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Fresno to the P5?

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BYU isnt going to the P12. They are a much better fit in B12 anyways.

"Make like a tree and scram" - Rosegreen

 

Your administration is the reason why our basketball league is bleeding out currently. If you didn't insist on San Jose being in the MWC, so you guys would have someone that votes similar to SDSU, every team in the MWC wouldn't have to play 2 games vs. a team with a 330 RPI ranking EVERY season.

You guys are as stupid as you are desperate.   - Cowboy Junky

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On 1/10/2023 at 11:55 AM, AztecSU said:

B12 still hasn't signed a GOR. If the PAC can get the PNW schools to sign a long enough GOR I think they have a chance to convince BYU to join. If that happens BSU or FSU to B12 becomes far more likely. 

GOR has nothing to do with the Big12 exit fee and BYU would be subject to some kind of exit fee at this point in the process.  But the real question is, why would BYU be even remotely interested in joining the Pac?  The Big12 already has an extension worked out with ESPN and Fox, the Pac's media is still up in the air and looking like they could have a lot of streaming (which I doubt BYU would be to excited about).  Big12 is projecting a $50 million distribution per school in 2025 with out the Texas or Oklahoma in the conference, the Pac is still a lot of ???? for distributions with UCLA and USC gone.  I doubt BYU gets any or much of Texas or Oklahoma exit fees, but the Big12 is going to get a lot of money from Texas or Oklahoma in exit fees, the Pac had no exit fees for UCLA and USC exit from the Pac. 

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On 1/10/2023 at 4:31 PM, e-zone99 said:

GOR has nothing to do with the Big12 exit fee and BYU would be subject to some kind of exit fee at this point in the process.  But the real question is, why would BYU be even remotely interested in joining the Pac?  The Big12 already has an extension worked out with ESPN and Fox, the Pac's media is still up in the air and looking like they could have a lot of streaming (which I doubt BYU would be to excited about).  Big12 is projecting a $50 million distribution per school in 2025 with out the Texas or Oklahoma in the conference, the Pac is still a lot of ???? for distributions with UCLA and USC gone.  I doubt BYU gets any or much of Texas or Oklahoma exit fees, but the Big12 is going to get a lot of money from Texas or Oklahoma in exit fees, the Pac had no exit fees for UCLA and USC exit from the Pac. 

No GOR means it’s not a done deal yet. To be clear the B12 media deal is $32m, the rest is from tourney credits and CFP money. What exactly would that exit fee be?

The PAC could be desperate rn and if BYU was offered do we really think they would say no? Really? Play with the Utes in the PAC for similar money as b12? 10 year GOR.

Yes, this is all very unlikely. But the calculus says that is probably the PACs last and only gambit for a splashy expansion that has a >/= 1% probability of happening.

 

 

 

 

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On 1/10/2023 at 8:47 PM, AztecSU said:

No GOR means it’s not a done deal yet. To be clear the B12 media deal is $32m, the rest is from tourney credits and CFP money. What exactly would that exit fee be?

The PAC could be desperate rn and if BYU was offered do we really think they would say no? Really? Play with the Utes in the PAC for similar money as b12? 10 year GOR.

Yes, this is all very unlikely. But the calculus says that is probably the PACs last and only gambit for a splashy expansion that has a >/= 1% probability of happening.

The exit fee is in the bylaws.  2 years worth of distributions.  Separate from GOR.  Which is OUT will be writing big checks even if they wait until 2025.

 

And the schools have agreed to the GOR.  Signing it is a formality.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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^^^^ there you are.  I am surprised that there is not a current topic on the math of last night in LA.

The square root of Georgia's score is higher than what TCU managed to do at SoFi.  Highly embarrassing and dreadful.  Back to equestrian titles for TCU....bankable since equestrian is an actual thing to do in college sports.  

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On 1/10/2023 at 7:04 PM, RSF said:

The exit fee is in the bylaws.  2 years worth of distributions.  Separate from GOR.  Which is OUT will be writing big checks even if they wait until 2025.

 

And the schools have agreed to the GOR.  Signing it is a formality.

Got it. So if the PAC wanted to try they are paying $64m out the gate + a laundry list of concessions BYU would request(incl. no Sundays). Unlikely in the extreme but at least we know the minimum number needed. 
 

This is not to be taken seriously, which I see you understand. But even as a diehard Aztec fan our addition will not be exciting for anyone but our fans and that’s at least a little troublesome for me. Same for SMU. I’m gaming out the PAC’s hail Mary’s. 

 

 

 

 

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On 1/10/2023 at 8:27 PM, AztecSU said:

Got it. So if the PAC wanted to try they are paying $64m out the gate + a laundry list of concessions BYU would request(incl. no Sundays). Unlikely in the extreme but at least we know the minimum number needed. 
 

This is not to be taken seriously, which I see you understand. But even as a diehard Aztec fan our addition will not be exciting for anyone but our fans and that’s at least a little troublesome for me. Same for SMU. I’m gaming out the PAC’s hail Mary’s. 

It's 2 years worth of distributions, not 2 years worth of the media deal.  The Big12 paid out $42 million per in distribution last year and I believe $40 million the year before that.  So if you used those 2 years the Texas and Oklahoma exit fees alone would be $82 million each not counting any GOR fees if they leave before 2025.  Chances are the Big12 will continue to have increased distributions...  Because their media rights deal is back loaded, NCAA credit increases (back to back National Champions; Baylor and Kansas and could have all 10 members make the NCAA tournament this year), playoff money from TCU making the title game, and ect...

BYU is very excited about joining the Big12, heck their newly hired DC is reported to be making over $1 million a year (they replaced 4 of their 5 defense coaches since the end of the regular season).

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On 1/11/2023 at 1:00 AM, e-zone99 said:

It's 2 years worth of distributions, not 2 years worth of the media deal.  The Big12 paid out $42 million per in distribution last year and I believe $40 million the year before that.  So if you used those 2 years the Texas and Oklahoma exit fees alone would be $82 million each not counting any GOR fees if they leave before 2025.  Chances are the Big12 will continue to have increased distributions...  Because their media rights deal is back loaded, NCAA credit increases (back to back National Champions; Baylor and Kansas and could have all 10 members make the NCAA tournament this year), playoff money from TCU making the title game, and ect...

BYU is very excited about joining the Big12, heck their newly hired DC is reported to be making over $1 million a year (they replaced 4 of their 5 defense coaches since the end of the regular season).

 You should probably read the 2nd half of the post before this^one. My reply to RSF.

 

 

 

 

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On 1/11/2023 at 2:00 AM, e-zone99 said:

It's 2 years worth of distributions, not 2 years worth of the media deal.  The Big12 paid out $42 million per in distribution last year and I believe $40 million the year before that.  So if you used those 2 years the Texas and Oklahoma exit fees alone would be $82 million each not counting any GOR fees if they leave before 2025.  Chances are the Big12 will continue to have increased distributions...  Because their media rights deal is back loaded, NCAA credit increases (back to back National Champions; Baylor and Kansas and could have all 10 members make the NCAA tournament this year), playoff money from TCU making the title game, and ect...

BYU is very excited about joining the Big12, heck their newly hired DC is reported to be making over $1 million a year (they replaced 4 of their 5 defense coaches since the end of the regular season).

It was because of the New12 money that BYU was able to step up the pay of their DC. Which, btw, is more than many MW Head Coaches make.

Adding Jay Hill as DC is a huuuge win for BYU stepping up in class. The dude can recrooooooot and Coach 'em up.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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On 1/10/2023 at 7:47 PM, AztecSU said:

No GOR means it’s not a done deal yet. To be clear the B12 media deal is $32m, the rest is from tourney credits and CFP money. What exactly would that exit fee be?

The PAC could be desperate rn and if BYU was offered do we really think they would say no? Really? Play with the Utes in the PAC for similar money as b12? 10 year GOR.

Yes, this is all very unlikely. But the calculus says that is probably the PACs last and only gambit for a splashy expansion that has a >/= 1% probability of happening.

Yes they would say NO!  Even if the Pac was able offer more money, the fit is way better in the Big12 (would not have deal the things like the Stanford band pulled this season) and the Big12 is not looking at a stream only heavy media deal either.  With USC and UCLA moving to the BIG took all of the shine off the Pac for BYU even with Utah in the Pac.

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On 1/11/2023 at 10:07 AM, TCU Robert said:

San Diego State sounds like a lock. 

Not sure why they don't just immediately add San Diego State, and then wait to see who they should add for no. 12.

I think no. 12 is probably between SMU and UNLV.  But admittedly, I'm not sure how strong of a candidate Fresno State is and what their fan support is like these days.

 

Why ?

Their is a minimal tv value increase for adding them. And I mean minimal, maybe $100 - $200k increase per School, per year.

In terms of Recruiting, the 4* and 5* San Diego kids already take the PAC offers over the MW, everytime.Why have to compete with SDSU for these recruits ?

The PAC TV numbers in San Diego are U$CLA viewers. They will keep on watching U$CLA in the B1G. Very few are watching the late night Wazzu-Arizona game on FS1.

The only benefit to an SDSU add is cutting the loss of ~5.7 mil LA TV views by ~1.1 mil SD viewers.

 

I have been a hardcore Aztec fan my whole life and despite my wanting them to be in the PAC, the cold-hard facts say otherwise.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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On 1/11/2023 at 10:58 AM, e-zone99 said:

Yes they would say NO!  Even if the Pac was able offer more money, the fit is way better in the Big12 (would not have deal the things like the Stanford band pulled this season) and the Big12 is not looking at a stream only heavy media deal either.  With USC and UCLA moving to the BIG took all of the shine off the Pac for BYU even with Utah in the Pac.

Hmm, isn't ESPN+ a streaming platform with only 25m subscribers? And why are you acting like the PAC won't have a deal with CBS(Extremely likely) as well as ESPN? I agree that BYU would likely say no, but I don't think it's 100% and I also think this is the time when the PAC would be most willing to consider their addition. 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 1/11/2023 at 12:05 PM, AztecSU said:

Hmm, isn't ESPN+ a streaming platform with only 25m subscribers? And why are you acting like the PAC won't have a deal with CBS(Extremely likely) as well as ESPN? I agree that BYU would likely say no, but I don't think it's 100% and I also think this is the time when the PAC would be most willing to consider their addition. 

 

Which increases buys of the ESPN+ App for fans of Teams who will likely have most of their content in that platform.

Hello, Morgantown, Manhattan, and Lubbock.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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On 1/11/2023 at 11:54 AM, Spaztecs said:

It was because of the New12 money that BYU was able to step up the pay of their DC. Which, btw, is more than many MW Head Coaches make.

Adding Jay Hill as DC is a huuuge win for BYU stepping up in class. The dude can recrooooooot and Coach 'em up.

I believe so, since the Big12 announcement BYU has been changing a lot of things that needed done a long time ago, like adding a lot more support staff positions (it always drove me nuts that Boise St and Utah St had a larger support staff than BYU).  They are not SEC size yet, but getting close to what most are in the Big12.  I've read that Hill will make $1.1 million and last I had heard Tuiaki was getting +400K.  It sounds like BYU assistants coaches will be getting large pay raises, the word is BYU's new DL coach (Sione Po'uha) will make the same type of money as he was making at Utah.  BYU has finally committed to paying a competitive P5 salaries to their coaches, it's not like the didn't have a very large endowment for coaches salaries that was started many, many years ago.  They also let the whole S&C staff go at the end of the season, the team has had way to many injuries the last 2 years (the other seasons have been bad, but these last 2 seasons have been awful; very few starters were able to start all 13 games, in 2022 BYU had 3 players start all 13 games).

 

 

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On 1/11/2023 at 12:15 PM, TCU Robert said:

They need content for their TV partners. 

The PAC already has 10 Schools that can fill the evening broadcast slots. I doubt the networks see value in SDSU. If, they did see value, we wouldn't be hearing rumors of lack of interest and weak assed tv numbers for a PAC TV deal.

If no Major Network signs a deal with the PAC, it will not hurt them. It's not hard to put Central Time Zone teams or BYU into 9pm eastern kick slots.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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On 1/11/2023 at 12:05 PM, AztecSU said:

Hmm, isn't ESPN+ a streaming platform with only 25m subscribers? And why are you acting like the PAC won't have a deal with CBS(Extremely likely) as well as ESPN? I agree that BYU would likely say no, but I don't think it's 100% and I also think this is the time when the PAC would be most willing to consider their addition. 

 

ESPN+ is only for Big12 3rd rights, 1st and 2nd will be on ABC, ESPNs, and Fox.  The Pac could have some 1st, 2nd, and all of 3rd on Prime.

 

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On 1/11/2023 at 11:04 AM, Spaztecs said:

Why ?

Their is a minimal tv value increase for adding them. And I mean minimal, maybe $100 - $200k increase per School, per year.

In terms of Recruiting, the 4* and 5* San Diego kids already take the PAC offers over the MW, everytime.Why have to compete with SDSU for these recruits ?

The PAC TV numbers in San Diego are U$CLA viewers. They will keep on watching U$CLA in the B1G. Very few are watching the late night Wazzu-Arizona game on FS1.

The only benefit to an SDSU add is cutting the loss of ~5.7 mil LA TV views by ~1.1 mil SD viewers.

 

I have been a hardcore Aztec fan my whole life and despite my wanting them to be in the PAC, the cold-hard facts say otherwise.

Via USC/UCLA, the San Diego market is included in their DMA. The PAC loses that when they leave.

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On 1/11/2023 at 12:05 PM, AztecSU said:

Hmm, isn't ESPN+ a streaming platform with only 25m subscribers? And why are you acting like the PAC won't have a deal with CBS(Extremely likely) as well as ESPN? I agree that BYU would likely say no, but I don't think it's 100% and I also think this is the time when the PAC would be most willing to consider their addition. 

 

I have not heard one word of the Pac being extremely likely of being on CBS, you got a link?

 

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Back to the OP,  IMO Fresnos best shot at the P5 is the New12 with the next TV Deal   They bring value as a Pacific Time Zone team with a decent following.

 

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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On 1/11/2023 at 12:44 PM, Aztec1984 said:

Via USC/UCLA, the San Diego market is included in their DMA. The PAC loses that when they leave.

Like I said, the only value SDSU brings to a new PAC TV deal is the mitigation of the potential 1.1 SD TV's who might watch Aztec FB.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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