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bornontheblue

Will the Democrats regain the house and Senate

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6 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

What’s your count on the Senate?   The Dems have some tough seats to defend...

Democrats will hold all of their seats and pick up Flake's, Heller, and Corker's seats.  This will be a wave election.  People are pissed.  They are going to seal the deal when they pass a shitty tax bill.

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16 hours ago, happycamper said:

1. The coasts have the majority of the people, and that ignores democratic strongholds like Chicago and now Denver (and also unfairly lumps Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama in with them). It's more accurate to say that the Democrats are the urban majority than "coastal minority". Furthermore, Iowa has been blue more often than not of late. 

 

Other than that, yeah, pretty much. Although if the election goes the way the Virginia state one did, we may be in for some pretty big surprises. 

Democrats are the minority in state legislatures, the minority in the number of governors, they minority in the senate, the minority in the house, and they no longer have the prersidency. It has been trending this way for a long time. I would say it is pretty safe to assume the Democrats are a minority , with Coastal strongholds. 

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7 hours ago, CPslograd said:

the gop will lose the senate but keep the house btw.

I don't think they will. The Democrats have a lot more territory to defend in states that could go either way. 

Doug Jones winning is not a pre cursor to the 2018 mid terms either. That has more to do with the fact that the GOP put up a horrible candidate. 

 

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39 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

I don't think they will. The Democrats have a lot more territory to defend in states that could go either way. 

Doug Jones winning is not a pre cursor to the 2018 mid terms either. That has more to do with the fact that the GOP put up a horrible candidate. 

 

You could be right, but I think you're underestimating the havoc Bannon can create, Trump's unpopularity, and negative reaction to come from the tax bill. 

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1 hour ago, bornontheblue said:

I don't think they will. The Democrats have a lot more territory to defend in states that could go either way. 

Doug Jones winning is not a pre cursor to the 2018 mid terms either. That has more to do with the fact that the GOP put up a horrible candidate. 

 

The Democrats have been delivering way above expectations in special elections this year. Moore was a singularly bad candidate, but nonetheless the GOP is in deep trouble. All signs point to an electorate unhappy with the President’s behavior and lacking faith in the Republican Party they delivered into total power a year ago.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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1 hour ago, bornontheblue said:

Democrats are the minority in state legislatures, the minority in the number of governors, they minority in the senate, the minority in the house, and they no longer have the prersidency.

None of which has a 1:1 relationship with population, so not sure why you brought them up

 

1 hour ago, bornontheblue said:

It has been trending this way for a long time. I would say it is pretty safe to assume the Democrats are a minority , with Coastal strongholds. 

Sure, it has been, but you're a fool if you don't think that there is a pendulum.

There are more registered democrats and, nationally, democratic candidates get more votes. That's kind of the opposite of "minority". Frankly neither party is the "minority". When you trade elections as evenly as they have, it's fairly obvious that there is a down the middle split. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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1 hour ago, bornontheblue said:

I don't think they will. The Democrats have a lot more territory to defend in states that could go either way. 

Doug Jones winning is not a pre cursor to the 2018 mid terms either. That has more to do with the fact that the GOP put up a horrible candidate. 

 

Doug Jones winning is also one less seat that the Dems have to win in 2018. I put their odds of retaking the Senate at about 50-50. 

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8 hours ago, CPslograd said:

i dont know.  im kind of into the old convergence theory from the nixon days right now.

Whats the difference?  The constituents they pander too?

Trump lies every time he breathes.  but so does CNN.  for godsake they are talking about how many diet cokes he drinks.

Then you got Gillibrand a few weeks ago saying bubba should have resigned.  irregardless of the fact that she is a clinton inc product who was handed Hillary's seat by the clintons.  last week the dems demand Franken step down.  then miraculously the media trots out trumps harrassment accusers from the campaign on monday.  then  gillibrand calls on trump to resign.  Trump responds to this absurdly obvious ploy by calling gillibrand a whore in veiled terms.  and gillibrand and her allies respond by feigning outrage and victimhood.

its a +++++ing joke.  the whole damn thing.  who cares?  bunch of 3rd graders.

Dude, I was being TIC. Relax. 

This is what our politics have become, and both bases reward politicians for acting this way.

And to be fair, CNN wasn't lying about the Diet Cokes. It was reporting on superficial nonsense, which is what cable news is best at. Let's get it straight!

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4 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

Dude, I was being TIC. Relax. 

This is what our politics have become, and both bases reward politicians for acting this way.

And to be fair, CNN wasn't lying about the Diet Cokes. It was reporting on superficial nonsense, which is what cable news is best at. Let's get it straight!

Nothing Wrong with Diet Coke.

President Clinton used to smoke Cigars in the oval office, and used an intern as his own personal humidor. 

 

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8 hours ago, Akkula said:

Democrats will hold all of their seats and pick up Flake's, Heller, and Corker's seats.  This will be a wave election.  People are pissed.  They are going to seal the deal when they pass a shitty tax bill.

Not unless they have a credible jobs plan besides education.   People aren’t dumb.  Makes no sense to spend 100k on a degree when companies will send the job to an engineer in China for 1/2 the price and who doesn’t have loans to pay back.

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10 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

Not unless they have a credible jobs plan besides education.   People aren’t dumb.  Makes no sense to spend 100k on a degree when companies will send the job to an engineer in China for 1/2 the price and who doesn’t have loans to pay back.

1. Nobody spends 100k on a degree. Those outliers are basically insignificant.

2. What engineering jobs are going to China?

3. Education IS a credible jobs plan, for the short term at least. We have a pool of people who aren't skilled enough for a job and a shortage of skilled labor.

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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59 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

The Democrats have been delivering way above expectations in special elections this year. Moore was a singularly bad candidate, but nonetheless the GOP is in deep trouble. All signs point to an electorate unhappy with the President’s behavior and lacking faith in the Republican Party they delivered into total power a year ago.

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I tend to agree with you here.  I see both House and Senate going to the Democrats in 2018.

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9 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I tend to agree with you here.  I see both House and Senate going to the Democrats in 2018.

There is still a long way to go before then. If the economy keeps humming for another year it might be different. If the crazy wing of the Dems shouts down the leadership and the election becomes a referendum on the impeachment of Trump without clear evidence of serious wrongdoing ala 98, I don’t think the voters will like that.  But for now the tea leaves are clearly reading whatever Congressional Republicans have been doing, basically nothing, is not the path to victory.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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16 minutes ago, 406WarriorFan said:

I can't see the House turning blue unless they change up the gerrymandering. 

That won't happen anytime soon. The Democrats would need to win back control of state legislatures where the gerrymandering occurs. The 2020 census could help, but the Trumpists are starving the Census Bureau of the resources it is typically allotted to prepare as the census approaches. I think the best that can be hoped for in the near-term is that the SCOTUS reigns in the most egregious examples ala N. Carolina and Wisconsin.

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2 hours ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

You could be right, but I think you're underestimating the havoc Bannon can create, Trump's unpopularity, and negative reaction to come from the tax bill. 

I can understand negative reaction to the tax bill from high tax states like California and New York, Illinois, however they will never send a republican to Congress anyways , so who cares. 

A lot of people in low tax states are going to see a real benefit to the tax legislation so it will increase support. 

 

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