Five years from now, will we have a Pac-12 and a Mountain West?

[Shaker]

It very well could be the ACC drags on. 

If you read in the MWC By-Laws you will see the cut off date is June 30. So a team could announce this week and and still only pay the $17million and start in a new conference on August 2, 2025. For the 2026 year they have until June 30,  2025 so still plenty of time. Not saying any team will or will not but there is still a year if teams want out before they have to pay the full $34million

[nvspuds]

On 6/23/2024 at 1:15 PM, Shaker said:

It very well could be the ACC drags on. 

If you read in the MWC By-Laws you will see the cut off date is June 30. So a team could announce this week and and still only pay the $17million and start in a new conference on August 2, 2025. For the 2026 year they have until June 30,  2025 so still plenty of time. Not saying any team will or will not but there is still a year if teams want out before they have to pay the full $34million

The 17 million is for 2 years notice.  34 million for 1 year's notice..If they announce they are leaving in 2025 for the 26 season it is still just a 1 year notice.  34 million.  If any MW school wants to be in the Pac by fall of 26 and spend 17 million bucks, they have to announce this week.  The grace period for OSU and Wazzu to form a conference ends in June 2026.  

The schools really wanting to leave the MW are in a tough spot right now.  Unless the Pac2 gets a long term and more lucrative tv deal this week, the departing hopefuls will not even know what they are leaving for.  

[Chalsean]

On 6/23/2024 at 2:15 PM, Shaker said:

It very well could be the ACC drags on. 

If you read in the MWC By-Laws you will see the cut off date is June 30. So a team could announce this week and and still only pay the $17million and start in a new conference on August 2, 2025. For the 2026 year they have until June 30,  2025 so still plenty of time. Not saying any team will or will not but there is still a year if teams want out before they have to pay the full $34million

I just don't see it personally.  $17 million is still a chunk of change unless WOSU is going to pony up for 4-6 schools.  And what does anyone get in return?  WOSU vs USU/SJSU?  Yeah they're better on some fronts but the MWC is stable right now and in this current environment that's worth its weight in gold.  Plus how much can you really trust WOSU right now?  Any institution going out to be vagabonds with WOSU has little to gain and much to lose.  I just don't see any university president or ad foolish enough to do this outside of SDSU.

[Brew_Poke]

On 6/24/2024 at 7:54 AM, Chalsean said:

I just don't see it personally.  $17 million is still a chunk of change unless WOSU is going to pony up for 4-6 schools.  And what does anyone get in return?  WOSU vs USU/SJSU?  Yeah they're better on some fronts but the MWC is stable right now and in this current environment that's worth its weight in gold.  Plus how much can you really trust WOSU right now?  Any institution going out to be vagabonds with WOSU has little to gain and much to lose.  I just don't see any university president or ad foolish enough to do this outside of SDSU.

SDSU has prestige thirst and wants to bail in a vainglorious attempt at differentiating themselves in the market. They think there's a space above the bulk of the MWC for them that'll make them feel better about themselves. I don't know how to explain it, I just know that it'll be so +++++ing funny if they leave and it doesn't work out for them a third time.

[SteedLaw]

On 6/24/2024 at 7:54 AM, Chalsean said:

I just don't see it personally.  $17 million is still a chunk of change unless WOSU is going to pony up for 4-6 schools.  And what does anyone get in return?  WOSU vs USU/SJSU?  Yeah they're better on some fronts but the MWC is stable right now and in this current environment that's worth its weight in gold.  Plus how much can you really trust WOSU right now?  Any institution going out to be vagabonds with WOSU has little to gain and much to lose.  I just don't see any university president or ad foolish enough to do this outside of SDSU.

It is not just $17MM vs.$34MM per school. There are also many million in penalties to OSU/WSU and the PAC for poaching ala carte from the MWC...not to mention many millions more in administration and legal fees to schools/teams who would otherwise be looking to leave piecemeal. Unless schools/teams get invites to the B1G Ten or the SEC, then NOBODY has that type of money to leave separately from the rest of the pack. 

Guys...the piecemeal/ala carte option it is not happening. Any talking head sports pundit saying otherwise is selling a load of shit and does not know what he is talking about. 

OSU/WSU are still hoping against hope that the Big 12 or the ACC come riding to their rescue. At this point, that is a snowball's chance in hell. Neither of those conferences are taking schools/teams located in Pullman, Washington or Corvallis, Oregon -- and you can count on it. As time marches on, this becomes increasingly the case.  OSU/WSU have now waited so long that their Football and BB programs are all but entirely gutted. (This is the price of waiting too long to join a conference.)

IF the P5 are expanding further in the next 5 years (a BIG "IF"), then Pullman, WA and Corvalis, OR are not even on the radar -- sorry, but that is just the truth of it. 

It is inevitable: OSU/WSU are either joining us or we are ALL joining them. 

There is ZERO chance that there will be a separate PAC and MWC in the future -- the combination of the two is inevitable. 

Done and FULL STOP. ;)

[Raz]

This shot-gun marriage with the MWC simply buys Washington State and Oregon State time to figure out what’s next.  That is it.  Most likely outcome?  Washington State and Oregon State along with Clemson and Florida State plus BiG members like Northwestern and Purdue along with Cal and Stanford reform the PAC. This makes for a solid foundation.   Too bad the $10M poison pill exists for worthy MWC teams.  Without it SDSU and UNLV and Fresno would run to join the PAC.  But 2027, when the $10M buyout term expires, comes soon enough.  

[NevadaFan]

On 6/24/2024 at 11:56 AM, Raz said:

This shot-gun marriage with the MWC simply buys Washington State and Oregon State time to figure out what’s next.  That is it.  Most likely outcome?  Washington State and Oregon State along with Clemson and Florida State plus BiG members like Northwestern and Purdue along with Cal and Stanford reform the PAC. This makes for a solid foundation.   Too bad the $10M poison pill exists for worthy MWC teams.  Without it SDSU and UNLV and Fresno would run to join the PAC.  But 2027, when the $10M buyout term expires, comes soon enough.  

“Washington State and Oregon State along with Clemson and Florida State plus BiG members like Northwestern and Purdue along with Cal and Stanford reform the PAC.”
Haha. 

[Wyobraska]

On 6/24/2024 at 12:56 PM, Raz said:

This shot-gun marriage with the MWC simply buys Washington State and Oregon State time to figure out what’s next.  That is it.  Most likely outcome?  Washington State and Oregon State along with Clemson and Florida State plus BiG members like Northwestern and Purdue along with Cal and Stanford reform the PAC. This makes for a solid foundation.   Too bad the $10M poison pill exists for worthy MWC teams.  Without it SDSU and UNLV and Fresno would run to join the PAC.  But 2027, when the $10M buyout term expires, comes soon enough.  

Your trolling is terrible and you should feel bad about how weak it is.  

[utenation]

On 6/22/2024 at 9:25 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Yeah, that would have been a brilliant move. Absolutely freaking brilliant. Don't quit your day job. 

You are right. But Woosh is an expert on body bag games. The last several years, UCF is 3-9 (25%) against P4 competition.  I didn’t count their wins over Houston or Cincy last year since those are realistically AAC turds with a new B12 shirt on just like UCF.
 

So when it comes to body bags, his school has a whole warehouse full of them.  

[Destiny Dutch]

On 6/24/2024 at 10:21 AM, Brew_Poke said:

SDSU has prestige thirst and wants to bail in a vainglorious attempt at differentiating themselves in the market. They think there's a space above the bulk of the MWC for them that'll make them feel better about themselves. I don't know how to explain it, I just know that it'll be so +++++ing funny if they leave and it doesn't work out for them a third time.

 

SDSU has been part of realignment talks for as long as I’ve watched college sports and the only time it ever actually happened was when the MWC broke away from the WAC

[Destiny Dutch]

On 6/25/2024 at 12:01 AM, utenation said:

You are right. But Woosh is an expert on body bag games. The last several years, UCF is 3-9 (25%) against P4 competition.  I didn’t count their wins over Houston or Cincy last year since those are realistically AAC turds with a new B12 shirt on just like UCF.
 

So when it comes to body bags, his school has a whole warehouse full of them.  

 

Every P4 conference except the SEC has one-time AAC teams in it.

[Destiny Dutch]

The Big East just finalized a six-year media rights deal with Fox, NBC, and TNT starting in 2025-26. Financial terms are still being finalized, but a significant rights fee increase is expected.

This is important because basketball rights are now seeing big increases (and the MWC just had twice as many bids as the Big East).

[utenation]

On 6/24/2024 at 11:06 PM, Destiny Dutch said:

 

Every P4 conference except the SEC has one-time AAC teams in it.

So does this suddenly make Houston, UCF and Cincy less stinky? Combined the 3 were 6-21 in conference play last year.  
 

Where I come from, that’s called a turd. 

[SteedLaw]

On 6/24/2024 at 11:38 PM, utenation said:

So does this suddenly make Houston, UCF and Cincy less stinky? Combined the 3 were 6-21 in conference play last year.  
 

Where I come from, that’s called a turd. 

I might be in the minority, but I fully predict that the likes of Utah, ASU, and Arizona will grow tired of their affiliation with the Big 12 -- probably sooner than later. I think Coach Whit is already rethinking the long-term veracity of that alignment. 

Assuming those schools don't find their way into the B1G 10, those three are likely to find their way back into PAC membership. Oh, not this year and maybe not even this decade -- but, eventually, those large public research institutions are going to find their way either into the BIG 10, or back home to the PAC.

Just my long-term prediction. 

Ultimately, the Utes are going to find out they don't have much in common with schools like WVU, Cincy, and UCF. They also have very little in common with religious schools like BYU and TCU. So, yeah, I think the long-term destiny for those schools is to make it to the BIG 10, or come back home to the PAC. 

[Chalsean]

On 6/25/2024 at 9:24 AM, SteedLaw said:

I might be in the minority, but I fully predict that the likes of Utah, ASU, and Arizona will grow tired of their affiliation with the Big 12 -- probably sooner than later. I think Coach Whit is already rethinking the long-term veracity of that alignment. 

Assuming those schools don't find their way into the B1G 10, those three are likely to find their way back into PAC membership. Oh, not this year and maybe not even this decade -- but, eventually, those large public research institutions are going to find their way either into the BIG 10, or back home to the PAC.

Just my long-term prediction. 

Ultimately, the Utes are going to find out they don't have much in common with schools like WVU, Cincy, and UCF. They also have very little in common with religious schools like BYU and TCU. So, yeah, I think the long-term destiny for those schools is to make it to the BIG 10, or come back home to the PAC. 

Disagree on Zona, they like being in the toughest bball conference.  UU/ASU were somewhat unwilling participants.

[alum93]

On 6/25/2024 at 9:24 AM, SteedLaw said:

I might be in the minority, but I fully predict that the likes of Utah, ASU, and Arizona will grow tired of their affiliation with the Big 12 -- probably sooner than later. I think Coach Whit is already rethinking the long-term veracity of that alignment. 

Assuming those schools don't find their way into the B1G 10, those three are likely to find their way back into PAC membership. Oh, not this year and maybe not even this decade -- but, eventually, those large public research institutions are going to find their way either into the BIG 10, or back home to the PAC.

Just my long-term prediction. 

Ultimately, the Utes are going to find out they don't have much in common with schools like WVU, Cincy, and UCF. They also have very little in common with religious schools like BYU and TCU. So, yeah, I think the long-term destiny for those schools is to make it to the BIG 10, or come back home to the PAC. 

There will be no PAC to come back to.  The powers that be will squeeze every penny out of the existing model for college athletics, and then the big boys will eventually separate completely.  When that happens, it won't matter how many conferences there are at the new level.  For arguments sake, it will probably be something like 4 super conferences with 16-20 teams.   My guess is its right at 64 teams split in 4 conferences.   It could even be 3 super conferences, BiG, SEC, and best of the rest of P3.  One thing is certain, no one in the MWC, CUSA, MAC, or Sun Belt needs to worry.  And that's a good thing.  

[SteedLaw]

On 6/25/2024 at 10:28 AM, alum93 said:

There will be no PAC to come back to.  The powers that be will squeeze every penny out of the existing model for college athletics, and then the big boys will eventually separate completely.  When that happens, it won't matter how many conferences there are at the new level.  For arguments sake, it will probably be something like 4 super conferences with 16-20 teams.   My guess is its right at 64 teams split in 4 conferences.   It could even be 3 super conferences, BiG, SEC, and best of the rest of P3.  One thing is certain, no one in the MWC, CUSA, MAC, or Sun Belt needs to worry.  And that's a good thing.  

With all due respect, I can't even see the above as a possibility. A minimum 96 teams will need to be considered "in" for FBS purposes moving forward.

 

Personally, I think it will be as follows:

1) Top Teir: B1G and SEC -- Both these conferences will go to at least 20 teams each.  If this is a relegation league, this is the top leagues of the top tier. (i.e., 40-50 teams in total). 

2) ACC/BIg 12/PAC(MWC)/AAC -- Each of these conference will be "in", but will have far less money than the top 2 conferences. Each of these conferences will have no more than 14-16 teams. If this were a relegation league, this is the bottom leagues of the top tier. (i.e., 56-64 teams in total).

3) MAC/CUSA/Sunbelt -- The guys left over in these conferences will be out. Teams in these conferences will either move up or will end up dying with their league (or dropping to FCS). 

There will be no MWC. All current MWC teams are going to merge with the PAC before the end of 2024.

In the end, FBS will consolidate to 6 conferences (2 top tier and 4 bottom tier) with somewhere around 96-114 teams -- though probably will float around 100 teams in total

 

So, yeah, I guess I believe somewhat similar as you, but I think they are going to draw the line at 96-114 teams. While I agree they would love to drop more than that, it is going to be very difficult (even impossible) for them to do that. 

That is the way I see it.

 

[utenation]

On 6/25/2024 at 9:24 AM, SteedLaw said:

I might be in the minority, but I fully predict that the likes of Utah, ASU, and Arizona will grow tired of their affiliation with the Big 12 -- probably sooner than later. I think Coach Whit is already rethinking the long-term veracity of that alignment. 

Assuming those schools don't find their way into the B1G 10, those three are likely to find their way back into PAC membership. Oh, not this year and maybe not even this decade -- but, eventually, those large public research institutions are going to find their way either into the BIG 10, or back home to the PAC.

Just my long-term prediction. 

Ultimately, the Utes are going to find out they don't have much in common with schools like WVU, Cincy, and UCF. They also have very little in common with religious schools like BYU and TCU. So, yeah, I think the long-term destiny for those schools is to make it to the BIG 10, or come back home to the PAC. 

Quite a few B12 fans have been flipping Kyle shit about him saying "I don't think we're done with realignment" and " I think Utah will be in another conference".

They've taken that as we're too good for the B12. Not true at all. Kyle is old school, I'm 99% sure he's just sick of all the changes and being realistic that the yard sale isn't done yet.  He hates NIL. But he says, we have to do it to stay alive.  NIL and realignment will be what forced him to retirement. 

As far as the future. No clue. But we've been attached to BYU for decades, so I think the religion is a non factor considering a good portion of our fans are LDS as well. I also don't think we view TCU in the same light. They were a great rival in the MWC. I think our fans are happy to be reunited with them. 

 

[alum93]

On 6/25/2024 at 11:27 AM, SteedLaw said:

With all due respect, I can't even see the above as a possibility. A minimum 96 teams will need to be considered "in" for FBS purposes moving forward.

 

Personally, I think it will be as follows:

1) Top Teir: B1G and SEC -- Both these conferences will go to at least 20 teams each.  If this is a relegation league, this is the top leagues of the top tier. (i.e., 40-50 teams in total). 

2) ACC/BIg 12/PAC(MWC)/AAC -- Each of these conference will be "in", but will have far less money than the top 2 conferences. Each of these conferences will have no more than 14-16 teams. If this were a relegation league, this is the bottom leagues of the top tier. (i.e., 56-64 teams in total).

3) MAC/CUSA/Sunbelt -- The guys left over in these conferences will be out. Teams in these conferences will either move up or will end up dying with their league (or dropping to FCS). 

There will be no MWC. All current MWC teams are going to merge with the PAC before the end of 2024.

In the end, FBS will consolidate to 6 conferences (2 top tier and 4 bottom tier) with somewhere around 96-114 teams -- though probably will float around 100 teams in total

 

So, yeah, I guess I believe somewhat similar as you, but I think they are going to draw the line at 96-114 teams. While I agree they would love to drop more than that, it is going to be very difficult (even impossible) for them to do that. 

That is the way I see it.

 

You are a USU fan.  They will be in the same boat as NMSU and every other G5 school.  The price to compete in the new super conferences will be so high for football that it will make no sense to even try.  And that includes every MWC school.  My guess is the cut off number will be in the 50-65 range.  Assuming no P4 teams drop down, at the highest it will be in the 60s.  If the very bottom of P4 don't make the cut, possibly 50s, but i doubt it.  If i had to take one school that could possibly make the jump, and it would be based on surrounding market and a strong basketball history, i would place my bet on SDSU.  But even then, i think it's very unlikely anyone gets a call up in the future.  There is no point in having any split at all if you keep 96-114 teams.  Might as well just have current FBS at that point.  And since football is driving this bus,  i can't see how any G5 school in a small market with football stadiums that sit 30k could possibly justify the higher cost.  And there are many of those out there, including USU and NMSU.  USU sits 25.5k and NMSU sits 28.9k per Google.  UNM sits 39.2k.  What do the P4 schools in Utah sit?  54.4k and 63.5k for Utah and BYU.  How would you make up the revenue for stadiums with double your capacity and higher ticket prices?  It's a G5 vs P4 thing, specifically football which drove the realignments the last few years.  NIL and unlimited transfer and play just put the gap between the have and have nots on steroids.

There is a reason WSU and OSU were the last ones left behind.  They just happened to be in the PAC when it fell apart.  Had it been the ACC or B12 and the PAC was the one poaching, you can bet there would be some small market teams that would have been sweating in those conferences.

[Raz]

On 6/25/2024 at 10:24 AM, SteedLaw said:

I might be in the minority, but I fully predict that the likes of Utah, ASU, and Arizona will grow tired of their affiliation with the Big 12 -- probably sooner than later. I think Coach Whit is already rethinking the long-term veracity of that alignment. 

Assuming those schools don't find their way into the B1G 10, those three are likely to find their way back into PAC membership. Oh, not this year and maybe not even this decade -- but, eventually, those large public research institutions are going to find their way either into the BIG 10, or back home to the PAC.

Just my long-term prediction. 

Ultimately, the Utes are going to find out they don't have much in common with schools like WVU, Cincy, and UCF. They also have very little in common with religious schools like BYU and TCU. So, yeah, I think the long-term destiny for those schools is to make it to the BIG 10, or come back home to the PAC. 

Good insights.  Utah, Colorado and the ASU and Zona are prime candidates to return to a reformed PAC.