Jump to content

utgrizfan

Members
  • Posts

    2,057
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Everything posted by utgrizfan

  1. I'd love for both Montana and MSU to be added to get to 16, but as you said the reality is current FBS programs in markets that would contribute to the new TV deal will take priority.
  2. Would depend on the PAC2/MWC new TV deal and i'm pretty sure that would beat what is now a watered down AAC. Also currently the CUSA schools that joined the AAC are making less then half of a full share of the legacy teams (around 2 million I think) so it's not as far fetched as people think. UTEP and Texas State would probably be the teams they target if they fail to snag any AAC schools.
  3. Makes me curious who they would target to get to 16 as the pickings are much slimmer out west (don't see the $$ being there to allow expansion to 18 or Oly only picks being an option). My money would be on them going after a pair of Texas schools (UTSA, UNT etc.)
  4. Curious if they're going to get anything close to what UCONN makes as an Indy, I think it's 7 million?
  5. The more the WAC falls apart the more I'm suspecting SUU and UT-Tech will end up in the Big Sky eventually, honestly have 0 idea why SUU left in the first place.
  6. The only way I could see this being accelerated is if the TV people (ESPN) maybe pressure the ACC to settle? Sooner this gets squared away the sooner ESPN gets their desired P2 Conference. And based on how things look atm I could see both going to the SEC so both P2 Conferences have 18 teams. Regardless even then I don't see OSU and Wazzu being the top options to backfill when Tulane and USF for example are available. Best bet for the PAC2 would be trying to buy their way into the Big12, even at a reduced rate but as we've seen so far there's no TV $$ in it and apparently 0 interest. Writing seems to be on the wall to merge with the MWC in some form, unless something crazy happens.
  7. If they go after schools in Texas my vote would be UTSA, after that UNT or Rice (media markets = more likely to add value to TV Contract) and I think it'd be possible to poach them, especially if the new PAC/MWC gets a better TV deal then the AAC. I say let CAL rot regardless, SJSU already brings the Bay Area market technically.
  8. As many have mentioned I highly doubt that there is any truth to this, however IF (and that is a huge IF) this happened the MWC would at least be in a position to backfill quite easily and I don't think it'd be a bad looking Conference: Wyoming, Air Force, Nevada, USU, SJSU, New Mexico, Hawaii, *NMSU, *UTEP, *Montana, *MSU, *Idaho(or)*Sac State(or)*UC-Davis
  9. Unfortunately personal feelings don't matter, TV $$ is what will matter at the end of the day, hence the MWCs desire to add them.
  10. I mean in terms of fan base, not counting the Playoffs, Montana beat the following 8 MWC schools in Average attendance in 2023: SDSU, UNLV, Wyoming, Utah State, Nevada, SJSU, New Mexico, *Hawaii (*Hawaii new Stadium may/should change this, side note Montana State would also beat the last 5 teams on this list*) https://www.d1ticker.com/2023-fbs-attendance-trends/ It's one of our greatest selling points, having great attendance (even during our last losing season) and also traveling well to away games, MSU to a lesser extent but they still do well. Both Montanas would also fit perfectly in the MWC geographical footprint. That being said I'm still well aware the best chance we have to move up is if the MWC is only partially raided, and we all know how unlikely that is to happen. Plus unfortunately the biggest shortcoming, lack of eyeballs which translates to little to no TV $$ value is an issue.
  11. With the group of schools they have there is no way they'll be able to move up as a Conference due to lack of money, facilities etc. That idea has been pretty much scrapped, especially with the UAC probably losing Tarleton State to CUSA (rumors)
  12. OSU and Wazzu are going to pursue the following in order, regardless of how likely it is or not: 1-Join or buy their way into the ACC or Big12 (banking on ACC collapse) 2-Poach teams from the MWC and probably AAC, try to get Calford back, keep P5 Status 3-Go Independent, maintain P5 Status 4-Full merger with the MWC The most likely scenario is obviously #4 and the one I personally think is going to happen eventually. As a Montana fan I'm hoping for #2 as it would give us the best chance to move up with MSU.
  13. Oh absolutely the MWC in the end has more leverage and I'm absolutely on yalls side in this. If they don't join (outside of a very minimal chance of poaching, and maybe SDSU being themselves) I don't see the MWC disappearing, one reason why I want both Montana and MSU to join someday.
  14. I was thinking more like a Hawaii type situation, granted I still think it will be a full merger eventually. The PAC2 have made it clear they're going to explore all other options first however
  15. Guess it now boils down to if the MWC will accept them as Football only or demand full membership. Honestly adding them as football only might be the best option, doesn't hurt the MWC Basketball strength and they would still add $$ to the MWC new TV deal.
  16. Looks like there is a chance that FSU plus a few more schools may be able to get out of the ACC before 2025. Article talks about how a settlement is most likely between the 2 parties as losing would be devastating to FSU (stuck in the ACC + Fines) or to the ACC (GOR broken, flood gates open). https://www.on3.com/news/florida-state-acc-negotiation-to-set-up-next-round-of-realignment/
  17. Houston is the #8 TV Market according to the Nielsen rankings. I remember when Tom Herman was at Houston they seemed to always have a packed house and great fan support, if Fritz can turn the Cougars around maybe their fickle fan base will actually start showing up, there's alot of potential/upside for Houston.
  18. Even if there was some poaching MWC would still exist, I've mentioned what I think would happen a few times on here: -NMSU, UTEP would be for sure adds and maybe Texas State and other Texas CUSA teams to exhaust all FBS options. -After that you have Montana, MSU, Sac State/UC-Davis, Idaho, NDSU, SDSU etc. Only reason I hope it happens is because it gives both Montana schools the best chance to move up. But as mentioned I also belive that it's more a matter of when not if the PAC2 merge entire with the MWC.
  19. Honestly think a buy out is merely a 2nd or even tertiary hope for the PAC2, based on their behavior and ignoring whats rational, most likey or plain common sense : -Join a P4 Conference (even as Football only) -Rebuild PAC with select MWC + AAC schools, retain Power or match ACC and Big12 level. -Become Independent Power teams with a scheduling agreement with the MWC, other sports probably end up in the Big West. (A buy out would make sense for these scenarios, they'd get even more $$ as it would be necessary to achieve any of these) They've made it clear that they don't want to merge with the entire MWC, I wouldn't put it past the CFP Committee to maybe look into helping breaking up the MWC themselves to make it happen. People will go to great lengths and do anything when millions of millions of dollars are on the table, and especially if the TV overlords only want certain programs/see value.
  20. A few things stand out to me: -WSU and OSU want to continue to receive the Power level 5-6 Million per school even after the current Contract is up in 2 years, in addition to Voting rights. -The request would be considered null and void if they get into a Power Conference. -Doesn't look like a for sure thing it will pass as the PAC2 could still torpedo it if they don't get what they want, at the same time admit they can't overplay their hand. Taking this into account even I'm beginning to doubt a bit if the PAC2 will end up in the MWC, they seem hellbent on avoiding that fate.
  21. I do still think a full merger of the PAC+MWC is the most likely scenario and those 3 plus 1 more would/should beat the current AAC TV deal. Not going after UTSA before imo was a mistake, so them and another large Market Texas team (UNT, Rice etc.) would add value. I think all the CUSA additions are only making around 2-4 million currently.
  22. If the MWC does expand into Texas there are much better choices then UTEP, especially considering they'd have to bring financial value and I don't see El Paso doing that. The only sceanrio UTEP gets into the MWC is if the Conference is only partially raided, which seems very unlikely. The most likely scenario I see the PAC2 being able to achieve (outside of a full reverse merger or buying their way into a Power Conference) is going Indy and keeping the current scheduling agreement if it means keeping their Power status, similar to ND and the ACC. It's probably the best/only way to use what leverage they have to negotiate with the CFP Committee to give them their much desired 5-7 format. If that occurs I think going after a pair of Texas schools would be smart to ensure added value to the new MWC TV deal, could use the additional funds from OSU and Wazzu to help bring a pair over. UTSA and UNT would be my picks as they would add value (why the AAC added them), a new Timezone/TV slot options and as far as I understand they make less then the current legacy AAC teams, meaning they'd get more in the MWC. SDSU..........Utah State Fresno........Wyoming SJSU..........CSU Hawaii........Air Force UNLV...........New Mexico Nevada.......UTSA Boise...........UNT *OSU...........*Wazzu (scheduling alliance)
  23. Personally I wouldn't mind seeing both in the Big12 and I think from the CFB Playoff payments they will be receiving they could use that to get into a P2 Conference (SEC and Big10 arent options). Looks like the Power Conferences each made over 79 million according to this in 2023: https://businessofcollegesports.com/college-football-playoff-payouts/ And from what I understand they will still be receiving a Power level payout for the next 2 Seasons, if true that's a decent chunk of change + the credits and assets they'd bring as well. If they joined the Big12 (probably ideal over the ACC mess) could have a solid 3 Pod format for scheduling: WEST: Wazzu, OSU, Utah, BYU, Arizona, ASU CENTRAL: Colorado, Kansas, KSU, ISU, Okie State, TTU EAST: TCU, Baylor, Houston, UCF, Cincy, WVU Could follow a 5-2-1 format where they play their Pod teams every season and then a rotating 2-1 game setup from the other Pods every other season.
  24. Utah was definitely trying to keep the PAC together and it was an admirable attempt that created some good optics. My only point is that what's done is done and now is the time to focus on becoming the top team in the Big12.
  25. They were made our rival when we joined the PAC but that's why they were listed as a regional opponent, I only mentioned TCU as an old rival as those games were always intense, I was working security on the TCU sideline during the Sugar Bowl year when they came to Rice Eccles. Technically I should have listed BYU as a rival, but I'm happy the Holy War is going to be played regularly again.
×
×
  • Create New...