It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s a…BALLOON! And an OCTAGON!!!

[SDSUfan]

I was put into a position by my predecessor of having to do an architecture for and proposing a balloon based system . Learned more than I cared to about the subject. This is a nothing burger.

Balloons are terrible platforms. Anyone can fill a balloon and let it catch the currents.  You should worry when they can navigate it to a spot and keep it there.  THAT is the hardest trick to do with a balloon.  Nobody has mastered it in the nearly 250 years that balloons have been around.

You  can't really steer a balloon. "Steering" involves navigating to a current headed in roughly the same direction you want to go. Course correction requires either climbing or descending into another current. Climbing involves the shedding of ballast. Descending requires venting of gas. In both instances, you must shed a critical resource, ballast and gas, that you can't get back so you can only course correct a few times.

Putting a sensitive payload on a balloon is the height of stupidity.  They're easily spotted and brought down so you are basically gifting intel to your adversary.

BTW, you don't want to be in the jet stream.  That wind band, between 25 and 45k feet is really cold, -55C. Electronics and especially batteries do not function well at those temperatures. Winds are more moderate and predictable at 65-75k' and the atmospheric temperature is around -20 to -30C.  Much more forgiving.

[SAMO]

[Nevada Convert]

Only on the MWC Board are the most basic facts of life questioned. 

Here’s a study stating 32% of people hit by bullets coming straight down or nearly straight down at a variable terminal velocity. Terminal velocity varies widely, objects don’t fall in a vacuum. A lead bullet has less air friction than other materials. 

At 200 fps, a bullet can penetrate the skull, and at 300 fps it will. Some bullets fired at a mild angle hit the ground at 600 fps. Lots of little kids die. A .30 caliber bullet will break your skin at 85 fps. 
 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5912041/

 

[Billings]

https://www.theifod.com/what-happens-to-a-bullet-shot-straight-up-in-the-air/

 

" So, actual cases of injury or death might only be reflective of bullets fired at an angle other than 90 degrees to horizontal."

[Nevada Convert]

On 2/4/2023 at 11:22 PM, Billings said:

https://www.theifod.com/what-happens-to-a-bullet-shot-straight-up-in-the-air/

 

" So, actual cases of injury or death might only be reflective of bullets fired at an angle other than 90 degrees to horizontal."

No one fires a bullet perfectly at 90 degrees. 

[TGIFaanes]

They said on Fox that this ballon shot down was the first official kill of a F-22…

[sactowndog]

On 2/4/2023 at 10:59 AM, retrofade said:

I have a feeling that they’re just waiting until it gets out over water and then it’ll be shot down. 

Which actually is quite smart as it maximizes our ability to recover it and study it.  Ideally we would have shot it down over the Pacific but likely correct we didn’t want to jeopardize the trip.  

[GoDogs22]

On 2/5/2023 at 9:06 AM, TGIFaanes said:

They said on Fox that this ballon shot down was the first official kill of a F-22…

 

Makes sense. They were never used in combat, and have been all but retired without seeing action.

[thelawlorfaithful]

On 2/4/2023 at 8:12 PM, grandjean87 said:

Apparently, perhaps, not even close to the first time.  (Edit -- like I said not news to intelligence.)

Seeing a number of recent posts indicating that the Pentagon confirmed during the prior administration a number (3?) of China balloons crossed US air space.  Stay tuned.

"The official said Chinese balloons briefly transited the continental United States at least three times during the prior administration."

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3288543/f-22-safely-shoots-down-chinese-spy-balloon-off-south-carolina-coast/

 

On 2/4/2023 at 8:26 PM, RSF said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/02/04/yes-chinese-spy-balloons-flew-over-the-us-when-president-trump-was-in-office-too/

The follow up reporting will surely be vigorous and not just a parroting of administrative talking points to be echoed without question.

[RSF]

Sigh...

[grandjean87]

On 2/5/2023 at 11:45 AM, thelawlorfaithful said:

 

The follow up reporting will surely be vigorous and not just a parroting of administrative talking points to be echoed without question.

Hence my inclusion of "perhaps". 

I caught a few minutes of Sen. Rubio w/Tapper  this morning.  The upshot from it was, this wasn't new.  Not the first balloons and going back to the Trump era. I'm seeing this elsewhere along w/Fox News interviews denying to the contrary.  

Anyway, I suspect the Chinese have been spying on us w/now hundreds of military satellites.  I am still unsure as to the purpose/use of balloons, but I've seen a little bit of logical explanation on it.  Time will provide more insight.  

[grandjean87]

On 2/5/2023 at 12:34 AM, Nevada Convert said:

No one fires a bullet perfectly at 90 degrees. 

Say you've never had a wallbanger. 

[azgreg]

On 2/5/2023 at 10:08 AM, sactowndog said:

Which actually is quite smart as it maximizes our ability to recover it and study it.  Ideally we would have shot it down over the Pacific but likely correct we didn’t want to jeopardize the trip.  

The balloon crossed into American air space from Canada.

 

[Billings]

On 2/5/2023 at 12:03 PM, azgreg said:

The balloon crossed into American air space from Canada.

 

That was my first take as well.  After reading more it seems it did flyover part of Alaska and the Aleutian islands.

[thelawlorfaithful]

On 2/5/2023 at 10:51 AM, grandjean87 said:

Hence my inclusion of "perhaps". 

I caught a few minutes of Sen. Rubio w/Tapper  this morning.  The upshot from it was, this wasn't new.  Not the first balloons and going back to the Trump era. I'm seeing this elsewhere along w/Fox News interviews denying to the contrary.  

Anyway, I suspect the Chinese have been spying on us w/now hundreds of military satellites.  I am still unsure as to the purpose/use of balloons, but I've seen a little bit of logical explanation on it.  Time will provide more insight.  

I didn’t say it was your job to verify. I lived through the Trump years. All the best people did not have the tightest lips. If China was invading our airspace I wonder why we never heard about it. Just like people should wonder if we’d have heard about this one without a local newspaper doing some reporting.

[SAMO]

On 2/5/2023 at 10:59 AM, grandjean87 said:

Say you've never had a wallbanger. 

Harvey is an old friend of mine…lol

[AztecAlien]

With tensions running high between the two countries I'm just curious what China's response would have been if the U.S. "accidentally" had one our civilian information balloons floating across their airspace. There is a lot of speculation going on. Again, the country is divided. It does seem like China was testing the water to see how far they could push things. There is not a lot of information so I don't think any of us know what actually happened. 

[grandjean87]

On 2/5/2023 at 1:19 PM, SAMO said:

Harvey is an old friend of mine…lol

The '70s were awesome.  

[grandjean87]

On 2/5/2023 at 1:18 PM, thelawlorfaithful said:

I didn’t say it was your job to verify. I lived through the Trump years. All the best people did not have the tightest lips. If China was invading our airspace I wonder why we never heard about it. Just like people should wonder if we’d have heard about this one without a local newspaper doing some reporting.

Or, heard about the jackbooted raid on M-a-L w/o local reporting?  (we would have)

I'm pretty agnostic on most of this. My post which you quoted was in response to a definitive statement that this balloon was a big deal being the first time since Pearl Harbor a hostile government invaded our air space.  That's pretty much in question to say the least. 

I would agree it's a bit odd that rumors or info from the past never surfaced during 45's Admin.  It's also still odd to me that China would use a high altitude balloon to spy in the first place, but the list of things we don't know about nor I understand is a long one. 

[renoskier]

On 2/5/2023 at 12:19 PM, SAMO said:

Harvey is an old friend of mine…lol

 

On 2/5/2023 at 12:46 PM, grandjean87 said:

The '70s were awesome.  

every bar had a tall bottle of Galliano...

I haven't noticed one of those in a long time.