Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

bornontheblue

Will the Democrats regain the house and Senate

Recommended Posts

I highly doubt it

1. The Democrats have devolved into a coastal minority party in the last 20 years and do not connect with the average Schmuck say in Iowa, or Indiana. They have lost control of most of the state legislatures, governorship, the house, the senate and the presidency all in Obama's tenure, and I don't see this trend changing. . DJT exposed their weakness, and the Democrats have done nothing to reach out to voters that switched from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. 

2. The Democrats have to defend 23 senate seats in  2018 , many of them in states that voted for Trump. The GOP has to defend 8 senate seats, all of which were states that voted for Trump except Nevada. I also don't see the democrats flipping the house. 

Thoughts

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of the 34 seats up for re-election in the senate only 8 of them are republican and 26 (assuming Al Franken's seat is up) of them are democrat or independents who caucus with democrats.

Highly unlikely the democrats can make any headway with those facts in the senate.  They could easily lose seats.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it depends. If the trend is towards more Roy Moore and staunch Trumpers as candidates in the GOP, that could really hurt them. OTOH, if more moderate Repubs come out, they will keep it easily.

That said, I think the Repubs are in trouble in the Senate, but keep the House easy.

Would be interesting to see if some 3rd party emerges in these races. Both major parties are shit shows right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, bluerules009 said:

Of the 34 seats up for re-election in the senate only 8 of them are republican and 26 (assuming Al Franken's seat is up) of them are democrat or independents who caucus with democrats.

Highly unlikely the democrats can make any headway with those facts in the senate.  They could easily lose seats.

I agree. It is an uphill battle for the Democrats in the senate. They have more seats to defend, a lot of them in states that Trump won. 

The Democrats also have no message to sell to voters other than we hate Trump. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

I agree. It is an uphill battle for the Democrats in the senate. They have more seats to defend, a lot of them in states that Trump won. 

The Democrats also have no message to sell to voters other than we hate Trump. 

The Repubs had no message to send to voters except we hate Hillary, and that worked so who knows?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

1 minute ago, SharkTanked said:

The Repubs had no message to send to voters except we hate Hillary, and that worked so who knows?

Wrong!

Trump was very clear on his positions about Health Care, Immigration, tax policy, trade deals, etc. His position was well established on most every issue. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

 

Wrong!

Trump was very clear on his positions about Health Care, Immigration, tax policy, trade deals, etc. His position was well established on most every issue. 

 

I'd say the Dems have the same. But if you don't think it was the anti-Hillary vote that got Trump elected, I don't know what to tell ya.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

D's almost certainly won't gain control in 2018.  If they win today in Alabama it would make it easier. Then all they would need is to flip two seats and they would have control.

Flake (AZ) retiring - won 49% in 2012 - that's a winnable seat for Dems.  So is Heller's NV seat (only won 46% of vote in 2012).

The problem for the Dems though, is that they have incumbents in multiple red states in likely toss-ups themselves.  Tester in MT, McCaskill in MO, Donnelly in IN, etc.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Senate would be the tougher one of the two, but if there is a MAJOR anti-Trump rush to the polls maybe the Dems could come close.

If Alabama goes to the Dems tonight, the odds get better for the long shot possibility

if AZ & NV flip to Dems the Senate could be closer to 50-50

1 hour ago, BSUTOP25 said:

Outside of one primary issue it doesn't really matter to me. Dems and GOP are basically the same shit. 

Dems aren't openly courting Nazi's and child molesters - there's a bit of difference if one isn't into goose stepping down to the local junior high to check out the 'talent" 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BSUTOP25 said:

Outside of one primary issue it doesn't really matter to me. Dems and GOP are basically the same shit. 

Incorrect. They are both shitty in completely different ways!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bornontheblue said:

I highly doubt it

1. The Democrats have devolved into a coastal minority party in the last 20 years and do not connect with the average Schmuck say in Iowa, or Indiana. They have lost control of most of the state legislatures, governorship, the house, the senate and the presidency all in Obama's tenure, and I don't see this trend changing. . DJT exposed their weakness, and the Democrats have done nothing to reach out to voters that switched from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. 

2. The Democrats have to defend 23 senate seats in  2018 , many of them in states that voted for Trump. The GOP has to defend 8 senate seats, all of which were states that voted for Trump except Nevada. I also don't see the democrats flipping the house. 

Thoughts

 

 

1. The coasts have the majority of the people, and that ignores democratic strongholds like Chicago and now Denver (and also unfairly lumps Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama in with them). It's more accurate to say that the Democrats are the urban majority than "coastal minority". Furthermore, Iowa has been blue more often than not of late. 

 

Other than that, yeah, pretty much. Although if the election goes the way the Virginia state one did, we may be in for some pretty big surprises. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Roy Moore is likely going to win tonight, which would put the GOP at 44 seats next year that aren't up for reelection. Even if the Dems hang on to every one of their seats and win every single "toss up" race (which includes fairly red states), the GOP will hang on to the senate as long as they hold on to Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Texas, Tennessee, and Mississippi. Those states are not going blue.

Any prayer for the Dems to flip the senate would have to come through a Roy Moore loss tonight, and even then it'd be insanely unlikely. I'd be more inclined to bet on the GOP gaining seats if anything.

Granted I was dead wrong in 2016 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, they will not regain either.

 

Tribalism outweighs all other considerations. People no longer even care about right or wrong, ethics, decency. They only care about the tribe. And wiping out 'the other side'. If it makes 'the other side miserable' way to go! No matter how reprehensible. This country, and the people in it, have completely lost their way.

 

No, the dems regain neither.

One of the Final Five..........

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, SharkTanked said:

The Repubs had no message to send to voters except we hate Hillary, and that worked so who knows?

That was not Trumps message.  His was your getting screwed by the elites and illegals and I will help you get your jobs back...

it was all a lie but since the Democrats had no credible message on jobs Trump was the only alternative.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, sebasour said:

Roy Moore is likely going to win tonight, which would put the GOP at 44 seats next year that aren't up for reelection. Even if the Dems hang on to every one of their seats and win every single "toss up" race (which includes fairly red states), the GOP will hang on to the senate as long as they hold on to Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Texas, Tennessee, and Mississippi. Those states are not going blue.

Any prayer for the Dems to flip the senate would have to come through a Roy Moore loss tonight, and even then it'd be insanely unlikely. I'd be more inclined to bet on the GOP gaining seats if anything.

Granted I was dead wrong in 2016 

Well your at least starting out wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, NVGiant said:

Incorrect. They are both shitty in completely different ways!

i dont know.  im kind of into the old convergence theory from the nixon days right now.

Whats the difference?  The constituents they pander too?

Trump lies every time he breathes.  but so does CNN.  for godsake they are talking about how many diet cokes he drinks.

Then you got Gillibrand a few weeks ago saying bubba should have resigned.  irregardless of the fact that she is a clinton inc product who was handed Hillary's seat by the clintons.  last week the dems demand Franken step down.  then miraculously the media trots out trumps harrassment accusers from the campaign on monday.  then  gillibrand calls on trump to resign.  Trump responds to this absurdly obvious ploy by calling gillibrand a whore in veiled terms.  and gillibrand and her allies respond by feigning outrage and victimhood.

its a +++++ing joke.  the whole damn thing.  who cares?  bunch of 3rd graders.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...