come for sure. What about Idaho? sure they are FCS but they have FBS experience.

 

[Poster17]

On 9/13/2024 at 10:35 AM, Rosegreen said:

We can’t afford to stay in the MWC under that scenario. Our media revenue would be a fraction of what it currently is. 

The options for unlv: 

1- Join PAC, pay the penalties and possibly litigation from Reno. 
2- Join Big12, pay the exit fee, negotiate a reduced payout agreement with b12 with the option of full payouts in the future after meeting certain requirements and conditions. 
3- Join AAC, pay exit fee. Will require full payout as other members, maybe more to cover travel. Our media revenue will more than double though travel costs will go up. UNLV will probably be back on BIG MONDAY on ESPN since ESPN is the AAC distributor. 
 

Option one could be beneficial, especially if they add some significant basketball programs. Option two will be tough sledding in a big conference though we won’t have to worry about our budgets and future prospects in conferences. Stability will be the main attraction and playing premier programs in all sports.  
 

Option three will be the last resort, we cannot stay in the MWC. Can’t afford it. 

Option 2 is the best, but that requires the B12 to actually want them.  Not sure if that is the case.  Next best is PAC, but again we don't seem to be wanted by them.   I guess financials will determine the MWC or the AAC.

[spc_ops]

On 9/13/2024 at 11:58 AM, spc_ops said:

step one, retain current members. step 2, Add one to get to nine.

I would think taking FCS as last resort is best approach. NMSU would come for sure. What about Idaho? sure they are FCS but they have FBS experience.

 

Montana and Montana St rank #2 and #3 respectively in FCS Attendance and outdraw half of the MWC schools.