I think they have my vote. Nevada had a bad loss but it was on the road. SDSU's loss was to Boise, although they had critical mistakes.
Losing at home to a team that recently moved up to FBS and having multiple +++++ ups when trying to take the lead or tie the game puts them over the top for me. Also their coach going for it on 4 and 19 from midfield with 4 mins left.