Wyobraska

On 9/6/2024 at 12:09 PM, Full said:

I assume the PAC would want USF and Memphis as part of their rebuild.  I don’t think they want just the top 6 MW teams. 

If you are USF and Memphis, that can't be an enticing offer with the potential ACC drama like you mentioned.  Plus, how much different would the payouts be from the rebuild PAC 12 to the AAC when you factor in exit fees and travel?  

I think the PAC 12 might be thinking, get to 8 members and then see what happens but I don't see many schools wanting to join that conference.  Maybe some Texas schools that aren't getting full payouts from the AAC but would the PAC 12 want them?

On 9/6/2024 at 11:32 AM, Full said:

The problem with option #1 is the ACC issue. While the Florida State/Clemson lawsuit is still hanging around, who wants to jump into a PAC-12 rebuild knowing the ACC will pick it over as soon as Florida State and Clemson bail.
 

Option #4 isn’t realistic.  They were P5 schools but also the bottom of the P5 teams with PAC-12 money.https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

Option #2 may be an option, but it’s short term at best. 
 

I think most fans on the outside know option #3 is the best available options, but WOSU seem determined to hold out as long as possible. 

I don't know if the ACC will pick up anyone from a rebuild PAC 12.  It would depend on how much weight Cal and Stanford have, but the ACC would be smart to stay closer to the East and add schools like Memphis and USF.  Their TV deal will eventually go down or stay flat.  Adding far flung schools like OSU and WSU doesn't make much sense for anyone besides Cal and Stanford really.  

On 9/6/2024 at 11:23 AM, wolf from 73 said:

It's sounds like they will try independence, hoping the ACC opens up for them. No matter what they do it will burn through all their money in a couple of years. They each pull 27 million from the Pac-12. At 54 million a year to fund their programs at a P-5 level is not sustainable for more than 3 years. There are also costs associated with running a conference. They are so stupid trying to deny their new reality.

Probably hoping for an extension to their 2 timeline to rebuild the PAC.  They will forfeit a lot of money going independent and you are right, where are they going to get money for their budgets?  Who will give them a TV deal?  The CW buys games from the currently.  I wonder if the CW would start to produce games?  OSU and WSU couldn't pay for their own production like they do now.  

On 9/6/2024 at 11:01 AM, Chalsean said:

The only option that doesnt seem bat-sh*t crazy and/or within the realm of possibility is #3, but I just dont see them executing to it.  Seems to be a canyon size difference between P2 and MWC positions.  So the next 12 months will be very interesting.  I think the possibility of PAC and MWC both existing is nil.

Another interesting bit from the OSU guy was he kept referring to Power 5 and said PAC is a power conference while it exists.  That makes me think they are still on the rebuild path..  dont see how they will accomplish it but they must have some backdoor stuff going on to have any measure of confidence in that strategy.

It's crazy.  I agree that I think #3 is the only logical option but I think they will try to rebuild.  Maybe they can get a TV deal around $10-$15 million per year and they hope that further chaos works in their favor.  They might legally be P5 for now as far as some of that stuff but they are no longer a P5 conference.  I don't see them getting an automatic qualifier to the playoffs or anything like that.  They won't get an equal distribution with the Big 12 or ACC from the playoffs. 

It will be fascinating to watch play out.  

On 9/6/2024 at 9:46 AM, Chalsean said:

True..  thats a good point.  I dont know man, I simply cannot see 6 MWC teams joining them just so they (OSU/WSU) can retain money. It would be horribly expensive for questionable gain.  The only path would be 9 MWC teams at a minimum but I just dont see getting 9 university presidents to agree to bone the other 3 and OSU/WSU seem to have zero appetite for going beyond 6.  I just dont see what OSU/WSU strategy is here.

There was an interview with the OSU AD recently where he mentioned there will be more P4 teams on the 2025 schedule than 2024.  ACC kept coming up as far as the CW rights and exposure.

It's tough.  It seems like they have very limited options to me but I can see why they are drawing this out to maximize their chances.  

For 2025 I think they are building out their own schedules and trying to get more P4 games

For 2026, their options seem slim. 

1.  Rebuild PAC 12.  Seems like a lot of money to spend and I'm not sure how much that helps them in the end.  $30 million per school is a lot of money when their budgets are getting slashed.  I don't know if the ACC will shake out before they have to make a decision.  Would Stanford or Cal even want to be associated with a conference that has teams like Boise St, SDSU, or Fresno St in it?  

2.  Go independent.  Losing all of the last PAC 12 money seems crazy.  

3.  Merge with MW and keep their money but probably lose some perceived status.  In reality though, a reconstructed PAC is going to be a G6 conference too.  

4.  Buy their way into the Big 12 or ACC.  I don't see this as reality.  

On 9/6/2024 at 9:03 AM, Chalsean said:

I believe they are going independent and continue to wait for ACC movement.  Nobody is moving out of MWC to join them because it financially makes no sense.  Now if Calford comes into play that would change the equation.

They'll lose all of those basketball credits and a substantial amount of money that they would have earned as the PAC 12 though if they go independent right?

On 9/5/2024 at 6:35 PM, Rambouche said:

Just my anecdotal observation- but I don’t think CSU does too bad in the sports media pecking order in the Denver market…it’s the kind of place where the Broncos third string QB matters more (and gets more coverage) than anything else happening in sports as a whole by a wide margin, but CSU gets covered by Denver media well enough…football games will always get coverage on the local news, major daily has an assigned beat writer…WYO and AFA football pop up as well..I don’t think any of them are afterthoughts for Denver sports media world…if csu had managed to be good any time over the last decade, they would have been the lead story like all of the other teams in the region vying for attention after the Broncos…based solely on the sad pictures I see of SJSU home games- it looks like they are closer in local interest to the University of Northern Colorado than the front range MWC trio….

When Sonny was doing his thing back in the day CSU got a lot more coverage locally I feel like.

On 9/5/2024 at 9:04 AM, jewelz4562000 said:

The mw fans are just angry and bitter. It's like being the 425lb virgin dude.  And you get kissed finally but then she rejects you and now you "don't want her."  So you just go back to pornhub marathons.  It's all evident this is obvious when you watch games at Nevada, New Mex, Hawaii, SJSU and they play in 90% empty stadiums or torn down high schools.

I think a lot of fans view them as peers, so they don't care if they come or go.  Would they help the MW?  Absolutely.  Would their addition mean huge things for the MW?  Nope. 

They are entering uncharted territory going from large budgets and getting recruits off of a brand they are no longer part of.  So I think a lot of people are also curious to see how they react to their new reality and don't want to give them any perceived special treatment.  I personally think they are smart to continue to do their due diligence.  They don't need to make a decision just yet.  

The MW was doing its thing before last year and it will continue to do so, with or without those two schools is more of the attitude I see.  OSU and WSU weren't going to dramatically change the MW.  The current MW schools and all other G5 schools (including OSU and WSU) are pretty much screwed anyway in comparison to the P4.  

On 9/4/2024 at 11:42 PM, UofMTigers said:

playing the ACC leftovers like GTech, Wake, BC, Cuse, Pitt, etc sounds WAY better than FAU, UAB, UNT, UTSA, UNCC, etc

 

Is the heat going to come down hard on Penny?

On 9/4/2024 at 11:42 PM, UofMTigers said:

playing the ACC leftovers like GTech, Wake, BC, Cuse, Pitt, etc sounds WAY better than FAU, UAB, UNT, UTSA, UNCC, etc

 

1000%.  It would be a great move for Memphis if the Big 12 is off the table.  

On 9/4/2024 at 8:13 PM, UofMTigers said:

I sure hope Memphis finds a lifeboat out of this mess. Even a weakened ACC would be better from a money, exposure, and competition standpoint IMHO.

You guys will get a ticket when the ACC loses teams.  I think you guys and USF will probably be the first calls.  I think it will be tough for WSU and OSU.  I doubt a bunch of East Coast schools want to stretch too far West into Oregon and Washington.  I don't think the other schools probably care about Stanford and Cal.  

Their next TV deal will go down.  Why drag out travel for everyone else just to help Cal and Stanford?

On 9/4/2024 at 8:27 PM, utgrizfan said:

As a Montana fan the MWC getting poached is the only feasible way we have a chance to move up so in that regard, yes I'd like to see it happen. I'd love to be playing games vs Nevada, USU, Wyoming, etc.

However I'm also realistic, there is a chance that no FCS schools will be called up or others would be picked ahead of us due to market, location, etc. I also still think that a full reverse merger with the entire MWC is the most likely scenario and would make the most sense, however the PAC2 seem hellbent on keeping up the reputation of making questionable decisions.

Do you think the new $5 million entry fee to FBS would be a deterrent to any Montana schools moving up?  Delaware just paid it I believe.  

On 9/4/2024 at 8:13 PM, Rosegreen said:

Depends on the footprint of the conference. I’d like to know what CW is paying the pac2, rumor is 7 million per school but I think it’s lower than that. The commish even stated the monies from the previous pac schools will help the current athletic budgets. Even so, they are smart to do business with CW which is looking to expand their sports coverage portfolio. 
 

The only thing that’s obvious or concrete is that a merger is not in the cards. I don’t think either school can afford it. 

I am curious what they net out of that after production costs since they are producing and selling the games to CW.  

On 9/4/2024 at 7:16 PM, EvilPoke said:

$34M x 6 = $204M

$10 x 6 = $60M or so

$264 million to bring along 6 teams, huh?

(Keep in mind that as a school, you're not only giving up $34M, you're also losing out on a $44M payday from the defectors.)

They would need their new conference by 2026.  So if they gave notice before June 2025 then they would only pay $17 million though right?

On 9/4/2024 at 5:21 PM, Rosegreen said:

It’s not just MW schools. Again the conference as a whole isn’t enough otherwise we’d have a better tv deal. Each school makes 3-5 million from the media deal. Absolute peanuts compared to what OSU and Wazzu are used to. 
 

There is no way they are merging with the MW. They are looking to get into big markets, and I’m betting they are strategizing with potential tv partners to make it happen. 
 

The mountain west is just a stopgap. An expensive one but it bought the two schools some time to map out a rebuild. 

What do you think the ceiling of a TV deal is for a restructured PAC 12?  $10-$15 million?

On 9/4/2024 at 4:23 PM, utgrizfan said:

I agree, however as pointed out by a few people the MWC schools are not united, past history shows Boise and SDSU in particular have tried to leave multiple times. If an opportunity for a smaller Conference came calling meaning bigger shares + the chance of being considered the beat of the rest and getting an advantage for the CFP spot they would take it. All depends if the TV people think it would be more valuable and there is an argument for it.

OSU: P5 Lite

Wazzu: P5 Lite

Boise: Brand Recognition, ESPN loves them.

SDSU: Market

Fresno: Market, upper MWC football school

UNLV: Market, recent upswing in competitiveness

CSU: Market, potential to be good

Then the argument for a 6th MWC school could be made for a few teams, but I like Hawaii as Football only (Hawaii clause, new Market and TZ, lock up late slot, cheaper maybe?) paired with Gonzaga to boost Basketball. 

I could see where people would think a Conference like this would generate more $$/interest from the TV overlords. Also if they added a few AAC schools (UTSA and UNT) down the road or initially you'd have a new TZ and several solid TV Markets to encourage a better TV deal:

Seattle (13th), Portland (23rd), San Diego (30th), Fresno (54th), Vegas (40th), Denver (17th), Honolulu (68th), San Antonio (31st), DFW (5th)

*Boise State value is pure Brand*

I don't see Gonzaga giving up their power in the WCC to join that conference 

On 9/4/2024 at 3:51 PM, utgrizfan said:

Correct, so they would have to spend 62 Million to get 6 MWC teams, the other option is 4 MWC teams and 2 from the AAC which weirld enough might be more plausible then 6 MWC schools. The newer AAC additions won't be making full shares for a few years, the PAC2 could approach UTSA and UNT and offer full shares immediately. Would probably be:

OSU, Wazzu, SDSU, Boise, CSU, UNLV, UTSA, UNT

Stick with this for the initial TV deal then add more MWC schools down the road. 

That's a lot of money in fees for that conference configuration.  

On 9/4/2024 at 2:19 PM, Rosegreen said:

Not exactly, it’s ten million a school essentially which is why only a small number will be poached. Four schools being poached means 43 million dollars to MW and I doubt it’s all lump sum, probably prorated over a long period of time. The schools that leave aren’t responsible for the payments, it’s the PAC. 
 

Again, if they find a willing media partner, it can be done. 40 million is peanuts and if they can get the ACC scraps + Texas schools. Too easy. 

There is also the exit fees for any school that leaves the MW, which will probably be negotiated down from the amounts in writing, but something that needs to be considered.  

What if the ACC doesn't implode in time?

On 9/4/2024 at 2:06 PM, wolf from 73 said:

The Pac-2 will not be able to raid the MW unless they and any 6 teams from the MW are willing to pay well over $100 million. MW teams are locked-up with their exit fees and the Pac-2 are locked out with their poaching fees until Aug 2,2027. It's not going to happen                                                                                                                                       "With the scheduling alliance not extending to the 2025 season, those major poaching fees (outlined here) only extend toAug. 2, 2027 with the Pac-2 having until July 1, 2026 to get to eight members"                         

https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/reporters/whats-next-for-mountain-west-after-football-scheduling-alliance-with-pac-2-not-extended#

I wonder what the PAC 2 play is here?  Go Indy but forfeit things like the NCAA Tournament credits?  I know a merger is still on the table as well but the PAC 2 don't seem to have a a lot of options.  I don't see a Big 12 or ACC agreement of any sorts taking place.  

On 9/3/2024 at 6:45 PM, utgrizfan said:

The Dakota States admittedly are a wish pick of mine, realistically they probably wouldn't be considered for a MWC rebuild until after the new initial TV of the poached conference. UTEP and NMSU I have no doubt would want to rejoin their old WAC rivals and have a much easier travel situation to save $$. A more realistic scenario:

USU, Nevada, SJSU, WYO, AF, New Mexico, *NMSU, *UTEP, *Montana, *MSU, *Idaho, *Sac State 

A much more regional Conference (by Western Standards) and a pretty decent one IMO. In terms of move up fees the MWC flush with cash could pay half of all the teams move up fees (so in this case 10 million) and have the new schools pay off what they owe over the course of the initial TV deal, lesser shares initially, etc. They'd still be making more then they are now in FCS.

I would think Idaho would be pretty gun shy about a move back to FBS.  They seem to be doing well in the Big Sky.  That might change if the Montana's left but I don't think I have read even one article suggesting they should give FBS a go again.  

@VandalPride97 any thing to contribute here by chance?

On 9/3/2024 at 6:12 PM, nvspuds said:

I think that is true..However, it is still very expensive for FCS schools to move up and it is unlikely the remaining MW schools would want to split any of their windfall to grease the wheels for them.

It is an interesting question on what would happen.  The barrier to entry for FCS is larger than ever.  It takes a much bigger commitment for them to join in years past.  

I don't know if Texas schools would be interested in moving West when there are more eyeballs in the East.  

On 9/3/2024 at 4:11 PM, nvspuds said:

A whole lot of major assumptions here.  How do you know any of those FCS schools want to move up to a depleted MW..It cost more money to be at the FBS/G5 level than FCS.  Why would UTEP and NMSU want to leave  astable conference to move to the MW?  Wouldn't Air force, New Mexico and USU immediately look towards moving to the AAC.  NDSU and SDSU are far away.  I suspect, if the Pac 2 poaches 6 schools the MW would just fold up the tent.  There is zero financial benefit to two G5 conferences out west.

If the schools that have to leave pay exit fees and the PAC 2 has to pay upwards of $60 million, then they would probably try to make the MW work.

On 9/3/2024 at 12:36 PM, southfresno said:

Mountain West is not unified. Even if you are committed, there's no way to know if the others are. Classic prisoners dilemma. The result is that several of the schools will break off and join the PAC if they are invited. The PAC could really grease the wheel if they also are willing to pick up a lot of the fees and have a good media deal in hand. Then they would have the advantage.

What's your definition of a good media deal here?  I doubt the PAC 12 picks up much of anything because they will more than likely have to pay their own penalty to the MW for poaching teams.

On 9/2/2024 at 5:04 PM, SteedLaw said:

What it means is that the MWC has all the leverage now, the PAC-2 have none (as in zero).

They are already past the due date to schedule teams for 2025. Their ONLY option is to reverse merge or join the MWC. 

They could still try to build back up the PAC if they find enough teams willing.  They just need to decide soon though because you know it will be a drawn out legal battle over the MW teams exit fees.  

I could see SDSU and BSU willing to roll the dice, can they find others who are also willing to take the gamble?

On 9/2/2024 at 4:19 PM, Someone Else said:

I'll also mention this.  Is everyone in the MWC going to agree to opt-in on this House settlement issue?  If not, that may create problems for the stability of the conference.

I think everyone will, but we will see.  

The article also said this so it really went over every possible scenario.  I do think that the PAC 2 is doing everything they can to not merge though.  

Nor does the breakdown in talks rule out the possibility of a longer-term merger, in some form, between the Pac-12 and the Mountain West.

“Don’t rule out something for 2026 and beyond,” the source added.