Five years from now, will we have a Pac-12 and a Mountain West?

[Raz]

from today's Hotline Mailbag.  Jon Wilner is a smart cookie and assessments correct in the main.  To quibble... Jon's percentages for MW only or the combo option are too optimistic IMO.

There is much more to the article... the cut n paste only includes the beginning. 

"Five years from now, will we have a Pac-12 and a Mountain West? Or just a Pac-12? Or no Pac-12 at all? 

The name of the game in major college football is consolidation, and there is zero reason to expect anything else in the next decade at the Power Four and Group of Five levels.  Instead of selecting a single outcome from the three posed above, the Hotline prefers to offer projections on each:

Pac-12 only: 65%
MW only: 30%
Pac-12 and MW: 5%

It’s difficult to envision a scenario in which competing conferences across the Mountain and Pacific Time zones, both at the Group of Five level, would serve the interests of all the schools involved. There just aren’t enough schools to support two leagues."

[EvilPoke]

On 6/1/2024 at 6:58 AM, Raz said:

from today's Hotline Mailbag.  Jon Wilner is a smart cookie and assessments correct in the main.  To quibble... Jon's percentages for MW only or the combo option are too optimistic IMO.

There is much more to the article... the cut n paste only includes the beginning. 

"Five years from now, will we have a Pac-12 and a Mountain West? Or just a Pac-12? Or no Pac-12 at all? 

The name of the game in major college football is consolidation, and there is zero reason to expect anything else in the next decade at the Power Four and Group of Five levels.  Instead of selecting a single outcome from the three posed above, the Hotline prefers to offer projections on each:

Pac-12 only: 65%
MW only: 30%
Pac-12 and MW: 5%

It’s difficult to envision a scenario in which competing conferences across the Mountain and Pacific Time zones, both at the Group of Five level, would serve the interests of all the schools involved. There just aren’t enough schools to support two leagues."

The only way there's not a Pac-## is if W/OSU are bailed out and get into the Big 12/P-ACC.

[RSF]

On 6/1/2024 at 7:58 AM, Raz said:

Jon Wilner is a smart cookie and assessments correct in the main. 

Stopped reading after that.

[soupslam1]

I’ve got to think western athletes are going to get really tired of traveling east for half their games especially Stanford and Cal who will be playing the eastern seaboard schools. That’s a long round trip over a weekend. 

It would not surprise me to see a new PAC form in several years. How that will relate to the current PAC2 and the MWC is anyone’s guess. 

[crixus]

On 6/1/2024 at 9:04 AM, RSF said:

Stopped reading after that.

[Wyobraska]

On 6/1/2024 at 11:58 AM, soupslam1 said:

I’ve got to think western athletes are going to get really tired of traveling east for half their games especially Stanford and Cal who will be playing the eastern seaboard schools. That’s a long round trip over a weekend. 

It would not surprise me to see a new PAC form in several years. How that will relate to the current PAC2 and the MWC is anyone’s guess. 

At some point for the P4 schools, there has to be a consolidation and realignment scenario.  This current model doesn't make sense for a lot of reasons and won't be sustainable.  

[nvspuds]

On 6/1/2024 at 10:58 AM, soupslam1 said:

I’ve got to think western athletes are going to get really tired of traveling east for half their games especially Stanford and Cal who will be playing the eastern seaboard schools. That’s a long round trip over a weekend. 

It would not surprise me to see a new PAC form in several years. How that will relate to the current PAC2 and the MWC is anyone’s guess. 

Possibly, but they are all professional athletes now and the big money is in P4 conferences..I am guessing they will live with the travel.

[Loyal Coug]

On 6/1/2024 at 10:58 AM, soupslam1 said:

I’ve got to think western athletes are going to get really tired of traveling east for half their games especially Stanford and Cal who will be playing the eastern seaboard schools. That’s a long round trip over a weekend. 

It would not surprise me to see a new PAC form in several years. How that will relate to the current PAC2 and the MWC is anyone’s guess. 

You mean like Stanford on a Friday at Syacuse?

Cal on a Friday at Wake Forest?

Oregon on a Friday at Purdue?

uw on a Friday at Rutgers?

Big-12 traitors get off pretty easy except Utah at UCF on a Friday.

[Loyal Coug]

On 6/1/2024 at 7:50 AM, EvilPoke said:

The only way there's not a Pac-## is if W/OSU are bailed out and get into the Big 12/P-ACC.

Wilner's prediction(s) are sort of a no-brainer, despite the delusions that WSU (and OSU?) may have.

For your reading pleasure and likely ridicule, something I posted on my home board yesterday. 176 views to date since yesterday, No replies:

Good but mostly uninformative interview(s). (Note - referring to an interview w/WSU's interim AD) A lot of hemming and hawing, including a reference to P-2 Commissioner Teresa Gould as a "well-seasoned pro suited for this unique role". Yeah, right. After her tutelage under Larry Scott and Quackkoff. Anne does mention a rebuilt Pac-12 as a possibility, along with "it's important that we be patient". Funny that Brand X asked about her correspondence (if any) with the Big-12 and ACC Commissioners but doesn't ask about conversations (if any) with my Twitter-confirmed admirer Gloria Navarez of the MW.

That missing, I guess yet another relatively short but prophetic rant is warranted from the Mighty Loyal One.

Ok:

• No one and I mean no one mentions WSU in what little chatter there is about further reconfiguration. OSU? Some but not much
• All reputable fingers point to the ACC implosion as being YEARS off, what with the sure to be drawn out legal BS with FSU, Clemson, etc. Our 2-year window will have sailed long before that, along with a shit ton of lost NCAA money, affiliation payments, and lack of new NCAA credits. And there are a host of backfill candidates that ARE mentioned, some of which are also present in our fantasy conference delusions
• Speaking of, the West Coast ACC "pod" is never mentioned anywhere, unless perhaps in some clickbait Twitter post (like Utah to the ACC). And why would the ACC seek to shore up CalFurd, two poorly watched programs that had to beg their way into the conference in the first place? By one vote. Oh let's help them out with some more poorly thought of or desired programs that have poor viewership? And increase our own travel costs when we could damn near carpool to other existing candidates' locations? What-fing-ever
• The Big-12? They are now having to absorb 4 new programs, after already absorbing 4(?) marginal programs last year. Sorry BYU, you suck too. Solution? Yeah let's shore that up by offering an olive branch to poorly thought of OSU and WSU? Uh-huh
• Looking forward into my Palantiri-like crystal ball, WSU is better positioned for some years-away consideration for P4 (actually not-so Power 2, B1G and SEC are out of this equation) offers as members of the already arguably strongest G5 conference. As opposed to the begging dogs that we are right now. Form the new Pac-12/14 NOW, with minimal exit penalties for all teams. Start kicking ass and position ourselves as the best the league has to offer. This is actually my finest insight yet. We cannot "be patient" and fritter away and/or potentially forego all of our money along the way. I guarantee, Joe Namath-like, that UNLV and SDSU will get offers before us if we F-around for 2 years, missing out on salvaging a couple of decent Bowl affiliations, NCAA BB monies, and better media deals than we have now
• In conclusion, are you all aware that WSU teams (charters) can now fly out of Pullman to any MW destination, and vice versa? To and from the East Coast? not too sure about that

Sincerely, your all-knowing, all-seeing, and incredibly humorous (which is lacking here) Loyal One.

[RSF]

On 6/1/2024 at 3:33 PM, Loyal Coug said:

 

Big-12 traitors get off pretty easy except Utah at UCF on a Friday.

That's Black Friday.  Thanksgiving weekend.

[Nevada Convert]

On 6/1/2024 at 9:04 AM, RSF said:

Stopped reading after that.

“Jon Wilner is a smart cookie and assessments correct in the main.”

Just be honest and admit that you stopped reading because it triggered your fat ass to go look for a cookie…..dumb, smart, average, whatever.

[Raz]

On 6/1/2024 at 3:41 PM, Loyal Coug said:

Wilner's prediction(s) are sort of a no-brainer, despite the delusions that WSU (and OSU?) may have.

For your reading pleasure and likely ridicule, something I posted on my home board yesterday. 176 views to date since yesterday, No replies:

Good but mostly uninformative interview(s). (Note - referring to an interview w/WSU's interim AD) A lot of hemming and hawing, including a reference to P-2 Commissioner Teresa Gould as a "well-seasoned pro suited for this unique role". Yeah, right. After her tutelage under Larry Scott and Quackkoff. Anne does mention a rebuilt Pac-12 as a possibility, along with "it's important that we be patient". Funny that Brand X asked about her correspondence (if any) with the Big-12 and ACC Commissioners but doesn't ask about conversations (if any) with my Twitter-confirmed admirer Gloria Navarez of the MW.

That missing, I guess yet another relatively short but prophetic rant is warranted from the Mighty Loyal One.

Ok:

• No one and I mean no one mentions WSU in what little chatter there is about further reconfiguration. OSU? Some but not much
• All reputable fingers point to the ACC implosion as being YEARS off, what with the sure to be drawn out legal BS with FSU, Clemson, etc. Our 2-year window will have sailed long before that, along with a shit ton of lost NCAA money, affiliation payments, and lack of new NCAA credits. And there are a host of backfill candidates that ARE mentioned, some of which are also present in our fantasy conference delusions
• Speaking of, the West Coast ACC "pod" is never mentioned anywhere, unless perhaps in some clickbait Twitter post (like Utah to the ACC). And why would the ACC seek to shore up CalFurd, two poorly watched programs that had to beg their way into the conference in the first place? By one vote. Oh let's help them out with some more poorly thought of or desired programs that have poor viewership? And increase our own travel costs when we could damn near carpool to other existing candidates' locations? What-fing-ever
• The Big-12? They are now having to absorb 4 new programs, after already absorbing 4(?) marginal programs last year. Sorry BYU, you suck too. Solution? Yeah let's shore that up by offering an olive branch to poorly thought of OSU and WSU? Uh-huh
• Looking forward into my Palantiri-like crystal ball, WSU is better positioned for some years-away consideration for P4 (actually not-so Power 2, B1G and SEC are out of this equation) offers as members of the already arguably strongest G5 conference. As opposed to the begging dogs that we are right now. Form the new Pac-12/14 NOW, with minimal exit penalties for all teams. Start kicking ass and position ourselves as the best the league has to offer. This is actually my finest insight yet. We cannot "be patient" and fritter away and/or potentially forego all of our money along the way. I guarantee, Joe Namath-like, that UNLV and SDSU will get offers before us if we F-around for 2 years, missing out on salvaging a couple of decent Bowl affiliations, NCAA BB monies, and better media deals than we have now
• In conclusion, are you all aware that WSU teams (charters) can now fly out of Pullman to any MW destination, and vice versa? To and from the East Coast? not too sure about that

Sincerely, your all-knowing, all-seeing, and incredibly humorous (which is lacking here) Loyal One.

What happened to OSU & WSU is downright cruel.  There is reassurance however.  Both schools are not alone and they and the others will figured out how to prosper and find/rebuild new conference homes.  The PAC will survive on its own.  It makes no sense for the PAC to die or merge with any second rate conference for short-term gain.  My crystal-clear 4K ball sees Stanford, Cal, OSU and WSU as bell-cow members of this reborn conference of champions.  

Good luck!

[smithy]

WSU and OSU and the MW as the nPac is a yes to me..Calfurd could die on the vine in the ACC, since they historically vetoes and mocks the three Cal State schools for years, especially Fresno State.  Oh how the tides have turned, the nPAC will have the last laugh, without the influence of Calfurd's arrogance. That academic snobbery destroyed the old PAC. Let Calfurd pay $$$ flying back East every week for all sports and not get a full share for years. At least they didn't sell their soul like SMU. 

[Beaver-Poke]

On 6/2/2024 at 5:53 AM, Raz said:

What happened to OSU & WSU is downright cruel.  There is reassurance however.  Both schools are not alone and they and the others will figured out how to prosper and find/rebuild new conference homes.  The PAC will survive on its own.  It makes no sense for the PAC to die or merge with any second rate conference for short-term gain.  My crystal-clear 4K ball sees Stanford, Cal, OSU and WSU as bell-cow members of this reborn conference of champions.  

Good luck!

The only realistic full-time, long-lasting merger ever considered is with the MWC. Partnering with the WCC is simply a temporary band aid.

Are you calling your own conference (and by extension, your school) second-rate? I certainly don't and see a Pac-2/MWC merger as the only way forward that makes any academic, competitive and financial sense. A regional conference of like-minded schools, with pretty similar athletic budgets. Just do it and move on so we're ready to go full-bore in 2026-27. 

Stanford is not coming back. Its ego is too massive, and it is rich enough to survive as an independent if it has too. Cal might come back, when it goes further into debt, even though there are a number of academic pinheads there who think they are too good for OSU/WSU/MWC.

[NorNevLifer]

On 6/2/2024 at 5:53 AM, Raz said:

What happened to OSU & WSU is downright cruel.  There is reassurance however.  Both schools are not alone and they and the others will figured out how to prosper and find/rebuild new conference homes.  The PAC will survive on its own.  It makes no sense for the PAC to die or merge with any second rate conference for short-term gain.  My crystal-clear 4K ball sees Stanford, Cal, OSU and WSU as bell-cow members of this reborn conference of champions.  

Good luck!

There has to be hard feelings between OSU/WSU and Calford. They already had the opportunity to do what you described, which would have made much more sense, and instead took an east coast P4 lifeline at a reduced payout rate and then were on board with their appointed Commissioner in trying to dissolve the PAC with the other departing schools. I don’t think it’s going to be water under the bridge for those parties.

[Raz]

On 6/2/2024 at 11:49 AM, Beaver-Poke said:

The only realistic full-time, long-lasting merger ever considered is with the MWC. Partnering with the WCC is simply a temporary band aid.

Are you calling your own conference (and by extension, your school) second-rate? I certainly don't and see a Pac-2/MWC merger as the only way forward that makes any academic, competitive and financial sense. A regional conference of like-minded schools, with pretty similar athletic budgets. Just do it and move on so we're ready to go full-bore in 2026-27. 

Stanford is not coming back. Its ego is too massive, and it is rich enough to survive as an independent if it has too. Cal might come back, when it goes further into debt, even though there are a number of academic pinheads there who think they are too good for OSU/WSU/MWC.

The MWC is a high-end second-rate conference.  Home to a handful of coveted schools which will bolt.  Just a matter of time.  At the top of the desirable list are UNLV and SDSU for their geographies served.  Especially the growing Las Vegas area.  A bit lower down but still desirable is Colorado State, for access to the Denver market.  The rest of the MWC markets are tertiary.  One might make a resonable argument the desirable list ought to include Utah State.  For me, no.

[Beaver-Poke]

"Second-rate" is pretty harsh. With the death of the Pac-12 it's the #5 athletic conference in country in the sports that matter (football, men's basketball). Excellent chance of a CFP berth in 2 of every 3 years. 

Not sure where SDSU and UNLV will "bolt" to, unless you think the Big 12 is going to expand even further and become even more unwieldly. I would expect most, if not all, of the Big 12 want anything to do with those schools. 

[Raz]

On 6/2/2024 at 2:04 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

"Second-rate" is pretty harsh. With the death of the Pac-12 it's the #5 athletic conference in country in the sports that matter (football, men's basketball). Excellent chance of a CFP berth in 2 of every 3 years. 

Not sure where SDSU and UNLV will "bolt" to, unless you think the Big 12 is going to expand even further and become even more unwieldly. I would expect most, if not all, of the Big 12 want anything to do with those schools. 

Not harsh at all but kind.  Consider this:  the MWC has New Mexico, San Jose, Nevada and Wyoming as members.  No one will ever confuse this rag-tag 3rd rate group with Notre Dame, Ohio State, USC or Alabama.  While I am a proud BSU Bronco alumnus, I am also a Foster School of Business MBA graduate.  I have tasted major college football in Seattle as well as the second-rate MWC. 

You should be proud of the great pumkin...Dee Andros.

[Loyal Coug]

On 6/2/2024 at 12:04 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

"Second-rate" is pretty harsh. With the death of the Pac-12 it's the #5 athletic conference in country in the sports that matter (football, men's basketball). Excellent chance of a CFP berth in 2 of every 3 years. 

Not sure where SDSU and UNLV will "bolt" to, unless you think the Big 12 is going to expand even further and become even more unwieldly. I would expect most, if not all, of the Big 12 want anything to do with those schools. 

Well the population bases certainly "look" attractive, but eyeball on TV's are dismal. But then in 2023 WSU had far more eyeballs on TV sets than traitors Stanford, Cal, UA and ASU. OSU did as well, plus more than UCLA and Utah. 

That said, I have preached ad nauseum to my delusion Coug brethren that if we sit on our hands for 2 years waiting for some fantasy realignment scenario, indeed SDSU and UNLV could be snatched up, making the MW way less desirable to reverse merge with. 

And no Stanford will never come "back" to a conference that includes some of your members. Fine with me.

Which college football programs were most-watched in 2023? | Run It Back With Zach (medium.com)

[Raz]

On 6/2/2024 at 2:54 PM, Loyal Coug said:

Well the population bases certainly "look" attractive, but eyeball on TV's are dismal. But then in 2023 WSU had far more eyeballs on TV sets than traitors Stanford, Cal, UA and ASU. OSU did as well, plus more than UCLA and Utah. 

That said, I have preached ad nauseum to my delusion Coug brethren that if we sit on our hands for 2 years waiting for some fantasy realignment scenario, indeed SDSU and UNLV could be snatched up, making the MW way less desirable to reverse merge with. 

And no Stanford will never come "back" to a conference that includes some of your members. Fine with me.

Which college football programs were most-watched in 2023? | Run It Back With Zach (medium.com)

but your school will "Coug it".