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Bruininthebay

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  1. Arizona is a member of the AAU while Arizona State is not. No way Wildcats leave for a less prestigious academic conference. In contrast, Arizona State has a huge online enrollment partially due to the Univ of Phoenix and isn't an AAU school so they might want to be in a geographically dispersed conference like the Big 12 because they have students throughout those areas. ASU to the Big 12 makes some sense due to a strain with the AAU schools who derive their revenue from research more than teaching like ASU.
  2. This is how Stanford padded their national championship total numbers. UCLA does sponsor men's volleyball but I don't think we have a big sailing/rowing program.
  3. Why does the OP title state there are multiple stories and link one? My hope of intriguing, relevant sports news are dashed. I don't think the conclusion the Pac 12 is falling apart is the obvious conclusion to reach after reading the article either. The academic cohesion among AAU university administrations is a powerful thing. It's second only to the Ivy League when you think of universities known for their academic reputations. Cal and UCLA are linked together by the UC system so Stanford's desire to be associated with those universities makes for a strong cohesion. U$C's administration is dealing with all fall-out from scandals, etc. so I doubt they are going to make a decision that puts the 'cart ahead of the horse' by prioritizing athletics ahead of the actual mission of that university. Independence is not appealing to a west coast university. It is important to note that only the UCLA and Arizona State president's hired Larry Scott. He made the conference a good deal at a great time to sell sports media rights but he clearly doesn't have a strategy for over the top streaming platform and so we find ourselves bereft of a meaningful alternative to ESPN+ plus heading into 2024 negotiations. The slight possibility of Arizona State leaving the Pac 12 might occur if the only pro-Scott administration is ASU after Scott is ousted. The fall out from that is enough for a substantive meeting with the Big 12 to happen. ASU and BYU probably are enough to join the Big 12 as currently composed. SDSU, Nevada and Hawai'i would be good candidates for the twelfth member if the Pac doesn't dissolve like the PCC in 1959 aka PCC 2.0.
  4. I think that games on CBS rather than on CBS Sports will get higher ratings. A minimum of three games per year will be broadcast on CBS rather than on cable and I presume each of those broadcasts will have more than one million viewers as a result. Fox should be able to get better ratings for its Boise package with Fox broadcasts. Three games are also the minimum number of national broadcasts for Fox. I presume both CBS and Fox will broadcast more Mountain West games if the money benefits them. If the broadcasts are profitable then the networks should exceed the contract minimum and that is going to be the most important way to evaluate the strength or weakness of the Mountain West as a media product. I don't think that bowl games should be on the list for comparison purposes. It's really only relevant to count the ratings for home games to determining the media contract value because home teams control broadcast rights. The AAC games on the list actually relevant to the conference's media value are: Army-Navy 7.22 millionSMU-Memphis 2.95Conf. Champ Game 2.88Cincinnati-Memphis 2.51WSU- Houston 2.07Mississippi-Memphis 1.88Wisconsin-USF 1.80USF-UCF 1.76UCLA-Cincinnati 1.63UCF-Cincinnati 1.44Houston Tulane 1.03 It's still a good list but demonstrates how much Navy's appeal as nothing to do with the American conference because it is clearly such an outlier. The only Mountain West games that are on the list which are Boise home games because none of the data is available for CBS Sports. The 2020 list should not get worse and hopefully will improve with at least six broadcasts of Mountain West home games.
  5. Interesting speculation. Personally I think that the Big Ten really wants to get Kansas as a member because it will improve their men's basketball conference considerably and they are clearly in the business of broadcasting men's basketball games to people living in the midwest. I think Texas isn't going anywhere while the Longhorn Network contract is in place and that expires in 2035. Oklahoma isn't leaving unless Texas does. Missouri is the more likely school to join Kansas because it would restore the traditional rivalry and Missouri is an AAU school. Keep in mind that Columbus, Missouri is in the Central Standard Time Zone while they play in the SEC East where every other school but Vanderbilt is in the Eastern Time Zone. Missouri initially sought an invitation and settled for the SEC. Don't kid yourself that a university president and trustees of an AAU school would not jump to join an athletic conference composed of entirely of AAU universities that are located relatively closer nearby The Big Ten would show the SEC they are the more dominant conference. The Big Ten already has the top media revenue and is likely to get more after 2023/4/5ish while the SEC isn't. West Virginia would fit very well in the SEC East to replace Missouri. Civil War history aside, WV is redneck country. In summary Kansas + Missouri to the B1G West Virginia to the SEC. The Big 12 would then be at eight members, four located in Texas, two in Oklahoma, one in Kansas and one in Iowa. The Big 12 conference probably asks USC to join (obviously phenomal to have them leave the Pac but too great for it to actually happen) but settles for getting Arizona State and BYU to stay at ten. Pac 12 would need one new member. Probably SDSU but could be Hawai'i because of TV markets in the Pacific like the Phillipines, Australia, Japan, South Korea and China where they watch US sports but who knows. If USC left the Pac 12 I think a PCC 2.0 scenario where the conference dissolves might occur. It would be earth shattering for the Trojans to abandon traditional rivalries after more than a century (Cal and Stanford v USC goes back to the 1890s). The remaining AAU schools might stay together but I could see Utah and Colorado joining Arizona State and USC if they were invited. Certainly UCLA, Arizona, Cal, Stanford, Washington and Oregon would be in the same conference together. Without Utah and Colorado I doubt we would expand into the Mountain time zone so the expansion would be from the MW West division. SDSU and Hawai'i would definitely be in. I'd like both UNLV and Nevada but probably Oregon State and Washington State too.
  6. I apologize for not recognizing that in the unlikely event BYU is bowl eligible you could appear in the Cheez It Bowl as a backup like the MW can and forgetting the Pac 12 agreed to play in Shreveport once too.
  7. Great expectations in 2018 dashed by 2019. Will Z Dub fulfill these great expectations? Are any one of these quarterbacks playing in the NFL?
  8. An ad hominem attack on the journalist followed by cacophony instead of stating why BYU hasn't posted a depth chart at the quarterback position makes me think you are actually more concerned than you want to acknowledge. For what it's worth, neither has UCLA ...
  9. The recent agreement between MLS and Liga MX probably makes it less likely that a MLS team is in San Diego because of the proximity to Club Tijuana. I don't know whether English language tv or audio broadcasts are made for CT games but since Liga MX is a better game than MLS in terms of competitive play I would guess english speaking San Diegans would be fans if they enjoy competitive soccer.
  10. I read the press release again. Yes, in the years that BYU isn't in the Independence Bowl it is possible they will play in the Hawai'i Bowl but probably only once during the term of that agreement. Here is the list of ESPN Events Bowl Games per Wikipedia (didn't double check it) ESPN Events operates the following bowls, which ESPN televises: Armed Forces Bowl Birmingham Bowl Bahamas Bowl Boca Raton Bowl Camellia Bowl Celebration Bowl Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Fenway Bowl (2020) First Responder Bowl Frisco Bowl Gasparilla Bowl Hawaii Bowl Myrtle Beach Bowl (2020) New Mexico Bowl Texas Bowl MW affiliations in Bold. Las Vegas Bowl (RIP) There is just as much of a chance of BYU being in the Potato Bowl as there is the Hawai'i and New Mexico Bowl
  11. The insight of the linked prognosticator is dubious when the first prediction is that BYU will be bowl eligible given the uncertainty at quarterback. https://www.deseret.com/2020/4/4/21207552/byu-football-byu-quarterback-race-byu-qb-derby-aaron-roderick-spring-football-zach-wilson-lds-mormon
  12. I agree. Given the bowl game has a special clause to select Hawai'i as the home team when bowl eligible, it seems just as possible to include a clause that select BYU as the visitor when they are bowl eligible. I checked and the post 2025/6 bowl games are probably going to be different. The MW will have a new San Diego stadium, a new Hawai'i stadium and a remodeled San Jose stadium to host bowl games in and that could improve the fee, scheduling and broadcast After 2025, CBS and Fox would probably be interested in broadcasting bowl games at MW school's stadiums. Playing on a network other than ESPN would make it easier to schedule those bowl games around the New Year's Holiday rather than around Christmas. ESPN would probably also have interest too but wouldn't want to change their existing calendar of bowl games from how it is now. An example of a much better bowl lineup that could be played mostly on New Year's Day is: College Football Playoff on ESPN/ABC LA Bowl v PAC 12 on Fox SD Bowl v. Big 12/Big Ten/ACC on CBS Hawai'i Bowl with provisions for both Hawai'i or a MW team against BYU or an American/CUSA team on ESPN Arizona Bowl v. American on Fox Sports Potato Bowl v MAC on ESPN Silicon Valley Bowl v. CUSA on CBS Sports Cheez It Bowl Back up for Pac 12 v. Big Ten or Big 12 on ESPN not on NYD ESPN locking up the rights of the ACC, SEC and American through 2035 creates an opportunity for the MW. The Big Ten certainly is the big beneficiary, the Big 12 has done very well while the Pac 12 admittedly hasn't done as well as the latter two conferences so the Mountain West is still looking to be able to make significant advances in the conference broadcast rights value and schedule because of the overall increase in the demand for live sports. In case anyone comments, I replaced the New Mexico Bowl with a revived Silicon Valley bowl because of the recent financial problems with the New Mexico Bowl which are likely to be exacerbated in the immediate future and the fact that SJSU had agreements with contractors before the pandemic broke out that allowed the university to build during the lockdown and makes it likely the construction will continue so long as SJSU has work that can be done to improve their athletic facility. By 2025 the Football Ops building should be completed and the Spartans will have a facility that is appropriate for playing a CUSA or MAC opponent.
  13. https://conferenceusa.com/news/2020/5/28/football-c-usa-announces-2020-25-bowl-lineup.aspx ESPN and CUSA announced their 2020 through 2025 bowl agreements. The major changes are C-USA will annually send teams to the Bahamas Bowl against a Mid-American Conference opponent, and to the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, against a Sun Belt Conference school. As previously announced, the league will continue its relationship with the Independence Bowl. C-USA is guaranteed to send a team to the Shreveport, Louisiana-based bowl in 2021 and 2025, while holding a secondary agreement with the bowl in the other years of the cycle. C-USA will also continue its long-standing relationship with the Hawai’i Bowl. The league is set to participate in the Honolulu-based game in 2020, 2022 and 202 For Reference A) The Mountain West will participate in the New Mexico Bowl and one other ESPN Events affiliated bowl game each year, per the July 2019 announcement by the conference https://themw.com/news/2019/7/24/football-mountain-west-announces-future-bowl-lineup-including-bowl-game-in-los-angeles.aspx Still no word on the yet to be announced bowl agreement by the MW but I presume that is the renewal of the backup agreement with the RedBox Bowl. B ) BYU agreed to play in the aforementioned Independence Bowl v CUSA in 21 and 25, probably a MAC opponent in 23 and a random ESPN events bowl game in 20, 22, 24 and 26. https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-releases/2020/01/espn-and-byu-reach-new-media-rights-agreement-for-cougars-home-football-games/
  14. Nice alliterative title but the article considers the MAC and New Mexico State. Dennis Dodd did a good breakdown of how the Pac 12 and Mountain West are both dealing with how (southern) california affects the rest of the West. https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/pac-12-mountain-west-in-danger-of-being-left-behind-if-college-football-returns-to-play-in-2020/ "Let's go right to the Pac-12 with the states of Washington, Oregon and California supposedly [together in reopening]," Thompson told CBS Sports. "What if the two Arizona [teams], Utah and Colorado are good to go and those are other eight are not?" Thompson would clearly LOVE to get both Arizona schools, Utah and Colorado and it would be fun for one year. If Hawaii doesn't cancel their season then, and only then, should a football only invite be issued to BYU imho. 9 + 5 would mean two divisions of seven; Arizona, ASU, UNLV, Nevada, Utah, BYU, Hawaii in the West and the SEC Mountain + Colorado. The long term impact on recruiting if the California universities cancel sports is going to be HUGE even if it is for just one year. It is now dubious whether a network will want to pay an amount that a 'power' media rights deal like the B1G of SEC gets for the Pac 12 media rights in 2024.
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