sactowndog

I expect we will hear from Tedford the usual.  It’s just another game, take it week by week.  Tedford excels in Belichek style press conferences. 

1 minute ago, Dogs4Me said:

After that BYU game, I wouldn’t be too confident if I was a donk fan.

I would feel more confident if Allison weren’t injured.

1 hour ago, TheTedfordTrain said:

Any word what happened to him? 

I think knee.  Happened in the first drive 

Allison injured against UNLV...  as important to our defense as Oliver to Houston. 

Jeff Allison on the sideline injured.  

If BYU were to come I would expect a number of conditions:

1) Thompson to be replaced

2) Boise deal renegotiated to what is should have been.   Split of BCS money stays.   

3) the Boise individual TV contract goes but all teams retain their third tier rights

4) the Boise 1.5M off the top gets converted to a true performance bonus.   500K for the football champ.  250K for each division winner. 250k to the top 2 regular season BBall finishers.   

I can can see BYU added in one of two scenarios:

1) Boise agrees to the above and moves west while BYU and North Texas join the east.   

2) Boise refuses and BYU and Boise switch places with Boise going independent. 

On 11/1/2018 at 11:12 PM, suralexander said:

Hard to say.  Personally I don't think the MWC even with BYU have much leverage to demand more. 

 

I think this is mistaken.  

Currently ESPN, Fox Sports1, and CBSSN have desire to fill the 7:30 pm time slot.   Today it’s fairly easy done with 4 options: Pac-12, BYU, Boise, MWC.   Assuming BYU came in I would assume it came with a renegotiation of the Boise deal.   That means you now have 2 options: PAC-12 and MWC.   The PAC has to reserve some games for the PAC-12 network or let it die.   That means a sharp shift in supply and demand for the MWC.   

8 hours ago, NorCalCoug said:

Can you back up that 15%-20%?  

Yep by the fact the across the country Congressman like Steve King in Iowa keep getting elected.  He’s one example of many.   Like it or not the Republican Party has a clear emerging white nationalist wing.   Their preferred candidates have won multiple primaries and in some cases general races.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/11/conservatives-need-to-draw-the-line-at-steve-king/

1 minute ago, NorCalCoug said:

Significant???  

Yeah I consider 15-20% significant.  And I live in Placer county and hear racist shit all the time so don’t tell me it doesn’t exist.  

9 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

I'll give an example.  If the teachers dressed up as a down syndrome child, or a Catholic Priest making a joke about molesting kids, it'd be similarly bad.    Some costumes are in poor taste and should not happen.

That said, I think we are better if we are quick to forgive people who admit they made a mistake.  Forgive them and drop it.

I would agree with this statement. But that doesn’t excuse the behaviour and not a surprise it happened in deep red Idaho. 

10 hours ago, NorCalCoug said:

Well certainly a significant portion of the Republican Party is.   

4 hours ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

Yeah, Trump played the MS-13 card before even asking whether anybody from El Salvador might be among what was at least originally entirely Hondurans.

Probably all the same people anyway as far as he's concerned.

+++++ing Trump paid these people to be in this caravan.   I never seen a more obvious false flag operation.   The man is a SOB. 

50 minutes ago, slappy said:

Most Folks that are around lines and line making could put a prettt accurate line on that game.  

Well if you use most of the predictive analytics they would have Fresno as favored.  But remember odds makers are not predicting favorites, they are trying to balance the take across both teams. 

12 hours ago, suralexander said:

Glad Bronco is finding success.  Loved him as a coach and would have liked to keep him.

Utah began their long road of success back in 1994 IMO.  I have watched them since then including the road game at KU in the 90's where they were up 14-0 before I even got in the stadium.  Loved seeing the Big8 fans shocked to see a WAC team obliterate them on their home turf.  Since then Utah has made great hiring decisions and invested in their football program.  Proud of what they have become and would love to see them in the Rose Bowl.

Utah St is looking really good and may win the MWC.  Not bad for a program that was nearly left out of the MWC.  My dad graduated from Utah St and I have always cheered them on. 

BSU has one of the winningest programs the past 25 years.  You might as well of put in there owned by Michigan. 

 

There is an old saying in that you should be careful of the company you keep.  The idea is that you may become like those you associate with.  Currently the only other independent programs in football are programs that have no conference offers.  UMass, Liberty, and NMSU.  Yes I know Notre Dame but they are pretty much an ACC school.  Army does have a invite to the AAC but is sitting on it from what I understand, however my point is that BYU is beginning to resemble NMSU in more and more ways. 

Perhaps BYU should become a farming university to both Utah and Utah St where if our junior and seniors are good enough they can transfer on to Utah or USU.  The rivalry with Utah is one sided and Utah completely owns BYU at football.  This is not going to change anytime soon and honestly I believe the Utah fans are becoming bored with the game.  Sure they love to pound on BYU but the drama is pretty well gone.  There is an expectation that Utah will win, the game will be close because Whittingham will not run up the score on a close friend.  If Bronco were there you could expect a blowout this year. 

It’s not good for the non PAC-12 west to lose a strong BYU.  Nor is it good for the MWC to have multiple packages available in the 7:30 pm time slot.   Ideally we would have one package with the stipulation that if you bid one game (Mountain Division) goes in the 4:00 Pacific time slot and one game in the Pacific time slot (West Division).  If we had only one package ESPN and CBSSports could fight who will have 7:30 content or force the Smack 12 to play all their games at 7:30. 

3 hours ago, kingpotato said:

It hasn't been as good as last year, for sure. The biggest difference being that they have given up multiple big plays. Last years team rarely gave up big plays. If they had limited the big plays like they did last year the numbers would be almost identical. They have also had way more injuries on that side of the ball. Pierce was leading the team in tackles before his season ending injury. Two time All MW player Moa has missed (essentially) the whole season. Horton has missed multiple games, as has Lui. Heck, against AFA when Durrant went out in the 2nd Quarter the Broncos were without their entire starting DL from that point on. I also felt that Nawahine and Kaniho would have stronger seasons than they have. LBs have been ok, but not as productive as I'd hoped. 

I think Vanderesh may have been more critical than people thought.  He covered a multitude of sins. 

20 hours ago, slappy said:

When it comes to placing teams in order from best to worst the spreads will show you what the pros think.  Polls are really not very accurate.  Follow the money, they don’t make lines on football games with mascots and fans in mind.  It is a business.   The Coaches poll is a fun little beauty contest. 

Right but their is no spread between Fresno and Houston or Fresno and USU.   so how does it relate

7 hours ago, Roy_McAvoy said:

The answer to this is easy. 

#1) Several of the computer rankings are also using last year's results as part of their algorithm. Hence Fresno being so much higher than USU. (Applies to Houston too). 

#2) Several of those rankings also don't account for margin of victory and will heavily emphasize SOS. USU & UCF have a weak SOS, but rankings aren't accounting for the fact that USU averages being up 26 points at halftime of every game. 

Not comparing Fresno versus USU.   Or Fresno to Houston for that matter.  

The question is almost universally mid majors have out performed their computer rankings.   That is true for both USU and Houston which would seem to invalidate your first point.    In fact, Houston has the largest spread which really is a negative correlation to your first point.   

I do think Margin of Victory factors into the equation but hard to argue it’s all of it as Fresno has routinely beat the spread. 

6 hours ago, slappy said:

The best way to evaluate teams is via the spread.  Let the pro’s do it.  It is there job.  And they are typically really good at it. 

How does the spread come in to play here?   It’s a completely different metric and purpose.  

45 minutes ago, Dogs4Me said:

I blame this all on a vast right coast conspiracy.

It’s actually fairly rare.  From what I have seen Fresno lacks a regional set of voters who push them forward.   

Truth is, despite the notion that P5 get an advantage by having the bigger names, the human polls tend to be biased in favor of the top G5 teams, whether from the AAC or MWC or anywhere else. Here are the rankings of the four ranked G5 teams in the AP poll, and in the Massey Composite:

UCF ........... 9 (AP) ....... 15 (MC)

Houston .... 17 (AP) ...... 33 (MC)

Utah State ... 18 (AP) ...... 27 (MC)

Fresno St .... 20 (AP) ...... 18 (MC)

Notice that of the four AP-ranked G5 teams, three of them are significantly over-rated compared to what the computers say, UCF +6, Houston + 16, and Utah State +9. Only Fresno is under-rated, by -2.
 

anyone want to speculate as to why on the above statement? 

1 hour ago, retrofade said:

I'm gathering all of the AP Poll ballots that have been made public by writers so far... as they pertain to MWC teams and other G5s.

Brett McMurphy (Stadium)

12 - UCF
17 - Utah State
18 - Fresno State
21 - Houston
24 - UAB
25 - Army

Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News)

13 - UCF
20 - Houston
25 - Utah State

Matt Baker (Tampa Bay Times)

  8 - UCF
16 - Fresno State
21 - Houston
22 - Utah State

Chris Murray (Reno Gazette-Journal)

  9 - UCF
18 - Houston
19 - Utah State
20 - Fresno State
24 - Cincinnati

Keith Sargeant (NJ Star-Ledger)

  7 - UCF
19 - Utah State
20 - Fresno State
21 - Houston

Brandon Marcello (247Sports)

  9 - UCF
17 - Houston
19 - Utah State
22 - Fresno State
24 - Georgia Southern
25 - UAB

Kellis Robinett (Wichita Eagle)

  9 - UCF
17 - Utah State
22 - Fresno State
23 - Houston
24 - UAB

 

My guess is that we'll see Utah State come in around 20, Fresno State just behind them. The real question is whether Houston ends up ahead or behind of the MWC teams. 

Notice how Wilner, the PAC-12 stooge, had largest gap between Houston and the MWC schools and the only one with Fresno not ranked.   Coincidence?  I think not. 

3 minutes ago, callen said:

 You can tell that neither Fresno, USU, nor Houston are used to this ranking thing. The first time they get ranked this year, and it's like 5 year old kids fighting over whose father has the better job. Boise is the only ones who are used to it. They are the ones saying that we need to let it play out more. 

No one is saying that fact.  We just find the massive jump interesting and those familiar with CA’s dirty underhanded politics from the UC’s suspicious. 

1 minute ago, Spot50B said:

You are underestimating Ed Oliver.  He's twice as good as last year.  He kept the Red Raiders in check.  They only got 605 passing yards...

Haha....  too bad Muti is out and doesn’t get to kick the snot out of Oliver again. 

21 minutes ago, cardrater said:

The MWC will have a chance to climb if Fresno and USU win out. Would set up for a nice Champ game. UCF still has to go through the best of the AAC . 

If UCF wins out then in my opinion they deserve to go.   

The gap between Houston and Fresno is more interesting as all the computer rankings have Fresno higher than Houston.  In many cases, Fresno is twice as high as Houston.   Essentially the same Fresno team beat essentially the same Houston team in last years bowl.  

1 hour ago, TheTedfordTrain said:

Houston 17 is a joke. More proof these voters aren’t actually watching the games. 

Want to bet no PAC-12 coach voted for Fresno and they all probably pushed up Houston.   The PAC-12 is struggling for relevance and the last thing they want is a MWC team from one of their states in the access bowl.   

The SEC and ACC have no such concerns.