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ltcpilot

Air Force vs Nevada

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MY DEFINITIVE THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FALCONS MUST DO TO WIN............

AF at 2-4 travels to Nevada at 1-6...TIME FOR A COMPLETE GAME?
More http://ricksfalconreview.blogspot.com/

***************************************
From THE GAZETTE: The Falcons rank 101st in the nation, giving up 31.8 points per game. And those numbers have been particularly gruesome over the past three weeks, with the Falcons giving up 134 points to New Mexico, Navy and UNLV.
But of those 134 points, 55 were scored by the opposition when it started possessions on Air Force’s side of the field. That was also true against Michigan, as the Wolverines kicked three field goals when starting on short fields and added a touchdown on a punt return to account for 16 of their 29 points....MORE...Example: UNLV’s average starting field position on its first nine drives Saturday was the 50-yard line. And the Rebels built a 30-7 lead over that stretch. Its average starting position over its final five drives was its 35, and UNLV was outscored by the Falcons 27-0.
Much talk about the game centered on Air Force’s defensive turnaround in the second half. Well, much of that was simply about which part of the field it started.“We haven’t necessarily been put in the easiest of positions, but that’s the game of football,” Flor said. “I think we’ve responded well as a whole. It’s just up to us to do our job.”
****************************************

WEEKLY RELEASE (per your request) ; http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/afa/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2017-18/release/release_20171016aaa.pdf

After a big comeback win versus UNLV, Air Force travels to 1-6 Nevada to try to get 'on a roll' as they head toward CSU, Army, Wyoming, Boise State and Utah State.   Did anyone watch the Nevada game vs CSU (and how Nevada almost won)?   Did anyone watch the Denver Broncos vs the 0-5 New York Giants (oh...and Denver lost)?   Forget the records in the game.  Both AF and Nevada are 0-0 as far as the players needing to approach this game and the focus they need.  No over confidence.  No 'Cadet Game'.   It's time for AF, no, it's a must for AIR FORCE to play 60 minutes of football and win this game.  And that is a tall task as the Falcons have NOT played 60 minutes of any game outside of the lopsided win over VMI....and that does not count.  

AF and Nevada are very similar except for their coaches.  While  both teams are very young and inexperienced on their overall rosters, Coach Calhoun at AF is the longest tenured coach in the MWC and Coach Norvell of UNR is the newest of coaches in the MWC.  They meet with two teams with great expectations but with the Falcons having the greater expectations coming off a better season last year (2016) than Nevada.  

Nevada comes into this game with 'almost' (sooooo close almost is not even a good word for it) upsetting the Mountain Division's CSU Rams on the road in Ft Collins losing 42-44, leading 42-38 at the end of the 3rd quarter.  They are led by QB Gangi who can run the ball and who can throw the ball. (video:  http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21023525/army-picks-win-second-season-completing-pass  ) He threw "a lot" 25-42 508yards and 4 TDs versus CSU but the team was held to 56 yards on 36 rushing attempts (ouch).   So what do you think they are going to try to do versus Air Force?  Maybe throw the ball?  Nevada has some very good rushers but their strength is their passing game. 

Some comparisons (from the Academy Wars link below):

AFA OFF PPG 36 25.3 NEV OFF PPG
AFA DEF PPG 31.8 35.6 NEV DEF PPG
AFA TOTAL OFF 439.7 392.1 NEV TOTAL OFF
AFA PASSING OFF 133 263.6 NEV PASSING OFF
AFA RUSHING OFF 306.7 128.6 NEV RUSHING OFF
AFA TOTAL DEF 383 495.1 NEV TOTAL DEF
AFA PASSING DEF 127.7 326.1 NEV PASSING DEF
AFA RUSHING DEF 255.3 169 NEV RUSHING DEF
AFA TO MARGIN -0.83 -0.57 NEV TO MARGIN
AFA MASSEY COMP& 86 116 NEV MASSEY COMP

My silly thoughts on key's to the game from a hotel room in front of a computer looking at the stats above and the links/stories below (and maybe having an adult beverage before typing this):

- As the title suggests it is time to play a complete game which we have not done this season.  The two biggest areas which I believe have hurt us 'in retrospect' are not simply the offense or defense, but 1) turnovers and 2) special teams. 

......1)  We have fumbled 17 times (page 2 of this pdf stats  http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/afa/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2017-18/stats/season_stats.pdf  ) and lost 8 of them.  Our opponents have fumbled 9 times and lost 3...that is -5 in my public math.  We have no advantage in interceptions versus our opponents AF having thrown 2 and intercepted 2.   More importantly, without stats to show, our fumbles have mostly been on our side of the 50 yard line as I recall and at timely moments in the game.  

......2) SPECIAL TEAMS= UGLY.   We have had bad snaps on punts; bad snaps on extra points and/or FG's; we have had a fumble on punts; we have been offside (once) on a kickoff; we have kicked out-of-bounds 3 times on kickoffs....WE ARE NOT SOUND right now on special teams. (and had 1 punt (ugh) run back for long yardage. Worst situation was the attempted block on the last play vs SDSU that resulted in penalty for roughing the kicker, SDSU got the ball and our defensive player/starter out for the rest of the game.  If no penalty there, we would have resumed play after the 85 minute weather delay with the ball (approx. 50 yard line with the wind and the rain on the SDSU punt) and a 9-0 lead.  Ouch. 

So ball security and special teams:  **We must take care of the ball and play sound special teams.** 

- We truly have not played two halves of good football this season.  If we can combine the excellent offensive and defensive efforts, even at 80% of the 'proficient' we desire, we win the game. 

-  Pass defense will be critical so our LB and DB's must be helped by a good rush on the DLine. 

- Watch out for Nevada changing things up after watching the NM and Navy games and adding a rushing schemes similar to what they used (and gouged us with) as did UNLV until we made further adjustments 'finally' in the 2nd half. 

- Offense:  Run the offense to include the option, the FULLBACK and the play action.  Nuff said. 

- DO NOT LET THE LATE KICKOFF TIME AFFECT OUR EMOTIONS.  START AT THE OPENING WHISTLE AND FINISH WHEN THE BUZZER SOUNDS.  

Big game and I love this team although I have more gray hair now than I did before the season started.  I love this team because the NEVER quit and I believe the leadership from the seniors and from Arion Worthman at QB exemplify that.  

GO FALCONS BEAT NEVADA.

News and links:

Dissecting the numbers shows hope for Air Force and its maligned defense
http://gazette.com/dissecting-the-numbers-shows-hope-for-air-force-and-its-maligned-defense/article/1613413

Tight football games have become the norm for Air Force in Mountain West action
http://gazette.com/tight-football-games-have-become-the-norm-for-air-force-in-mountain-west-action/article/1613410

Air Force cornerback Jeremy Fejedelem became unlikely college starter, much like NFL brother
http://gazette.com/air-force-cornerback-jeremy-fejedelem-became-unlikely-college-starter-much-like-nfl-brother/article/1613363

First look at Nevada-Air Force: Here comes the triple-option
http://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2017/10/16/first-look-nevada-air-force-here-comes-triple-option/769738001/

AIR FORCE FIRST LOOK: NEVADA
http://airforce.academywars.com/352/air-force-first-look-nevada/

Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Preview and Prediction
http://tinyurl.com/y8tftqy3

Air Force football travels to Nevada
http://tinyurl.com/ybghaxm3

Nevada Preview and Prediction    
http://www.rgj.com/videos/sports/college/nevada/2017/10/18/watch-murrays-90-second-preview-and-prediction-nevada-air-force/106780064/

Nevada vs. Air Force - 10/20/17 College Football Pick, Odds, and ...
http://tinyurl.com/ya9hjphe

WATCH: Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo's heartfelt speech after loss to ...
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/watch-navy-coach-ken-niumatalolos-heartfelt-speech-after-loss-to-memphis/

Army picks up win without completing a pass for second time this ...
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21023525/army-picks-win-second-season-completing-pass

 

..GO FALCONS..

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48 minutes ago, ltcpilot said:

MY DEFINITIVE THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FALCONS MUST DO TO WIN............

AF at 2-4 travels to Nevada at 1-6...TIME FOR A COMPLETE GAME?
More http://ricksfalconreview.blogspot.com/

***************************************
From THE GAZETTE: The Falcons rank 101st in the nation, giving up 31.8 points per game. And those numbers have been particularly gruesome over the past three weeks, with the Falcons giving up 134 points to New Mexico, Navy and UNLV.
But of those 134 points, 55 were scored by the opposition when it started possessions on Air Force’s side of the field. That was also true against Michigan, as the Wolverines kicked three field goals when starting on short fields and added a touchdown on a punt return to account for 16 of their 29 points....MORE...Example: UNLV’s average starting field position on its first nine drives Saturday was the 50-yard line. And the Rebels built a 30-7 lead over that stretch. Its average starting position over its final five drives was its 35, and UNLV was outscored by the Falcons 27-0.
Much talk about the game centered on Air Force’s defensive turnaround in the second half. Well, much of that was simply about which part of the field it started.“We haven’t necessarily been put in the easiest of positions, but that’s the game of football,” Flor said. “I think we’ve responded well as a whole. It’s just up to us to do our job.”
****************************************

WEEKLY RELEASE (per your request) ; http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/afa/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2017-18/release/release_20171016aaa.pdf

After a big comeback win versus UNLV, Air Force travels to 1-6 Nevada to try to get 'on a roll' as they head toward CSU, Army, Wyoming, Boise State and Utah State.   Did anyone watch the Nevada game vs CSU (and how Nevada almost won)?   Did anyone watch the Denver Broncos vs the 0-5 New York Giants (oh...and Denver lost)?   Forget the records in the game.  Both AF and Nevada are 0-0 as far as the players needing to approach this game and the focus they need.  No over confidence.  No 'Cadet Game'.   It's time for AF, no, it's a must for AIR FORCE to play 60 minutes of football and win this game.  And that is a tall task as the Falcons have NOT played 60 minutes of any game outside of the lopsided win over VMI....and that does not count.  

AF and Nevada are very similar except for their coaches.  While  both teams are very young and inexperienced on their overall rosters, Coach Calhoun at AF is the longest tenured coach in the MWC and Coach Norvell of UNR is the newest of coaches in the MWC.  They meet with two teams with great expectations but with the Falcons having the greater expectations coming off a better season last year (2016) than Nevada.  

Nevada comes into this game with 'almost' (sooooo close almost is not even a good word for it) upsetting the Mountain Division's CSU Rams on the road in Ft Collins losing 42-44, leading 42-38 at the end of the 3rd quarter.  They are led by QB Gangi who can run the ball and who can throw the ball. (video:  http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21023525/army-picks-win-second-season-completing-pass  ) He threw "a lot" 25-42 508yards and 4 TDs versus CSU but the team was held to 56 yards on 36 rushing attempts (ouch).   So what do you think they are going to try to do versus Air Force?  Maybe throw the ball?  Nevada has some very good rushers but their strength is their passing game. 

Some comparisons (from the Academy Wars link below):

AFA OFF PPG 36 25.3 NEV OFF PPG
AFA DEF PPG 31.8 35.6 NEV DEF PPG
AFA TOTAL OFF 439.7 392.1 NEV TOTAL OFF
AFA PASSING OFF 133 263.6 NEV PASSING OFF
AFA RUSHING OFF 306.7 128.6 NEV RUSHING OFF
AFA TOTAL DEF 383 495.1 NEV TOTAL DEF
AFA PASSING DEF 127.7 326.1 NEV PASSING DEF
AFA RUSHING DEF 255.3 169 NEV RUSHING DEF
AFA TO MARGIN -0.83 -0.57 NEV TO MARGIN
AFA MASSEY COMP& 86 116 NEV MASSEY COMP

My silly thoughts on key's to the game from a hotel room in front of a computer looking at the stats above and the links/stories below (and maybe having an adult beverage before typing this):

- As the title suggests it is time to play a complete game which we have not done this season.  The two biggest areas which I believe have hurt us 'in retrospect' are not simply the offense or defense, but 1) turnovers and 2) special teams. 

......1)  We have fumbled 17 times (page 2 of this pdf stats  http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/afa/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2017-18/stats/season_stats.pdf  ) and lost 8 of them.  Our opponents have fumbled 9 times and lost 3...that is -5 in my public math.  We have no advantage in interceptions versus our opponents AF having thrown 2 and intercepted 2.   More importantly, without stats to show, our fumbles have mostly been on our side of the 50 yard line as I recall and at timely moments in the game.  

......2) SPECIAL TEAMS= UGLY.   We have had bad snaps on punts; bad snaps on extra points and/or FG's; we have had a fumble on punts; we have been offside (once) on a kickoff; we have kicked out-of-bounds 3 times on kickoffs....WE ARE NOT SOUND right now on special teams. (and had 1 punt (ugh) run back for long yardage. Worst situation was the attempted block on the last play vs SDSU that resulted in penalty for roughing the kicker, SDSU got the ball and our defensive player/starter out for the rest of the game.  If no penalty there, we would have resumed play after the 85 minute weather delay with the ball (approx. 50 yard line with the wind and the rain on the SDSU punt) and a 9-0 lead.  Ouch. 

So ball security and special teams:  **We must take care of the ball and play sound special teams.** 

- We truly have not played two halves of good football this season.  If we can combine the excellent offensive and defensive efforts, even at 80% of the 'proficient' we desire, we win the game. 

-  Pass defense will be critical so our LB and DB's must be helped by a good rush on the DLine. 

- Watch out for Nevada changing things up after watching the NM and Navy games and adding a rushing schemes similar to what they used (and gouged us with) as did UNLV until we made further adjustments 'finally' in the 2nd half. 

- Offense:  Run the offense to include the option, the FULLBACK and the play action.  Nuff said. 

- DO NOT LET THE LATE KICKOFF TIME AFFECT OUR EMOTIONS.  START AT THE OPENING WHISTLE AND FINISH WHEN THE BUZZER SOUNDS.  

Big game and I love this team although I have more gray hair now than I did before the season started.  I love this team because the NEVER quit and I believe the leadership from the seniors and from Arion Worthman at QB exemplify that.  

GO FALCONS BEAT NEVADA.

News and links:

Dissecting the numbers shows hope for Air Force and its maligned defense
http://gazette.com/dissecting-the-numbers-shows-hope-for-air-force-and-its-maligned-defense/article/1613413

Tight football games have become the norm for Air Force in Mountain West action
http://gazette.com/tight-football-games-have-become-the-norm-for-air-force-in-mountain-west-action/article/1613410

Air Force cornerback Jeremy Fejedelem became unlikely college starter, much like NFL brother
http://gazette.com/air-force-cornerback-jeremy-fejedelem-became-unlikely-college-starter-much-like-nfl-brother/article/1613363

First look at Nevada-Air Force: Here comes the triple-option
http://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2017/10/16/first-look-nevada-air-force-here-comes-triple-option/769738001/

AIR FORCE FIRST LOOK: NEVADA
http://airforce.academywars.com/352/air-force-first-look-nevada/

Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Preview and Prediction
http://tinyurl.com/y8tftqy3

Air Force football travels to Nevada
http://tinyurl.com/ybghaxm3

Nevada Preview and Prediction    
http://www.rgj.com/videos/sports/college/nevada/2017/10/18/watch-murrays-90-second-preview-and-prediction-nevada-air-force/106780064/

Nevada vs. Air Force - 10/20/17 College Football Pick, Odds, and ...
http://tinyurl.com/ya9hjphe

WATCH: Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo's heartfelt speech after loss to ...
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/watch-navy-coach-ken-niumatalolos-heartfelt-speech-after-loss-to-memphis/

Army picks up win without completing a pass for second time this ...
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21023525/army-picks-win-second-season-completing-pass

Nice work pilot, rather depressing for Nevada fans if you look at the stats objectively.  The closest we have come to playing a complete game was last weekend in Colorado - at least offensively speaking.  We haven't been able to get consistent stops on the defensive end as of yet.  I watched Air Force play twice now and there is very simply no quit in your guys and their conditioning is without an equal comparison.  Here is to a good hard fought game with no major injuries!  Go Pack!

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I took AFA for a solid W in this one in the GTS.  However, if I were a gambler I would absolutely take the over.  AFA's D will not even slow down that Air Raid, and there is no way in hell I see the Nevada D shutting down the option for 4 quarters.  I get the whole "starting field position on the drive" thing, but the fact is that Mumme will force your D into make the wrong choice and will burn you on that.  Just plan on it.  OTOH, Nevada will be out of position and get blocked out of the play against that option.  Respect for both teams, but I think the O vs D matchup absolutely benefits the O on both sides of the ball.

Now watch it be a 5-3 win for one of you.  :D

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7 minutes ago, Headbutt said:

I took AFA for a solid W in this one in the GTS.  However, if I were a gambler I would absolutely take the over.  AFA's D will not even slow down that Air Raid, and there is no way in hell I see the Nevada D shutting down the option for 4 quarters.  I get the whole "starting field position on the drive" thing, but the fact is that Mumme will force your D into make the wrong choice and will burn you on that.  Just plan on it.  OTOH, Nevada will be out of position and get blocked out of the play against that option.  Respect for both teams, but I think the O vs D matchup absolutely benefits the O on both sides of the ball.

Now watch it be a 5-3 win for one of you.  :D

3-2 would be better. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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Not expecting a large crowd tonight.  Friday night game and it’s cold. It snowed last night. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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17 minutes ago, mugtang said:

Not expecting a large crowd tonight.  Friday night game and it’s cold. It snowed last night. 

Friday night , snow in the mountains , Subaru running crappy, and travelled for work all week ... never had a chance getting up there tonight.

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