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SparkysDad

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  1. He just needs to create a defense that he personally can't read...which of course, would be impossible! #ChuckNorris
  2. That's not how it works. Not saying that $6-$8 million couldn't happen, but you don't ask your boss for a raise because you have a high house payment...you ask for a raise based on the value you bring to the table for the company. I do think that the AAC payout per team will significantly outpace that of the MWC, just based on the value of the larger audience the AAC brings to ESPN. JMHO, but I'd guess $4-$5 million for the top end. The "free market waters" aren't covered in extra floating cash (see Disney's financially-stalling ESPN as the primary example). My guess is that ESPN wants the AAC and will offer fair market value that other entities won't surpass.
  3. Cincinnati is a stretch and BYU I don't ever see getting an invite. To me, only UCF and Houston have realistic shots at being promoted to a P5 conference, most probably through a reconfiguration of the Big 12. Media market, geography and potential financial support for those two programs all meet the standard in my opinion. The real question will be whether any of the next rounds of conference TV negotiations "tip the cart" to get realignment non-hypothetically rolling.
  4. Appreciate the logic in your argument. While I somewhat agree, cutting veteran high-paid talent and NOT replacing them may be a change of focus, but it's still IMHO more directly related to cost-cutting than an epiphany of how their new business model should look in a changing media landscape. I further agree that they overpaid for their rights fees and at some point will have to find additional savings there. ESPN may be ramping up their own digital platforms, but when you still have to have cable and/or satellite to access all but their lowest tier streaming, many (me being one!) will find other platforms that don't mandate needing outdated technology to access, so that those specific and growing customers (like me!) are truly and completely "cutting the cord".
  5. The "live sports broadcast" focus may be part of the reason, but the move to cut highly paid veterans and replace them with newbies is a very common expense saving move in a lot of industries. Tenured teachers tempted with early retirement payouts, as an example...you're paying your 20+ year experienced math teacher with a Masters Degree around $60K when you can downgrade the educational experience for your students by bringing in a recent college grad for $30K!
  6. If BYU continues on their lackluster performance path, ESPN will realize that they can insert any west-of-the-Mississippi U.S. D1 team against USC or Tennessee and not have to have a special contract. At some point, ESPN will realize that the value to their network of a USC vs. BYU matchup = a USC vs. Will Work for Less University pairing. JMHO, but I don't think BYU is in a strong negotiating position for 2019...
  7. The bubble will burst at some point. In the past 3-4 years, ESPN has been a financial anchor for Disney (at least in terms of historical revenue growth comparisons). ESPN's response has been to dispose of all their high-priced veteran talent to cut costs. At some point, they'll need to reduce broadcast rights payments as more and more of their audience converts to digital options. I'm pessimistic about the AAC's and the MWC's upcoming negotiations. At some point down the road, I'd expect the true power players (upper echelon P5 programs -- think Ohio State, Texas, USC,etc.) will realize their individual value is much higher than their share of conference payout and will begin to "cut out the middleman" and stream a significant portion of their games through some form of a subscription-based model. The Media Players, like ESPN, will also realize that paying $30 million per year for the broadcast rights to Oregon State isn't a value deal!
  8. I'm a big believer in future football success predicated on the experience of the offensive line. While I don't think breaking in a new QB at Florida State is going to generate a win next year, Boise State offense should be better overall. The right side of the line last year was consistently horrendous! Another year of experience and they'll be consistently worse than average?
  9. So they actually lost to Boise State, Utah State and probably would've lost to Fresno in football...and no one else in the conference beats them? Maybe Top 4 in football last year...and by Top 4 I mean 4th.
  10. Coincidence? I don't think so! The struggles in football are due to regularly competing against much better athletes, a front-loaded season against these much better athletes and then trying to salvage the "winning attitude" of the program as they hit Cupcake Boulevard late in the season with not much to play for. On top of that (and this is where it's more my opinion than the at least logical reasoning above) I personally don't think they have the coaches to somewhat nullify the athletic advantage most P5 teams and a few G5 teams have over them. Again, JMHO, but Independence has made worse BYU's difficult recruiting circumstances. Losing Bronco Mendenhall to me was a mistake. They are still BYU, but aren't the "winning" BYU of their MWC glory days...and a lot of the high-level Mormon kids are going elsewhere for a variety of reasons.
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