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Antarctic79

OT: What is New Mexico State's future

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On 12/4/2017 at 11:23 AM, Antarctic79 said:

I'm not starting this thread to advocate NMSU to the MWC.

Just curious what people know about their future.  Idaho is now all in with the Big Sky in all sports.  Is NMSU happy with the WAC for all other sports?  How is their independent football schedule coming along for future years?

I know the future of the community donating snacks to players looks bright. ?

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Taking USU and SAN! was a reasonably prudent decision at that time. USU still looks like a good add for what has been available. But if we had to add a new member right now and never added SJSU, they would still pretty much be the best we could get with everything taken into consideration. Maybe we should've just gone with 11. 

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2 hours ago, alum93 said:

The B12 losing Texas and Oklahoma in 2023-24 timeframe is the best hope right now.

As far as other posts about pursuing the Big Sky, it makes no sense right now at all.  We have a competitive football team at the G5 level and are going bowling for the first time in forever.  2018 and 2019 schedules are basically done.  MWC/CUSA/Sun Belt seem willing to schedule us and we have 4 FBS G5 games already booked for 2020 and 2021.  Regarding basketball,  the WAC hasn't seemed to hurt us.  Weir replaced Menzies and had one great season and moved on.  Jans came in and we are 6-1 with the latest RPI ranking i saw of 66.  How many MWC teams are top 100?  How many are top 200?  As long as the basketball continues to recruit and win year in and year out and has a good RPI and the football can schedule G5 teams and be competitive,  exactly what is the incentive to look at Big Sky?  Stability?  We have it for oly sports for at least 3 years.  WAC falling apart?  We have 8 teams, CSUB already has its replacement coming in and isn't leaving until 2020 anyways.  Additional revenue?  I can tell you i don't know a single fan that would rather see a 7-9 win FCS team against the likes of Idaho State and Montana State over a 4-6 win team over the likes of UNM and UTEP.  It just doesn't sell.  As an FCS,  G5 schools would never come to AMS.  No thanks.  

Can circumstances come up very quickly that force NMSU to reconsider?  Sure, but that will always be the case.  The MWC just had to reinvent itself 6 years ago after TCU, Utah, and BYU left. It happens.  Oly sports will always have options considering the success of our men's basketball program.  I see absolutely no downside to playing the FBS card until there are no more options.  Going bowling our final year in Sun Belt?  Heck, that's just icing on the cake.  NMSU made the right decision to go indy and reject Big Sky possibility for the moment.  4 or 5 years from now,  we may be in a different situation.  For now,  everything has lined up as good as we could hope.  The 2018 schedule is really cool, a great mixture of G5 conferences plus our 2 rivals as always.  2019 isn't bad.  

As far as the Big West,  that's always a possibility our there on the horizon.  The conference would have to expand their footprint and have done so in the past.  Again, we are talking 5 years out at least and anything can happen.  In their current form,  i see no advantage in Big West versus top of WAC - NMSU, GCU, UVU, CSUB, Seattle.  None.  Does that mean NMSU wouldn't consider Big West as an option if they came calling in the future?  i am sure we would listen.  

FBS football is like the golden ticket in Willy Wonka movie.  There are precious few and NMSU should hold on with both hands until there are absolutely no other options,  assuming it doesn't affect our oly sports negatively and we are competitive with schools like UNM/UTEP in football.  So far it hasn't hurt basketball.  RPI of 66,  multiple NCAA tourneys,  6-1 to start this latest season, etc, etc.  

Guess NMSU has a waiting game to play

1) Wait to see IF the B12 takes a hit and if enough dominoes fall the MWC might need NMSU just to survive

2) Put oly sports in the Big West which was an old home and leave FB independent hoping that scenario 1 occurs sometime soon - if doing this NMSU might want to sacrifice their FB program nad take as many money P5 games as possible to build a financial base

3) Surrender after a few seasons and try to join the Big Sky for all sports - if the B12 ever does fall apart and the MWC gets pulled apart, the MWC option could / might always be there at some future time

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48 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

Guess NMSU has a waiting game to play

1) Wait to see IF the B12 takes a hit and if enough dominoes fall the MWC might need NMSU just to survive

2) Put oly sports in the Big West which was an old home and leave FB independent hoping that scenario 1 occurs sometime soon - if doing this NMSU might want to sacrifice their FB program nad take as many money P5 games as possible to build a financial base

3) Surrender after a few seasons and try to join the Big Sky for all sports - if the B12 ever does fall apart and the MWC gets pulled apart, the MWC option could / might always be there at some future time

Really option 1 is where we are at.  There is no reason for us to consider Big West and Big Sky or them to consider us as of now.   I am sure there are backup plans in place should something dramatic happen to WAC before 2020 such as Chicago State and another school leaving.  But as long as WAC isn't hurting our oly sports, most importantly men's basketball, and there is no sign at all it is - we are good.  In fact,  our basketball team just continues to be solid regardless of what happens in WAC.  It took Martin 5 years to get to this point in football, but there were positive signs in years 3 and 4 that we were getting closer and closer.  Fixing the APR mess from 2012 and getting full scholarships back was just as important as getting wins towards stabilizing and building for the future.  He did it the right way, by recruiting freshmen and developing them.  It was brutal for first 2 years but paid off with a bowl season.  So here we are.  

The original question that started the thread was a good one.  Most MWC fans don't know what is going on at NMSU outside of when they play us so i have no problem giving thoughts as someone who closely follows the program, as do all the fans on this site for their respective schools.  I was a lot more worried in 2016 when the Sun Belt announced their decision.  After seeing the 2018 and 2019 schedules and seeing who is already signed for 2020 and 2021 i feel much better.  Jans in basketball also seems like a home run based off a limited number of data points.  Anytime we are in top 70 in RPI after 7 games, we are doing something right.  We play San Diego tonight and are at UNM on Saturday.

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3 hours ago, alum93 said:

I am guessing he was talking about this year only and the answer is yes we are better.  I don't think anyone cares what any team was like 10 years ago much less 20+.   Everyone knows we are a basketball school first.  Football has been a challenge to say the least to have one good season, much less any consistency year to year.  Our last 7 win season was in the Sun Belt many moons ago before the WAC years.  While we may not replicate this year's success in football, the team is set up nicely to compete next year with 3 MWC schools on the schedule.

K. Well, good luck moving forward.

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3 hours ago, RogueStout said:

Hair: Hawaii you either join as a full member or you’re out

Hawaii: Ok

 

LOL.....

The MW AD's and presidents didn't want Hawaii as a full member.  I don't think Hawaii wanted a full membership to the MW when the Big West is the best option for them for the non-football sports.  

 

But yeah....guess what BSU and SDSU departures did cause USU and SJSU to be invited.  If that matter so much to BSU/SDSU, they wouldn't have rejoined the MW

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22 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

K. Well, good luck moving forward.

i mentioned i have kept an eye on some MWC teams.  i watched part of games of USU/Wisconsin, UNM/CSU, UNM/UNLV, UNM/Boise, and SJSU/SDSU.  The UNM games i watched maybe the last 5 minutes of CSU and UNLV just to see outcome, and a quarter of Boise game.  Seeing how we beat them i was curious what they looked like against other MWC teams physically.  Same for USU.  I think i caught maybe the first quarter of SJSU vs SDSU and i'll tell you exactly what it reminded me of. 

Before Martin, our last coach was Walker.  He wasn't a fit at NMSU at all.  His experience in college was at big P5 schools.  He was fortunate to be coach at the same time Locksley was at UNM, giving him precious rivalry wins.  Outside of that, we were just bad.  Really bad.  Really really bad.  By his 4th year, it was clear the team wasn't on the same page.  We started getting hammered.  The game that i remember most from his last season in 2012 was SJSU.  We came out flat.  SJSU was up 17-0 in the blink of an eye.  it was a blowout by half.  We had no fight.  That game reminded me of the SJSU-SDSU game, well for the quarter i watched.  SJSU didn't look like they even wanted to be there.  

So Walker went 1-11 his final year, but the games were just lopsided.  I was joking replying to your 17-3 record because i had no idea.  It has taken Martin every bit of 5 years to put the team on the field that he did this year.  Yes we won 6 games, but it was the entire season and all the close losses that showed we had turned a corner.  There wasn't a single half of football where the team didn't play with intensity or score or looked like they didn't belong physically.  That includes Arizona State and Arkansas.  I wasn't pretending we have a better football program than anyone in the MWC, including SJSU.  I was simply saying this year we were better.  

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11 minutes ago, MWC Tex said:

LOL.....

The MW AD's and presidents didn't want Hawaii as a full member.  I don't think Hawaii wanted a full membership to the MW when the Big West is the best option for them for the non-football sports.  

 

But yeah....guess what BSU and SDSU departures did cause USU and SJSU to be invited.  If that matter so much to BSU/SDSU, they wouldn't have rejoined the MW

BSU returned because the conference they thought they were going to join imploded and the MWC offered a sweeter deal with incentives that other teams didn't get.  That's what i remember at least.  Am i wrong?

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31 minutes ago, alum93 said:

BSU returned because the conference they thought they were going to join imploded and the MWC offered a sweeter deal with incentives that other teams didn't get.  That's what i remember at least.  Am i wrong?

No...BSU returned not because the conference was going to implode but because they weren't going to get $6 million in TV revenue, in addition to an auto-bid to a BCS bowl.   The MW (or rather the CSU AD) offer a deal to BSU that they couldn't turn down to come back to the MW when it pretty much known that the TV deal was only going to be around the $2 million dollar mark.  I think BSU would have returned even without the deal because they would be running close to break even with the travel to the AAC schools and paying the Big West $1 million /year on top of travel expenses for non-football sports.  

The only thing at the time was that nobody could predict that BSU wasn't going to be as good as they were before to really help the MW in getting a NY6 bowl.

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33 minutes ago, MWC Tex said:

No...BSU returned not because the conference was going to implode but because they weren't going to get $6 million in TV revenue, in addition to an auto-bid to a BCS bowl.   The MW (or rather the CSU AD) offer a deal to BSU that they couldn't turn down to come back to the MW when it pretty much known that the TV deal was only going to be around the $2 million dollar mark.  I think BSU would have returned even without the deal because they would be running close to break even with the travel to the AAC schools and paying the Big West $1 million /year on top of travel expenses for non-football sports.  

The only thing at the time was that nobody could predict that BSU wasn't going to be as good as they were before to really help the MW in getting a NY6 bowl.

Off topic, but with an undefeated UCF not even close to being the final four discussion, it is official for the immediate future the 1 slot in NY6 bowl is the only option for best of G5.  i was listening to their ex coach now saying how frustrating it was to have 2 and even 3 loss team talked about above them.  The P5 has frozen G5 out unless they go to 8.  With the incredible money those bowls generate,  i wouldn't be surprised to see them expand the playoffs.  An 8 team playoff could be great for G5 conferences if it included the winner of all P5 conferences and 1 G5 team, plus 2 at large teams.  

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1 hour ago, MWC Tex said:

LOL.....

The MW AD's and presidents didn't want Hawaii as a full member.  I don't think Hawaii wanted a full membership to the MW when the Big West is the best option for them for the non-football sports.  

 

But yeah....guess what BSU and SDSU departures did cause USU and SJSU to be invited.  If that matter so much to BSU/SDSU, they wouldn't have rejoined the MW

I would imagine MW AD's and presidents would want Hawai'i as a full member if it meant we could ditch SJSU right now.

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NMSU's position on the chessboard is one that is ready to walk the desert.

With C-USA and western conferences in relative decline at the FBS level (at least compared to eastern focused conferences and ad money), NMSU has to last long enough for:

1. The market to become more competitive TV/stream wise with ESPN (or the contract money bubble to burst) stablizing the western conferences as it regroups with more revenue vendor choices.

2. A vacancy and/or a need for C-USA to pick them up...or a conference re-creation/reformation to find them.

or

3. a big enough shift overall to be scooped up with the rest of the G5 teams in an overhaul of the sport.

Meanwhile they have to somehow maintain their staffs and leadership long enough for this to happen while combating independent's chaotic scheduling on a modest budget. That's taxing, high maintenance with minimal reward. Thankless.

This is part of the reason why the bowl drought is celebrated as it is this year, with this scenario and notion floating in the back of everyone's mind.

It's a canteen of water, a pat on the back and a "thanks for playing" before watching someone prepare to disappear on the horizon. 

I would put them at around three years. Then a return to FCS. One that will most likely be permanent.

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12 hours ago, LetTheFurFly said:

NMSU's position on the chessboard is one that is ready to walk the desert.

With C-USA and western conferences in relative decline at the FBS level (at least compared to eastern focused conferences and ad money), NMSU has to last long enough for:

1. The market to become more competitive TV/stream wise with ESPN (or the contract money bubble to burst) stablizing the western conferences as it regroups with more revenue vendor choices.

2. A vacancy and/or a need for C-USA to pick them up...or a conference re-creation/reformation to find them.

or

3. a big enough shift overall to be scooped up with the rest of the G5 teams in an overhaul of the sport.

Meanwhile they have to somehow maintain their staffs and leadership long enough for this to happen while combating independent's chaotic scheduling on a modest budget. That's taxing, high maintenance with minimal reward. Thankless.

This is part of the reason why the bowl drought is celebrated as it is this year, with this scenario and notion floating in the back of everyone's mind.

It's a canteen of water, a pat on the back and a "thanks for playing" before watching someone prepare to disappear on the horizon. 

I would put them at around three years. Then a return to FCS. One that will most likely be permanent.

Cool story.  As i have explained multiple times in this thread,  the drop down isn't happening anytime soon if ever, especially when we are sweeping our rivals and going to a bowl game.  As long as G5 conference are willing to not only schedule us, but come play in AMS, we are good.  MWC has really stepped up next four years with Wyoming, UNM (annually), USU, and SDSU booked.  Wyoming kicks off our season next year in Las Cruces and UNM comes down a few weeks later.  I like it.  I might even consider a quick trip up to USU or BYU for one of our away games.  And we play in the Sun Bowl against UTEP which is always fun.  It's a beautiful stadium and right down the road.  You think we give up that schedule to play Idaho State and Montana State?  Never say never, but it certainly isn't happening in the near future.

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6 minutes ago, fanhood said:

Their future is, they likely beat three MWC programs in the first five weeks of next year.

2-1 or 1-2 wouldn't surprise me.  3-0 or 0-3 is highly unlikely.  We have beat UNM 2 years in a row and our def coordinator knows how to play the option.  We return 8 starters on defense.  Should be another good game.  I am curious to see how we match up in the trenches with USU in the bowl game.  Wyoming loses star qb, as do we,  so that should be an interesting game as well.  We'll be starting a new guy in week 1 for the first time in 5 years.  Really going to miss Rogers.  We could score and move the ball every week.  A couple plays here or there and we could have easily had 8 or 9 wins.  

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29 minutes ago, alum93 said:

Cool story.  As i have explained multiple times in this thread,  the drop down isn't happening anytime soon if ever, especially when we are sweeping our rivals and going to a bowl game.  As long as G5 conference are willing to not only schedule us, but come play in AMS, we are good.  MWC has really stepped up next four years with Wyoming, UNM (annually), USU, and SDSU booked.  Wyoming kicks off our season next year in Las Cruces and UNM comes down a few weeks later.  I like it.  I might even consider a quick trip up to USU or BYU for one of our away games.  And we play in the Sun Bowl against UTEP which is always fun.  It's a beautiful stadium and right down the road.  You think we give up that schedule to play Idaho State and Montana State?  Never say never, but it certainly isn't happening in the near future.

What are you guys going to do about Bowl Tie-ins once you are Indy?

I never really thought about it before, because of the Bowl drought, but it would really suck for you guys to perform well next year, get 8 games in the W column and then have to sit at home.

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27 minutes ago, RogueStout said:

What are you guys going to do about Bowl Tie-ins once you are Indy?

I never really thought about it before, because of the Bowl drought, but it would really suck for you guys to perform well next year, get 8 games in the W column and then have to sit at home.

To be honest,  when you are playing the MWC/CUSA/Sun Belt/BiG/BYU over a 12 game schedule,  i think a bowl game isn't a big deal moving forward in comparison to playing FCS.  Sure one extra game would be great, but playing an indy FBS schedule Martin will sell the program on who we are playing week in and week out.  Throw in 2 P5 teams most years and it should work.  Next  2 years to go along with G5, we play Minnesota, Washington State, Alabama, and Mississippi.  P5 games for 2020 haven't been announced yet, but i am sure there will be 2.   Bowl game this year was HUGE this year because it was our last year in Sun Belt and we had been oh so close to winning more games last 2 years, and it had been forever since we had played in one.  The program needed to show it could win more G5 games.  We just couldn't get over the hump and finally did.  

My understanding is there is an agreement that NMSU can play in NM Bowl if eligible, even as indy.  So there is at least one option.  I think i can safely speak for every NMSU fan in saying playing FBS moving forward is way more important than having access to bowl games.  If and when a slot opens up down the road in a conference, it would be great.  But until then,  just stay FBS and scratch and claw for wins like we did this year.  Personally,  i would take a 4 to 5 win season in FBS anyday over a 8 or 9 wins season in FCS simply based off quality of opponents we get to see.  

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I think any MWC fan who doesn't empathize with NMSU (and Idaho for that matter) doesn't have a realistic understanding of how quickly things could change for all of us.

Nobody, not Boise State, CSU, SDSU or anyone else, would be 100% safe if the "big boy" Conferences decided they'd had enough of the NCAA and cut us out to create their own level. Most likely we would all get left out in the cold. 

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3 minutes ago, RogueStout said:

I think any MWC fan who doesn't empathize with NMSU (and Idaho for that matter) doesn't have a realistic understanding of how quickly things could change for all of us.

Nobody, not Boise State, CSU, SDSU or anyone else, would be 100% safe if the "big boy" Conferences decided they'd had enough of the NCAA and cut us out to create their own level. Most likely we would all get left out in the cold. 

Things are just strange right now.  Attendance is going down across the country.  The conference realignment 5-6 years ago has left many programs without traditional rivals,  with many G5 games spread out where people can't drive anymore.  ESPN has your conference playing at midnight in the freezing cold.  i watched the end of the UNM/CSU and UNM/UNLV games and the crowds were puny.  That's not a shot at a rival, it's just ridiculous the start times, all driven by television.  NMSU has a great mid major basketball program, we were just a casualty of the numbers game with a small population.  Here's a story on CUSA attendance and i can't help but think the gap between G5 and P5 is beyond fixing.  But who knows.  Indy certainly isn't going to be easy, but i am glad we are giving it a shot.  If somewhere down the line, as in 5 years or more, we are forced to FCS through lack of resources/funds, inability to schedule, WAC implosion,  i will be glad we put up a fight.  Come on B12,  fall apart already and get the ball rolling :-)  Anyhow, check out some of the attendance numbers in this article.

Conference USA football can celebrate placing a record nine teams in bowl games this season, but there’s little joy for the league when you consider fan interest.

http://amp.sunherald.com/sports/college/conference-usa/article188205609.html

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17 minutes ago, alum93 said:

To be honest,  when you are playing the MWC/CUSA/Sun Belt/BiG/BYU over a 12 game schedule,  i think a bowl game isn't a big deal moving forward in comparison to playing FCS.  Sure one extra game would be great, but playing an indy FBS schedule Martin will sell the program on who we are playing week in and week out.  Throw in 2 P5 teams most years and it should work.  Next  2 years to go along with G5, we play Minnesota, Washington State, Alabama, and Mississippi.  P5 games for 2020 haven't been announced yet, but i am sure there will be 2.   Bowl game this year was HUGE this year because it was our last year in Sun Belt and we had been oh so close to winning more games last 2 years, and it had been forever since we had played in one.  The program needed to show it could win more G5 games.  We just couldn't get over the hump and finally did.  

My understanding is there is an agreement that NMSU can play in NM Bowl if eligible, even as indy.  So there is at least one option.  I think i can safely speak for every NMSU fan in saying playing FBS moving forward is way more important than having access to bowl games.  If and when a slot opens up down the road in a conference, it would be great.  But until then,  just stay FBS and scratch and claw for wins like we did this year.  Personally,  i would take a 4 to 5 win season in FBS anyday over a 8 or 9 wins season in FCS simply based off quality of opponents we get to see.  

I see your point, but I do think the bowl game is important from a motivation standpoint for the players; it gives them something to shoot for in place of a conference championship. But there are enough bowls out there to where I don’t think it’ll be an issue for you guys moving forward. 

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