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HawaiiMongoose

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  1. I wouldn't overlook the possibility that GCU is only flirting with the MWC as a negotiating ploy to pressure the WCC to give them back a big chunk of the $16 million they paid to get their WCC invitation. After all, GCU isn't just a school. It's a business.
  2. Confirmed by the Hawaii AD. And the cherry on top: no more travel subsidies! https://www.staradvertiser.com/2024/10/14/sports/sports-breaking/most-of-uhs-non-football-sports-will-join-mountain-west/
  3. Looks like Hawaii is coming aboard as a full MWC member:
  4. This is fascinating. Apparently the MWC is just as committed as the Pac to expanding eastward for more television properties in new time zones, probably at the behest of potential TV partners. The difference is that the MWC is targeting properties that not only play decent football but also don't face big obstacles to pulling the trigger and may actually be obtainable. Gloria is playing chess here. How will the Pac respond?
  5. This didn't age well. You were absolutely right about talks going on. Even before the MWC offered the big bucks to UNLV and Air Force, the Hawaii AD and Honolulu mayor had commenced discussions with the Pac behind the scenes, and the Pac was reportedly at least willing to talk about the possibility of a Hawaii invitation. Those talks heated up in the 24 hours after news surfaced of the UNLV and Air Force payout offers. But what neither you nor any Hawaii fans knew or expected was that Hawaii's president was dead set on staying committed to the MWC. For whatever combination of reasons -- risk aversion, financial considerations, personal principles, relationships with other MWC presidents and Gloria -- soon-to-retire UH president David Lassner shut down Hawaii's talks with the Pac, and we signed the binding MWC agreement shortly thereafter. Hawaii fans were initially divided about the decision and there was a lot of criticism of Lassner on the Hawaii message board, but that's settled down. I think our fan base has come to realize that what we need more than anything is time and money to get our stadium built and our act together on the field, and the best way to achieve that will be to get paid $7 million to stay in a stabilized MWC rather than spend $18 million to get out of it. (I don't know why our exit fee turns out to be the full $18 million rather than the $3.5 million reported in the Honolulu newspaper this week, but the AD confirmed the higher number.) Good luck to USU in the Pac. Hope you win championships there and frustrate the dickens out of OSU and WSU.
  6. That was the smartest move from Day One. Which is why it was doomed to never happen, LOL.
  7. Wow, now things are going to get REALLY interesting. Air Force has decided it wants a piece of that $200 million.
  8. Oh, of course they will. But now we can afford better lawyers.
  9. Cool. Another $13.5 million to line the left-behinds' pockets.
  10. This is so absurd. When all is said and done, the Pac and its new MWC imports will be spending over $200 million between them to part ways with Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada, Wyoming, and New Mexico. And in exchange, because they failed to skim the cream from AAC, they'll land a media deal that might pay each school $2 million more per year than what it probably would have earned in the reverse merger scenario. After Air Force flies off to the AAC, the four left-behinds will be sitting on $50 million each. I'm not sure whether to be upset or yell hallelujah.
  11. This may be possible but it's extremely unlikely. Didn't the defectors already sign onto the new Pac GOR? If so they're all in, for better or worse, because it would cost them a fortune to circle back.
  12. I suspect we haven't heard anything for two reasons. First, unlike the six-Pac, the MWC may have decided it would be best not to publicize its target schools because once that information becomes public there's a risk of further undermining the conference's reputation (and by extension its bargaining position) if any of the targets decline to join. Second, the FCS "Big 4" are probably doing the smart thing and declining to make any commitments to the MWC until they see how the Pac expansion shakes out and what schools will be left in the MWC. The bottom line is that the Pac is now higher on the food chain than the MWC and will therefore eat first. We'll just have to be patient and wait our turn.
  13. Here's the latest from Chris Vannini at The Athletic, who's got more and better conference realignment contacts than probably anyone else in the media: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5776229/2024/09/18/pac-12-aac-mountain-west-realignment/ The article is behind a paywall but here are some highlights: Having created some momentum, the Pac-12 is on to Step 2 in its effort to create a Best of the Rest conference. Having grabbed the top of the Mountain West, it wants the top of the American Athletic Conference, and it wants to do it as soon as possible in order to begin real conversations with prospective TV partners. (The league needs at least eight members by July 1, 2026.) --- Multiple sources briefed on the league’s thinking tell The Athletic that Memphis and Tulane are the Pac-12’s top targets. While conversations are being had, it’s not clear the two are sold yet on the league’s speculative plan. ... UTSA, North Texas, South Florida and Texas State are among the other central/eastern options the Pac-12 is looking into, with UTSA considered the favorite among the group. Getting into Texas is especially important for certain Pac-12 schools, and each prospective member has its own selling point. --- Back west, UNLV was left out of the initial Mountain West move. Rebels football is having its most (and only) success in decades, now ranked in a major poll for the first time, but the question is whether the school has enough support and investment that will continue past this moment in time. The belief is that UNLV can ultimately split from fellow university system member Nevada for a conference move if needed. ... The Pac-12’s availability as an option for UNLV and Air Force is more likely if the conference strikes out on its eastern swing attempts. --- What the Pac-12 is selling these schools is still an unknown commodity. While popular college sports valuation consultant Navigate can project numbers, the conference is not working off a normal media rights deal. The league will have to go to market to figure out exactly what it is worth. Some sources familiar with the league’s thinking hope to land somewhere between $10 to $15 million per school per year, while other sources call that number premature and say it depends on who else joins. --- The estimated $111 million the Pac-12 stands to owe the Mountain West ($17 million in exit fees for each school, plus $43 million in poaching fees from the Pac-12/MW scheduling agreement) could become a point of contention. Some sources around the situation believe the Pac-12 will try to negotiate that number down in some way, while others are dubious it can be done. AAC defections would also owe exit fees likely in the tens of millions of dollars. While the Pac-12 can use its estimated $250 million war chest to fill in gaps, that money won’t last forever. Around $65 million was initially earmarked for rebuilding, with the rest going to operations. --- Barnes said Saturday that the six Pac-12 schools have signed a “long-term” grant of rights to lock themselves together. What they’re locked into remains to be seen. That unknown is what has AAC schools cautious about making a jump. But if one or two does, that would increase pressure on another to not be left behind. “People are being very calculated and want more information,” one AAC administrator said. --- Down to eight football-playing members, the Mountain West is still assessing its next steps — most notably, how much money it can expect to receive from the Pac-12. But with schools like UNLV and Air Force still eyeing moves, it’s a precarious situation. Sources familiar with discussions believe UTEP and Texas State are potential targets, as FBS members who wouldn’t have to make a transition. Sam Houston might be an option, too. New Mexico State is in the region, but the school is going through a presidential search, and New Mexico may not favor adding the Aggies. FCS Tarleton, located in Stephenville, is another potential Texas option. The school just recently completed its transition from Division II but is growing rapidly and has a lot of money at its disposal. The question is what kind of Mountain West these potential additional schools would be walking into. Texas State likely prefers the Sun Belt where it sits (or a possible future AAC invite), while Conference USA has a grant of rights that makes an exit fee larger, the only G5 league with such an agreement. “If (these) eight can stay together and we can add some teams, we can really be a good league,” Wyoming athletic director Tom Burman told in-house media last Friday. “If (the Pac-12 can’t add AAC schools), it’s likely they’re going to circle back to the Mountain West, and we could lose an additional member or two members. So that’s why expansion is very, very important.”
  14. NIU is pretty far outside Chicago and doesn't do much to deliver that market. I think the real prizes for the Pac are Memphis and Tulane. The logical ninth member would be UTSA, which would help build a geographic bridge to those two, is on the rise in football, and would deliver San Antonio which is ranked as the nation's 24th largest metro area and 37th largest TV market (not sure why there's a difference but links to the lists are below). https://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area
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