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Game Thread: Alabama Senate Race

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3 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

One peripheral winner tonight is Mitch McConnell who now won't have to deal with the circus that would have surrounded seating Moore in the US Senate - McConnell & GOP Senate leadership have to being relieved 

The Bannon wing is blaming him, but they hate him anyway. 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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52 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html?_r=0&referer=https://fivethirtyeight-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-one-county-in-america-that-voted-in-a-landslide-for-both-trump-and-obama/amp/?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQGCAEYASAB

In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout.

Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected.

To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was mainly among black voters. Even there, the scale of Democratic weakness has been exaggerated.

Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate.

Ok, So This Is The Shitty Part For You And I.

The truth is that Trump was on to something.  Movement conservatives and small business owners weren't going to carry the GOP to victory anymore.  And the GOP had become dysfunctional.  It had become a party whose base was blue collar whites, because the democrats had abandoned them.  But it was a party quoting Adam Smith to high school grads who had just lost their factory jobs to China.  Political parties are about winning elections, not debating societies.

The funny thing about reading the democrats in this thread talk about how we just have to win those people back, is that it sounds like republicans talking about winning Hispanic voters.  Yes, there are common interests, but blue collar whites have been drifting towards the GOP for decades now.  The difference with Trump is that he blatantly pandered to them, just like democrats do with blacks and hispanics.

So if the democrats try to woo them back, Trump will just pander more.  Again, just like democrats do when republicans try to reach out to hispanics.  And you can only pander so much, or you run into the issues the GOP leadership does in regards to immigration reform.  The dems will have base voters like misfit raising Cain if they start pandering too much to blue collar whites.

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7 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

GOPers could be in trouble if Bannon keeps bringing in lunatics from the far right and wins primaries - A GOP primary can be a wild thing when the crazy is let loose, and the good % of the GOP base loves them some crazy - So seeing some GOP crazy get to a general election isn't surprising 

Drudge is going to be hammering Bannon in the coming days. It’ll be interesting to see how much sway among the base Bannon retains. 

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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15 minutes ago, CPslograd said:

Ok, So This Is The Shitty Part For You And I.

The truth is that Trump was on to something.  Movement conservatives and small business owners weren't going to carry the GOP to victory anymore.  And the GOP had become dysfunctional.  It had become a party whose base was blue collar whites, because the democrats had abandoned them.  But it was a party quoting Adam Smith to high school grads who had just lost their factory jobs to China.  Political parties are about winning elections, not debating societies.

The funny thing about reading the democrats in this thread talk about how we just have to win those people back, is that it sounds like republicans talking about winning Hispanic voters.  Yes, there are common interests, but blue collar whites have been drifting towards the GOP for decades now.  The difference with Trump is that he blatantly pandered to them, just like democrats do with blacks and hispanics.

So if the democrats try to woo them back, Trump will just pander more.  Again, just like democrats do when republicans try to reach out to hispanics.  And you can only pander so much, or you run into the issues the GOP leadership does in regards to immigration reform.  The dems will have base voters like misfit raising Cain if they start pandering too much to blue collar whites.

All of this is on point. The sifting and forming of new coalitions seems likely to leave those like us without a party. 

That Democrat primary is going to be fascinating. Everyone with ambition will need to throw their hat in the ring after stepping aside for Clinton last go around. They can’t risk sitting out another presidential cycle, especially if the Dem wins the White House. That’d make 2028 the soonest next chance for likely challengers, and the Dems are notoriously old. Who will voters coalesce around? Will anyone be able to put their economic message ahead of the identity politics like Bernie did, or will there be multiple candidates gunning for that lane that cannabalize each other? And what of Bernie, does he run again and hope to retain the 2016 magic against more formidable opponents than Hillary? If he plays kingmaker, will he pick the right horse? And how easily can Dems win back those blue collar whites they lost to Trump after calling them idiots and deplorables for a few years?

 

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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1 hour ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html?_r=0&referer=https://fivethirtyeight-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-one-county-in-america-that-voted-in-a-landslide-for-both-trump-and-obama/amp/?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQGCAEYASAB

In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout.

Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected.

To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was mainly among black voters. Even there, the scale of Democratic weakness has been exaggerated.

Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate.

Thanks for saving me the trouble.

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58 minutes ago, CPslograd said:

Ok, So This Is The Shitty Part For You And I.

The truth is that Trump was on to something.  Movement conservatives and small business owners weren't going to carry the GOP to victory anymore.  And the GOP had become dysfunctional.  It had become a party whose base was blue collar whites, because the democrats had abandoned them.  But it was a party quoting Adam Smith to high school grads who had just lost their factory jobs to China.  Political parties are about winning elections, not debating societies.

The funny thing about reading the democrats in this thread talk about how we just have to win those people back, is that it sounds like republicans talking about winning Hispanic voters.  Yes, there are common interests, but blue collar whites have been drifting towards the GOP for decades now.  The difference with Trump is that he blatantly pandered to them, just like democrats do with blacks and hispanics.

So if the democrats try to woo them back, Trump will just pander more.  Again, just like democrats do when republicans try to reach out to hispanics.  And you can only pander so much, or you run into the issues the GOP leadership does in regards to immigration reform.  The dems will have base voters like misfit raising Cain if they start pandering too much to blue collar whites.

 

42 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

All of this is on point. The sifting and forming of new coalitions seems likely to leave those like us without a party. 

That Democrat primary is going to be fascinating. Everyone with ambition will need to throw their hat in the ring after stepping aside for Clinton last to around. They can’t risk sitting out another go around, especially if the Dem wins the White House. Who will voters coalesce around? Will anyone be able to put their economic message ahead of the identity politics like Bernie did, or will there be multiple candidates gunning for that lane that cannabalize each other? And what of Bernie, does he run again and hope to retain the 2016 magic against more formidable opponents than Hillary? If he plays kingmaker, will he pick the right horse? And how easily can Dems win back those blue collar whites they lost to Trump after calling them idiots and deplorables for a few years?

 

 

I live with Trump voters around here.  The county went over 70% for Trump and only 60% of voters in the county are republican.  Many of those are quite libertarian and vote that sagebrush rebellion stuff.  A lot of these people didn't like Romney because he was too liberal.  They are willing to ignore Trump being democrat 5 minutes ago though because he insults liberals especially the media.  They thought romney was too nice.

So i talk with them and there is one thing they love.  They just love the way Trump treats the media.  They don't care he makes no sense sometimes they don't care his policys are all over the map.  They love he insults the media over and over..  That is what won Trump the election, it wasn't his policies.,

Trumps popularity at least in my area is 99% because he insults the media.   He is like boise fan and jackmoron in that Trump doubles down on stupid in the media and people love it.

Trumps secret is he is running against the media.

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22 minutes ago, CPslograd said:

Ok, So This Is The Shitty Part For You And I.

The truth is that Trump was on to something.  Movement conservatives and small business owners weren't going to carry the GOP to victory anymore.  And the GOP had become dysfunctional.  It had become a party whose base was blue collar whites, because the democrats had abandoned them.  But it was a party quoting Adam Smith to high school grads who had just lost their factory jobs to China.  Political parties are about winning elections, not debating societies.

 

Factory jobs?

try any job that can be digitized.  Engineering jobs, finance jobs, IT jobs, legal, operational jobs, marketing jobs, HR jobs.  I have been part of a company that for 15 years has not grown revenue but has made EPS numbers by systematically off shoring jobs to Mexico, Romania, Singapore and Shanghai.   We aren’t talking blue collar workers in manufacturing, we are talking engineers and MBA’s.   I know because I was in this meetings and the systematic destruction of the US employee base is how they plan to make their profit targets.

The reason the Republicans are winning is the Democrats don’t have an answer for a major segment of society.   The Republicans don’t really either because they are owned by elite profiting from that shift, but at least they pretend and mouth the words.   The Dems shrug their shoulders and go back to their teaching or government jobs with nothing.  

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17 minutes ago, bluerules009 said:

 

 

I live with Trump voters around here.  The county went over 70% for Trump and only 60% of voters in the county are republican.  Many of those are quite libertarian and vote that sagebrush rebellion stuff.  A lot of these people didn't like Romney because he was too liberal.  They are willing to ignore

So i talk with them and there is one thing they love.  They just love the way Trump treats the media.  They don't care he makes no sense sometimes they don't care his policys are all over the map.  They love he insults the media over and over..  That is what won Trump the election, it wasn't his policies.,

Trumps popularity at least in my area is 99% because he insults the media.   He is like boise fan and jackmoron in that Trump doubles down on stupid in the media and people love it.

Trumps secret is he is running against the media.

I know a lot of Trump voters like that and my experience is much the same. But while some may have refrained from going out to vote for Romney, they aren’t the type who would vote for Obama twice and then switch over to Trump. In rural Nevada the Democrats haven’t spoken their language for many decades. The blue collar whites in the Midwest are a bit different, they grew up with generations of their family voting for Democrats.

Your point about the media seems spot on to me. They love Trump hammering them. They love it even more where like last week multiple mainstream stories give the media a black eye by rushing to break something that turns out to be misleading or false, and then Trump and Fox get to hit them with it. CP is right though, these aren’t the type of people, in my experience, you can dig down on Adam Smith with. Most don’t have any clue as to who he was. The GOP was getting their support almost by accident, they didn’t know how to talk to their baser, petty desires to attack those they saw as wrong. Trump understood that intuitively.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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57 minutes ago, CPslograd said:

Ok, So This Is The Shitty Part For You And I.

The truth is that Trump was on to something.  Movement conservatives and small business owners weren't going to carry the GOP to victory anymore.  And the GOP had become dysfunctional.  It had become a party whose base was blue collar whites, because the democrats had abandoned them.  But it was a party quoting Adam Smith to high school grads who had just lost their factory jobs to China.  Political parties are about winning elections, not debating societies.

The funny thing about reading the democrats in this thread talk about how we just have to win those people back, is that it sounds like republicans talking about winning Hispanic voters.  Yes, there are common interests, but blue collar whites have been drifting towards the GOP for decades now.  The difference with Trump is that he blatantly pandered to them, just like democrats do with blacks and hispanics.

So if the democrats try to woo them back, Trump will just pander more.  Again, just like democrats do when republicans try to reach out to hispanics.  And you can only pander so much, or you run into the issues the GOP leadership does in regards to immigration reform.  The dems will have base voters like misfit raising Cain if they start pandering too much to blue collar whites.

I tend to agree with this. 

 

Blue collar whites are lost to the GOP. 

 

The Dems should just focus on turning out their base and swaying college-educated and suburban whites. If they do that demographics make them unbeatable in national elections. Pandering to Joe Bob in West Virginia who hates “them spoiled kneeling negras” is a waste of time. 

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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4 minutes ago, youngrebelfan40 said:

I tend to agree with this. 

 

Blue collar whites are lost lost to the GOP. 

 

The Dems should just focus on turning out their base and swaying college-educated and suburban whites. If they do that demographics make them unbeatable in national elections. Pandering to Joe Bob in West Virginia who hates “them kneeling negras” is a waste of time. 

The Dems are losing with college educated white males also.   The gap among males even with Moore was 14%.  

The problem is the vast majority of democratic activists are teachers, government employees and minorities....  not a group for whom a jobs plan is their first priority.   

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3 minutes ago, youngrebelfan40 said:

I tend to agree with this. 

 

Blue collar whites are lost to the GOP. 

 

The Dems should just focus on turning out their base and swaying college-educated and suburban whites. If they do that demographics make them unbeatable in national elections. Pandering to Joe Bob in West Virginia who hates “them spoiled kneeling negras” is a waste of time. 

Blue collar whites love Trump.  They love the anti-media rhetoric.

Blue collar democrat whites voted in droves for trump and if republicans embrace that anti-media and anti-media elite rhetoric, California and Massachusetts will be the only place a democrat has a job.

 

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7 minutes ago, youngrebelfan40 said:

I tend to agree with this. 

 

Blue collar whites are lost to the GOP. 

 

The Dems should just focus on turning out their base and swaying college-educated and suburban whites. If they do that demographics make them unbeatable in national elections. Pandering to Joe Bob in West Virginia who hates “them spoiled kneeling negras” is a waste of time. 

I’d be careful about the demographics is destiny path. All evidence to support it rests on Obama, a charismatically brilliant politician that could generate voter turnout by his particular involvement in a national election alone. A person like that is not easily found. Remove him, and the Dems have to go back 50+ years to find another Presidential success in that way, one that wasn’t based on moderation or the disgrace of the opposing party.

There is more to Joe Bob than what you assume. If the Dems cast that all aside, they might be doomed. 

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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14 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

I know a lot of Trump voters like that and my experience is much the same. But while some may have refrained from going out to vote for Romney, they aren’t the type who would vote for Obama twice and then switch over to Trump. In rural Nevada the Democrats haven’t spoken their language for many decades. The blue collar whites in the Midwest are a bit different, they grew up with generations of their family voting for Democrats.

Your point about the media seems spot on to me. They love Trump hammering them. They love it even more where like last week multiple mainstream stories give the media a black eye by rushing to break something that turns out to be misleading or false, and then Trump and Fox get to hit them with it. CP is right though, these aren’t the type of people, in my experience, you can dig down on Adam Smith with. Most don’t have any clue as to who he was. The GOP was getting their support almost by accident, they didn’t know how to talk to their baser, petty desires to attack those they saw as wrong. Trump understood that intuitively.

There is no party for me and people like me who are liberal enough to want well run government programs for the poor and vulnerable.  I want to get military spending under control and I want economic freedom.  I don't want a bullshit tax plan for poor and special interests that complicates a tax code and does nothing to spur the economy.  I don't want another of the biggest handout to special interests in history a trillion dollar infrastructure debacle.  I am tired of wars with no national interest.  I am tired of a federal government verging on the powers of king george to kill citizens, spy on them and hand out favors to the favored elite.

I used to be a republican because they were the party of the environment and business.   People forget Nixon was at least partially if not totally responsible for almost all modern environmental law.  Clean water and clean air act's, RCRA, Superfund, endangered species act, EPA being cabinet level ect....  

I held my nose when Reagan brought in the evangelicals.  

Sadly since George HW Bush there hasn't been a president worthy of the title.  Democrats could claim since Clinton and I wouldn't object.

Now the republican party is what the democratic party was in the 50's and 60's.   I have very little interest in the party.  I am just too lazy to change affiliation and have nothing to change too.

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3 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

I’d be careful about the demographics is destiny path. All evidence to support it rests on Obama, a charismatically brilliant politician that could generate voter turnout by his particular involvement in a national election alone. A person like that is not easily found. Remove him, and the Dems have to go back 50+ years to find another Presidential success in that way, one that wasn’t based on moderation or the disgrace of the opposing party.

There is more to Joe Bob than what you assume. If the Dems cast that all aside, they might be doomed. 

Obama is a unicorn.  There won't be another first black president.   Combine that with his oratory and pretty face and family and he is a rare find.   Still Obama beat McCain at the bottom of a recession during an unpopular war and beat Romney who was a horrible candidate with no Charisma at all.   

I think the democrats over estimate the demographic advantage.  Especially as time goes on and immigrants become second and third generation americans.  With business and economic interests beyond welfare and immigration.  

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25 minutes ago, youngrebelfan40 said:

I tend to agree with this. 

 

Blue collar whites are lost to the GOP. 

 

The Dems should just focus on turning out their base and swaying college-educated and suburban whites. If they do that demographics make them unbeatable in national elections. Pandering to Joe Bob in West Virginia who hates “them spoiled kneeling negras” is a waste of time. 

The GOP lost their minds when they left the Barry Goldwater philosophy and adopted the Jerry Falwell + David Duke platform.

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2 minutes ago, IanforHeisman said:

Why did Republicans nominate Romney when he was so different from Bush and Trump? Just no better options?

Romney was hardly any different from Bush on policy.  He was just a more educated and bland guy.  Romney would never ever say anything unkind about anyone and i can tell you many republicans i know thought he was too soft.

Bush would have beat Obama.  

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4 minutes ago, IanforHeisman said:

Why did Republicans nominate Romney when he was so different from Bush and Trump? Just no better options?

What? Bush and Romney were/are a lot closer to one another than Bush is/was to Trump. Trump is the outlier of those three.

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4 minutes ago, bluerules009 said:

Romney was hardly any different from Bush on policy.  He was just a more educated and bland guy.  Romney would never ever say anything unkind about anyone and i can tell you many republicans i know thought he was too soft.

Bush would have beat Obama.  

I disagree. Obama was elected because of Bush. 

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3 minutes ago, IanforHeisman said:

Why did Republicans nominate Romney when he was so different from Bush and Trump? Just no better options?

None. The Bush people like Powell and Rice were tainted with Iraq. The young guns ushered in during the 2010 wave had no national presence. McCain already lost, and the old guard was old. Rick Perry wasn’t half the politician W was. So that left Romney vs Newt, a crazy person who is an impossibly creative but is such a villain that the milquetoast Mitt had to win.

As Blues said, Romney was the flag bearer of mainstream conservative thought, but was too cold, too rich, and too uncharismatically normal to make any waves against a star like Obama, even though his administration was a mess that could have been had in 2012.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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