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About Bruininthebay

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  1. I'm bumping this because there is no news that the American Athletic Conferences's bowl games have changed as a result of their new deal with ESPN. It seems bowl matchups are unlikely to change if not addressed duria the broader media rights deal. It appears Birmingham is actually a pretty fun town. My opinion is now that the Birmingham Bowl should be #1 and the Hawaii Bowl is #2. Navy, Temple, Uconn and ECU probably put the military bowl ahead of the Hawaii bowl, but I think the other eight fan bases would rather go to Honolulu.
  2. Do you have links about a new West Coast Conference contract with ESPN? It would be wise for the WCC to wait and see if Gonzaga makes the Final Four this year. With Boise's home rights sold as a second package, I think that the number of ABC broadcasts (at least two!) of Boise home game is critical once the dollars get into the mid seven figures.
  3. To whomever feels I need to concede that a deal exists, an ACC media deal exists (through 2032). Essentially this deal says that every American team has the equivalent value that BYU does. Hopefully BYU ups that number in the near future. The MW might take Facebook money, but I don't think CT said anything specific. In 2017 he said that a deal with ESPN and Google might make sense (pre-BAMTech acquisition by Disney that underlies ESPN +) but that the MW would wait and see how the market develops. The major upside for the MW is that rights fees INCREASED by about four times for the American. ESPN will understand that the price of Window 4 content is going up to reflect where both BYU and the American are priced. ESPN can't make a deal with the MW until after CBS's exclusive window expires, but I still expect that the MW will get an exclusive deal with ESPN that is
  4. I continue to think that neither the conferences or fans expected regulators to force a sale of the RSNs as a condition of Fox's sale of media properties to Disney at the exact time the AAC and MW would negotiate their new media rights. The AAC is more affected than the MW simply due to the particulars of which RSNs are included in that sale. AT&T Sportsnet Rocky Mountain clearly could use lots of tier 2/3 Mountain West content for their RSN. Only San Diego State is affected by the sale of the former Prime Ticket RSNs, but given how interested CBS Sports has been in broadcasting Aztec games I expect both ESPN and Fox Sports would be interested in broadcasting the Aztecs too. Temple should be able to get a large deal with NBC Sports Philadelphia, which is NBC Sports flagship RSN. Uconn might be of interest to the YES Network, NBC Sports New England and the New England Sports Network. Houston would be able to discuss with ATT Sportsnet Houston whether they could make a deal. However, all other AAC teams are in markets where you would want to talk to that particular RSN to maximize bidders for your rights. UCF, USF, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Wichita State are in markets where a Fox Sports RSN controls the local pro sports team rights and the local RSN would likely be worth discussing a deal with regarding media rights in those places. Until the AAC has someone to negotiate with, they can't really complete a diligent effort to establish a market for their rights. It's probably more likely the MW reaches an agreement in the May/June time frame because it appears the RSN sale could be in turmoil though the end of the year. Ideally the American would have signed a deal before the MW to set the market favorably for sellers but it is still possible the MW can achieve a non-trivial increase in their media rights based on the market dynamics versus the Pac 12 and then the American will benefit if the MW receives a significant increase - or simply ignore that agreement if the MW does not substantially increase their rights.
  5. Thanks for linking the article. Here is the quote attributed to the Hair relevant to media rights negotiations: CBS Sports will have an exclusive negotiating window with the Mountain West beginning in April on whether to renew. After a decision is made on whether to continue the relationship, the conference can enter potential renewal discussions with ESPN and AT&T SportsNet. Nothing in that statement indicates the Mountain West will do anything. CBS Sports gets to make the first offer, and just like the American and ESPN it is possible that no agreement will occur during the exclusive window. In fact, the specific mention of ESPN and AT&T indicate that CBS is unlikely to present anything that would cause the Mountain West to not subsequently negotiate with ESPN, AT&T and others after that period ends. Nothing in the 2018 quotation is inconsistent with the longer interview he gave in 2017. On the other hand, Aresco is constantly being interviewed and firing off press releases but has been completely silent during the negotiations. I guess that if negotiations were going well he would be doing something other than telling the Heir Tom Bowen to not talk about negotiations. Also, here is the video interview of CT again http://www.coloradoan.com/videos/sports/csu/football/2017/07/29/mw-weighs-tv-digital-options-commissioner-says/104107574/
  6. You fail to understand my argument and Craig Thompson's statement in 2017 which was recorded and linked in a video I posted already for you. You are paraphrasing me incorrectly. My own logic does not rest on any assumption that the MW is having negotiations for their media rights at the present time or during the past year and a half. Per CT in the video I linked already the MW told its media partners they didn't want to renew the current deal in 2017 and would see where things stand in 2019 before conducting discussions about a new deal. If the MW doesn't want to negotiate, then what 'logic' causes you to believe that discussions are occurring? There is nothing to indicate that the MW is having discussions at the present time about its media rights, nor did I ever state that there are. On the other hand, in the OP it is clear that the American seeks to renew its current exclusive agreement with ESPN. Now it is the middle of March and no agreement has been announced. Each passing day it is increasingly clear that no deal was reached during the exclusive negotiation period between ESPN and the American because an announcement would have been made to reflect that by now. Given that the American clearly seeks to renew, logically either ESPN doesn't want to pay the price the American seeks or simply doesn't need the content because ESPN already has media rights that are a better alternative. The MW and the American appear to be pursuing vastly different approaches in obtaining revenue for their media rights. The MW told its media partners it doesn't want the old deal they offer while the American is asking it's media partners to renew their old deal at a higher price. It is illogical to think that speculation about one applies to speculation about the other.
  7. Didn't you just spend two pages of posts speculating on the basis that Rice and Tulane are religious universities? I can't help your ability to comprehend words composed in paragraphs but the fact that I explain my reasoning doesn't make me 'dense' in a pejorative sense.
  8. The MW told it's media partners that renewing at the current price wasn't what they are looking to do. It is also clear that both CBS and ESPN are interested in MW rights based on their offer to renew. http://www.coloradoan.com/videos/sports/csu/football/2017/07/29/mw-weighs-tv-digital-options-commissioner-says/104107574/ CT's point in discussing streaming was to make clear that there are more bidders than their used to be for media rights because streaming is a developing technology. CT didn't say "The MW is going digital' but he did state to a reporter from the Coloradoan (in the summer of 2017 which pre-dates ESPN/Disney's acquisition of BAMTech/MLB Advanced Media) that change is occuring in the media rights market so there is no rush to make a deal until things sort themselves out. He used the phrase 'keep our powder dry' and simply mentioned a couple of the FAANG's as examples of companies entering the market for media rights. Recently Amazon acquired a partial ownership interest in the YES network so it is the case that new companies are acquiring the rights to stream/broadcast sports.
  9. Tom Holmoe is optimistic about lots of things - including a new deal with ESPN and scheduling games against Notre Dame. Neither have come to fruition; what is debatable is which is less likely to occur. Personally I think optimistic BYU fans should look forward to BYU TV broadcasts and either Fox Sports or NBC Sports. Utah, Boise State and Utah State road games are going to be when BYU gets on ESPN post 2020 - unless BYU somehow becomes bowl eligible again. Tom Holmoe talked about a new tv deal last June. https://www.sltrib.com/sports/byu-cougars/2018/06/22/byus-tom-holmoe-is-confident-about-making-deals-with-espn-and-notre-dame/ That isn't recent in my understanding of the word's meaning but the quotes existence supports my point that if ESPN wanted to get a deal renewed they would have done so already because Tom Holmoe hoped to do so as early as June 2018.
  10. Way to stumble out of the gate. Given that you can only broadcast one game at a time on an ESPN run conference network and the Big Ten network, any 'overflow' will get placed in the window 1, 2 and 3 spots on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 where they can earn the most advertiser revenue from viewership. The SEC network doesn't show the best SEC game on ESPN/Disney and neither will the ACC network. The ACC has a LOT of content and it is all in the eastern time zone - with the SEC network there is still a CBS deal for over the air games and central time zone teams while the ACC is exclusively Disney's so that is why the ACC network will have a bigger impact on the American than the SEC network in terms of affecting ESPN's need for any tier 1/2 content in Windows 1, 2 or 3. My consideration is tier 1/2 when talking about a media rights deal because over the air and on ESPN or ESPN2 are where the viewers are. The Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac 12 are paid high dollar amounts to put their tier 1/2 games on either ESPN or Fox now. Arguably the Big 12's ability to sell tier 3 rights to RSNs has been beneficial but tier 3 is not where the significant financial value is when talking about a media rights deal Windows 1, 2 and 3 are for tier 1 and 2 content - not tier 3. ESPN + is for tier 3. CBS Sports has been the primary rights holder of the Mountain West since the inception of the Mountain West network mid-aughts; the MW doesn't stand in stark contrast due to the American being an exclusive ESPN property. The American's exclusive era on ESPN is ending in the near future because a renewal would have been announced during the exclusive negotiating window that expired March 2. MW fans learned a lot about how to find CBS Sports and look forward to never watching it again. CBS would be great if you get over the air games so hopefully an American deal with CBS would include a provision to be shown on CBS itself occasionally. All MW content that is not a Boise State home game is sublicensed from CBS Sports. To repeat, ESPN pays extra to pick up MW games that are not Boise home game from the primary rights holder CBS Sports because they can earn more for broadcasting that game than the primary rights holder can. The frequent occurrence of this practice over the years indicates that ESPN probably would be interested in becoming the primary rights holder where they would not have to give CBS a cut when they choose to broadcast a MW game. BYU's poor performance on the field obviously makes the Mountain West way more appealing because the majority of teams in the MW are better than the Cougars in any given year during their independent era. Fox will have interest in the Cougars because they want to advertise to those households already and NBC might want to pare them with Notre Dame (MIGHT) but if ESPN wanted to renew with BYU they would have done it already. New Mexico State is an auto-win for Pac 12 and MW schools every year in their independent era. Why would ESPN care to broadcast a blowout game of a bad team when it can broadcast a competitive MW or Pac 12 game? ESPN broadcasts the best competition available - evident from their willingness to sublicense MW games from time to time despite the significant payment to a competing sports network.
  11. The point being missed is that 'third tier' Atlantic Coast and SEC content supplants whatever need ESPN had for the American 'first tier' content on Saturday in Windows 1, 2 and 3. Fox, NBC and CBS are all more likely to purchase the American's rights than ESPN is because they can broadcast games in Saturday windows. The exclusive negotiation period expired over 10 days ago and there is no news indicating ESPN did anything but wish Aresco et al good luck. The Pac 12 Network creates a different situation for ESPN and the Mountain West because ESPN pays a lot for Window 4 content from the Pac 12. The MW is the only alternative to the Pac 12 for Window 4 and, combined with hosting at least four bowl games in MW stadiums, there are unique circumstances that favor ESPN making a deal with the MW.
  12. Please keep in mind that Houston has an existing relationship with an AT&T RSN so exactly what that means and what it is worth is included in your current media revenues somehow now and is not of negligible value (or why do the deal?). The big revelation of these talks was that the sellers sought ~$20 billion and the bidders all offered ~$10 billion. Amazon and Sinclair acquired a minority interest at the same time that the Yankees purchased a controlling interest in the YES network so it is clear that some RSNs do have value. https://ballparkdigest.com/2019/03/11/yankees-amazon-sinclair-close-on-yes-network-deal-report/ It may not be the case that all of them have as much value as they were thought to. RSNs are often the single most expensive channel on a cable company when rights fees are considered. ESPN also has a high cable sub rights fee but not as high as most RSNs do. Revenue is derived from advertising and cable subscription fees by both RSNs and by ESPN so if there is uncertainty about the value of the underlying business then it will muddy the waters until the sale is completed and probably delay when those businesses are ready to enter the market for new media rights. The RSNs are 'upstream' from college football conferences and the value of a deal for these media rights are multiple orders of magnitude greater that of the media rights for football conferences. A number of these RSNs would be potential purchasers of a conference's media rights so uncertainty about how well the overall sports media business in a particular media market is doing reduces the interest in the rights to the particular sports properties in those particular markets. If there is uncertainty it is likely that buyers are fewer and offering lower prices than they might in the future.
  13. Tom Bowen's contract as athletic director at Memphis has been extended ... but only until the end of the year. Perhaps his record as athletic director isn't so stellar in the eyes of senior administration? The contract is "through the end of the calendar year until our new AAC conference media rights deal is finalized and the overall financial picture of the University of Memphis Athletic Department for the next several years is clear” per University of Memphis President M. David Rudd. https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/columnists/mark-giannotto/2019/03/11/memphis-ad-tom-bowen-agrees-six-month-contract-extension/3136191002/ In the printed quotation of the Univ of Memphis president I can't tell if the condition is the end of the year or the completion of the media rights deal, but the use of the phrase 'media rights' sticks out. There is a lot of uncertainty about the value of sports media rights caused by the tepid bidding for 21 regional sports networks (mostly not in the western half of the United States) Disney has for sale that it must sell to get regulators approval. If the American is seeking to get money for 'third tier' media rights, the regional sports networks whom broadcast professional baseball and other sports are the likely purchasers but if there isn't a present owner of that RSN then no one can decide to purchase the rights for a particular university's athletic program. The Disney/Fox sale revealed that rather than the $20 billion or so they sought, bidders were only offering bids in the $10 billion range. If the value of RSNs in markets where American Athletic Conference universities are located is half what the seller expected it to be, it does not bode well for the potential of AAC universities to find as much revenue as they might expect for broadcasting games to viewers in those areas through media rights at those RSNs. The MW is in a slightly different situation due to AT&T operating a RSN with an interest in broadcasting Mountain division content and that isn't held up by a sale directed by federal regulators. San Diego is where an RSN is included in the sale but the stadium situation is more immediate so hopefully by the time the owner of the new RSN can purchase Aztec media rights, the particulars of the stadium purchase and sale will be completed so that the full value of Aztec media sports in a market without the Chargers can be obtained by the university. Finally, the Mountain West should wait and see about what happens regarding San Jose State's Football Operations Building fundraising April deadine. If the Spartans don't meet the $40 million goal by the deadline, it's possible they'll have to make a decision like Humboldt State; the CSU Chancellor established a precedent so the Spartans may have to decide to compete in a conference where their athletic budget is competitive rather than continue in the Mountain West. Personally I think that a competitive conference with games that deserve wider audiences is a selling point to potential media partners so an increased proportion of games that are competitive at a high level increases the value of the media property. I guess the MW remains at 11 without SJSU until 2026 when media rights come up again or expansion happens 2024ish.