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About CaffeinatedCoog

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  1. It doesnt really matter. You poach and expand BEFORE you negotiate in an effort to make your conference more valuable. Unless you have a pro rata clause in the deal (which I doubt Disney will ever use again), you dont expand AFTER the deal. Expanding after the deal is signed just degrades per team earnings.
  2. The Big East teams get 4 million each now. Interestingly, the last season the C7 and Big East were all together---the all sports teams like UConn and W Virginia were getting less than 4 million a year from media. In fact, in 2020---the first year of the new deal, UConn will get more from media (7 million) than they ever received before---including their BIg East days. The Big East really wasnt paid all that well. They were just getting to where they were going to get a decent pay day when the whole thing blew up.
  3. Its a small separate deal. Our CBS-Sports Network games are actually sublicensed from ESPN. This is a first tier deal for the AAC has directly with CBS-OTA. For instance, Houston vs Cinci was under that deal this year and it was on CBS-OTA. The AAC has no direct deal with CBS-Sports Network.
  4. The "CBS" deal is with CBS----not CBS Sports Network. It only covers about 6 to 8 games and currently pays between 1 and 2 million year. CBS does get gets first pick from the basketball inventory. Even if the CBS deal doubles or triples---its only going be 250K to maybe $500K per team. That said, CBS-Sports is also paying something for the Navy games (guessing 2 to 4 million a year). So, all told, perhaps another 8 million or so a year might need to be added to the 83 million dollar per year total. So---its possible it could get to around 7.5 million per team for a media payout.
  5. Its really not that different. Looks like the stuff that was on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU/ESPN-News will stay the same. The AAC always had some content on ESPN-3. The difference is the games we had on CBS-Sports Network (about 13 football games) will be heading to ESPN+. We also had a significant number of basketball games on CBS-Sports (maybe 20-25+/)- Those will get stuck on ESPN+ as well. Kinda sucks as that is trading a national network with 50-60 million subscribers for a streaming network with barely over 2 million subscribers. But---at least we can start those games whatever times we want---so fewer 11am starts I suppose. Thats about the only turd polishing that can be done on that ESPN+ angle.
  6. That was about what I expected it would be---6 to 8 million. Hoped for more....but the numbers basically said 6-8 million was the most likely landing spot for the deal.
  7. There is no doubt that its easier for a G5 conference to prove they deserve a better TV deal than it is for a G5 to work themselves into a mid-to-high level non-CFP bowl opportunity.
  8. The RSN's will have zero affect on the AAC TV negotiations that really matter. The AAC deals with RSN's are for 3rd tier content that ESPN and CBS-Sports have passed on. Thats not where the money is at. The MW utilizes RSN's more than the AAC---but I suspect the money they receive there is minimal compared to the thier ESPN/CBS-Sports deals. As you said---its not really a big deal either way for the MW since they dont really deal with the Fox RSN's in question.
  9. Not unreasonable speculation. That said---back in 2013, the time between the AAC announced that the ESPN match of the NBC deal did in fact qualified as a "match"---to the date the ESPN contract was officially announced at the presser---was about a month. Given the talk out of Memphis, its entirely possible that a deal was struck in principal during the ESPN exclusive negotiating period and, right now, minor details are being worked out. Among the possible sticking points that needed to be hashed out are some you mentioned. Does the new AAC allow sub-licensing? Does the conference share in that income this time around? Is there an investment by ESPN in AAC on campus production facilities for ESPN+ content? That on-campus investment has been a common feature of deals involving ESPN+ or ESPN3 in the past. If there is an ESPN on campus investment--how much is it and is there some smaller annual payment to marginally offset production costs? How is AAC content presented on Plus---does it get a home page button that leads to all AAC content---almost like a digital network? Does any income get shifted forward into the existing deal? Perhaps bowl positioning has been made part of the TV talks by the AAC--which could slow things down. The point is---they could easily have already reached a base deal in principal (price, length, exposure, and content) during the exclusive period, but still have lots of specifics to iron out. Or, as you mentioned---its possible they reached an agreement---but for only a portion of the AAC content and the conference is now working with other networks to sell off the remaining content package (or packages).
  10. Thats from 2017. Even in 2017, he sounds like he is preparing the members for a let down. In 2018 Thompson states that CBS-Sports wont decide if even wants to renew until April 2019 (so, I have to assume the offer to extend at the current price is no longer on the table). He doesnt sound very optimistic about the money. When the commissioner says---the outlet doesnt really matter....hard to see that as a good sign. https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/unlv/unlv-football/mountain-west-future-on-the-line-as-tv-deals-near-end/
  11. Swing and a miss. You failed to address the question put to you. They had over a year and havnt signed an upgraded deal. According to your OWN logic it means there is no demand above the current price. Thats your logic---not mine. Point being---your logic is simply wrong headed.
  12. So, using that logic---what does it mean that the MW was offered an extension at the current price over a year ago and hasnt been able to get a deal? Surely, if the demand for those late games was as ripe as you claim--these networks should be falling all over themselves to pay whatever Thompson is asking---right? Instead--Thompson has been talking about taking all the games digital--perhaps even on the MW's own digital network. Hmmmm....maybe you're just using faulty logic.....yet again. I think the reality is ESPN basically sees little reason to make their best offer until the property is about to exit the exclusive negotiating phase and enter the open market.
  13. Jeez Louise---are you ever right? Disney used AAC content to fill 32 ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU football windows in 2018. As I explained before, 3rd tier content is used to fill conference networks. The Pac12, Big10, SEC, and now the ACC--- all have conference networks. That third tier content is spoken for. The Big12 has a total of 10 tier 3 games---and most of those games are already spoken for. There is no big treasure trove of unused tier 3 P5 football games just lying around for ESPN to use to fill those 32 AAC slots. Furthermore---Disney used AAC content in 15 of their valuable ABC/ESPN windows. Thats about as often as they used Pac12 or Big12 content in those same flagship network broadcast windows. That indicates that Disney not only needs the AAC content to fill holes---but they also find it a significant segment of that content to be of ABC/ESPN quality. In stark contrast---the MW had ONE game on ESPN and ZERO on ABC. Now lets look at how ESPN used the MW. The the Mountain West was used primarily by Disney to fill its lowest viewed broadcast window (late night) on its least viewed platform (ESPNU). Economics come into play. How much is it worth to fill the least watched window on the least watched network once 80% of the country is already in bed? I suspect they can pay more than they are currently paying---but the reality is they cant pay a whole lot to fill that slot. The economic ceiling is really low in that space. ESPN can always just show a rerun of the Bama game or rerun Sports Center for nothing. Given that 80% of the nation is asleep---its not a deal breaker for ESPN to show a rerun. Or ESPN can start some lower end central time AAC games at 8:30 or 9pm, use BYU games, and grab the NM St package for virtually nothing to fill most of those slots. Its erroneous to assume ESPN has no options.
  14. Your missing my point. Saturday--Friday---Thursday---doesnt matter. The content for the ACC Network isnt coming from content that was owned by ESPN in 2018. Like all the other conference networks, the The ACC Network will be filled using third tier content. In this case, the ACC Network will be filled using content obtained from Raycom. Is it possible there may be a game or two here and there moved from the ESPN inventory to make the ACC Network more attractive? Perhaps. But if that happens, it will be a very limited move and will only open a handful of ESPN broadcast windows over the course of the entire year. Basically---the ACC Network is not going to have any significant effect on the existing distribution of Disney broadcast windows for college football.
  15. I doubt the first season of the ACC Network will have much affect on the current availability of broadcast windows on the Disney Networks. Most of the inventory slated to fill the ACC Network is third tier ACC content obtained from Raycom (that's why Raycom is pretty much history after this year). ESPN may slide a few better games from their 1rst/2nd tier inventory to make the network easier to sell to cable operators--but these limited moves are NOT going to leave ESPN scrambling to fill 2 or 3 vacant broadcast windows each Saturday. Im guessing Disney will have less than ten vacant slots to fill all season as a result of the ACC Network---and that number is probably way high. The real number could just 3 or 4...or even zero.