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About Bruininthebay

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  1. I think that as 2024-25 nears there may be reason to speculate about conference changes involving the Big 12. The one domino that would set everything off is if Kansas goes to the Big Ten along with Missouri. If the SEC 12 loses Missouri, I think West Virginia would be the choice to replace the Tigers because the vacancy would be in the SEC East rather than the SEC West. Kansas is a national basketball brand and the Big Ten network would upgrade it's content significantly by including the Jayhawks. Missouri choosing the Big Ten over the SEC would say something about which conference is #1 and which is #2 in FBS. In the event of this unlikely scenario, I think either Texas and Oklahoma might go the SEC but they could also stand pat and expand the Big 12. In the unlikely event that Arizona State is invited by the Big 12 and accepts that invite, San Diego State would be the ideal partner. If BYU is invited, most speculate Colorado State would as well so that the conference has a presence in the Colorado market. I'm not sure if the Big 12 takes ten or 12, but I don't think they go to 12 without a Pac 12 defector. I've speculated before that Washington State and Oregon State might need a new conference if the rest of the Pac 12 decide they aren't going to be able to have the resources to compete with the SEC and Big Ten dividing their media rights 'pie' by 12 and that 9 or 10 is preferable. Especially if ASU leaves for the Big 12, the remaining Pac 12 schools can do a PCC 2.0 by dissolving the conference and then form a new conference of the AAU schools (Pac 9). The one school that this conference would want is Hawaii because it is the one institution most likely to 'pull a Utah'. Wazzou has an over $100 million in structural debt from the athletic department affecting the overall budget situation of the university, now that university is exhibit A of an institution squandering money on it's athletic program. Oregon State's athletic department is also running a deficit that is having to be supported by the rest of the institution. Neither are AAU schools either. However, both schools would be great additions to the Mountain West if San Diego State and Colorado State joined the Big 12 along with BYU and Arizona State. Finally, UTEP would likely replace Hawaii because it would give the conference another institution with a stadium hosting a bowl game.
  2. I don't think that half an hour really makes a difference unless you care about watching the opening kickoff. I don't agree that the concerns about start times really affected the price because overall this is a tripling in value for basically the same agreement. If the Pac 12 focuses on over the air media rights for football in our next agreement because we can offer four different packages for each of the major networks then the Mountain West would be more important to ESPN overall because ESPN needs Window 4 content and won't have a lot of Pac 12 games, especially on Friday night. If ESPN is motivated and Fox is willing to compete, the Mountain West could see a similar doubling to tripling in value in 2026. Fox is particularly interested in having people who watch Fox News and Fox Business watch Fox Sports and the Mountain West media geography probably has relatively more viewers who watch Fox's other networks than in the markets where the Pac 12 is the local university so Fox would likely want to resist Disney swooping up the Mountain West to replace the Pac 12 on ESPN. Two motivated bidders is a good way to drive up the price of a relatively unique product, especially when those bidders have the deepest pockets
  3. I've seen the same thing repeated. It's actually a misquote of his more equivocal statement "It arguably could be the last contract we will negotiate Boise State separately." https://www.ktvb.com/article/sports/ncaa/ncaaf/boise-state-football/how-the-new-mountain-west-tv-deal-affects-boise-state-and-possible-conference-realignment/277-8dec7ab9-feff-4a87-bee5-214dac93b8ee Boise State had a deal in principle with ESPN before seeking to rejoin the MW so it was reasonable at that time to honor. The upcoming agreement is the first negotiations the MW held with Boise State from beginning to end and it's possible the separation of Boise from everyone else caused ESPN to exit negotiations soon after Fox outbid ESPN for Boise home games. Thompson's quote would make sense if Boise feels they could have got more out of Disney by not selling their package separately. If Boise State isn't separate, Fox, CBS and ESPN have to bid directly against each other to become the primary rights holder if they want to broadcast Boise State home games and that causes the rest of the conference's games to be valued at the same price as Boise State home games rather than at a lower price relative to BSU home games. The conference would need to change the bylaws relating to Boise State through a separate, internal process. The conference already amended the provisions for Boise State to limit them to $1.8 million from the initial agreement which was even more advantageous. I presume this is because the relation between the schools becomes more multifaceted over time so Boise State is agreeable as they see value in being treated equally by the other institutions in the Mountain West overall.
  4. The Mountain West and the AAC both demonstrated they are FBS conferences with values that increased. Both increased by a significant multiple so that each school can legitimately say they get revenue from broadcasts. The MAC, CUSA and Sun Belt are the FBS conferences where it is legitimate to question whether the institutions wouldn't be better off as FCS schools with lower costs because the revenue for media rights isn't significant while the costs are going up from full cost of attendance scholarships, etc. The exposure not being equal to the AAC deal is not clear cut. Focusing solely on the length of the contract obscures that the Mountain West has significant exposure on over the air football broadcasts on Fox and CBS while the AAC is only on ABC. ESPN is certainly the premier cable sports network but FS1 is a respectable alternative; some Boise fans are apprehensive about no longer being on ESPN because that network really allowed the school to rise to prominence. I think that what tips the scales in favor of the MW deal is that the NFL broadcasts on Fox and CBS include promos for college football during the season and the Mountain West would be included in those promotion spots while ABC doesn't have an NFL broadcast package to do something similar. Finally, viewers in the western US are fine with watching their media on alternative networks to ESPN. Sportscenter focuses on the eastern and central time zones due to the population being 70% in those time zones so tuning to Fox to get Pac 12 and Mountain West games is no big deal, especially if it has more focus on teams fans care about in our part of the country.
  5. So this is the new TedfordTrain account? Welcome back. I don't know what you are referring to about my feelings but rest assured I have no personal stake in the Mountain West's success or failure in media negotiations. I hope that that some of this increased media revenue will help SJSU get their football ops building built on time. Whether that 'ignites' SJSU I have no idea - having visitor locker rooms nice enough for Stanford to use so we can get the Bill Walsh Classic back is about the extent of my interest. ESPN and the Mountain West aren't breaking up because ESPN is in the Bowl game business. The current bowl agreements are set to expire the same year that the conference's media right expire. ESPN holds bowl games in the stadia of Hawai'i, New Mexico and Boise State. These bowl games get decent ratings for ESPN given the payout for the game and the bowl games are usually among the highest rated broadcasts featuring Mountain West teams in any given year so ESPN is probably happy.
  6. the tilde (~) means estimate so you are totally correct to say that isn't an exact number. Importantly, the money from Fox and CBS doesn't include bowl game revenues from ESPN or any 'third tier' media partner like Stadium or a regional sports network like Nevada Sports Net or Prime Ticket. I'm curious if Fox takes the SEC Game of the Week from CBS. CBS knows they can't win a bidding war against Fox or Disney. In 2024-25 I anticipate the Pac 12 will sell more than the current two media packages with Fox and ESPN. NBC and CBS could both broadcast a weekly Pac 12 football game during the season, although it's possible Fox might be less interested in renewing the current Pac 12 deal if they have the Boise State home game package.
  7. The major downside of CBS Sports is that it isn't available through Sling TV. Aside from the fall football season, I subscribe to Sling Blue and Fox Sports is on that already. Ideally Sling adds CBS Sports to the same 'sports extra' package that the Pac 12 Network is on.
  8. ESPN and the Mountain West will still have bowl game agreements. No FBS conference has more bowl games at member owned stadiums than the MW. I would expect ESPN to sublicense games from CBS like they have in the past as well.
  9. I think that the media rumors being explicitly denied by saying ‘those aren’t the terms and the deal isn’t done’ implies that a deal is being discussed. A scenario where discussions are between ESPN and a combo of Fox/CBS is plausible and probably the most likely based on what we know. Dennis Dodd works for CBS so he could easily get informed internally and is probably the only credible reporter with good info on the MW talks in a very long time. I believe fox sports wants to build viewership in markets where fox gets proportionately higher ratings and I presume the mountain west markets are relatively better for them than the pacific 12 markets west of the Mississippi I presume Fox will be willing to bid against ESPN for Boise’s rights as well. I would also guess that the long delay in the BYU announcement has something to do with discussions with Fox Sports. ESPN can easily top a $3 million dollar deal. As much as Thompson gets criticized, he did his job if he got two or more major parties to make serious bids against each other. I doubt Fox and CBS will exceed what the AAC agreed to with ESPN but I could see fox and cbs being prepared to get close to that number
  10. Here is the current announced list of the thirteen FBS bowl games ESPN events owns https://espnevents.com/press/event/espn-events-reveals-2019-20-bowl-season-slate/ Note that the Las Vegas and Hawaii Bowls are the best games on the list. I don't know if the new Los Angeles bowl will be ESPN owned and thus available for BYU to participate in after the current Las Vegas bowl upgrades to an SEC Pac 12 matchup but I'm fairly certain that the Fenway Park bowl game is ESPN owned so BYU could face Temple in Boston in late December. For the next seven years, BYU's best bowl game will be the Hawai'i Bowl. Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl In its sixth year, the Bahamas Bowl will be played on Friday, Dec. 20, at 2 p.m. on ESPN. The game will be played at Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium in Nassau and features teams from Conference USA and the Mid-American Conference. Frisco Bowl The third annual Frisco Bowl will air on ESPN2 on Friday, Dec. 20 (7:30 p.m.), from Toyota Stadium, featuring a team from the American Athletic Conference and an at-large selection from Conference USA, Mid- American Conference or Mountain West Conference. New Mexico Bowl The 14th edition of the New Mexico Bowl will be played Saturday, Dec. 21, from Dreamstyle Stadium on the campus of the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque. The 2 p.m. game on ESPN will feature a team from the Mountain West against a team from Conference USA. Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl The sixth edition of the Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl is scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 21, at 3:30 p.m. ET, on ABC, from FAU Stadium on the campus of Florida Atlantic University. Conference USA, the American Athletic Conference and the Mid-American Conference are the affiliated conferences for the game. Camellia Bowl The Camellia Bowl will be played on Saturday, Dec. 21, from historic Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Ala. at 5:30 p.m. on ESPN. The sixth annual bowl game will match teams from the Sun Belt Conference against the Mid-American Conference. Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl The Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl is set for Saturday, Dec. 21, on ABC at 7:30 p.m. The 28th annual game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas featuring the top choice from the Mountain West against a team from the Pac-12 Conference. Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl The Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl will be played Monday, Dec. 23, at 2:30 p.m. on ESPN, from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. The game will pit a team from Conference USA against a team from the American Athletic Conference. SoFi Hawai’i Bowl The Hawai’i Bowl will be played on Christmas Eve, at 8 p.m. from Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. In its 18th year, the bowl will be aired on ESPN, pitting BYU against a team from the American Athletic or Mountain West conference. Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl The 14th annual Texas Bowl is set for Friday, Dec. 27, at 6:45 p.m. on ESPN. The game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston and marks the fifth meeting between the Big 12 and SEC. SERVPRO First Responder Bowl The SERVPRO First Responder Bowl is set for Monday, Dec. 30, on ESPN at 12:30 p.m. The bowl will be played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on SMU’s campus. Birmingham Bowl The 14th annual Birmingham Bowl will be played on Thursday, Jan. 2, at 3 p.m. on ESPN. Played at historic Legion Field in Birmingham, Ala., the game will pit a team from the American Athletic Conference against a team from the Southeastern Conference. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl The 23rd annual Famous Idaho Potato Bowl is slated for Friday, Jan. 3, at 3:30 p.m. on ESPN. The game will be held at Lyle Smith Field at Albertsons Stadium, featuring teams from the Mountain West versus Mid-American Conference. Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl will be played on Saturday, Jan. 4, on ESPN. The 17th edition of the postseason college football bowl game will kick off at 11:30 a.m. from Amon G. Carter Stadium on the campus of TCU, in Fort Worth, Texas.
  11. I have no idea about the specifics of Tennessee law but federal FOIA applies to government entities and not state public entities. Nice try. Even if that was the case, they would have about six months to respond which is likely when those details are only of historic interest.
  12. The media day was in early fall. In both the case of reports about BYU and the MW, it is possible ‘informed speculation’ based on a ‘journalist’ knowing the conferences next presser is scheduled is the only real information that anyone not directly involved has. Tom Bowen feeding the press off the record about the American’s negotiations was an example of what NOT to do and it speaks highly of the Mountain West that the kind of details leaking regarding AAC negotiations aren’t leaking about MW negotiations. In retrospect a lot of leaked WAC stories probably were TB when he was at SJSU. this weekend ESPN has a Mountain West game on Friday and both a window three and a window four game (featuring Boise state) on ESPN2. I presume that if ESPN is going to increase their offer enough to get exclusivity it would be assessed this weekend because November college football generally gets the best ratings.