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RAMification

PAC 14, maybe growing to 16 ...

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Pac 12 administrators launched their own network so they aren't about to act like the revenue suckS.  

Personally I think they have too many channels and too much overhead but that would mean better management can get more money without getting Direct TV.

 I subscribed to Sling TV and for $5 I get PAC 12 networks seven channels.  I think every over the top service will add it to a sports extra soon.

ultimately athletic directors are accountable to a university president who certainly cares about the bottom line and may or may not like football.  Every pac 12 school is a place where the administration keeps student athletics in perspective, except Oregon because of Nike and USC because of scandals 

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2 hours ago, RAMification said:

CSU -- will get an invite, NOT due to their own Greatness on the Field, etc..... but due to the correctly perceived need for Dual Flagships in each state + its Academics being near AAU status (further ahead than OkU) + it's Sports improvements + it's uber awesome new On-Campus 42k Stadium.  It's gonna be nip & tuck re the "Sports Improvements" as any great HC's they develop will get hired away almost immediately.

BYU -- the P12 will eventuallybecome humbled enough to "hold their snobby noses" and do their best to COOP the Borg's competitive Fball program... while keeping them at Legs Length away.   :) 

CSU is going nowhere.  

The average sports fan doesn't give a shit about dual flagships. 

If the PAC expands they aren't going to add bottom feeders  

 

"Don't underestimate Joe Biden's ability to F@*k things up."

Barack Obama

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2 hours ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Sorry, they aren't grabbing CSU because of a single low-tier rivalry.  Now that subscribers are the larger rationale, they have no need to double dip Boulder, or SLC for that matter.  To be clear, they aren't grabbing SDSU either.  No team in the MWC makes sense to move up to the PAC.  None.

This is correct.  It also underscores my belief that if there were a B12 expansion that CSU would be high on the list.  Conferences are looking for TV markets, not travel partners.  PAC12 is in the Denver market.  They would experience a greater market share if they had two CO schools, but not sure it would be enough to offset the additional split in revenue.  The B12 OTOH had the Denver market and lost it.  I believe that they would be interested in not only what share that CSU would bring, but also the additional exposure for the conference overall due to expanding the marketing footprint.  To a far lesser extent, CSU might get some interest from the B1G for the same reason, as in getting B10 network on a lower cable tier and garnering more viewers as a result.  I'm not holding my breath on that one though, and don't believe there would even be a conversation until when and IF CSU gains AAU status.

IMO, if the Pac12 were to expand they would first look at the obviously discussed ad nauseum TX/OK deal.  Beyond that, I'd see SDSU and Hawaii.  SDSU will start to realize an increase in market value with the disappearance of the Chargers, and Hawaii is obvious.  Academics can be promised like a SJSU NE project.  If they really wanted to expand, those two would get a long look as the second tier prospects.

Realistically though, we're all in the MWC for the far foreseeable future.  We need to lean on the anchors to step up their game, and we need the top to schedule and win a P5 slate.  That is all we can do.  AAC talks about being P6, we need to let our performance do the talking.

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Pac-12's revenues went up when the P12N was added to Sling TV.  If it gets added to DirecTV Now and Playstation Vue, it will go up.

I will copy and paste my response to this that I did on the P12Board.

Quote

Oklahoma is already laying the groundwork for its eventual exit from the Big 12.  I would not bet on OU or even Texas coming to the Pac-12 at this point.  The OU fanbase is strongly in favor of a SEC move and OU knows all too well about CU's struggles when the Buffs were in the Big 12 due to a large number of CU alums being on the west coast.  

Texas clearly can go independent at this point and they can even rake in the $ doing so and trust me, the appeal of doing that is there for the Longhorns.  All they have to do is find a conference home for their other sports and they are set.  The AAC & ACC is certainly an option in that case.  Norte Dame and Texas as travel partners in the ACC?  Think about that.

And there's the timezone factor that I have brought up many times on this forum.  I don't think OU or Texas wants to frequently travel to places more than one timezone away.  Texas A&M's then AD made a huge point about the student athletes getting back home to College Station just before the rooster crowed from tourney games in the Pacific Northwest.  Austin and Norman's location in the Central Time Zone isn't much different from College Station.  UT and OU do have the money to support travel but they aren't stupid either.

And AH is concerned about losing coaches...I honestly am not worried because there is more than enough coaches willing to coach at a lower pay since they don't face the same kind of scrutiny head coaches face in the B1G, Big 12, and SEC.  Take WSU's Leach for example.  He had offers all over the country and could have gone anywhere.  OSU's Andersen will never get the kind of support at OSU like he did at Wisconsin but he went back for a reason and it's because the west fits him better than the midwest.  Any Pac-12 fan that have dissed Pullman needs to just shut up and go visit Stillwater, Lubbock, Ames, Waco, and Manhattan.  Pullman beats those locales easily.  There is a reason why those coaches might be getting more money because they are having to work harder to convince kids to go to those locales versus locales in the Pac-12.  There is another reason why the MWC was one of the better mid-major conference for years as well.

As for the OSU/WSU dilemma, you Pac-10 fans are so spoiled.  In the Big 12, there was Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State pre-Boone Pickens.  That is five programs very similar to OSU/WSU.  And you are willing to add to that group with TT & Okie State in order to bring in OU and Texas?  If you are already bickering about OSU/WSU, why bother?

It's also a whole different America east of the Rockies than you west coasters are used to (and especially how coaches have to deal with the local fans).  Be careful what you wish for and I'm being pretty sincere about this.  That is why I said earlier that those OU fans want no part of the Pac-12 because they already have dealt with a PAC-esque fanbase in CU.  They know they will be dealing with 11 more PAC fanbases and if CU was more than enough for them, joining the Pac-12 would be pure lunacy.

This is a long term process and also a byproduct of the cultural difference between the Pac-12 and the likes of the B1G, Big 12, and SEC.  If the Pac-12 was more culturally similar to those conferences, there's a good chance the Pac-12 would be winning the money race.  The west is growing fast from all those people moving there and it doesn't mean they transfer their loyalties from B1G, Big 12, and SEC teams to the PAC.  The second or third generation of such fans are the key.  I know what I'm talking about because I am one of those people who decided to not follow my family's tradition of rooting for Oklahoma.  The Pac-12 will have its day on the top...just not today.

 

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There is no appeal to independence for Texas.  ESPN decided it was cheaper than a big 12 agreement.

the Longhorn networks carriage rates are declining.  ESPN is going to steer them into an enhanced SEC deal because that deal is actually a bad deal.

Texas said yes when ESPN moved to counter the PAC 12.  They are hurting because of it.

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7 hours ago, RAMification said:

FACT:   the P12 is in some trouble relative to it's Peers as it's "Rev. Distribution per Team/Yr" is lagging further & further behind the SEC ($10M), B10 ($7.5M), B12 ($5M) + projections show it to become even worse in '17 thru '19... and it's P12 Network is vastly lagging it's peers... and P12 has degenerated toward "the least Relevant of all P5's" over the past 12 years in Fball & MBB Championship Victories... and the acquisitions of Viewers across all P12 events within Colo & Utah are disappointing (from what I have heard).   http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/07/college-hotline-the-pac-12s-expanding-revenue-deficit-relative-to-sec-big-ten/

It looks as if the P10 may have made a strategic error in their growth plan to P12 & the P12 Network.   I believe they believe they must fix these disparities with their peers SOON.  At the heart of their Problems is the fact that they failed to acquire BOTH Flagship Universities in the states of Colorado & Utah, as they so wisely had acquired in their past expansions into Az, OR, Wash.  It's prevented the P12 from totally dominating the Fans & Media in each of these 2 large DMA states (large by Western standards).  After 4 yrs, CU & UU fans are diligent to watch their teams.... but only/mostly watching their teams when they play, but not watching nearly as much of the other P12 games/matches, not like the P12 is used to seeing among the viewers/fans in states of Or, Wash, Az .

In addition, the P12 has fallen drastically in competitive esteem (P12 & B10 used to be at the TOP), relevance (their best teams & draftees disappoint consistently), competitiveness (12 yrs since P12 has  offered a Nat'l Champ) & in TV Viewership (the P12 Network)... all of which affects Nation-wide TV & Media coverage, both inside & outside the local DMA's.... and eventually affects PROFITABILITY.

Practically speaking, the 2 Flagship model provides 2x's the # of PAC games within each State... thus immersing the Fans & Media within each state with 2x's the amount of games annually --- to read Articles, watch Local/Nat'l Media coverage of both State Flagships & their ggames... and even for the other Flagship's Fans to watch & root for/against their in-state rival team (yes there's huge fan cross-over viewership/support when facing outta-state Teams) vs. each of the P12 opponents.  This greatly improves the timeline for full CONVERSION of these new State fans, into P12 Fans, in Dominant Volumes, that the Media will recognize & shift coverage toward.   Today, the total population of fans in states of Colorado & Utah are quite FRACTURED (CU/CSU/AFA & UU/BYU/USU), and do not really have the opportunity to immerse themselves into the full "P12 Experience".  By consolidating the 2 Flagships,  P12 is consolidating this "Crossover" phenomena + the fact of having 2 games/yr for Utah fans to watch BOTH of their in-state teams take on USC, or WU, or Stanford, or UCLA, or WSU, or OSU.   Then gaining more Fans following all P12 Fball & MBB & Sport events.  Whether we're talking the old TV Net model, or the new Unbundled INet + TV Net model, I am assuming Viewership will still be a monetized profitably  

Great Rivalries make GREAT conferences.   The old P10 knew this, Scott is re-learning this.... as he watches the Strongest conferences (SEC & B10) Preserve/Nurture/Enhance/ADD to their Great Rivalries (PSU-OSU; PSU-UM; Neb-Wis; Neb-Iowa; PSU-Pitt).  He also cannot help but notice that the weakest conferences happen to be those which have lost the most Rivalries of National interest  -- the B12 Great Rivalries lost = OU-Neb, UT-TAM, Mizz-KU, CU-Neb.  

Well what Great Rivalries of National interest has the P10 failed to COOP & Acquire within it's Western "P12" configuration???   I'd suggest the Holy War & the Rocky Mountain Showdown.  Both Fan Bases have that Big Rivalry "hate/contempt" for the other team, that drives any rivalry... and yet (as already stated) each teams fan base will watch & root passionately For (or Against) their in-state Rival in almost every other P12 game.  That is Not true today.

My P12 expansion hypothesis is:

#1)  apart from a miracle, Scott will need to act & expand to 14 Fball Teams, before the 2025 GOR's open up.  He must fix his Competitiveness, Relevance, Viewership &  Profitability issues.... while making the P12 less vulnerable to its peers in the Long Term.

#2) Thus, I hypothesize that Scott will try to swing for the fences again by attempting to allure "a Powerhouse Pair" of teams away from another P5 Conference, specifically the B12.  He will FAIL.  How would the P12 afford to pay the Escape Fees... & which Powerhouse is going to jump to take $5M to $10M less (in UT's case $15M less) annually?   Combine that with the Small DMA's of states like Oklahoma, or regions like West Texas, or Kansas, or Iowa... there's not many markets that can offer 2M or more consistent incremental viewers of PAC 12 games.  The key one that may be available is Houston  --  split by #1 TAM, #2 UT, #3 UHouston (a huge DMA).   UHouston is an outlier (geographically & culturally), and is 70% commuter shcool,  it's not up to PAC standards... still may become crazily tempting even though the B12 won't even have them.  Or there's TCU & SMU angling for the DFW market.  I estimate the P12 (& SEC) will resist each of these outlier temptations.  

#3)  Therefore I'm gonna hypothesize Colo. State & BYU get COOP'd into the P12 by 2019.  P12 & Scott will realize the PAC can do more work in their own Backyard to Improve its Profitability.... by expanding it's Fanbase & DMA in it's existing Footprint ... thus making existing DMA's in Colorado & Utah 1.5x's to 2x's as efficient at producing larger volumes of incremental P12 Viewers & therefore boosting Rev $$$'s for P12 Net & Nat'l TV by 1M to 2M just in those 2 states.   This move also acquires 2 more Big Rivalries that were formerly of National Interest.  The Holy War & RMS have each reduced in National scope since being left further behind in $$$'s & competitiveness since 2012, however the P12 can further promote & nurture these great Rivalries back into the Nat'l Interest.  Then there's the old regional Rivalries between CSU - UU, as well as BYU-CSU.  Not National Level, but among the Fans of both states, those are Rival games.  And what about when BYU visits Stanford --- there may be RIOTS in the Streets annually !!!   :)

Such invites to CSU & BYU may be Fball only for both, Fball only for BYU, or an Associate Membership for BYU (5 games/yr like ND has w/ ACC)... in order to justify the " alot less $$$'s to the Invitees"... and/or in order to "Try Before Buy" (either or both invitees)... and/or to maintain some acceptable distance between the Borg & the Pac cultural snobs.  But if the P12 doesn't finally figure out how to "cost efficiently & effectively expand & improve itself" (become more Relevant & Competitive nationally), by using attractive G5's in the West, who already meet all their Academic Standards (as they have with UU).... then P12 will continue to fall further behind the B12/SEC/B10 (see the estimates for '17 - '19).  

The much abhorred by P12 schools, BYU, offers immediate & significant improvements for the P12 today.  CSU on the other hand is a "potential Help" to the P12 soon or later, but is viewed as "equal to WSU & OSU" in terms of potential.  So CSU will have a P12 worthy showcase  may have to prove such TALK before getting invited as a Full Member.  Beating OSU & CU this year would help.  We'll see.

Should the P12 simply not be able to stomach the Borg in any way, P12 may opt for the less optimal USU invite... leaving alot of devout Mormons across the West very disappointed.  

#4) I'm going to suggest that by 2024-2025....  P12 should know it's metrics of success & ROIs from it's Organic Growth that it recently applied to Colo (a BCS school) & Utah (a G5 school) + its experience with BYU ... and it's Partial Revenue-sharing acquisition strategy (whether Full, Fball only, Associate memberships)... and its success with acquiring, nurturing, growing 2 more Big Rivalries of Nat'l interest.  It will also know the viability of acquiring a Powerhouse Pair from another P5 Conference.  If the Powerhouse acquisition is still a FAIL.......

I hypothesize that P12 will move to acquire the  growing state of Nevada (UNLV 1st, then UNR later after a Stadium upgrade).  

And depending on how successful (or not) the "Assoc. Member" thing is with BYU... and if Boise continues it great Winning Ways... the P12 will figure a way to COOP Boise into the P12's orbit (getting around those pesky Academic Standards).  Should Boise & BYU end up in the P12 together, that Rivalry could be further nurtured & grown by the P12.  

I'm gonna guess the P12 may reach out to the U of Hawaii which  may get COOP'd as well... once P12's "Associate" or "Fball only" membership is digested more fully.  

NOTE:  I'm trying to be as agnostic & as objective as possible in my thinking.  Feel free to correct me where I fail in objectivity w/i these hypothesis.

 

You think I'm going to read all that stuff, forget it. Just summarize the whole thing and say that now the PAC12 and the Big12 are going to have to duke it out to get CSU. 

Wait, did I just see you mention Boise and BYU as potential schools? You just lost all credibility. The PAC recruits academics first and foremost. Athletics are an after thought. 

kat.jpg

 

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I believe the major roadblock to further P12 expansion is scheduling.  The current setup is optimal for schools in the North to play the California schools as much as possible.   This is also why the 9 game conference schedule will never be adjusted. 

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19 hours ago, RAMification said:

FACT:   the P12 is in some trouble relative to it's Peers as it's "Rev. Distribution per Team/Yr" is lagging further & further behind the SEC ($10M), B10 ($7.5M), B12 ($5M) + projections show it to become even worse in '17 thru '19... and it's P12 Network is vastly lagging it's peers... and P12 has degenerated toward "the least Relevant of all P5's" over the past 12 years in Fball & MBB Championship Victories... and the acquisitions of Viewers across all P12 events within Colo & Utah are disappointing (from what I have heard).   http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/07/college-hotline-the-pac-12s-expanding-revenue-deficit-relative-to-sec-big-ten/

It looks as if the P10 may have made a strategic error in their growth plan to P12 & the P12 Network.   I believe they believe they must fix these disparities with their peers SOON.  At the heart of their Problems is the fact that they failed to acquire BOTH Flagship Universities in the states of Colorado & Utah, as they so wisely had acquired in their past expansions into Az, OR, Wash.  It's prevented the P12 from totally dominating the Fans & Media in each of these 2 large DMA states (large by Western standards).  After 4 yrs, CU & UU fans are diligent to watch their teams.... but only/mostly watching their teams when they play, but not watching nearly as much of the other P12 games/matches, not like the P12 is used to seeing among the viewers/fans in states of Or, Wash, Az .

In addition, the P12 has fallen drastically in competitive esteem (P12 & B10 used to be at the TOP), relevance (their best teams & draftees disappoint consistently), competitiveness (12 yrs since P12 has  offered a Nat'l Champ) & in TV Viewership (the P12 Network)... all of which affects Nation-wide TV & Media coverage, both inside & outside the local DMA's.... and eventually affects PROFITABILITY.

Practically speaking, the 2 Flagship model provides 2x's the # of PAC games within each State... thus immersing the Fans & Media within each state with 2x's the amount of games annually --- to read Articles, watch Local/Nat'l Media coverage of both State Flagships & their ggames... and even for the other Flagship's Fans to watch & root for/against their in-state rival team (yes there's huge fan cross-over viewership/support when facing outta-state Teams) vs. each of the P12 opponents.  This greatly improves the timeline for full CONVERSION of these new State fans, into P12 Fans, in Dominant Volumes, that the Media will recognize & shift coverage toward.   Today, the total population of fans in states of Colorado & Utah are quite FRACTURED (CU/CSU/AFA & UU/BYU/USU), and do not really have the opportunity to immerse themselves into the full "P12 Experience".  By consolidating the 2 Flagships,  P12 is consolidating this "Crossover" phenomena + the fact of having 2 games/yr for Utah fans to watch BOTH of their in-state teams take on USC, or WU, or Stanford, or UCLA, or WSU, or OSU.   Then gaining more Fans following all P12 Fball & MBB & Sport events.  Whether we're talking the old TV Net model, or the new Unbundled INet + TV Net model, I am assuming Viewership will still be a monetized profitably  

Great Rivalries make GREAT conferences.   The old P10 knew this, Scott is re-learning this.... as he watches the Strongest conferences (SEC & B10) Preserve/Nurture/Enhance/ADD to their Great Rivalries (PSU-OSU; PSU-UM; Neb-Wis; Neb-Iowa; PSU-Pitt).  He also cannot help but notice that the weakest conferences happen to be those which have lost the most Rivalries of National interest  -- the B12 Great Rivalries lost = OU-Neb, UT-TAM, Mizz-KU, CU-Neb.  

Well what Great Rivalries of National interest has the P10 failed to COOP & Acquire within it's Western "P12" configuration???   I'd suggest the Holy War & the Rocky Mountain Showdown.  Both Fan Bases have that Big Rivalry "hate/contempt" for the other team, that drives any rivalry... and yet (as already stated) each teams fan base will watch & root passionately For (or Against) their in-state Rival in almost every other P12 game.  That is Not true today.

My P12 expansion hypothesis is:

#1)  apart from a miracle, Scott will need to act & expand to 14 Fball Teams, before the 2025 GOR's open up.  He must fix his Competitiveness, Relevance, Viewership &  Profitability issues.... while making the P12 less vulnerable to its peers in the Long Term.

#2) Thus, I hypothesize that Scott will try to swing for the fences again by attempting to allure "a Powerhouse Pair" of teams away from another P5 Conference, specifically the B12.  He will FAIL.  How would the P12 afford to pay the Escape Fees... & which Powerhouse is going to jump to take $5M to $10M less (in UT's case $15M less) annually?   Combine that with the Small DMA's of states like Oklahoma, or regions like West Texas, or Kansas, or Iowa... there's not many markets that can offer 2M or more consistent incremental viewers of PAC 12 games.  The key one that may be available is Houston  --  split by #1 TAM, #2 UT, #3 UHouston (a huge DMA).   UHouston is an outlier (geographically & culturally), and is 70% commuter shcool,  it's not up to PAC standards... still may become crazily tempting even though the B12 won't even have them.  Or there's TCU & SMU angling for the DFW market.  I estimate the P12 (& SEC) will resist each of these outlier temptations.  

#3)  Therefore I'm gonna hypothesize Colo. State & BYU get COOP'd into the P12 by 2019.  P12 & Scott will realize the PAC can do more work in their own Backyard to Improve its Profitability.... by expanding it's Fanbase & DMA in it's existing Footprint ... thus making existing DMA's in Colorado & Utah 1.5x's to 2x's as efficient at producing larger volumes of incremental P12 Viewers & therefore boosting Rev $$$'s for P12 Net & Nat'l TV by 1M to 2M just in those 2 states.   This move also acquires 2 more Big Rivalries that were formerly of National Interest.  The Holy War & RMS have each reduced in National scope since being left further behind in $$$'s & competitiveness since 2012, however the P12 can further promote & nurture these great Rivalries back into the Nat'l Interest.  Then there's the old regional Rivalries between CSU - UU, as well as BYU-CSU.  Not National Level, but among the Fans of both states, those are Rival games.  And what about when BYU visits Stanford --- there may be RIOTS in the Streets annually !!!   :)

Such invites to CSU & BYU may be Fball only for both, Fball only for BYU, or an Associate Membership for BYU (5 games/yr like ND has w/ ACC)... in order to justify the " alot less $$$'s to the Invitees"... and/or in order to "Try Before Buy" (either or both invitees)... and/or to maintain some acceptable distance between the Borg & the Pac cultural snobs.  But if the P12 doesn't finally figure out how to "cost efficiently & effectively expand & improve itself" (become more Relevant & Competitive nationally), by using attractive G5's in the West, who already meet all their Academic Standards (as they have with UU).... then P12 will continue to fall further behind the B12/SEC/B10 (see the estimates for '17 - '19).  

The much abhorred by P12 schools, BYU, offers immediate & significant improvements for the P12 today.  CSU on the other hand is a "potential Help" to the P12 soon or later, but is viewed as "equal to WSU & OSU" in terms of potential.  So CSU will have a P12 worthy showcase  may have to prove such TALK before getting invited as a Full Member.  Beating OSU & CU this year would help.  We'll see.

Should the P12 simply not be able to stomach the Borg in any way, P12 may opt for the less optimal USU invite... leaving alot of devout Mormons across the West very disappointed.  

#4) I'm going to suggest that by 2024-2025....  P12 should know it's metrics of success & ROIs from it's Organic Growth that it recently applied to Colo (a BCS school) & Utah (a G5 school) + its experience with BYU ... and it's Partial Revenue-sharing acquisition strategy (whether Full, Fball only, Associate memberships)... and its success with acquiring, nurturing, growing 2 more Big Rivalries of Nat'l interest.  It will also know the viability of acquiring a Powerhouse Pair from another P5 Conference.  If the Powerhouse acquisition is still a FAIL.......

I hypothesize that P12 will move to acquire the  growing state of Nevada (UNLV 1st, then UNR later after a Stadium upgrade).  

And depending on how successful (or not) the "Assoc. Member" thing is with BYU... and if Boise continues it great Winning Ways... the P12 will figure a way to COOP Boise into the P12's orbit (getting around those pesky Academic Standards).  Should Boise & BYU end up in the P12 together, that Rivalry could be further nurtured & grown by the P12.  

I'm gonna guess the P12 may reach out to the U of Hawaii which  may get COOP'd as well... once P12's "Associate" or "Fball only" membership is digested more fully.  

NOTE:  I'm trying to be as agnostic & as objective as possible in my thinking.  Feel free to correct me where I fail in objectivity w/i these hypothesis.

 

This might be the most words and time spent only to be completely wrong since Neville Chamberlain...

Image result for h.l. mencken quotes

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17 hours ago, AztecSU said:

Only thing that will happen is 2-4 teams leaving the MW for the AAC because this conference has no real exit fee and the AAC already gets better ratings with bigger schools in larger markets. 

PACs only true hope for expansion is MW teams, which is exactly why they will hold out and not expand until forced. 

What you said.

Among the reasons there is no exit fee is so many of its members want out. None are happy about being here except Whyoming, SJSU, USU and maybe UNR. Boise, UNM and AFA are also fine with the MWC PROVIDED nobody else leaves. However, it's quite obvious that after the B12 implosion, the B12 leftovers are going to poach some MWC schools. In the unlikely event CSU and AFA are not among them, those schools will simply bail for the AAC. Once that happens most or all of the members of the Worst division not named SJSU which aren't picked up by the nB12 are going to leave too, either by creating a new conference or by going indy for football or just dropping that sport and joining the BigWest for Olys or by doing that and joining the BigSky for football only.

Bottom line is that if the MWC exists at all a decade from now it will be about as recognizable to the present MWC as the 2011 WAC was to the 1998 WAC.

Boom goes the dynamite.

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20 hours ago, RAMification said:

FACT:   the P12 is in some trouble relative to it's Peers as it's "Rev. Distribution per Team/Yr" is lagging further & further behind the SEC ($10M), B10 ($7.5M), B12 ($5M) + projections show it to become even worse in '17 thru '19... and it's P12 Network is vastly lagging it's peers... and P12 has degenerated toward "the least Relevant of all P5's" over the past 12 years in Fball & MBB Championship Victories... and the acquisitions of Viewers across all P12 events within Colo & Utah are disappointing (from what I have heard).   http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/07/college-hotline-the-pac-12s-expanding-revenue-deficit-relative-to-sec-big-ten/

It looks as if the P10 may have made a strategic error in their growth plan to P12 & the P12 Network.   I believe they believe they must fix these disparities with their peers SOON.  At the heart of their Problems is the fact that they failed to acquire BOTH Flagship Universities in the states of Colorado & Utah, as they so wisely had acquired in their past expansions into Az, OR, Wash.  It's prevented the P12 from totally dominating the Fans & Media in each of these 2 large DMA states (large by Western standards).  After 4 yrs, CU & UU fans are diligent to watch their teams.... but only/mostly watching their teams when they play, but not watching nearly as much of the other P12 games/matches, not like the P12 is used to seeing among the viewers/fans in states of Or, Wash, Az .

In addition, the P12 has fallen drastically in competitive esteem (P12 & B10 used to be at the TOP), relevance (their best teams & draftees disappoint consistently), competitiveness (12 yrs since P12 has  offered a Nat'l Champ) & in TV Viewership (the P12 Network)... all of which affects Nation-wide TV & Media coverage, both inside & outside the local DMA's.... and eventually affects PROFITABILITY.

Practically speaking, the 2 Flagship model provides 2x's the # of PAC games within each State... thus immersing the Fans & Media within each state with 2x's the amount of games annually --- to read Articles, watch Local/Nat'l Media coverage of both State Flagships & their ggames... and even for the other Flagship's Fans to watch & root for/against their in-state rival team (yes there's huge fan cross-over viewership/support when facing outta-state Teams) vs. each of the P12 opponents.  This greatly improves the timeline for full CONVERSION of these new State fans, into P12 Fans, in Dominant Volumes, that the Media will recognize & shift coverage toward.   Today, the total population of fans in states of Colorado & Utah are quite FRACTURED (CU/CSU/AFA & UU/BYU/USU), and do not really have the opportunity to immerse themselves into the full "P12 Experience".  By consolidating the 2 Flagships,  P12 is consolidating this "Crossover" phenomena + the fact of having 2 games/yr for Utah fans to watch BOTH of their in-state teams take on USC, or WU, or Stanford, or UCLA, or WSU, or OSU.   Then gaining more Fans following all P12 Fball & MBB & Sport events.  Whether we're talking the old TV Net model, or the new Unbundled INet + TV Net model, I am assuming Viewership will still be a monetized profitably  

Great Rivalries make GREAT conferences.   The old P10 knew this, Scott is re-learning this.... as he watches the Strongest conferences (SEC & B10) Preserve/Nurture/Enhance/ADD to their Great Rivalries (PSU-OSU; PSU-UM; Neb-Wis; Neb-Iowa; PSU-Pitt).  He also cannot help but notice that the weakest conferences happen to be those which have lost the most Rivalries of National interest  -- the B12 Great Rivalries lost = OU-Neb, UT-TAM, Mizz-KU, CU-Neb.  

Well what Great Rivalries of National interest has the P10 failed to COOP & Acquire within it's Western "P12" configuration???   I'd suggest the Holy War & the Rocky Mountain Showdown.  Both Fan Bases have that Big Rivalry "hate/contempt" for the other team, that drives any rivalry... and yet (as already stated) each teams fan base will watch & root passionately For (or Against) their in-state Rival in almost every other P12 game.  That is Not true today.

My P12 expansion hypothesis is:

#1)  apart from a miracle, Scott will need to act & expand to 14 Fball Teams, before the 2025 GOR's open up.  He must fix his Competitiveness, Relevance, Viewership &  Profitability issues.... while making the P12 less vulnerable to its peers in the Long Term.

#2) Thus, I hypothesize that Scott will try to swing for the fences again by attempting to allure "a Powerhouse Pair" of teams away from another P5 Conference, specifically the B12.  He will FAIL.  How would the P12 afford to pay the Escape Fees... & which Powerhouse is going to jump to take $5M to $10M less (in UT's case $15M less) annually?   Combine that with the Small DMA's of states like Oklahoma, or regions like West Texas, or Kansas, or Iowa... there's not many markets that can offer 2M or more consistent incremental viewers of PAC 12 games.  The key one that may be available is Houston  --  split by #1 TAM, #2 UT, #3 UHouston (a huge DMA).   UHouston is an outlier (geographically & culturally), and is 70% commuter shcool,  it's not up to PAC standards... still may become crazily tempting even though the B12 won't even have them.  Or there's TCU & SMU angling for the DFW market.  I estimate the P12 (& SEC) will resist each of these outlier temptations.  

#3)  Therefore I'm gonna hypothesize Colo. State & BYU get COOP'd into the P12 by 2019.  P12 & Scott will realize the PAC can do more work in their own Backyard to Improve its Profitability.... by expanding it's Fanbase & DMA in it's existing Footprint ... thus making existing DMA's in Colorado & Utah 1.5x's to 2x's as efficient at producing larger volumes of incremental P12 Viewers & therefore boosting Rev $$$'s for P12 Net & Nat'l TV by 1M to 2M just in those 2 states.   This move also acquires 2 more Big Rivalries that were formerly of National Interest.  The Holy War & RMS have each reduced in National scope since being left further behind in $$$'s & competitiveness since 2012, however the P12 can further promote & nurture these great Rivalries back into the Nat'l Interest.  Then there's the old regional Rivalries between CSU - UU, as well as BYU-CSU.  Not National Level, but among the Fans of both states, those are Rival games.  And what about when BYU visits Stanford --- there may be RIOTS in the Streets annually !!!   :)

Such invites to CSU & BYU may be Fball only for both, Fball only for BYU, or an Associate Membership for BYU (5 games/yr like ND has w/ ACC)... in order to justify the " alot less $$$'s to the Invitees"... and/or in order to "Try Before Buy" (either or both invitees)... and/or to maintain some acceptable distance between the Borg & the Pac cultural snobs.  But if the P12 doesn't finally figure out how to "cost efficiently & effectively expand & improve itself" (become more Relevant & Competitive nationally), by using attractive G5's in the West, who already meet all their Academic Standards (as they have with UU).... then P12 will continue to fall further behind the B12/SEC/B10 (see the estimates for '17 - '19).  

The much abhorred by P12 schools, BYU, offers immediate & significant improvements for the P12 today.  CSU on the other hand is a "potential Help" to the P12 soon or later, but is viewed as "equal to WSU & OSU" in terms of potential.  So CSU will have a P12 worthy showcase  may have to prove such TALK before getting invited as a Full Member.  Beating OSU & CU this year would help.  We'll see.

Should the P12 simply not be able to stomach the Borg in any way, P12 may opt for the less optimal USU invite... leaving alot of devout Mormons across the West very disappointed.  

#4) I'm going to suggest that by 2024-2025....  P12 should know it's metrics of success & ROIs from it's Organic Growth that it recently applied to Colo (a BCS school) & Utah (a G5 school) + its experience with BYU ... and it's Partial Revenue-sharing acquisition strategy (whether Full, Fball only, Associate memberships)... and its success with acquiring, nurturing, growing 2 more Big Rivalries of Nat'l interest.  It will also know the viability of acquiring a Powerhouse Pair from another P5 Conference.  If the Powerhouse acquisition is still a FAIL.......

I hypothesize that P12 will move to acquire the  growing state of Nevada (UNLV 1st, then UNR later after a Stadium upgrade).  

And depending on how successful (or not) the "Assoc. Member" thing is with BYU... and if Boise continues it great Winning Ways... the P12 will figure a way to COOP Boise into the P12's orbit (getting around those pesky Academic Standards).  Should Boise & BYU end up in the P12 together, that Rivalry could be further nurtured & grown by the P12.  

I'm gonna guess the P12 may reach out to the U of Hawaii which  may get COOP'd as well... once P12's "Associate" or "Fball only" membership is digested more fully.  

NOTE:  I'm trying to be as agnostic & as objective as possible in my thinking.  Feel free to correct me where I fail in objectivity w/i these hypothesis.

 

You lost me at co-flagships.  No such thing.  Some states separated the Morrill Act land-grant university from the flagship arts & sciences university, but that doesn't make them co-flagships.

SteelCityBlue

November 24th, 2018 at 9:10 PM ^

I'm looking forward to a new head coach who isn't a cud-chewing autistic retard.

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55 minutes ago, Chad Sexington said:

Nope, none of it. 

But, the PAC is in trouble, man!

 

2 minutes ago, Mano said:

Yawn.

Wake me up when it is football season.

Amen.  I hate this time of year.  NBA is basically over.  Boreball is in full swing.  Golf is on TV every Sunday.  I need it to be the end of August.

Image result for jim mcmahon with lavell edwardsImage result for byu logoImage result for byu boise state end zone hail maryc07489bb8bb7f5bad3672877f8b04f34.jpg

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1 minute ago, Jack Bauer said:

But, the PAC is in trouble, man!

 

Amen.  I hate this time of year.  NBA is basically over.  Boreball is in full swing.  Golf is on TV every Sunday.  I need it to be the end of August.

?

"If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, are you still a moron?"

"Give me a Sandwich and a Douchebag and there's nothing I can't do!"

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 It is funny that fans of MWC schools think that a trip to the P-5 is all that is needed to get to the promised land. Some of these schools are at best middle of this conference, some can not win in this league

One looks at budgets and finds that fan support  at these schools is not strong, but I guess if one moves to the P- 12 then people will pay millions more in donations to watch you lose in football, and basketball.

Utah and TCU were very strong in football before they got invited to move up, if I remember both had new on campus stadiums planned or built.

Just remember that the B-12 passed on adding any school just a short time ago, perhaps instead of looking for others to build our programs up, we ought to get better, and become the Utah, TCU and yes BYU of the current MWC first. BSU is the only MWC school that has ever done what is needed to get a possible invite up.

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32 minutes ago, ole blu dude said:

 It is funny that fans of MWC schools think that a trip to the P-5 is all that is needed to get to the promised land. Some of these schools are at best middle of this conference, some can not win in this league

One looks at budgets and finds that fan support  at these schools is not strong, but I guess if one moves to the P- 12 then people will pay millions more in donations to watch you lose in football, and basketball.

Utah and TCU were very strong in football before they got invited to move up, if I remember both had new on campus stadiums planned or built.

Just remember that the B-12 passed on adding any school just a short time ago, perhaps instead of looking for others to build our programs up, we ought to get better, and become the Utah, TCU and yes BYU of the current MWC first. BSU is the only MWC school that has ever done what is needed to get a possible invite up.

You are correct, but that's past tense.  What have you done lately?        

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22 hours ago, RAMification said:

FACT:   the P12 is in some trouble relative to it's Peers as it's "Rev. Distribution per Team/Yr" is lagging further & further behind the SEC ($10M), B10 ($7.5M), B12 ($5M) + projections show it to become even worse in '17 thru '19... and it's P12 Network is vastly lagging it's peers... and P12 has degenerated toward "the least Relevant of all P5's" over the past 12 years in Fball & MBB Championship Victories... and the acquisitions of Viewers across all P12 events within Colo & Utah are disappointing (from what I have heard).   http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/07/college-hotline-the-pac-12s-expanding-revenue-deficit-relative-to-sec-big-ten/

It looks as if the P10 may have made a strategic error in their growth plan to P12 & the P12 Network.   I believe they believe they must fix these disparities with their peers SOON.  At the heart of their Problems is the fact that they failed to acquire BOTH Flagship Universities in the states of Colorado & Utah, as they so wisely had acquired in their past expansions into Az, OR, Wash.  It's prevented the P12 from totally dominating the Fans & Media in each of these 2 large DMA states (large by Western standards).  After 4 yrs, CU & UU fans are diligent to watch their teams.... but only/mostly watching their teams when they play, but not watching nearly as much of the other P12 games/matches, not like the P12 is used to seeing among the viewers/fans in states of Or, Wash, Az .

In addition, the P12 has fallen drastically in competitive esteem (P12 & B10 used to be at the TOP), relevance (their best teams & draftees disappoint consistently), competitiveness (12 yrs since P12 has  offered a Nat'l Champ) & in TV Viewership (the P12 Network)... all of which affects Nation-wide TV & Media coverage, both inside & outside the local DMA's.... and eventually affects PROFITABILITY.

Practically speaking, the 2 Flagship model provides 2x's the # of PAC games within each State... thus immersing the Fans & Media within each state with 2x's the amount of games annually --- to read Articles, watch Local/Nat'l Media coverage of both State Flagships & their ggames... and even for the other Flagship's Fans to watch & root for/against their in-state rival team (yes there's huge fan cross-over viewership/support when facing outta-state Teams) vs. each of the P12 opponents.  This greatly improves the timeline for full CONVERSION of these new State fans, into P12 Fans, in Dominant Volumes, that the Media will recognize & shift coverage toward.   Today, the total population of fans in states of Colorado & Utah are quite FRACTURED (CU/CSU/AFA & UU/BYU/USU), and do not really have the opportunity to immerse themselves into the full "P12 Experience".  By consolidating the 2 Flagships,  P12 is consolidating this "Crossover" phenomena + the fact of having 2 games/yr for Utah fans to watch BOTH of their in-state teams take on USC, or WU, or Stanford, or UCLA, or WSU, or OSU.   Then gaining more Fans following all P12 Fball & MBB & Sport events.  Whether we're talking the old TV Net model, or the new Unbundled INet + TV Net model, I am assuming Viewership will still be a monetized profitably  

Great Rivalries make GREAT conferences.   The old P10 knew this, Scott is re-learning this.... as he watches the Strongest conferences (SEC & B10) Preserve/Nurture/Enhance/ADD to their Great Rivalries (PSU-OSU; PSU-UM; Neb-Wis; Neb-Iowa; PSU-Pitt).  He also cannot help but notice that the weakest conferences happen to be those which have lost the most Rivalries of National interest  -- the B12 Great Rivalries lost = OU-Neb, UT-TAM, Mizz-KU, CU-Neb.  

Well what Great Rivalries of National interest has the P10 failed to COOP & Acquire within it's Western "P12" configuration???   I'd suggest the Holy War & the Rocky Mountain Showdown.  Both Fan Bases have that Big Rivalry "hate/contempt" for the other team, that drives any rivalry... and yet (as already stated) each teams fan base will watch & root passionately For (or Against) their in-state Rival in almost every other P12 game.  That is Not true today.

My P12 expansion hypothesis is:

#1)  apart from a miracle, Scott will need to act & expand to 14 Fball Teams, before the 2025 GOR's open up.  He must fix his Competitiveness, Relevance, Viewership &  Profitability issues.... while making the P12 less vulnerable to its peers in the Long Term.

#2) Thus, I hypothesize that Scott will try to swing for the fences again by attempting to allure "a Powerhouse Pair" of teams away from another P5 Conference, specifically the B12.  He will FAIL.  How would the P12 afford to pay the Escape Fees... & which Powerhouse is going to jump to take $5M to $10M less (in UT's case $15M less) annually?   Combine that with the Small DMA's of states like Oklahoma, or regions like West Texas, or Kansas, or Iowa... there's not many markets that can offer 2M or more consistent incremental viewers of PAC 12 games.  The key one that may be available is Houston  --  split by #1 TAM, #2 UT, #3 UHouston (a huge DMA).   UHouston is an outlier (geographically & culturally), and is 70% commuter shcool,  it's not up to PAC standards... still may become crazily tempting even though the B12 won't even have them.  Or there's TCU & SMU angling for the DFW market.  I estimate the P12 (& SEC) will resist each of these outlier temptations.  

#3)  Therefore I'm gonna hypothesize Colo. State & BYU get COOP'd into the P12 by 2019.  P12 & Scott will realize the PAC can do more work in their own Backyard to Improve its Profitability.... by expanding it's Fanbase & DMA in it's existing Footprint ... thus making existing DMA's in Colorado & Utah 1.5x's to 2x's as efficient at producing larger volumes of incremental P12 Viewers & therefore boosting Rev $$$'s for P12 Net & Nat'l TV by 1M to 2M just in those 2 states.   This move also acquires 2 more Big Rivalries that were formerly of National Interest.  The Holy War & RMS have each reduced in National scope since being left further behind in $$$'s & competitiveness since 2012, however the P12 can further promote & nurture these great Rivalries back into the Nat'l Interest.  Then there's the old regional Rivalries between CSU - UU, as well as BYU-CSU.  Not National Level, but among the Fans of both states, those are Rival games.  And what about when BYU visits Stanford --- there may be RIOTS in the Streets annually !!!   :)

Such invites to CSU & BYU may be Fball only for both, Fball only for BYU, or an Associate Membership for BYU (5 games/yr like ND has w/ ACC)... in order to justify the " alot less $$$'s to the Invitees"... and/or in order to "Try Before Buy" (either or both invitees)... and/or to maintain some acceptable distance between the Borg & the Pac cultural snobs.  But if the P12 doesn't finally figure out how to "cost efficiently & effectively expand & improve itself" (become more Relevant & Competitive nationally), by using attractive G5's in the West, who already meet all their Academic Standards (as they have with UU).... then P12 will continue to fall further behind the B12/SEC/B10 (see the estimates for '17 - '19).  

The much abhorred by P12 schools, BYU, offers immediate & significant improvements for the P12 today.  CSU on the other hand is a "potential Help" to the P12 soon or later, but is viewed as "equal to WSU & OSU" in terms of potential.  So CSU will have a P12 worthy showcase  may have to prove such TALK before getting invited as a Full Member.  Beating OSU & CU this year would help.  We'll see.

Should the P12 simply not be able to stomach the Borg in any way, P12 may opt for the less optimal USU invite... leaving alot of devout Mormons across the West very disappointed.  

#4) I'm going to suggest that by 2024-2025....  P12 should know it's metrics of success & ROIs from it's Organic Growth that it recently applied to Colo (a BCS school) & Utah (a G5 school) + its experience with BYU ... and it's Partial Revenue-sharing acquisition strategy (whether Full, Fball only, Associate memberships)... and its success with acquiring, nurturing, growing 2 more Big Rivalries of Nat'l interest.  It will also know the viability of acquiring a Powerhouse Pair from another P5 Conference.  If the Powerhouse acquisition is still a FAIL.......

I hypothesize that P12 will move to acquire the  growing state of Nevada (UNLV 1st, then UNR later after a Stadium upgrade).  

And depending on how successful (or not) the "Assoc. Member" thing is with BYU... and if Boise continues it great Winning Ways... the P12 will figure a way to COOP Boise into the P12's orbit (getting around those pesky Academic Standards).  Should Boise & BYU end up in the P12 together, that Rivalry could be further nurtured & grown by the P12.  

I'm gonna guess the P12 may reach out to the U of Hawaii which  may get COOP'd as well... once P12's "Associate" or "Fball only" membership is digested more fully.  

NOTE:  I'm trying to be as agnostic & as objective as possible in my thinking.  Feel free to correct me where I fail in objectivity w/i these hypothesis.

 

I think it will be Fresno State and SDSU.

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