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FresnoFanatic

MW Board consensus: Upcoming tv contract value

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The math that is interesting is not how to do percentages, but the game theory related to bidding.  The most favorable scenarios in a bidding game usually result from their being three or more bidders, and if AT&T, Fox and NBC are all interested then even if ESPN decides not  to put real money on the table, there are still enough other bids that the winning bid should be higher.

As Mug mentioned above and I've gone on at length about in other posts, there are 4 'windows' for college football and only the Mountain West, Pac 12 and BYU can play in the last window i.e. window 4.  

The Pac 12 (I'm an alum/fan) is going to place more emphasis on the Pac 12 Network because we own 100% of it.  Jon Wilner speculates from time to time on what the conference's plan is for the Pac 12 network is so you can read his columns if you want to go down that rabbit hole, but if you have to make a guess in 2020 whether the Pac 12 network will seek to be more or less competitive with ESPN/FS1 the cautious assumption is that the Pac 12 will be more, not less, of a direct competitor.  It's been speculated by reasonable people that the Pac 12 will focus on an NFL style multiple broadcast rights package with major networks in Window 4 and keep all cable rights to ourselves.  If that's a confusing explanation, its saying we'd have a Fox, ABC and CBS game (maybe NBC too?) under the terms that this is a national broadcast; if it's a Pac 12 game on cable, its going to be on Pac 12 network, so that we can get higher subscription fees for our network/ advertising dollars.

The MW could be in a very favorable position if the above circumstance is a big concern to ESPN because ESPN needs more window 4 content than BYU alone can provide, and if the Pac 12 explicitly does not want to sell games to ESPN, Fox Sports 1 we are perfectly capable of doing so and still monetizing those games.

Plus, the Mountain division is the best football division no one in America is really watching.  The West gets a lot more favorable coverage despite the division matchups that don't really have any good games.  The Mountain division will have at least one, probably two key matchups among the five teams who've all recently been bowl eligible every year.  If the next two years are like the past two years, the Mountain West will be perceived as a very good on the field product in markets that aren't that big.  the MWC would have a lot of upside if the quality of play is at the same level it's been recently.  IMHO its better than some ACC football (e.g. Syracuse v. Boston College).

Of course, good scenarios for the MW to leverage this TV negotiation probably would rely on much less acrimony between members than the last go around.  The big thing to watch is how Boise's administration is dealing with the MW conference leadership.  Despite fan sentiment, there is absolutely zero indication that SDSU is wavering as a result of this negotiation. 

Generally, if everyone's on the same page and there really are three or more serious bidders the % estimates in earlier posts are not unreasonable expectations.

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1 minute ago, aztech said:

I question how seriously Fox and NBC view college sports. 

I think fox is serious but I agree about NBC. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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I think that anywhere there is both a Mountain West school and a regional sports network affiliated with a network creates potential interest.  Production costs will be much lower when the existing RSN handles that and the cable network just broadcasts that feed nationally.

Fox Sports in San Diego would create FS1 interest in this kind of scenario.  AT&T and Root Sports has a huge amount of overlap and so there is speculation that AT&T would have interest because of that (revived MW network?).  NBC/Comcast can do Fresno and San Jose State so there might be some NBC sports interest based on that.

I suppose there will be at least two rights holders, but as I mentioned for the Pac 12, the MW could have three or more different rights holders too.  It's not impossible to imagine Colorado State v. Air Force, Boise State v. New Mexico and San Diego State v. anybody being broadcast on Fox, NBC and AT&T at the same time in Window 4.

Hopefully ESPN realizes this and walks in with a bid that makes the MW much closer in revenue to the Pac 12 and makes it necessary for ESPN to pass on retaining the rights to the American in addition to the MW.  Ideally interest in both the MW and the American make ESPN have to pick one or the other - I'm pretty confident they have plenty of programming in the time slots the American can offer with ACC network and SEC network games.

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12 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I think fox is serious but I agree about NBC. 

Accessibility and production quality are what I care about as a fan. CBSSN has the worst of both. Fox, ESPN, and NBC all do a better job. Can we find someone to pay us more than CBSSN? 

There are only two things I can't stand in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures and the Dutch. 

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A whole lot rests on Fox and AT&T getting in.  CBS and ESPN have a contract so you know they are at the table.

Contracts have a good faith obligation to meet and seek an agreement.  I interpreted Craig Thompson's statement that they could do without the bad start times if it meant there was better starts times as a pretty thinly veiled shot at ESPN/CBS to pay more because the amount doesn't compensate the universities enough.  

That 'Window 4' is a significant part of ESPN's business and they cant' survive with just BYU and some Pac 12 games through 2024.  If ESPN doesn't pay what the MW asks for Window 4, there isn't an alternative at anything close to the same price because the Pac 12 is going to want national broadcast dollars for anything we don't broadcast ourselves.

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9 minutes ago, Bruininthebay said:

A whole lot rests on Fox and AT&T getting in.  CBS and ESPN have a contract so you know they are at the table.

Contracts have a good faith obligation to meet and seek an agreement.  I interpreted Craig Thompson's statement that they could do without the bad start times if it meant there was better starts times as a pretty thinly veiled shot at ESPN/CBS to pay more because the amount doesn't compensate the universities enough.  

That 'Window 4' is a significant part of ESPN's business and they cant' survive with just BYU and some Pac 12 games through 2024.  If ESPN doesn't pay what the MW asks for Window 4, there isn't an alternative at anything close to the same price because the Pac 12 is going to want national broadcast dollars for anything we don't broadcast ourselves.

I don't think the MW wants to play in the window 4 slot very much anymore.  It will be interesting to see if dollars or start times win out.

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My understanding is that the MW's position is that $18 million ain't even close to what a Window 4 game is worth because of how much it impacts the fan atmosphere.  I would guess emphasizing fan experience is a subjective point but if fans are becoming alienated by start times that don't take into account their schedule, Mountain West schools that all would like to attract more fans aren't able to because the schedule isn't conducive to doing so.  Personally, I think that varying the start times hurts many schools because its needed to grow fans at the games.  Scheduling SJSU games during the week isn't something that should happen because it's one of the craziest traffic situations you can imagine.

 I think it's smart to set a dollar amount high enough that you either get what you want or you take your chances that getting Fox, AT&T and possibly NBC involved will get you close to that number or better.

I would guess that NBC's primary interest is the American because Temple is based in Philadelphia where Comcast is based.  You can't get Comcast Philadelphia on any satellite providers too - Comcast has gotten everyone paid off in Pennsylvania because that's how that state works.  Comcast is actually territorial within this market and the American would be the ideal college football product for NBC Sports Network because it helps the network in Florida and Texas

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10 minutes ago, Wyobraska said:

I don't think the MW wants to play in the window 4 slot very much anymore.  It will be interesting to see if dollars or start times win out.

Maybe not, but it's hard to get daytime slots when they have the entire East coast and Midwest teams playing at those times.

Would you see some sort of a streaming package or local package making up the downfall in revenue if they moved away from teh current model?

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3 hours ago, mugtang said:

I think the MWC is in a unique position as we can fill later time slots for ESPN, CBS, etc.  They need content at 7/8/9pm Pacific.  I think we will get $28million a year. Because why not?

 

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE NO MORE CBS Sports Net, unless of course their cable clearance drastically improves!!!

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1 minute ago, Bruininthebay said:

My understanding is that the MW's position is that $18 million ain't even close because of how much it impacts the family atmosphere for fans.  I would guess emphasizing fan experience is a subjective point but if fans are becoming alienated by start times that don't take into account their schedule, Mountain West schools that all would like to attract more fans aren't able to because the schedule isn't conducive to doing so.  Personally, I think that varying the start times hurts many schools because its needed to grow fans at the games.

 I think it's smart to set a dollar amount high enough that you either get what you want or you take your chances that getting Fox, AT&T and possibly NBC involved will get you close to that number or better.

I would guess that NBC's primary interest is the American because Temple is based in Philadelphia where Comcast is based.  You can't get Comcast Philadelphia on any satellite providers too - Comcast has gotten everyone paid off in Pennsylvania because that's how that state works.  Comcast is actually territorial within this market and the American would be the ideal college football product for NBC Sports Network because it helps the network in Florida and Texas

Isn't attendance in college football basically down across the board?  

We have season tickets but there's times when we skip and watch at home or sell the tickets because it's a long deal to go down there and take the time out.  With the late starts, it gets pretty late for my kids.  

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2 minutes ago, Jack Bauer said:

Maybe not, but it's hard to get daytime slots when they have the entire East coast and Midwest teams playing at those times.

Would you see some sort of a streaming package or local package making up the downfall in revenue if they moved away from teh current model?

No, I don't think the money will be there if they don't play the late games.  It will be interesting to see if the MW chooses the money and less desirable time slots or if they take less money with more control over games.  I think it would be a tough sell to the schools to take less money.  

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If there is a game of chicken about who needs a national cable  sports network contract, i would bet most MW schools could get a regional sports network contract that would be at least to $1.6 million for a season of broadcasts.

The cable networks can't feed their families without the MW or the Pac 12 contracts.  Guess who blinks when you play hardball?

One seller and four buyers is usually considered a sellers market.  The Pac 12 isn't going to sell our window 4 rights cheaply either because pac 12 fans don't like that shit any more than MW fans. 

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1 minute ago, Wyobraska said:

No, I don't think the money will be there if they don't play the late games.  It will be interesting to see if the MW chooses the money and less desirable time slots or if they take less money with more control over games.  I think it would be a tough sell to the schools to take less money.  

That's what I think.  Same goes for my school.  

BYU has their own broadcast stuff and a channel they can use.  Monetizing that is another story.  

I think ESPN will re-up with BYU with a slight increase because we have some really desirable programs on our schedule at the beginning of the next negotiation period.  That said, I am not sure the way we watch our teams will be how we do now in a few years.

I could see teams monetizing their games by selling small regional packages of a single team, (x) amount for all home games or something of that sort.  Maybe you pay some station in Colorado ten bucks as a Wyoming fan to stream the CSU/Wyoming game in Ft Collins to your TV, like a PPV if cable isn't a thing anymore going forward.  Sometimes the local television will step up and broadcast it, back in the day all the BYU games were on KSL.  I don't know how other programs have viewed their teams over the years.

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1 hour ago, Wyobraska said:

No, I don't think the money will be there if they don't play the late games.  It will be interesting to see if the MW chooses the money and less desirable time slots or if they take less money with more control over games.  I think it would be a tough sell to the schools to take less money.  

Which makes more money?  Attendance increase or TV revenue?  Other than very few exceptions we can't have it both ways.  I would defer to TV revenue to compensate for "down" years that everyone goes through.   

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Just now, aztech said:

Which makes more money?  Attendance increase or TV revenue?  Other than very few exceptions we can't have it both ways.  

Does getting a few more thousand to games that occur during the day offset the revenue from playing at night?  

I'd want night games in SD if it was me.  I don't mind night games here, but in the later parts of the year it can get pretty cold.

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ESPN only broadcast 5 non-Boise/non-BYU MWC Saturday games last year on ESPN2. (None on ESPN). There were also 3 or 4 on ESPNU. 

I'm not sure ESPN needs the MWC for that late 10pm ET kickoff as much as some may think....

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