2024 General Election

[renoskier]

On 5/15/2024 at 1:26 PM, grandjean87 said:

Old Laurence didn't consult the actuarial tables before that post.  Trump may not make it to 2029 let alone through 2033.  Truth be told, I kind of check the news every morning.  

 

On 5/15/2024 at 1:39 PM, UNLV2001 said:

I tend to do the same 

not me...I take care of it before bed...

now I lay me down to sleep

I pray the lord my soul to keep

if Trump should die before I wake

I'll spend tomorrow getting baked! 

[grandjean87]

On 5/15/2024 at 6:02 PM, renoskier said:

 

not me...I take care of it before bed...

now I lay me down to sleep

I pray the lord my soul to keep

if Trump should die before I wake

I'll spend tomorrow getting baked! 

I'll join you. 

[grandjean87]

Anyone else free on Wednesdays?

[UNLV2001]

https://x.com/business/status/1793748251939684603

[azgreg]

If that's their concern there's no reason for them to be undecided.

 

[Spaztecs]

On 5/9/2024 at 3:45 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

Serious question: Don't colleges and universities have student health centers anymore? Or is "healthcare reform" a euphemism for reinstating the holding in Roe v Wade?

The State of Utah just closed all multi -cultural centers on public campuses. Student Health Centers are next. The coming RW Fascism is determined to end everything they consider "woke."

Contrary to @bornontheblue belief that not much will change. It won't in Idaho. It will change for anyone not considered Maga enough.

The crazy Maga shenanigans we laugh about now, will become common everyday occurrences in the quest to de- Liberalize Amerika 

[Spaztecs]

On 5/15/2024 at 6:02 PM, renoskier said:

 

not me...I take care of it before bed...

now I lay me down to sleep

I pray the lord my soul to keep

if Trump should die before I wake

I'll spend tomorrow getting baked! 

We all better learn that one.

Trump will win. This is like watching a slow motion train derailment. Nothing anyone can do about it. Even if he is imprisoned, dies, or becomes incapacitated. QAmerika will vote him in.

 

He has tapped into the anti-guv angst and frustration. Everytime something goes wrong with the Fed, the more voters look to him. He blocks the best Border Bill in decades, the Electorate gives him a pass.  No matter how horrific he is, anti-democratic, obviously fascist and deranged, no matter how many people who have served with him and spoken out about his incompetence, no matter the promises of revenge, retribution, and the jailing of those who speak against him ......

We are going to vote for the Orange Fascism we desire.

[UNLV2001]

On 5/23/2024 at 2:51 PM, Spaztecs said:

We all better learn that one.

Trump will win. This is like watching a slow motion train derailment. Nothing anyone can do about it. Even if he is imprisoned, dies, or becomes incapacitated. QAmerika will vote him in.

 

He has tapped into the anti-guv angst and frustration. Everytime something goes wrong with the Fed, the more voters look to him. He blocks the best Border Bill in decades, the Electorate gives him a pass.  No matter how horrific he is, anti-democratic, obviously fascist and deranged, no matter how many people who have served with him and spoken out about his incompetence, no matter the promises of revenge, retribution, and the jailing of those who speak against him ......

We are going to vote for the Orange Fascism we desire.

Sadly that could very well be the case -- The LOSS's cult plus the uninformed oblivious voters = a win for the LOSS 

From 1/6/25 on, the big question is how far will the LOSS go with the backing of his cult, nazis & christian nationalists 

He's got the SCOTUS almost locked up now -- A couple more appointments & the SCOTUS is gone for decades and they could overturn any lower court rulings

[CPslograd]

It seems like Trump is going to win.

If inflation and gas prices stay high, its hard to see Buden pulling this out.

[Spaztecs]

On 5/23/2024 at 9:46 PM, CPslograd said:

It seems like Trump is going to win.

If inflation and gas prices stay high, its hard to see Buden pulling this out.

 

It wouldn't surprise me.if Corporate America was purposely raising prices to get Trump elected.

Trump is pro corporate fascism and pro Trumps permament power and wealth.. He will be the most maleable and corrupt Prez since US Grant.

[robe]

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/05/massive-shift-in-odds-favorite-winner-of-trump-biden-rematch.html

Trump slips in the polls but makes a massive gain in odds of winning. Not sure how that is measured. Maybe leading by Memorial Day is an indicator. Trump has a 17 point advantage and closing in on a 60% chance to win. It looks like 4 more years of Trump is a high possibility now. 

[grandjean87]

I'd hold off on the we're doomed or fvck yes stuff.  It's still springtime.  Trump has a low ceiling.  Dobbs and various states' recent laws following will have import. I expect a brutal negative ad campaign against Trump.   From @Nate_Cohn writing in The Morning. 

"President Biden has actually led the last three New York Times/Siena national polls among those who voted in the 2020 election, even as he has trailed among registered voters overall. And looking back over the last few years, almost all of Trump’s gains came from these less engaged voters."  See graphic below.

It's going to be turnout and who makes up the new voter churn.  If not for lingering/persistent inflation, the border, and Gaza, Biden would waltz to an easy victory.  Trump has high unfavorables creating that low ceiling. He can't change either of those. Biden's in the same boat, but he's got time to change perceptions on critical matters. He doesn't need much movement nor that many Democrat-leaning voters to come home and show up. 

Way, way too early to predict. 

[toonkee]

'member how Clinton was really far ahead in the polls and but we had had shy Trump voters?  I could see Biden outperforming the polls based on this same phenomenon however the Kennedy factor looms.  

 

 

[Motown Monty]

if Trump is found "not guilty" this upcoming week, I think this will be terrible news for Biden

Trump will go around shouting that it was a political trial and not justified

not sure what to expect

[Motown Monty]

On 5/23/2024 at 8:46 PM, CPslograd said:

It seems like Trump is going to win.

If inflation and gas prices stay high, its hard to see Buden pulling this out.

i think the following is killing Biden with working class voters

(1) inflation --- they can't afford stuff

(2) they are angry about the wars in Russia and Israel, when there is money to pay for the wars, but not to help their community

(3) immigration - the Republicans starting busing migrants to the east coast cities

(4) gas prices.   Biden could try to control it but if it goes up any higher this is bad

[Motown Monty]

On 5/24/2024 at 8:41 AM, toonkee said:

'member how Clinton was really far ahead in the polls and but we had had shy Trump voters?  I could see Biden outperforming the polls based on this same phenomenon however the Kennedy factor looms.  

 

 

is it clear if Kennedy would steal votes from Biden or Trump?

Also why is Kennedy not doing the debate?   I thought there is a rule that you have to poll a certain level to be invited

[grandjean87]

On 5/24/2024 at 9:41 AM, toonkee said:

'member how Clinton was really far ahead in the polls and but we had had shy Trump voters?  I could see Biden outperforming the polls based on this same phenomenon however the Kennedy factor looms.  

 

 

I've seen a lot stuff on polling, breakouts, media consumption, etc. recently.  Distilling it (today) goes like this. 

RFK, Jr. has lost some polling numbers.  Bloomberg has a morning article. I'm feeling more like he's not going to be a huge factor, but he could still matter like 2000.  About a month back the Trump campaign went after him signaling their fears he could draw more from (Trump) than Biden. I saw polling indicating, but also like Trump voters RFK2's get much of their info from social media and select sites.  I'll go out on a short limb and say Bobby, Jr. hurts Trump more in November at the margin. No clue if the margin matters. 

Another factor is that perhaps a bigger than thought swath of voters are still persuadable.  I've seen as high as 1/4 to 1/3rd, but the larger part of that are those who have decided, but might switch (not wholly undecided). I saw polling the other day where Trump voters are the most locked in, Biden less so, but still fairly tight, and RFK2 with a much larger share of voters indicating they could switch by election.  Following from the end of the previous paragraph, this is a + for Trump. 

I still think it is Biden's election to lose, but I don't put it past him. I still recall his former staffer in The Unwinding (2015) remarking to the effect, never underestimate Joe Biden's ability to disappoint.  He's already done that w/the border.  He could step on his dick on enough things before the election to lose especially given the 6 or 7 or 9 or whatever handful of states swing the EC. 
 

 

[Spaztecs]

On 5/24/2024 at 10:24 AM, Motown Monty said:

if Trump is found "not guilty" this upcoming week, I think this will be terrible news for Biden

Trump will go around shouting that it was a political trial and not justified

not sure what to expect

Trumps going to win.

This has been coming since Obamas Election. The full on white, RW, neo-Christian State, has been rolling along like a locomotive and is picking up steam. The Electorate literally wants to break the system and hand it over to Trump. Despite not knowing what that means.

[grandjean87]

[azgreg]

On 5/24/2024 at 8:41 AM, toonkee said:

I could see Biden outperforming the polls

Democrats have been outperforming the polls by a wide margin for the last couple of years now.