[SteveAztec]

Man ohhh man. If the Aztecs could have only won that game at New Mexico.....But that one is over.

Three teams tied for first with 2 losses.

The Aztecs sit in 4th place with 4 losses.....BUT....

The Aztecs have TCU, Air Force, and BYU on the road.

The Aztecs have UNLV, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado State at home.

Yes, the Aztecs are an unpredictable team this season....And that is actually my exact point.

I think the Aztecs season all comes down to the UNLV game at home. If the Aztecs win that game, they could very well go (even if they lose at BYU).....23-8 for the season going into th MWC......and 11-5 in conf.

If this happens (and it very well could), the Aztecs would probably finish 3rd in conf. or at the worst a tie for 3rd. Maybe in a tie for 2nd. This would change everybodys thoughts (MWC and NCAA Tourney Committe) on how many teams and which teams would get an invite from the MWC.

I will tell you this....The MWC Tourney is going to be wild this year.

Just something to think about.

[DefendTheStreak]

SDSU is going to need 1 of 2 things to happen to get into the NCAA's

1. Win out and lose in the conference finals, but one of the other top 3 teams must be the winner of the MWC Tournament. That will put you at what 26-8? That's enough and depending what happens to the rest of us we could sneak 4 into the NCAA's. You can't have CSU or Utah winning the tournament or someone out.

2. Lose a smattering of games the rest of the way and then win the end of year tournament. The old "3 days in March" routine.

[sdsuphilip1]

DefendTheStreak, on 09 February 2010 - 12:17 AM, said:

SDSU is going to need 1 of 2 things to happen to get into the NCAA's

1. Win out and lose in the conference finals, but one of the other top 3 teams must be the winner of the MWC Tournament. That will put you at what 26-8? That's enough and depending what happens to the rest of us we could sneak 4 into the NCAA's. You can't have CSU or Utah winning the tournament or someone out.

2. Lose a smattering of games the rest of the way and then win the end of year tournament. The old "3 days in March" routine.

Kind of agree people that think we can go 11-5 in conference with a split against UNM and UNLV, along with UA as only good wins you are delusional, have to win in the Marriot and finish 12-4 in conference, win 1 round and we might still get in but win 2 and I think we are pretty much a lock unless we lose to CSU or something like that. So Aztecs have to win at least 8 in a row for shot at large but seeing how much this team is improving they definitely can win the MWC tourney

[Mars]

SteveAztec, on 09 February 2010 - 12:04 AM, said:

The Aztecs have TCU, Air Force, and BYU on the road. The Aztecs have UNLV, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado State at home... I think the Aztecs season all comes down to the UNLV game at home. If the Aztecs win that game, they could very well go (even if they lose at BYU)... 23-8 for the season going into th MWC... and 11-5 in conf. If this happens (and it very well could), the Aztecs would probably finish 3rd in conf. or at the worst a tie for 3rd. Maybe in a tie for 2nd. This would change everybodys thoughts (MWC and NCAA Tourney Committe) on how many teams and which teams would get an invite from the MWC...

Some thoughts:

BYU seems to have an easier remaining schedule. Our toughest road game remaining is at CSU (or at Utah, for the rivalry's sake). That can't compare to a road game at BYU.

BYU is favored to win all of their games left. UNLV should be favored to lose at SDSU, and New Mexico should be favored to lose at UNLV and BYU. SDSU should be favored to lose at BYU. That gives you BYU with 2 MWC losses, UNLV with 3, New Mexico with 4, and SDSU with 5. That's a long shot from 2nd or 3rd place. Anything could happen, but that's the simple "lose to the Top 4 on the road" mentality.

[Italics]

SDSU will finish 4th in the conference, I can almost guarantee that.

The Aztecs only hope at a tourney invite would be to win the conference tourney.

[DreadLocksed Lobo]

I think the team who will decide the regular season champion may very well be Wyoming. They get shots at SDS and bYu in Laramie. Go Pokes!
bYu isn't bullet proof and have games at Wyoming, at CSU and at Utah remaining, as well as at home against SDS and New Mexico. I don't see them winning all of those games anymore.
UNLV has UNM at home, then at SDS, at Utah with Wyoming in Vegas to end it, but they're done with bYu so they may have the easiest finish.
SDS has Wyoming, UNLV and Utah at home, but then they're at bYu.
UNM is at UNLV, at Utah and at bYu, clearly the toughest finish.

The regular season winner may very well have 4 losses, more than likely only 3 and again there may very well be a tie at 13-3(which I called in the first week). With the records bYu, UNLV and UNM have, I think all 3 of those are locks for the prom. I wouldn't mind at all seeing SDS win the tournament, getting 4 teams in the big dance.

[SteveAztec]

DreadLocksed Lobo, on 09 February 2010 - 08:20 AM, said:

I think the team who will decide the regular season champion may very well be Wyoming. They get shots at SDS and bYu in Laramie. Go Pokes!
bYu isn't bullet proof and have games at Wyoming, at CSU and at Utah remaining, as well as at home against SDS and New Mexico. I don't see them winning all of those games anymore.
UNLV has UNM at home, then at SDS, at Utah with Wyoming in Vegas to end it, but they're done with bYu so they may have the easiest finish.
SDS has Wyoming, UNLV and Utah at home, but then they're at bYu.
UNM is at UNLV, at Utah and at bYu, clearly the toughest finish.

The regular season winner may very well have 4 losses, more than likely only 3 and again there may very well be a tie at 13-3(which I called in the first week). With the records bYu, UNLV and UNM have, I think all 3 of those are locks for the prom. I wouldn't mind at all seeing SDS win the tournament, getting 4 teams in the big dance.

Just one note on your post. The Aztecs have already played at Wyoming earlier and lost.

[NorCalCoug]

Aztecs have 4 conference losses. You're out of the conference hunt barring major meltdowns by the 3 ahead of you. JMHO....

[SteveAztec]

NorCalCoug, on 09 February 2010 - 09:27 AM, said:

Aztecs have 4 conference losses. You're out of the conference hunt barring major meltdowns by the 3 ahead of you. JMHO....

Just for the record. My post didn't say anything about the Aztecs winning the conf. championship. Most NCAA talk right now, has the MWC with possibly getting in 3.

If the Aztecs finishs 3rd or a tie for 3rd (which is possible), they would have a decent shot.

For instance, if BYU won it, and UNLV ended up with 4 losses. In my scenario the Aztecs and New Mexico could end with 5 losses each.

Either way, it all comes down to the NCAA tourney for 2 of the top 4 teams in the conf.

[DreadLocksed Lobo]

SteveAztec, on 09 February 2010 - 09:20 AM, said:

Just one note on your post. The Aztecs have already played at Wyoming earlier and lost.

Which is why I said SDS has Wyoming AT HOME. Duh!

[AndreAztec]

DreadLocksed Lobo, on 09 February 2010 - 08:20 AM, said:

I think the team who will decide the regular season champion may very well be Wyoming. They get shots at SDS and bYu in Laramie. Go Pokes!

In response to the post above this one, the second sentence in the quoted post is confusing. You make it sound like Wyoming plays both SDSU and Byu in Laramie

[Jimmer49]

DreadLocksed Lobo, on 09 February 2010 - 08:20 AM, said:

bYu isn't bullet proof and have games at Wyoming, at CSU and at Utah remaining, as well as at home against SDS and New Mexico. I don't see them winning all of those games anymore.

Anymore?

Has BYU's loss at UNLV, really changed your perception of BYU that much? To steal from KDog on Cougarboard's analysis, Top 25 RPI teams have lost 16 home games this year, and not a single one of those losses was to a team worse than #51 in the RPI.

Anyone who's less impressed by BYU because they lost at UNLV is off their rocker. It's very difficult to beat top teams on their home court. Not an excuse, just a fact. That same UNLV team that looked much better than BYU on Saturday, lost @ BYU about a month ago.

As for the Cougars' scheuld - BYU beat SDSU on the road, and played NM very close at the Pit. There's no guarantees, but I've got to assume the Cougs will be heavy favorites against those 2 teams at home. And if you had 4 remaining road games (excluding AFA) could you pick a better slate than CSU, Wyoming, Utah, and TCU. Again, the road is always a challenge, but BYU beat those teams by an average of 20+ at home, and with the exception of Utah, those teams will likely be somewhat just preparing themselves for the MWC tournament.

That said, BYU winning out vs losing a game the rest of the way is probably a coin flip, but I like our chances. Chances of BYU losing more than 1 the rest of the way are extremely slim, making NM/UNLV tomorrow night, huge for the conference race.

I see BYU finishing 29-3, no worse than 29-4.

(Sorry for hijacking this thread with Cougar propaganda - I just get tired of the overreaction to road losses in college basketball).

[Jimmer49]

AndreAztec, on 09 February 2010 - 12:07 PM, said:

In response to the post above this one, the second sentence in the quoted post is confusing. You make it sound like Wyoming plays both SDSU and Byu in Laramie

That's how I read it as well, but apparently that's not what he meant.

[AztecBill]

No question that BYU has the schedule advantage. They have already played at SDSU, at UNLV, and at UNM. Each of the other top 4 have to play on the road at at least one of the top 4.

UNLV at SDSU
UNM at UNLV
UNM at BYU
SDSU at BYU

UNM has the worst schedule playing at UNLV and at BYU.

UNLV will grab the schedule advantage if they beat UNM at home and SDSU on the road this week.
--------------------------------------------------------
If SDSU loses only at BYU and also loses in the MWC tournament finals, they will have an RPI around #28. That should be enough for an at large. They will have 3 wins over ranked MWC teams.
--------------------------------------------------------
Speaking of RPI. The MWC is about to overtake the A-10 in average RPI.
It will happen because the A-10's OOC win percentage is 61% while the MWC's OOC win percentage is 67%.
OOC win percentage determines how conference play effects the conferences average RPI.

[Mars]

Jimmer49, on 09 February 2010 - 01:08 PM, said:

BYU beat SDSU on the road, and played NM very close at the Pit. There's no guarantees, but I've got to assume the Cougs will be heavy favorites against those 2 teams at home.

Favored, but likely not heavy favorites. I could see a 3 point win over New Mexico, and a 5 point win over SDSU right now. Both close games that BYU pulls out with clutch free throw shooting at the very end.

[ToddL18]

If UNLV wins the next 3 they have best close out schedule, till then I think they are second.

[sdsuphilip1]

SDSU always seems to play BYU tough in Marriot but never seems to win there.

[SteveAztec]

AztecBill, on 09 February 2010 - 06:32 PM, said:

No question that BYU has the schedule advantage. They have already played at SDSU, at UNLV, and at UNM. Each of the other top 4 have to play on the road at at least one of the top 4.

UNLV at SDSU
UNM at UNLV
UNM at BYU
SDSU at BYU

UNM has the worst schedule playing at UNLV and at BYU.

UNLV will grab the schedule advantage if they beat UNM at home and SDSU on the road this week.
--------------------------------------------------------
If SDSU loses only at BYU and also loses in the MWC tournament finals, they will have an RPI around #28. That should be enough for an at large. They will have 3 wins over ranked MWC teams.
--------------------------------------------------------
Speaking of RPI. The MWC is about to overtake the A-10 in average RPI.
It will happen because the A-10's OOC win percentage is 61% while the MWC's OOC win percentage is 67%.
OOC win percentage determines how conference play effects the conferences average RPI.

I still think BYU is going to win the conf., so my comments in the first post of the thread should have left BYU out.

[Mountain]

DreadLocksed Lobo, on 09 February 2010 - 08:20 AM, said:

I think the team who will decide the regular season champion may very well be Wyoming. They get shots at SDS and bYu in Laramie. Go Pokes!
bYu isn't bullet proof and have games at Wyoming, at CSU and at Utah remaining, as well as at home against SDS and New Mexico. I don't see them winning all of those games anymore.
UNLV has UNM at home, then at SDS, at Utah with Wyoming in Vegas to end it, but they're done with bYu so they may have the easiest finish.
SDS has Wyoming, UNLV and Utah at home, but then they're at bYu.
UNM is at UNLV, at Utah and at bYu, clearly the toughest finish.

The regular season winner may very well have 4 losses, more than likely only 3 and again there may very well be a tie at 13-3(which I called in the first week). With the records bYu, UNLV and UNM have, I think all 3 of those are locks for the prom. I wouldn't mind at all seeing SDS win the tournament, getting 4 teams in the big dance.

You said they(Wyoming) get shots at SDS and BYU in Laramie.

You said they(