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FresnoFacts

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  1. Trafalgar's Nevada crosstabs https://drive.google.com/file/d/17CBTDAU6xkJ6jrrYOaAyTW62fAUxT0VB/view have Biden with big support among NV women (52.6%-41.2%) and under 25 year olds (52.2%-35.2%). Women and Gen Z in Nevada do not like Trump. The over 65 year olds are listed as 47.4% Trump; 45.5% Biden. Not a big margin for Trump in the Nevada senior citizen demo. Trafalgar also has Biden with a big lead in NV CD1 and Trump with the lead in NV CD2. They have CD4 as Trump 46.5% and Biden 44.6%. CD3 is listed as basically a dead heat Biden 47.7% Trump 47.2%.
  2. Rudy can pronounce all of those names. But can he pronounce Kamala correctly? In terms of lost it, don't forget what his third wife said two years ago. “For a variety of reasons that I know as a spouse and a nurse, he has become a different man.”
  3. Trafalgar has not released all of its crosstabs. But where they have, Trump's deficit with women shows. The crosstabs I could find for individual states show large margins of women saying they will vote for Biden over Trump. Keep an eye on gender along with age demographics of voters.
  4. Why isn't the RSM (right side media) covering this?
  5. Shhh, you are going to let the secret out. It is our favorite. Have gotten to know some locals over the years. The slower pace on the Big Island is great. Tourists who want lots of activity need to stay away and go to Oahu or Maui instead.
  6. There are several factors that probably are making it difficult on the pollsters this year. They have to account for a larger early voting, an increase in young voters, etc. 2016 is what most remember. But Rasmussen in 2012 is also a good example. The right-leaning pollster called the election for Romney in their final poll that year. In the post-mortem Rasmussen said they were wrong with their poll because they expected the percentage of non-white voters to be same as 2008. Instead the percentage of non-white voters increased in 2012. It will be interesting to see which pollste
  7. I've thought that would be an improvement. It would eliminate some of the concerns about urban/rural splits in some states and let more people feel their voice was heard even if their candidate lost the EC. It would still have some bias toward population/popular vote since Congressional Districts are based on similar populations. But the Senate EVs would offset some of that.
  8. Now it is the possibility of "hidden" Biden voters who may impact the election. the possible Republicans and other 2016 Trump voters who this time will vote Biden but don't want their friends and family to know.
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