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HawaiiMongoose

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  1. I've been keeping an eye on Texas State a long time and agree they have a lot of potential. Moreover they have a good young football coach in G.J. Kinne, who was UH's offensive coordinator in 2020 (one of the few strong performers on Todd Graham's staff) and subsequently engineered surprisingly fast turnarounds at both UIW and Texas State. If it weren't possible to attract any AAC schools into an expanded MWC, I think a UTEP + Texas State pairing would be the best fallback option.
  2. I came close to including the Montanas in my suggested list of expansion targets. I actually like them as geographically sensible additions to the MWC. They fit institutionally, they have a good rivalry going and they fill their stadiums. However they're in a sparsely populated market and so adding them is unlikely to help the conference increase its per-member TV revenue.
  3. If the conference was being really ambitious the targets would be UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Rice, Memphis, and Tulane. That would create a strong 20-member G5 superconference with two conference-sized divisions. East: Wyoming, CSU, Air Force, New Mexico, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Rice, Memphis, Tulane West: WSU, OSU, Boise State, Utah State, Nevada, UNLV, SJSU, Fresno State, SDSU, Hawaii There would be no crossover competition in football. The two division champions would play for the conference title in what would effectively be a play-in game to the CFP most seasons. In non-football sports there would be very limited crossover competition, which would minimize travel costs. But to your point, it would depend on the new TV deal. Some network would need to buy into the concept and be willing to pay out at least $8 million per school per year. That’s probably a reach given all the unknowns in the current environment.
  4. To paraphrase Simon & Garfunkel, a man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.
  5. That would make travel cost and time even less of an issue. In a 16- or 18-member MWC, UH could play most of its basketball games and volleyball matches in an 8- or 9-member western division and never have to make more than one road trip per season east of the Rockies. Moreover MWC schools east of the Rockies would each have to travel to UH only once every four or five seasons.
  6. A Warbow says, that's a correct description of the arrangement. However the annual payout from PPV to UH no longer exceeds the average MWC TV payout. The past few years the PPV payout has been a bit over $3 million whereas the MWC TV payout per school has been around $4 million. Therefore UH has been receiving a small equalization payment from the MWC of less than $1 million. UH also receives roughly $1.5 million in CFP money annually from the MWC, so including that the total amount UH is earning annually from PPV and the MWC combined is between $5 million and $6 million. Also while it's true that UH PPV games aren't televised on the Mainland, they are streamed for free, albeit on the Team1 Sports app which only works on smartphones and tablets.
  7. Under the terms of the Pac's recent scheduling agreement with the MWC, if the Pac opts to rebuild with selected MWC schools rather than inviting all 12 to join, and this takes place within two years of the end of the two-year scheduling agreement (i.e. any time before the end of the 2027 season), the Pac would have to pay the MWC an escalating "termination fee" for each MWC school it poached. https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2024/01/cost-of-rebuilding-pac-12-using-mountain-west-schools-could-exceed-50-million-in-fees.html This is the termination fee schedule: Accepting MW Member Institution #1: $10,000,000 ($10,000,000 aggregate) Accepting MW Member Institution #2: $10,500,000 ($20,500,000 aggregate) Accepting MW Member Institution #3: $11,000,000 ($31,500,000 aggregate) Accepting MW Member Institution #4: $11,500,000 ($43,000,000 aggregate) Accepting MW Member Institution #5: $12,000,000 ($55,000,000 aggregate) Accepting MW Member Institution #6: $12,500,000 ($67,500,000 aggregate) Accepting MW Member Institution #7: $13,000,000 ($80,500,000 aggregate) Accepting MW Member Institution #8: $13,500,000 ($94,000,000 aggregate) Accepting MW Member Institution #9: $14,000,000 ($108,000,000 aggregate) Accepting MW Member Institution #10: $14,500,000 ($122,500,000 aggregate) Accepting MW Member Institution #11: $15,000,000 ($137,500,000 aggregate) Here's a link to the full text of the Pac-MWC scheduling agreement: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24356364/mwc-scheduling-agreement-01429274.pdf The termination fee is described in Article VII which is on pages 11-12. The specific fees above are listed in Schedule 7 on page 36. As noted in the previous post by Someone Else, these penalties would be in addition to the exit fees that each of the departing schools would owe the MWC. As most folks here already know, the exit fee per school would be roughly $17 million with more than one year's advance notice and roughly $34 million with less than one year's notice. So doing a bit of math... if the Pac were to poach six schools from the MWC and those six schools each gave at least a year's notice of their departure, the group of schools left behind would receive a total windfall of $67.5 million + (6 x $17 million) = $169.5 million. That would put them in a pretty good position to rebuild the conference.
  8. Not so. The final Massey composite ratings ranked the MWC as the 7th best conference last season, behind the P5 and the Sun Belt but ahead of the AAC, CUSA and MAC in that order. https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&d=20240108&c=1
  9. Nah, I think if the BWC had a realistic chance to land WSU and OSU for a couple of years, UH would have been all for it. Flight times from Honolulu to Oregon and Washington aren't much longer than from Honolulu to California. I know Hawaii fans would have loved to see WSU and OSU teams coming to town for conference games/matches. My guess is that WSU and OSU opted for the WCC over the BWC because the WCC is much stronger in basketball, and because it was a slam dunk travel-wise. Gonzaga is a perfect travel partner for WSU, and Portland is a perfect travel partner for OSU. Win-win.
  10. The travel concern is mutual. However if Hawaii were upgraded to a full member in conjunction with or following a merger/reverse merger with OSU and WSU, the conference would have 14 full members, which is enough to set up non-football scheduling in a way that minimizes travel between Hawaii and the Front Range schools. For example basketball could have a 19-game schedule, with everyone playing home-and-homes against six members and single games against the other seven. In that scenario the Mountain time zone teams would only have to travel to Hawaii every other year, and it could be a single-game trip rather than a two-game swing (no stopover coming or going).
  11. I agree on the timing, but let's keep in mind that this actually happening is far from a sure thing. All we're going on right now is an unconfirmed report from someone we think is an insider, who says UH has had discussions about this with the MWC and been told nothing will be decided until after things are worked out with OSU and WSU. The only reason this is news is that it appears the trial balloon wasn't immediately shot down by the MWC. It could easily be shot down later.
  12. A bill was approved a few weeks ago on the House side of the Hawaii legislature to kill funding for NASED (the New Aloha Stadium Entertainment District project). If enacted the bill would direct part of the $400 million in already approved NASED funding to Maui relief, but more than half -- reportedly $277 million -- would be given to UH to expand Ching Field into an FBS-sized stadium. However the bill is likely to die on the Senate side of the legislature, where there's more support for NASED. Apparently the Senate leadership is routing the bill for review and approval through five different committees. That's tantamount to killing it since there's little likelihood that all five committees will find time before the legislature adjourns on May 3rd to hold hearings on the bill and vote to move it to the Senate floor. I think the important takeaway here for the MWC is that whatever transpires, the Hawaii state government clearly understands that the current 15K erector-set stadium in Manoa isn't an acceptable long-term solution for UH football. At some point the program will have access to a decent facility, either as part of the NASED development or on campus.
  13. Don’t want to burst your bubble.
  14. The challenge for the WAC is that none of the schools you mention have expressed any interest in moving up to D1.
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