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RAMification

a funny article re OU & Conference jumping

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1 hour ago, RAMification said:

Very accurate... in a way.  But I still believe that OU wants to straighten out the B12 & stay where they have it good ... if necessary w/o UT.

There is no P5 viable Big XII without UT.  If either UT or OU depart the other will as well and they may take 1-2 other Big XII teams with them.

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Can we debate this premise you've laid out?  And I understand that removing UT would have significant ramifications for the B12 & OU.  So I guess we're debating whether those ramifications w/b "INSURMOUNTABLE" causing the Death of the B12, or "SURMOUNTABLE".  

BTW, I believe that if UT were to move out of B12, they would do so as an Indy w/ a Scheduling Association w/ B12 (like ND is to ACC).  Why? I believe they are viewed as a "pariah" who ruins every conference they join (even the one they themselves formed), and they have zero loyalty, thus no invites from ACC, P12, SEC, B10.  And this also highly debate-able.

Back to the original Debate-able stuff:

1) You don't believe the B12 teams haven't done just swell over the last 6 years, while UTx has been in the dregs of Fball & MBB mediocrity??   Actually, the B12 has done quite well w/o UT being rankable even within the Top #25. That doesn't lend much support to your premise.

2) Do you believe that a B12 would be viewed as "non-P5 caliber" with consistently successful Fball programs like OU, OSU, TCU, KSU, WVU, TTU & Baylor (currently in trouble, for now), consistently Ranked in the Top #5, #10, & #25 ???    For MBB there's KU, WVU, OSU, TCU, OU, ISU, KSU etc.   That's plenty of successful teams to have 2 or 3 teams in the Top #5 or 10 of each sport, consistently.  

3) With UT outta the B12 (and all the craziness UT brought to the formerly, very stable B8), I believe Neb has already shown interest & Mizzo might be interested in the possibility of returning.  I believe TA&M (even Ark. as a long-shot) may even become interested.  In each case -- UT's presence in the B12 (and SWC) was the #1 reason each school removed themselves from being in-League w/ UT.  (not so much for Mizzo).  

With this in mind it further makes it difficult/impossible for UT to join the SEC or B10 (TA&M, Ark & Neb would never all it).  The ACC is the last viable Option... probably as an Affiliate just like ND?   I'd bet the ACC is tooooo smart & conservative enough to avoid the "bog" that is UT as a Full-Member.

4) The B12 would lose "the Eyes of Texas" TV fan base to a large extent, and that would hurt TV negotiations (but what is that gonna be in 10 years?).  Still, about 30-40% of UT Fans will still follow B12 Fball closely.  Even more would follow closely if UT is still Affiliated w/ the B12 via scheduling (60% to 70%).  But If UT becomes a Full-Member in another Conference, that % goes down to about 15% who would still follow B12 closely.  (Just my estimates, based on living in Austin & growing up in OKC).

5) The B12 has other Options it can pull if UT leaves, which can/will shore up its viability & nation-wide interest level.  WVU still needs a Travel Partner (Cincy).  The nearby contiguous West still holds some great Competition & some large untapped markets (CSU, UNM) & 1 state over is BYU & Boise.  Then there's the thought of the B12 making a Power move to host AFA-Army-Navy (Army & Navy are also near by WVU... thus not much need for Cincy).

The B12 has plenty of staying Power in the P5, IMHO, without UT as a Full Member.  Your thoughts???

 

 

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17 minutes ago, RAMification said:

Can we debate this premise you've laid out?  And I understand that removing UT would have significant ramifications for the B12 & OU.  So I guess we're debating whether those ramifications w/b "INSURMOUNTABLE" causing the Death of the B12, or "SURMOUNTABLE".  

BTW, I believe that if UT were to move out of B12, they would do so as an Indy w/ a Scheduling Association w/ B12 (like ND is to ACC).  Why? I believe they are viewed as a "pariah" who ruins every conference they join (even the one they themselves formed), and they have zero loyalty, thus no invites from ACC, P12, SEC, B10.  And this also highly debate-able.

Back to the original Debate-able stuff:

1) You don't believe the B12 teams haven't done just swell over the last 6 years, while UTx has been in the dregs of Fball & MBB mediocrity??   Actually, the B12 has done quite well w/o UT being rankable even within the Top #25. That doesn't lend much support to your premise.

2) Do you believe that a B12 would be viewed as "non-P5 caliber" with consistently successful Fball programs like OU, OSU, TCU, KSU, WVU, TTU & Baylor (currently in trouble, for now), consistently Ranked in the Top #5, #10, & #25 ???    For MBB there's KU, WVU, OSU, TCU, OU, ISU, KSU etc.   That's plenty of successful teams to have 2 or 3 teams in the Top #5 or 10 of each sport, consistently.  

3) With UT outta the B12 (and all the craziness UT brought to the formerly, very stable B8), I believe Neb has already shown interest & Mizzo might be interested in the possibility of returning.  I believe TA&M (even Ark. as a long-shot) may even become interested.  In each case -- UT's presence in the B12 (and SWC) was the #1 reason each school removed themselves from being in-League w/ UT.  (not so much for Mizzo).  

With this in mind it further makes it difficult/impossible for UT to join the SEC or B10 (TA&M, Ark & Neb would never all it).  The ACC is the last viable Option... probably as an Affiliate just like ND?   I'd bet the ACC is tooooo smart & conservative enough to avoid the "bog" that is UT as a Full-Member.

4) The B12 would lose "the Eyes of Texas" TV fan base to a large extent, and that would hurt TV negotiations (but what is that gonna be in 10 years?).  Still, about 30-40% of UT Fans will still follow B12 Fball closely.  Even more would follow closely if UT is still Affiliated w/ the B12 via scheduling (60% to 70%).  But If UT becomes a Full-Member in another Conference, that % goes down to about 15% who would still follow B12 closely.  (Just my estimates, based on living in Austin & growing up in OKC).

5) The B12 has other Options it can pull if UT leaves, which can/will shore up its viability & nation-wide interest level.  WVU still needs a Travel Partner (Cincy).  The nearby contiguous West still holds some great Competition & some large untapped markets (CSU, UNM) & 1 state over is BYU & Boise.  Then there's the thought of the B12 making a Power move to host AFA-Army-Navy (Army & Navy are also near by WVU... thus not much need for Cincy).

The B12 has plenty of staying Power in the P5, IMHO, without UT as a Full Member.  Your thoughts???

 

 

My thoughts are the same as my original reply.  I don't see OU staying in a Big XII without UT.  Conversely, UT will not stay in a Big XII without OU.  Whomever goes first the other goes sometime thereafter.  If neither goes the Big XII maintains the status quo until such a time if/when significantly more revenue or more national relevance (ie playoff bids) can be made elsewhere.  One could argue from a revenue standpoint that day has already come.  We'll see what the next round of media deals are worth.

I never said UT leaving on it's own kills the P5 status of the Big XII.  What I said is OU will leave if UT leaves and the two of them leaving will kill the Big XII's P5 status.  It's also likely that OU takes OSU with them and KU goes to the B1G.  That doesn't leave much behind to generate revenue and expansion will not replace it.  There are no guarantees and I could be all wrong but this is how I see it.

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