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Phil Steele Picks CSU to win MW.

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47 minutes ago, Jack Bauer said:

So, let's do the math.  There's an 8.5% chance of causing a turnover there due to the sack, and then add the probability of getting a safety on that sort of play and your percentage goes even lower than 8.5%(0.085 x whatever the probability of getting a safety is).  There was little to no probability that you win that game at that point on a sack that resulted in a fumble that resulted in a safety.   

I'm pretty comfortable saying it was a fluke.  If you guys don't think it was a fluke that you beat what was probably a better overall team on your homefield on a very unlikely play, then you're certainly entitled to think so.  Wyoming lost to several teams last year that were worse teams than Boise.  So yes, I think it was fluky that you beat them on a play like that.  You guys played hard, and hung in there against Boise and SDSU the next week, and deserved what you got as far as winning your division and I'm not trying to discredit that fact.  

Did you watch the game?  If not here you go Youtube 2016 BSU @ WYO 

You are missing the forest for the trees.  Even if it doesn't go for a safety or recovered for a defensive TD, if it is a turnover, it is Wyoming ball within the 10 yard line with plenty of time left (1:26 left).  Something fluky would have had to happen to prevent Wyoming from scoring.  If Boise St. recovers they are facing third and long pinned inside their 5.  Could they convert sure, but that is not an easy play to execute.  If they don't convert you are looking at punting backed up to your endzone with about 50-60 seconds of game time left (Wyoming had three timeouts left). Fluky is a punter dropping a football on what should be a routine punt and having that fumble returned 45 yards for the go ahead and winning score.

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15 minutes ago, VandalPride97 said:

An unlikely result perhaps, but at least you didn't try to convince people it was a trick play and give it an absurd name (see: BSU fans calling a fake punt "The Riddler").

Isn't that the name of the play? As in the coach calls it in order to communicate to the team what play he wants them to run?

Like "Circus"?

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6 hours ago, Jack Bauer said:

I agree, but I've seen too many times when teams or fans think they've suddenly turned the corner because of this type of stuff.  Ultimately it doesn't matter what we think, either the tides will change or it won't.  I get that things are cyclical in college football, but Boise has repeatedly shown they are above everyone not named SDSU in this league.

First it was, "Boise has your number and things will never change!!!" Now it's, "the tides will change or they won't." Thanks for that astute observation Captain Obvious.

Jack *Momo showing some fine moves right here on the MWCBOARD.

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*For reference: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=MOMO&amp=true

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1 hour ago, VandalPride97 said:

An unlikely result perhaps, but at least you didn't try to convince people it was a trick play and give it an absurd name (see: BSU fans calling a fake punt "The Riddler").

All plays have a name (fake or not). If a play is called "The Riddler" then the play is called The Riddler regardless of what fans say. In this case the play was named after the coach who drew up the play, special teams coach Kent Riddle (<----- see the play on words?). It's not really overzealous fans, it's just fans that happened to read the paper or watch the coaches being interviewed after one of the multiple times they used the play.

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1 hour ago, LaradiseCowboy said:

First it was, "Boise has your number and things will never change!!!" Now it's, "the tides will change or they won't." Thanks for that astute observation Captain Obvious.

Jack *Momo showing some fine moves right here on the MWCBOARD.

 

Boise has your number.

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8 hours ago, Headbutt said:

This will not be "no big deal" if Bobo get's hired away.  Yes, we should be able to find a good coach.  However, now we are also talking about changing systems, new coordinators, etc.  It matters.

I'm not nearly as impressed with the guy as so many of you. Good coach but nothing special - about a 6 on a 10 scale - and with that new stadium CSU should be able to find somebody better if you really work at it.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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2 hours ago, LaradiseCowboy said:

First it was, "Boise has your number and things will never change!!!" Now it's, "the tides will change or they won't." Thanks for that astute observation Captain Obvious.

Jack *Momo showing some fine moves right here on the MWCBOARD.

IMG_1468.GIF.b30eaa8a7a79963bf1b07986cda9bd42.GIF

*For reference: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=MOMO&amp=true

Surprised how @Jack Bauer factual analysis of Boise consistently beating Wyoming has you Wyoming fans rustled. Or is it the "fluke" assessment? 

There are only two things I can't stand in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures and the Dutch. 

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9 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

I'm not nearly as impressed with the guy as so many of you. Good coach but nothing special - about a 6 on a 10 scale - and with that new stadium CSU should be able to find somebody better if you really work at it.

All the Bobo questions will be answered in year three.  

Can he beat a P5 team? He has one at home

Will he lose three straight to cu?

Can he beat Boise?

Can he compete for a MW title?

He will get year four regardless but all of the air could be out of his balloon.

 

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4 minutes ago, Castle Ram said:

All the Bobo questions will be answered in year three.  

Can he beat a P5 team? He has one at home

Will he lose three straight to cu?

Can he beat Boise?

Can he compete for a MW title?

He will get year four regardless but all of the air could be out of his balloon.

 

Air out of his balloon?  His team will be a year older (theyre pretty loaded with young players) and he'll have players like Collin Hill, Preston Williams, Marvin Kinsey Jr. and a host of others available.  CSU will be better in 2017 and even better in 2018.

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35 minutes ago, SleepingGiantsFan said:

I'm not nearly as impressed with the guy as so many of you. Good coach but nothing special - about a 6 on a 10 scale - and with that new stadium CSU should be able to find somebody better if you really work at it.

I'll admit that I'm higher on the guy than most.  Mac didn't recruit worth a crap on D and left Bobo with some real holes on that side of the ball.  He's done pretty well for only two years at the job IMO.  He's made some real mistakes, but has corrected a lot of them.  His offense is very dangerous, it's on defense that we have struggled.  Young, inexperienced, learning a new system.  They've had some bad games, they also shut down the best RB in the country, pitched a shutout (against a bad team), and have improved steadily every game.  Their first game against the option they were a sieve, then they faced another option team (top rushing team in the country) the next week and held them to well under their average.  

Bobo ain't Saban, but he's better than advertised IMO.

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10 hours ago, Swoll Cracker said:

Air out of his balloon?  His team will be a year older (theyre pretty loaded with young players) and he'll have players like Collin Hill, Preston Williams, Marvin Kinsey Jr. and a host of others available.  CSU will be better in 2017 and even better in 2018.

  He may have plenty returning in 2018 but without greater success than 7&6 in 2017 very few will believe in the guy.  Either OSU or cu is a must win for him. Lose to all three P5 teams or cu three straight times, yes the air will be out of Bobo's balloon.

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18 hours ago, Jimbo_Poke said:

Who said anything about turned corners?  I am talking specifically about the 2016 game.  The fluke of that play was that the ball bounced out of the end zone for a safety and not recovered for a touchdown by the defense.  

Did you watch/listen to the game or only the game winning highlight, or did you even watch that?  

Lets use another example.  The 2015 Michigan St. - Michigan  game was a far more fluky game than 2016 BSU-Wyoming could hope to be.  That Michigan State had won 6 of the past 7 before that game make the game less fluky?  No, what determines whether a game is a fluke is how that particular game was played, not the historical record between the two teams.  If you look at how Wyoming moved the ball in the second half, that is not fluky football. 

My main point of style of offenses, is that what matters more is how well you can execute your offensive system.  Bohl and his pro style is 1-2 not good, but a lot better than DC and his spread who went 0-4.   

 

If only Boise continued to run the ball...averaging 10 yards a carry or whatever with a nice lead and start airing it out for style points.  Stupid.  Probably Harsin's worst coaching job to date.  No way Boise should have lost that game.

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42 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

If only Boise continued to run the ball...averaging 10 yards a carry or whatever with a nice lead and start airing it out for style points.  Stupid.  Probably Harsin's worst coaching job to date.  No way Boise should have lost that game.

I have seen this from you before and I think you are being a bit harsh on Harsin.

Look at BSU runs in the 2nd half (rush-pass)

1st possession - false start on first play sets BSU back no rush attempts three passes - punt (0-3)

1 yd, 3 yds, 11 Alexander Mattison, 15 Mattison - punt (4-5)

-1yd - punt (1-2)

8 yds, 3 yds - TD with 67 yds through the air (2-3)

This drive  hurts your argument apart three rushes than a penalty for a three and out

9, -1, 1 (by Rypien) - punt (3-0)

Final drive this is what sticks with you as this is two pass attempts backed up to your endzone. (0-2)  I agree lack of a rush attempt here somewhat baffles me.  My guess with 1:38 Harsin did not want to go to overtime and in this half the big gains were through the air.  Didn't work, but rushing did not work either in the previous drive.  Wyoming had made adjustments and was doing better against the run.  

Total for second half (10-15) this is not abandoning the run.  

Keep in mind BSU never had a two score lead in the second half.  I don't know about you but 4 points is not a nice lead, 8 is border line, but Wyoming got a TD on the next possession to tie it.

 

13 hours ago, madmartigan said:

Surprised how @Jack Bauer factual analysis of Boise consistently beating Wyoming has you Wyoming fans rustled. Or is it the "fluke" assessment? 

I won't argue BSU has had Wyoming's number, it shouldn't come as a surprise.  BSU's time in the sun has come at the lowest point in Cowboys football since before the 1950's (1997-2015).  My beef is when you consider the amount of player and coaching turnover in this game to think that BSU win in 2005 or 2015 has a bearing on the 2016 game being a fluke game.  Fluke indicates a great deal of luck and Wyoming did not win that game on luck.  It is why I made the point of the 2015 Michigan State - Michigan game.  Even though Michigan State had won 6 of the past 7, they won the 2015 game on a very fluky play.  That is a fluky game even though the victor had the more recent success in the series.  To tie back into the original point of this thread.  If CSU is ready to take the next step like some of their fans hope (not necessarily buying it, we shall see), but IF they are and they come out this year with a good to great team that is better in 2017 than the 2017 BSU team that matters more to the 2017 game than what happened in the past.  

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11 minutes ago, Jack Bauer said:

You guys are right.  Teams win games all the time on safeties from a fumble that occurred because of a sack.  There is nothing weird or fluky about how that went down at all.

 

I dont know where this weird or fluky stuff comes from. Rypien felt pressure and ran right into that sack that resulted in the safety.

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17 hours ago, kingpotato said:

All plays have a name (fake or not). If a play is called "The Riddler" then the play is called The Riddler regardless of what fans say. In this case the play was named after the coach who drew up the play, special teams coach Kent Riddle (<----- see the play on words?). It's not really overzealous fans, it's just fans that happened to read the paper or watch the coaches being interviewed after one of the multiple times they used the play.

While that may be the case, at the zenith of BSU's trick play calling, some tool looked at the camera, arched an eyebrow as if something incredibly brilliant just happened and said "we like to call that one 'The Riddler'" You have to admit the trickeration cupboard started to look a bit bare around that time.

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1 hour ago, Jimbo_Poke said:

I have seen this from you before and I think you are being a bit harsh on Harsin.

Look at BSU runs in the 2nd half (rush-pass)

1st possession - false start on first play sets BSU back no rush attempts three passes - punt (0-3)

1 yd, 3 yds, 11 Alexander Mattison, 15 Mattison - punt (4-5)

-1yd - punt (1-2)

8 yds, 3 yds - TD with 67 yds through the air (2-3)

This drive  hurts your argument apart three rushes than a penalty for a three and out

9, -1, 1 (by Rypien) - punt (3-0)

Final drive this is what sticks with you as this is two pass attempts backed up to your endzone. (0-2)  I agree lack of a rush attempt here somewhat baffles me.  My guess with 1:38 Harsin did not want to go to overtime and in this half the big gains were through the air.  Didn't work, but rushing did not work either in the previous drive.  Wyoming had made adjustments and was doing better against the run.  

Total for second half (10-15) this is not abandoning the run.  

Keep in mind BSU never had a two score lead in the second half.  I don't know about you but 4 points is not a nice lead, 8 is border line, but Wyoming got a TD on the next possession to tie it.

 

I won't argue BSU has had Wyoming's number, it shouldn't come as a surprise.  BSU's time in the sun has come at the lowest point in Cowboys football since before the 1950's (1997-2015).  My beef is when you consider the amount of player and coaching turnover in this game to think that BSU win in 2005 or 2015 has a bearing on the 2016 game being a fluke game.  Fluke indicates a great deal of luck and Wyoming did not win that game on luck.  It is why I made the point of the 2015 Michigan State - Michigan game.  Even though Michigan State had won 6 of the past 7, they won the 2015 game on a very fluky play.  That is a fluky game even though the victor had the more recent success in the series.  To tie back into the original point of this thread.  If CSU is ready to take the next step like some of their fans hope (not necessarily buying it, we shall see), but IF they are and they come out this year with a good to great team that is better in 2017 than the 2017 BSU team that matters more to the 2017 game than what happened in the past.  

Actually those drives solidify my point, thank  you.

Keep it on the ground and Boise wins.  Freaking Harsin.

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On 6/19/2017 at 8:23 AM, Jack Bauer said:

And you'll always be one of the top 5 dumbest members of the board to me.  Right up there with Huge Dump, FalesCarr, and other idiots that don't know anything about sports.  Only a delusional Wyoming fan would be able to spin a fluky win and going 1-10 against a team in to some sort of "big change" coming on the horizon.

Jacks magic undies are always so bunched up that I'm beginning to think that is their natural state. He's lucky his ass cheeks are so god damn tight that they still don't manage to tickle his little quivering poop hole. 

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