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RamSack

When will the Stock Market Fall and what can cause it?

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I watch the stock market every day.  I watch my investments every day.  I don't see a major meltdown occurring at least for 2018.  There could be a stock market "correction" happen but would likely be only 5%, obviously just my opinion.  I think the big cap stocks will slow down but there is still plenty of growth that can occur in the small cap stocks. Certain sectors however could go down. Right now consumer goods companies stocks are slumping because people are selling those to buy tech stocks.  However the biggest threats to the market in the short term will likely be foreign issues, such as China or Europe taking a big downturn.  I think Europe is stable and will still grow since they just came out of a long recession.  
Long term, US interest rates going up and the dollar going up over time will slow down the stock market.  Right now I have 40% in large caps, 30% in Euro-Pacific funds and 30% in small caps and income funds.  

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In the long term, millenials retiring is going to cause the market to fall, because there is going to be significantly fewer workers to drive the market. We kinda lucked out with millennials being the shadow boom that takes the spot of retiring baby boomers, but there doesn't seem to be another generation that is as large as those two. Less workers means lower stocks. 

In the short to medium term, internet advertising rates are crashing right now. Only google and facebook are doing ok. That is not great news for venture capitalists in Silicon Valley. Combine that with, say, Amazon seeing only modest growth and all of the sudden the two drivers for real estate value in the West Coast are gone. Yay, another boom/bust in the housing market. 

In the medium term, people are getting more urbanized and it's easier to get around without your car. I see a lot less cars being bought, which means more money in real estate and restaurants, etc- but the car manufacturers are on the stock exchange and those aren't. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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37 minutes ago, happycamper said:

In the long term, millenials retiring is going to cause the market to fall, because there is going to be significantly fewer workers to drive the market. We kinda lucked out with millennials being the shadow boom that takes the spot of retiring baby boomers, but there doesn't seem to be another generation that is as large as those two. Less workers means lower stocks. 

In the short to medium term, internet advertising rates are crashing right now. Only google and facebook are doing ok. That is not great news for venture capitalists in Silicon Valley. Combine that with, say, Amazon seeing only modest growth and all of the sudden the two drivers for real estate value in the West Coast are gone. Yay, another boom/bust in the housing market. 

In the medium term, people are getting more urbanized and it's easier to get around without your car. I see a lot less cars being bought, which means more money in real estate and restaurants, etc- but the car manufacturers are on the stock exchange and those aren't. 

We need to buy a new car for the first time since January 2008.  Amazing to me how expensive they are now.

I know in theory you are better off buying used, and I do that for my work trucks.  But our family car has to be 100% reliable, so we have always bought new and then held onto them for a long time.  Not looking forward to paying for another one.  Haven't had a car payment for 5 years.  Nor do I feel like scratching out a 35-40k check for a new SUV to replace my wifes Acadia.  A small car just won't work for the family car for five of us and all the crap we have to haul around for them.

My 2008 Pontiac (my daily driver) just started knocking too, I'm at 260k on that, was really hoping to get to 300.

Apologies for the non sequiter.

In regards to the stock market, I've been wondering the same thing.  Just can't see where the bubble is right now though. 

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2 hours ago, pokerider said:

I watch the stock market every day.  I watch my investments every day.  I don't see a major meltdown occurring at least for 2018.  There could be a stock market "correction" happen but would likely be only 5%, obviously just my opinion.  I think the big cap stocks will slow down but there is still plenty of growth that can occur in the small cap stocks. Certain sectors however could go down. Right now consumer goods companies stocks are slumping because people are selling those to buy tech stocks.  However the biggest threats to the market in the short term will likely be foreign issues, such as China or Europe taking a big downturn.  I think Europe is stable and will still grow since they just came out of a long recession.  
Long term, US interest rates going up and the dollar going up over time will slow down the stock market.  Right now I have 40% in large caps, 30% in Euro-Pacific funds and 30% in small caps and income funds.  

Pretty much agree with this.  I don't feel as strongly as you about the stability in Europe, but I'm not concerned at this point.  I'm not buying more there though.

The World Needs More Cowboys!

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3 minutes ago, renoskier said:

When will the Stock Market Fall and what can cause it?

It's going to drop dramatically next Tuesday because on Monday I'm moving 60% of my portfolio to cash.

I can't say I've not  thought about moving to cash once or twice this past couple of weeks.

The World Needs More Cowboys!

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21 minutes ago, pokebball said:

I can't say I've not  thought about moving to cash once or twice this past couple of weeks.

Buffet Index:

The Stock Market is Significantly Overvalued.Based on historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (currently at 138.8%), it is likely to return -1.6% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends. 

The thing is, it's been this way for quite awhile; is it still valid?

I am going to start moving some to cash, not 60% but probably 35-40%.

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3 hours ago, happycamper said:

In the long term, millenials retiring is going to cause the market to fall, because there is going to be significantly fewer workers to drive the market.

Wait.....millennials work?

CSU AD Jack Graham - “If you get outside our borders, no one knows who we are. I was in Phoenix (last week) for the Mountain West meetings and there was a reception with all of the athletic directors. The bartender said to me, ‘Colorado State, where are you guys, Boulder?’ I’ve gotten that all my career. No one knows us outside our own boundaries."

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3 minutes ago, pokebball said:

I know you're joking, but millennials work their asses off in my company.

Send them my way...ha

CSU AD Jack Graham - “If you get outside our borders, no one knows who we are. I was in Phoenix (last week) for the Mountain West meetings and there was a reception with all of the athletic directors. The bartender said to me, ‘Colorado State, where are you guys, Boulder?’ I’ve gotten that all my career. No one knows us outside our own boundaries."

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Speaking of this. I saw yesterday on Charlie Rose. That bit coin thing looks like it might explode. The investment banks are looking to get into it. Here is the video:

Bitcoin video

What you think about this? I am still nervous about investing in this, but I might consider a mutual fund with this in it.

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Just now, Rampage said:

Speaking of this. I saw yesterday on Charlie Rose. That bit coin thing looks like it might explode. The investment banks are looking to get into it. Here is the video:

Bitcoin video

What you think about this? I am still nervous about investing in this, but I might consider a mutual fund with this in it.

Image result for ha gay gif

CSU AD Jack Graham - “If you get outside our borders, no one knows who we are. I was in Phoenix (last week) for the Mountain West meetings and there was a reception with all of the athletic directors. The bartender said to me, ‘Colorado State, where are you guys, Boulder?’ I’ve gotten that all my career. No one knows us outside our own boundaries."

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6 minutes ago, WyomingCoog said:

Image result for ha gay gif

If yer gonna day drink and MWCboard at least direct your smack to CSU fans, thx

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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1 minute ago, happycamper said:

If yer gonna day drink and MWCboard at least direct your smack to CSU fans, thx

Damn....my apologies.....I meant to say, CSU Sucks! Now I'm back on track....back to your discussion on fake money. I'd suggest investing in unicorns as a backup plan....but that's just me. 

CSU AD Jack Graham - “If you get outside our borders, no one knows who we are. I was in Phoenix (last week) for the Mountain West meetings and there was a reception with all of the athletic directors. The bartender said to me, ‘Colorado State, where are you guys, Boulder?’ I’ve gotten that all my career. No one knows us outside our own boundaries."

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2 minutes ago, WyomingCoog said:

Damn....my apologies.....I meant to say, CSU Sucks! Now I'm back on track....back to your discussion on fake money. I'd suggest investing in unicorns as a backup plan....but that's just me. 

Dollars are fake money :shrug:

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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Just now, happycamper said:

Dollars are fake money :shrug:

Nope....I just bought my new house and car in bitcoin....super excited about it.....FCSU

CSU AD Jack Graham - “If you get outside our borders, no one knows who we are. I was in Phoenix (last week) for the Mountain West meetings and there was a reception with all of the athletic directors. The bartender said to me, ‘Colorado State, where are you guys, Boulder?’ I’ve gotten that all my career. No one knows us outside our own boundaries."

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3 minutes ago, WyomingCoog said:

Nope....I just bought my new house and car in bitcoin....super excited about it.....FCSU

A lot of people made a shit ton of money on it. Don't be butthurt just because they can fly cats first class when they bought it at ~100 bucks and sold it for millions.

If you'd bought 10 bucks worth of bitcoin in 2010 you'd be worth about a mil and a half today.

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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3 minutes ago, happycamper said:

A lot of people made a shit ton of money on it. Don't be butthurt just because they can fly cats first class when they bought it at ~100 bucks and sold it for millions.

If you'd bought 10 bucks worth of bitcoin in 2010 you'd be worth about a mil and a half today.

Wait....so I can fly my kids first class with bitcoin? Sign me up!

CSU AD Jack Graham - “If you get outside our borders, no one knows who we are. I was in Phoenix (last week) for the Mountain West meetings and there was a reception with all of the athletic directors. The bartender said to me, ‘Colorado State, where are you guys, Boulder?’ I’ve gotten that all my career. No one knows us outside our own boundaries."

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